Are You Getting As Tired Of Janet Yellen As I Am? May 22, 2023

 

Locator: 44730DEFAULT. 

Updates

May 24, 2023: more and more talk that "x-date" is not June 1, 2023, and, in fact, the US might be able to get through the summer without raising the debt limit.

May 23, 2023: the article below provides no new information; it's an op-ed. If the government defaults, the moral high ground will be held by the President but it will be his legacy that is tarnished -- and if "things" spiral out of control, the Congressional GOP -- especially the MAGA GOP members -- will hold the winning cards.

May 23, 2023: from The WSJ -- 

• re-posting the interactive US Treasury checkbook.
  

May 23, 2023: as of today, the "x-date"is May 25, 2023.  

The weekend of May 27 - 28, 2023 may be where we finally see movement. When a deal is announced, Congress has 72 hours to read it; twenty four hours to pass it; twenty-four hours to print the document that the president will sign; and two hours to get the document to the President If the staff thinks it wise to "look at" the document before signing it, another twelve hours might be needed. If the photo op is Monday, May 29, 2023, then Friday, June 2, 2023, 4:00 p.m. EST, is "x-hour, x-day."

May 23, 2023: I see "Biden considers 14th amendment" as a Yahoo!Finance headline today.

Biden knows Washington politics very, very well. First, this data point: more and more Washington insiders are beginning to question Janet Yellen's "June 1, 2023" as the "x-date. These insiders will argue that Janet Yellen is not the sharpest knife in the drawer; she often seems out of the loop; she has periods of not being seen for extended periods of time by her own staff; she is a politician and loyal Democrat above all else, except perhaps to "preserve" her own legacy; and, as such, these insiders are starting to question Yellen's "crying wolf" speeches. Whether one wants to "believe" these insiders or not, it is a fact that her date seems very nebulous. It's always "on/about/before" without providing hard numbers to reporters.

My hunch: the US Treasury knows exactly what money is scheduled to come in on any given day for the next 30 days, certainly the next 10 days on a "rolling basis." The US Treasury also must know exactly what money is scheduled to go out on any given day for the next 30 days, certainly the next 10 days on a "rolling basis."  It would be impossible for any "new pop-ups" because it would require US Congress to authorize more spending. 

I'm sure that Yellen has provided the Biden administration the best estimate for the "x-date."

Now, back to Biden. As I was saying, he knows Washington politics very, very well. 

Invoking the 14th amendment is binary. Either he is serious or he is not.

If he's not serious, it's simply a rhetorical tool to keep the opposing party off balance. A distraction at worst.

If he's serious, he knows that legal ramifications are also binary: the courts will either rule invoking the 14th amendment is constitutional or it is not. If the courts rule in his favor, the whole thing becomes moot. 

Regardless, Biden knows the judicial process takes a bit of time, and the government has already stated they expect quarterly tax money to start arriving in mid-June which pushes the "x-date" out even farther. If enough money comes in, he can "pull back" on the 14th amendment, the courts drop the case, and we move on to the next deadline.

May 23, 2023: on May 23, 2023, I wrote: 

Debt ceiling:

• talks not going well;
• most concerning: 
• GOP leadership not able to frame “their” message;
• Do the GOP even have a message?
• do MAGA Republicans see blood in the water?
  
• 14th Amendment; section 4.
  
• wiki;
• op-ed: WAMC Northeast Public Radio; about WAMC

Original Post

Locator: 44727DEFAULT.

How many times does Janet Yellen have to tell us the US could default as soon as June 1, 2023. 

We get it. And "we" don't matter.

The negotiators know what's going on. That's all that matters.

One can do the calendar-math.

X-day.

X-day-1: same day / one day before -- President Biden signs the document to raise the debt ceiling.

X-day-2: two days before x-day, US Congress passes whatever they need to pass to raise the debt ceiling.

X-day-5: agreement between US House and President Biden printed and distributed to members of US Congress. US Congress has 72 hours to read the document.

X-day-6: agreement between US House and President Biden reached. Handshake. Photo-op. All smiles.

So, now, put some calendar dates against "X-day."

X-day: May 31, 2023, per Janet Yellen.

May 31, 2023 - 6 days = May 25, 2023. 

Today, is May 22. We have three more days.