The Enerplus Fox Pad

Locator: 44735B.   

Updates

March 5, 2024: these Fox wells have been drilled; waiting to be completed. They were "pressure-tested" in January, 2024 -- a requirement before they can be fracked.

Original Post 

We never showed the map for this pad, so I thought it might be something we could do tonight.

From September 3, 2022:

*********************************************
Enerplus Fox Pad Proposed

Three producing wells in this drilling unit:

• 20978, 634, Enerplus, Red Rocks 149-93-10AH, Mandaree, t12/11; cum 189K 7/20; cum 210K 3/23; cum 211K/7/23; recently off line;
  
• 20499, 708, Enerplus, Fox Ridge 10-21H, Mandaree, t12/11; cum 223K 7/20; cum 245K 3/23; cum 248K 10/23; recently off line;
  
• 20977, 776, Enerplus, Morrison 149-93-10AH, Mandaree, t12/11; cum 305K 7/20; cum 335K 3/23; cum 340K 1/24;
  

The "Fox" pad:

• 37819,  loc, Enerplus, Troop 149-93-10B-15H-LL, Mandaree,
• 37820,  loc, Enerplus, Skulk 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
• 37821,  loc, Enerplus, Canidae 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
• 37822,  loc, Enerplus, Fennec 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
• 37823,  loc, Enerplus, Sly 149-93-10B-15H, Mandaree,
• 37824,  loc, Enerplus, Vulpes 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
• 37825,  loc, Enerplus, Kit 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
• 37826,  loc, Enerplus, Renard 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree,
• 37827,  loc, Enerplus, Swift 149-93-10A-15H, Mandaree, 

The maps: 

Parting Shot -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44734WTI.   

Huge draw today (API data).

If corroborated by EIA tomorrow ... whoo-hoo!

Reminder: government no longer releasing (much) oil from the SPR.

Saudi sounds like they have had enough with sub-$80 oil.

US driving season around the corner.

COP: US Shale Dominance -- Goal -- Hart Energy -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44733INV.  

These are the kinds of stories I love.

Link here. Or go direct.

From TMDW.

COP (in the Bakken: wholly-owned subsidiary, Burlington Resources) -- is now followed here.

• 2022, fact sheet: Bakken -- 560,000 net acres.
  
• July 2, 2021: special call -- ten-year strategic plan following the acquisition of Concho
• 620,000 net acres in the Bakken
• currently no active rigs in the Bakken (link here)
  
• 3Q20: earnings call;
  
• CY2019, annual report; this link; 
  
• 2Q18: incredible earnings report; with two rigs in the Bakken, 82,000 bpd
• 1Q14: 620,000 net acres; 1,800 identified drilling locations based on 10-rig program
• 3Q12 earnings call: 620,000 net acres; 26,000 boepd; ramped up from five to eight rigs; 
• 626,000 net acres, COP/CEO at Houston conference, May 16, 2012
• 460,000 net acres (Investopedia, March 29, 2011; Annual Report, 2010)
• Looking to acquire more, Annual Report, 2010
• 8 rigs (May, 2012); looking to ramp up to 9 - 10 rigs (same link) 

Where have we heard "dominance" and "shale" before? Link here.

Five-year:

Max:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

OXY:

• mkt cap: $54 billion
• p/e: 6.8
• div: 1.21%

COP:

• mkt cap: $126 billion
• p/e: 8.33
• div: 5.07%

DVN:

• mkt cap: $32 billion
• p/e: 5.35
• div: 9.18%

PXD:

• mkt cap: $50 billion
• p/e: 7.60
• div: 10.84

Paul Krugman's Argument On Government Debt -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44732DEFAULT.  

See this post.

I know a lot of folks will "consider the source" (Paul Krugman in this case) but it's an incredibly interesting argument.

I was first exposed to the argument some years ago (again, because of the blog, thank you very much) and it was at that point, the US debt bothered me a whole lot less (if it ever bothered me at all). 

