Sunday, October 24, 2021

The Media Is Primed To Report A Cold, Harsh Winter Even If Winter Is Not Out Of The Ordinary This Year -- October 24, 2021

Updates

October 25, 2021: right on cue, CNBC is now talking about a "warmer" winter. LOL. When I was growing up in North Dakota, it was difficult to tell the difference between -40°F and -42°F during the month of February.

Original Post 

Sophia and I are tracking the global energy crisis, 2021 - 2022, at this site

News tonight: a colder winter threatens to worse Asia's energy crisis


Right now, there is a segment of the media that is primed to talk about the energy crisis this winter. "Everyone" agrees that if this winter is "colder than normal," there will be a crisis of historic proportions. 

I think that's all wrong.

The facts are:

  • winters are cold. Period. Dot. Cold. Some winters are worse than others, but all winters are cold.
  • there is already an energy deficit and prices are already high. And, according to my calendar, winter has not even begun. 

So, I think it's all wrong to suggest / imply that only if we have a colder winter than usual there will be a crisis of historic proportions.

Just "having winter" will be enough to cause huge problems. I guess the only question is when do the problems "really" begin? In November, or December? Or in January or  February?

The Farmers' Almanac, by the way, doesn't see a particularly unusual winter.  I suppose, looking at the map, The Farmers' Almanac suggests the winter in general will be typically cold, perhaps worse than usual over the Great Plains, extending into Texas. But nowhere does the Almanac suggest warmer than usual.

On top of that, as noted above, the media is primed to start reporting those stories, so even typical winter events, typical winter temperatures are likely to result in "the sky is falling" reporting. And unlike really hot weather, really cold weather -- especially with lots of snow -- provides great video for the evening network news programs.

Already, as noted above, we have China, Japan and South Korea already anticipating colder weather sooner. 

I think this will be fascinating to watch.

If there is no new Covid-19 surge, one might see "ice age" stories take Covid-19 off the front page. 

*****************************
The Day Of The Dead

One of the fastest-growing -- perhaps the fastest-growing -- fiestas in the United States right now. 

"I Told You So" -- October 24, 2021

There's a lot of "I told you so" in the graphics at this Powerline blog tonight. I'm sure everyone can find at least one graphic that says "I told you so."

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- Production Data For Two Incredible CLR Wells -- October 24, 2021

The wells

  • 37988, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 18-33H, Antelope, huge well, first production, 6/21, t--; cum 128K 8/21:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20213903839827
7-20214676048736
6-2021395933810
  • 37989, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 17-33H1, Antelope, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 115K 8/21;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20213174032511
7-20215297854981
6-20213032631054
5-20217050

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze Me -- October 24, 2021

This page won't be updated.

Wow, the Bakken never ceases to amaze me.

October 24, 2021: new production data available -- 

  • 37029, conf, Enerplus, Fiddle 149-94-02C-01H-TF, McKenzie County, Mandaree, incredibly good well; scout ticket not updated; first production, 3/21; t--; cum 227K 8/21 (less than six months)
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20212714331994
7-20214093447735
6-20215091058674
5-20215326858213
4-20214284331028
3-20211710411787

Predicting The Price Of Oil Is A Fool's Errand -- So, Let's Go Brandon -- October 24, 2021

WTI: we'll see overnight trading begin in about an hour or so. Will open just under $84. Cushing is almost empty (FWTW). From last week, last trade: up 1.53%, up $1.26, closed at $83.76. Later: 5:36 p.m. CT -- WTI opens right at $84.04. Later: 8:26 p.m. CT -- it looks like WTI will struggle to move much higher, quickly, now $84.39. Later: 9:17 p.m. CT, $48.57. Later: 9:26 p.m. CT, $84.68.

And now this, from Irina Slav. "Peak oil demand forecasts turn sour as demand keeps growing." I think this is fascinating. The #1 story: will Saudi Arabia respond? Readers know my position on that. What's Irina got to say?

The short-term price outlook is quite fascinating. Crude oil inventories are being drawn down across the world, and OPEC+ is sticking to its original decision to add just 400,000 bpd to combined monthly output. It is, however, not doing even that because some of its members are struggling to fill their production quotas due to underinvestment that has been plaguing them for years.