Before we go on, there are two "new" issues now being discussed outside the debt ceiling itself:

• first: do governments even have to pay back their debt (and all the discussions that derive from that question)? And,
• second, what would happen if Janet Yellen "simply broke the law" to allow the government to continue paying its bills (and all the discussions that derive from that question)?

Now, back to Paul Krugman, link here.

In case the link eventually breaks, here's the first few paragraphs:

• The US government doesn't have to pay off its $31 trillion debt, Paul Krugman said.
• The government debt can't be compared to something like a household's finances, Krugman said. 
• "When governments for one reason or another run up large debts, it is, as far as I can tell, unusual to pay those debts off." 

The US doesn't actually have to pay off its $31 trillion mountain of debt, according to top economist Paul Krugman, hitting back at the idea that government finances can be compared to household balance sheets in an op-ed weeks before the US possibly defaults on some obligations.

Though individual borrowers are expected to pay off debts, the same isn't true for governments, Krugman argued in a column for the New York Times on Friday. That's because unlike people, governments don't die, and they gain more revenue with each passing generation."

Governments, then, must service their debts – pay interest and repay principal when bonds come due – but they don't necessarily have to pay them off; they can issue new bonds to pay principal on old bonds and even borrow to pay interest as long as overall debt doesn't rise too much faster than revenue," he added.

Though the debt-to-GDP ratio hovered around 97% last year, interest payments on that debt is only around $395 billion, according to the Office of Management and Budget, or around 1% of last year's GDP.

Historically, it's also unusual for governments to pay off large debts, Krugman said. Such was the case for Great Britain, which has largely held onto the debt it incurred as far back as the Napoleonic wars.

By the way, this is not a new "theory" by Krugman. He said years ago, probably the last time the debt ceiling became an issue.

In fact, the more and more I "study" this issue, the more it seems to be a manufactured Charlie-Brown-Lucy-kick-the-football political issue used by both parties to raise money and attract voters. 

At the end of the day, mixing metaphors, my hunch is that the sun will rise and set as predicted regardless of whether the debt ceiling is raised by "x-day." And at my age, I'm mostly interested in see another sunrise. 

Time for another one of my favorites. And one that seems appropriate for the times. Link here.

The movie came out in 1975, based on the 1973 stage musical.

2023 - 1973: fifty-year anniversary this year. Is that correct?

From broadwayworld.com:

2023 marks the 50th Anniversary of the legendary smash hit musical The Rocky Horror Show, as it continues to play a newly extended tour through 2023 to sell-out crowds.

Richard O'Brien's legendary rock 'n' roll musical celebrates 50 years of non-stop partying with this special anniversary production.

Since it first opened in London in June 1973 at The Royal Court Theatre The Rocky Horror Show has become the longest continuous run of a contemporary musical anywhere in the world.

The show has been seen by over 30 million people worldwide in more than 30 countries and translated into 20 languages as it continues to delight audiences on its sell-out international tour. Without doubt the Rocky Horror Show is as iconic as it gets.

Lighting up the stage this phenomenal cast will perform songs that are embedded in pop culture. With a whole host of special celebrations to be announced throughout the year, the cast are in full throttle and ready to honour this monumental moment, delivering a guaranteed party that leaps off the stage and transcends into the audience.

The tour remains sold out and has been extended.

It certainly seems some folks have not changed much since 1973. Just saying.

MRO With Four New Permits; BR Renewed Fourteen Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44731B.  

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $72.91. After hours trending toward $74.

Natural gas: $2.321.

Four new oil and gas permits, #39916 - #39919, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Murphy Creek (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for four new wells -- an Arnew, an Anseth, a Bergelie, and Quam, all in NENW 22-145-96; 
• to be sited 320 FNL and between 2235 FWL and 2355 FWL

Permitted for recompletion:

• 6900, Stearns Oil, Harold Haugen 25-1, SESW 25-161-103, Daneville field, Divide County.
• previous targets: Stonewall, Madison, Red River, all productive to some extent, but most from the Red River formation; Red River, t4/83; cum 130K 8/19;
  

Sixteen permits renewed:

• BR (14): West Kelogg, Shafer, Sandrie, Sequoiafill,
  
• Foundation Energy (2): Roosevelt Federal and Mosser Federal,
  

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38214, 378, WPX, Two Shields Butte,
• 38215, 724, WPX, Two Shields Butte,
• 38216, 524, WPX, Two Shields Butte,
• 36480, 1,060, WPX, Skunk Creek,
• 36481, 867, WPX, Skunk Creek,
• 35528, 485, WXP, Two Shields Butte,

Slawson cancels four Diamondback permits, NWNW 21-151-92 and NENE 21-151-92;

You Know You've Made It As A Movie Director When .... -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44733ENT.   

Updates

May 234, 2023: trending on twitter. Six-minute standing ovation at Cannes Festival.

Original Post

Link here. 

You know a Wes Anderson movie the minute you see one. His whimsical yet melancholy films are characterized by intense color palettes, symmetrical composition, swift camera movements and shots that whip back and forth between characters in quippy conversation. The style has inspired fashion, interior design, luxury travel, an episode of “The Simpsons,” years of Halloween costumes, and now, TikTok videos.

In their short-form videos, Anderson fans distill the director’s style down to the basics: quick successions of people in bright clothing, deadpan stares, figures and objects centered in the middle of the frame, and the song “Obituary,” from the soundtrack of Anderson’s 2021 film “The French Dispatch.” Though Anderson’s work has always lent itself to pastiche, TikTok users have turned the style into a viral video template since the trend took off in April.

As Anderson premieres his 11th directed feature, “Asteroid City,” at the Cannes Film Festival this week, the hashtag bearing his name has been viewed over one billion times, according to TikTok, with more than 719 million views since January. Anderson declined to comment.

Apple -- Broadcom -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44732SC. 

Chips, semiconductor: link here.

Link here. The deal:

• Apple iss extending its existing chip-supply agreement with Broadcom
• multi-year deal; was set to expire this year
• as part of the deal that Apple and Broadcom disclosed Tuesday, the chip maker will supply Apple with 5G radio-frequency components and wireless-connectivity components. The companies didn’t disclose the exact value of the deal.
• several manufacturing hubs, including Fort Collins, Colorado
• analysts: deal likely to run through 2026; worth in excess of $15 billion;
• Apple makes up 20% of Broadcom's revenue.
• noticeably missing from the article: any mention of the Biden-backed IRA
  

Are You Getting As Tired Of Janet Yellen As I Am? May 22, 2023

 

Locator: 44730DEFAULT. 

Updates

May 24, 2023: more and more talk that "x-date" is not June 1, 2023, and, in fact, the US might be able to get through the summer without raising the debt limit.

May 23, 2023: the article below provides no new information; it's an op-ed. If the government defaults, the moral high ground will be held by the President but it will be his legacy that is tarnished -- and if "things" spiral out of control, the Congressional GOP -- especially the MAGA GOP members -- will hold the winning cards.

May 23, 2023: from The WSJ -- 

• re-posting the interactive US Treasury checkbook.
  

May 23, 2023: as of today, the "x-date"is May 25, 2023.  

The weekend of May 27 - 28, 2023 may be where we finally see movement. When a deal is announced, Congress has 72 hours to read it; twenty four hours to pass it; twenty-four hours to print the document that the president will sign; and two hours to get the document to the President If the staff thinks it wise to "look at" the document before signing it, another twelve hours might be needed. If the photo op is Monday, May 29, 2023, then Friday, June 2, 2023, 4:00 p.m. EST, is "x-hour, x-day."

May 23, 2023: I see "Biden considers 14th amendment" as a Yahoo!Finance headline today.

Biden knows Washington politics very, very well. First, this data point: more and more Washington insiders are beginning to question Janet Yellen's "June 1, 2023" as the "x-date. These insiders will argue that Janet Yellen is not the sharpest knife in the drawer; she often seems out of the loop; she has periods of not being seen for extended periods of time by her own staff; she is a politician and loyal Democrat above all else, except perhaps to "preserve" her own legacy; and, as such, these insiders are starting to question Yellen's "crying wolf" speeches. Whether one wants to "believe" these insiders or not, it is a fact that her date seems very nebulous. It's always "on/about/before" without providing hard numbers to reporters.