Demand, meanwhile, is rising, with the energy crunch seen adding anywhere between 500,000 bpd and 750,000 bpd to the global daily average. This, combined with reports that U.S. crude oil inventories are some 6 percent below the five-year average for this time of the year, and that OECD inventories are 162 million barrels below the pre-COVID five-year average, has been very effective in keeping prices above $80 per barrel and spurring forecasts for three-digit prices. My hunch: the Saudis probably like Biden as much as the rest of us, and are already trying to translate "let's go Brandon" into Farsi.

The second story I'm following: "the Bakken's" response to increasing demand. "The Bakken," of course, is a metonym for the US shale revolution. Is it still a revolution now that the revolution began in 2000, over two decades ago?

Odds and ends:

  • California gasoline prices: spiking. Link to Julianne Geiger.
  • Nigeria is still producing under OPEC oil quota; the country has technical problems with oil output, OPEC+ needs to wait before raising production faster, OPEC+ needs to be very cautious -- oil minister. Source.
  • EIA: the source of American electricity, 2020. Source.
  • Fools: link to The WSJ.
  • Cushing is empty. Didn't I just say that? Cushing is empty sweet crude and North Sea is next. Refining margins are good and crude stocks will resume draws in November, 2021. Covid can increase but deaths will not, limiting impact. Only shale/OPEC+ can add oil and neither is inclined to add enough. Source.

************************************
Tesla

Tesla: see this post, following Tesla's 3Q21 earnings. Is Tesla on to something bigger and better. Oilprice has a number of great contributors; Alex Kimani is one of them. And now today: "Why Tesla's latest battery decision is a gamechanger." From the linked article:

There is more to come from the trailblazing electric vehicle company, however, with its move to cheap, cobalt-free batteries.

Tesla now boasts one of the highest operating margins in the vehicle manufacturing business at nearly 15%.

But the EV company might be able to expand its already impressive margins by pulling off another nifty trick: Deploying cheap, cobalt-free batteries in its cars.

In its latest investor presentation, Tesla revealed that it's switching battery chemistry for all standard-range Models 3 and Y from nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA) chemistry to an alternative, older technology that uses a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistry.

LFP cells not only have much longer useful lifetimes but are also cheaper than NCA or nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) cells. The biggest trade-off is that LFP batteries have a lower energy density. However, LFP batteries are still able to compensate for this shortcoming by dramatically cutting on thermal runaway in the event of a crash, meaning an LFP battery pack requires much less volume on cooling and structural protection to keep the cells separated.

Many electric buses in China already use LFP batteries. Last year, Tesla introduced LFP batteries in its standard range Model 3s in China and dropped the starting price from 309,900 yuan ($48,080) to 249,900 yuan ($38,773). CEO Elon Musk has revealed that the improving energy density of LFP batteries now makes it possible to use the cheaper, cobalt-free batteries in its lower-end vehicles so as to free up more battery supply of lithium-ion chemistry cells for Tesla's other models.

Up to now, intellectual property restrictions have kept LFP cells mostly within China. But Tesla will now be able to deploy them in its pivotal U.S. market after it won approval from the Chinese government to start using LFP batteries in Chinese-made BEVs in 2020. Indeed, Tesla is making the switch to LFP mandatory in all its markets after a positive reception in the U.S.

Last December, Bloomberg NEF, a clean energy researcher that has been, among other things, tracking battery costs, announced that battery costs had dipped below the $100 per kWh threshold for the first time ever. The crucial milestone was achieved for battery packs designed for electric buses in China.

In the EV industry, the $100 per kWh battery cost price point is generally regarded as the Holy Grail critical for the wider adoption of electric vehicles by making them cost-competitive at the sticker price, which remains an important psychological barrier for many buyers. The powertrain typically accounts for more than 70% of the cost of an EV. Tesla's LFP switch not only means fatter margins but can fast track the company in the race to $100 per kWh leading to longer growth runways.

More at the linked article.

Think about that: Mr Elon Musk has the pricing power to raise the prices on his vehicles (he just did) and now he's building a cheaper battery, the most expensive piece of hardware in the EV.  