My hunch: the US Treasury knows exactly what money is scheduled to come in on any given day for the next 30 days, certainly the next 10 days on a "rolling basis." The US Treasury also must know exactly what money is scheduled to go out on any given day for the next 30 days, certainly the next 10 days on a "rolling basis."  It would be impossible for any "new pop-ups" because it would require US Congress to authorize more spending. 

I'm sure that Yellen has provided the Biden administration the best estimate for the "x-date."

Now, back to Biden. As I was saying, he knows Washington politics very, very well. 

Invoking the 14th amendment is binary. Either he is serious or he is not.

If he's not serious, it's simply a rhetorical tool to keep the opposing party off balance. A distraction at worst.

If he's serious, he knows that legal ramifications are also binary: the courts will either rule invoking the 14th amendment is constitutional or it is not. If the courts rule in his favor, the whole thing becomes moot. 

Regardless, Biden knows the judicial process takes a bit of time, and the government has already stated they expect quarterly tax money to start arriving in mid-June which pushes the "x-date" out even farther. If enough money comes in, he can "pull back" on the 14th amendment, the courts drop the case, and we move on to the next deadline.

May 23, 2023: on May 23, 2023, I wrote: 

Debt ceiling:

• talks not going well;
• most concerning: 
• GOP leadership not able to frame “their” message;
• Do the GOP even have a message?
• do MAGA Republicans see blood in the water?
  
• 14th Amendment; section 4.
  
• wiki;
• op-ed: WAMC Northeast Public Radio; about WAMC

Original Post

Locator: 44727DEFAULT.

How many times does Janet Yellen have to tell us the US could default as soon as June 1, 2023. 

We get it. And "we" don't matter.

The negotiators know what's going on. That's all that matters.

One can do the calendar-math.

X-day.

X-day-1: same day / one day before -- President Biden signs the document to raise the debt ceiling.

X-day-2: two days before x-day, US Congress passes whatever they need to pass to raise the debt ceiling.

X-day-5: agreement between US House and President Biden printed and distributed to members of US Congress. US Congress has 72 hours to read the document.

X-day-6: agreement between US House and President Biden reached. Handshake. Photo-op. All smiles.

So, now, put some calendar dates against "X-day."

X-day: May 31, 2023, per Janet Yellen.

May 31, 2023 - 6 days = May 25, 2023. 

Today, is May 22. We have three more days.

Now, If They Could Just Close The Deal! The "Debt Ceiling" Deal -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44729ECON.

Link here.

That manufacturing index? Wait until all that IRA money works its way through the economy.

Link here.

Chord-XTO Deal -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44726CHORD_XTO. 

Hart Energy tweeted this yesterday. Now, more background.

From EnergyIntel.com.

Bottom line:

• only 20% of Exxon Mobil's Bakken assets in the deal
• $375 million

From WorldOil.com.

• Chord to pay with cash on hand
• Chord had $592 million in cash on March 31, 2023

From okenergytoday.com.

• 62,000 acres
• 77% of this acreage is undeveloped

Back-of-the-envelope:

• $375 million / 62,000 acres = $6,000 / acre
• $375 million / 6,000 boed = $62,500 / boepd flowing
• 20% of what = 62,000 acres; XTO acreage before sale: 310,000 acres

One wonders if most of the acreage in the deal was "outside" the reservation? 

Zacks is best link right now.