**************************
U.S. Electricity

Renewable energy: after decades of promotion, investments, and tax benefits --

  • solar: 0.023 * 0.20 = 0.0046 or 0.46%
  • wind: 0..084 * 0.20 = 0.0168 = 1.68%

Off The Blog For An Hour Or So -- October 24, 2021

NASCAR: today, 2:00 p.m. Second of three for the group of eight.

Hit a wall: I wanted to post another few blog entries, but I need to take a break, but wow, take a look at the initial production for wells coming off the confidential list this next week. It's hard to believe we won't see a significant jump in production in the Bakken when the September, 2021, data is posted.

Enerplus continues to report a number of incredible wells, and again, this pad drilling / completion is incredible. Yes, I know, I use "incredible" too often. Same with "awesome." And "staggering." And "wow." There seems to be a trend. Oh, that's right. This is the "Bakken blog." LOL. 

Early on several fields in the Bakken were identified as particularly notable. Never, never, never did I think much of the Manitou oil field northeast of Williston. But all of a sudden, wow. I thought it was only Enerplus that cracked the Manitou code, but now I see Hess with an EN-Joyce well has a huge Manitou well. I had to take another look to make sure there was not a content or typographical error. But I think it's all correct. If not, we'll sort it out later. But if I'm correct, it speaks volumes about the Bakken. 

So, anyway, I have a lot of housekeeping to do on the blog, but for now, I have to take a break. Baseball is "off" for a few days before the World Series begins. I haven't watched the PGA in such a long time -- lost interest -- don't know why -- maybe the high point for the year was the Ryder Cup. But NASCAR and NFL today. What a great country. 

Lana Del Rey: I wish the language was a bit less "adult," so I could post a few more videos, but she simply amazes me, like the Bakken. 

NFL today: nothing interests me. Maybe Bears / Buccaneers later this afternoon. Seahawks play tomorrow night. I guess the Cowboys -- how 'bout them Cowboys? -- are off this week. Their next game? At Minnesota Vikings, October 31, 2021. Halloween. 

Traveling: I'll be mentioning this again. I'll be traveling again this week. I hate the "thought" of traveling, but once I get started it's not so bad. 

For investors: Piper Sandler's latest investor report. The interesting thing: much of this matches Jim Cramer's "inflation winners": energy, financials (banks). Among energy, highlighted: XOM (yawn), CVX, TTE, COP, BP (cough), Equinor (surprising), EOG (nice), ENI (pass), Ecopetrol, RDS (no). 

Just uploaded: the full album, The Beatles, Abbey Road. Uploaded on YouTube September 7, 2021. Album released 1969, the best year ever (in my lifetime, so far) for music.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 24, 2021

The wells:

  • 36772, conf,  Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-10, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211439910811
7-20212037314051
6-2021888714211
5-20211824627764
4-20215812
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20213179521165
7-20212780019030
6-20213092720890
5-20212821312767
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211734911524
7-20211888412879
6-20211565510574
5-202196774332
4-202127731476
  • 37978, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-5, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211939628144
7-20212995445812
6-20212603135283
5-202163032102218
4-20215259776
  • 36817, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2-2H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021165084909
7-2021114883029
6-202183125024
5-202122251191
  • 37478, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-2HR, Bully,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211137925346
7-20211761631027
6-20211833236242
5-20212536046492
4-202136906413
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021169438376
7-202110120
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20214525723668
7-20217440
  • 36770, conf, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-8, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021128768258
7-20212566019034
6-20212042332419
5-20212684744117
4-202153316796
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20215121726835
7-20211533554
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20217434741869
7-202140111513
  • 36917, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35HU, Robinson Lake, see this note;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021205146761
7-2021149269202
6-202153630
5-202148260
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-2021143059498
7-2021119418123
6-2021117127911
5-2021798311
4-202129481569
  • 37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211470520260
7-20211710420791
6-20211989126554
5-20215116058241
4-20211828725524
  • 36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211123711355
7-2021142909173
6-202150549661
5-20212006237150
4-202145166796

New Wells Reporting 4Q21

Saturday, December 4, 2021: 51 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 305 for the year:
38252, conf, CLR, Kukla 9-16H1,
37440, conf, Oasis, Wold 5297 11-6 2B,