• the acquisition allows Chord Energy to expand six of its pre-acquisitiono drilling spacing units from two miles to three miles
• acreage, fully held by production
• Chord estimates: 123 net 10,000-feet equivalent locations
• low base decline rate of 23%
• oil: 62% of net production from acquired assets

From this blog, but I quit following XTO almost ten years ago:

XOM (XTO)

• June 2, 2014: Fitzsimmons over at Seeking Alpha. 
• November, 2012: NOG says 600,000 acres
• September 20, 2012: XOM to buy all DNR acreage in the Williston Basin Bakken (North Dakota and Montana); $1.6 billion deal; 196,000 Bakken acres; but DNR gets XOM acreage in Wyoming and Texas; see XOM below; --> 606,000 net acres?
• Net Bakken acreage (Montana + North Dakota): 410,000 net acres
• Much of it inside the reservation; closely aligned geographically with KOG
• XTO bought Headington, 2008; the Headington group discovered the Elm Coulee field in Montana

Slawson Wells Starting To Come Off Confidential List Again -- May 23, 2023

Locator: 44728B.
Locator: 44728FORD.

Texas and Texas oil is back! For diners, Dallas is the new Dubai. Link here.

The crowds streaming into Highland Park Village are hungry for luxury. At this open-air shopping center in suburban Dallas, they valet-park their Porsches, sport Yves Saint Laurent handbags, flit in and out of Audemars Piguet and pause for brunch at Sadelle’s, the fancy new deli from Major Food Group in New York.

Sadelle’s has been open for just over a year, and it’s not unusual to find the place packed on a Tuesday afternoon, as well-dressed guests sip mimosas and snack on $18 pigs in a blanket [hot dogs] and $85 latkes [pancakes] topped with salmon and Osetra caviar. Even the sugar for coffee comes to the table in tiny Le Creuset Dutch ovens.

Sadelle's? 4.5 stars at Open Table. It's a "NY deli." It looks like the caviar and smoked salmon is the draw.

My best deli experiences: in Los Angeles, decades ago, with the love of my life and now my wife. We've never been able to duplicate those deli experiences. Never. But, apples to oranges, frog legs as a late night treat with a Bitburger in a small out-of-the way restaurant in Bitburg, Germany, was a very, very close second. That, too, we've never been able to duplicate.

My not-ready-for-prime-time comments earlier this morning to a reader:

• waiting for default ceiling talks to play out certainly providing some nice opportunities. 
• with a 30-year horizon it doesn’t matter much, but it worked out well to buy ----- today rather than last week. 
• stock pickers' market right now. 
• Apple signed huge deal with Broadcom. 
• oil up nicely. Someone said CVX got a good deal with PDC. I saw the same thing when I did back-of-the-envelope calculations. Posted late last night. Some Permian but almost all D-J — probably why they got such a good deal.

Amazon's clout: NFL to move better match-ups to TNF later in the season; link here.

• TNF: Thursday Night Footall, aired by Amazon Prime Video
• APV "free" with Amazon Prime subscription

Ford: a tough row to hoe. Link here to The WSJ, an "uphill climb." 

Renewable energy: difficult to turn a profit

• Equinor nixes planned Norwegian Trollvind offshore wind farm
• would have been hugely expensive

Also, out of Norway:

*********************************
Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $73.20.

Natural gas: $2.367.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Wednesday, May 24, 2023: 41 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 348 for the year
39238, conf, CLR, Skachenko FUI 4-31HSL, see this note.
38969, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-4,
38943, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 4-32-29H,
37848, conf, Slawson, Genesis 3-13H,

Tuesday, May 23, 2023: 37 for the month; 89 for the quarter, 344 for the year
37850, conf, Slawson, Genekat Federal 6-13-12TFH,
37849, conf, Slawson, Loon Federal 3-24-35H,

RBN Energy: what's driving the energy industry's latest cycle of consolidation?

The energy industry’s upstream products — crude oil, natural gas and NGLs — are commodities, so the lowest-cost producers generally do best, especially if they are well-connected to downstream markets. Due in large part to the intensity of competition, finite drilling locations, the constant need for capital investment and the chilling effect of political headwinds, the industry is in the middle of a consolidation cycle that has enabled a select group of top-tier E&Ps to build scale — and longer-lasting inventories — in the most productive parts of the most lucrative shale plays. That scale, in turn, helps these Shale Era winners reduce their costs, gain market share and — important in 2023 and beyond — return a big slice of their free cash flow to investors as dividends and stock buybacks. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss what’s driving that “urge to merge” and what it means for industry players large and small.