Friday, December 3, 2021: 49 for the month, 52 for the quarter, 303 for the year:
38046, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 3-28-33H,

Thursday, December 2, 2021: 48 for the month, 51 for the quarter, 302 for the year:
38266, conf, CLR, Dvirnak 12-7HSL1,
38047, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH,

Wednesday, December 1, 2021: 46 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 300 for the year:

  • 38267, conf, CLR, Pletan 12-18HS1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38048, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 4-28-33TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 37623, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 6B, Banks, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 107K 9/21;
  • 36816, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2H, Sanish, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 50K 9/21;

Tuesday, November 30, 2021: 42 for the month, 45 for the quarter, 296 for the year:

  • 38268, conf, CLR, Jensen 8-8HSL, Chminey Butte, no production data,
  • 38236, conf, CLR, Mittlestadt 10-17HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data,

Monday, November 29, 2021: 40 for the month, 43 for the quarter, 294 for the year:

  • 38269, conf, CLR, Jensen 9-H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 38237, conf, CLR, Jensen 11-8HSL1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 36897, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7XH, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 43K 9/21;

Sunday, November 28, 2021: 37 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 291 for the year:

  • 38270, conf, CLR, Middlestadt 9-17H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
  • 36818, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2-3H, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 55K 9/21;
Saturday, November 27, 2021: 35 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 289 for the year:
  • None.

Friday, November 26, 2021: 35 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 289 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, November 25, 2021: 35 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 289 for the year:

  • None.

Wednesday, November 24, 2021: 35 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 289 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, November 23, 2021: 35 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 289 for the year:

  • 38238, conf, CLR, Jensen 10-8H, Chimney Butte, no production data;
  • 37082, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 11-7TFHU, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 26K 9/21;
  • 35483, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33B, Banks, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 110K over four months;

Monday, November 22, 2021: 32 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 286 for the year:

  • 36231, conf, Enerplus, Argillite 147-93-08D-95H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;

Sunday, November 21, 2021: 31 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 285 for the year:

  • 37658, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 5-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,

Saturday, November 20, 2021: 30 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 284 for the year:

  • 38082, conf, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, no production data,
  • 36229, conf, Enerplus, Slate 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;
  • 35484, conf, Oasis, Nikolia Federal 5397 42-33 4B, Banks, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --:
Friday, November 19, 2021: 27 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 281 for the year:
  • 37659, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 4-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,
  • 36895, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-7HU, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum --;

Thursday, November 18, 2021: 25 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 279 for the year:

  • 36226, conf, Enerplus, Mylonite 147-93-08D-05H-TF, Moccasin Creek, no production data,

Wednesday, November 17, 2021: 24 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 278 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, November 16, 2021: 24 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 278 for the year:

  • 37660, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 3-27H, Indian Hill, no production data,
  • 37083, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 11-7HU, Sanish, no production data,
  • 36225, conf, Enerplus, Horfels 147-93-08D-05H, Moccasin Creek, no production data,

Monday, November 15, 2021: 21 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 275 for the year:

  • 37366, conf, Enerplus, Amphibolite, 147-93-08D-05H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 71K 9/21;

Sunday, November 14, 2021: 20 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 274 for the year:

  • 37661, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 2-27HSL, Indian Hill, no production data,

Saturday, November 13, 2021: 19 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 273 for the year:

  • 37383, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12D-1-2H, East Tioga, no production data,
  • 36073, conf, Enerplus, Scoria 147-93-09C-04H-LL, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 110K 9/21;

Friday, November 12, 2021: 17 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 271 for the year:

  • 37500, conf,  CLR, Harrisburg 7-34HSL, Indian Hill, no production data,
  • 37384, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12D-1-3H, East Tioga, no production data,

Thursday, November 11, 2021: 15 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 269 for the year:

  • 37394, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-94-13A-24-2H, East Tioga, no production data,
  • 36072, conf,  Enerplus, Basalt 147-93-09C-04H-TF, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 144K 9/21;
  • 35485, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 3B, Banks, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 130K 9/21;

Wednesday, November 10, 2021: 12 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 266 for the year:

  • 37393, conf, Petro-Hunt, Blikre 158-94-13A-24-3H, East Tioga, no data,

Tuesday, November 9, 2021: 11 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 265 for the year:

  • 37499, conf, CLR, Harrisburg 6-34H, Indian Hill, no data,

Monday, November 8, 2021: 10 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 264 for the year:

  • 36071, conf, Enerplus, Andesite 147-93-09C-04H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 70K 9/21;

Sunday, November 7, 2021: 9 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 263 for the year:

  • 37979, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6, Manitou, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 150K 9/21;
  • 35486, conf, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5397 42-33 2B, Banks, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 110K 9/21;
Saturday, November 6, 2021: 7 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 261 for the year:
  • 36070, conf, Enerplus, Granite 147-93-09C-04H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 100K 9/21;

Friday, November 5, 2021: 6 for the month, 9 for the quarter, 260 for the year:

  • 37365, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-3H, Bully, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 80K 9/21;
  • 36773, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-8, Capa, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 55K 9/21;

Thursday, November 4, 2021: 4 for the month, 7 for the quarter, 258 for the year:

  • 36068, conf, Enerplus, Rhyolite 147-93-09C-04H-TF, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 70K 9/21;

Wednesday, November 3, 2021: 3 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 257 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, November 2, 2021: 3 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 257 for the year:

  • None.

Monday, November 1, 2021: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 254 for the year:

  • 36772, conf, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-10, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 70K 9/21;
  • 36069, conf, Enerplus, Gabbro 147-93-16B-21H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 145K 9/21;
  • 36066, conf, Enerplus, Pumice 147-93-16B-21H, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 90K 9/21;

Sunday, October 31, 2021: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 251 for the year:

  • None.

Saturday, October 30, 2021: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 251 for the year:

  • None.

Friday, October 29, 2021: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 251 for the year:

  • 37978, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-5, Manitou, HUGE WELL, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 286K 8/21;

Thursday, October 28, 2021: 27 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 250 for the year:

  • 36817, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2-2H, Sanish, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 38K 8/21;
  • 37478, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-2HR, Bully, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 76K 8/21;

Wednesday, October 27, 2021: 25 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 248 for the year:

  • 36931, conf, Rimrock Oil & Gas, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X27G, Heart Butte, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 17K 8/21;
  • 36930, conf, Rimrock Oil & Gas, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27C, Heart Butte, another huge well, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 45K 8/21;
  • 36770, conf, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-8, Beaver Lodge, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 90K 8/21;

Tuesday, October 26, 2021: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 245 for the year:

  • 36929, conf, Rimrock Oil & Gas, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27H, another huge well, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 51K 8/21;

Monday, October 25, 2021: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 244 for the year:

  • 36928, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27D, Heart Butte, HUGE WELL, 74K 8/21; first production, 7/21; t--; cum 78K 8/21;
  • 36917, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35HU, Robinson Lake, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 45K 8/21;
  • 36065, conf, Enerplus, Obsidian 147-93-16B-21H-TF, Moccasin Creek, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 40K 8/21;

Sunday, October 24, 2021: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 241 for the year:

  • 37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6, Manitou, 51K in 5/21, a huge well, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 121K 8/21;
  • 36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa; first production, 4/21; t--; cum 55K 8/21;

Saturday, October 23, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:

  • None.

Friday, October 22, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:

  • 38193, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW, Westberg, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 21K unknown how many days of production;

Thursday, October 21, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 239 for the year:

  • 37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H, Bully, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 75K 8/21;

Wednesday, October 20, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:

  • None.

Tuesday, October 19, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 238 for the year:

  • 37987, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-4A-9-1H, Little Knife, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 12K 8/21;
  • 36768, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10, Capa, a nice well, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 121K 8/21;

Monday, October 18, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, October 17, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:

  • None.
Saturday, October 16, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
  • None.

Friday, October 15, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, October 14, 2021: 12 for the month, 12 for the quarter, 236 for the year:

  • 37917, conf, Slawson, Whirlcat Federal 4-31-19TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

Wednesday, October 13, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 235 for the year:
None.

Tuesday, October 12, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 235 for the year:

  • 36916, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35TFHU, Robinson Lake, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 36K 8/21;

Monday, October 11, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, October 10, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

  • None.
Saturday, October 9, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:
  • None.

Friday, October 8, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

  • None.

Thursday, October 7, 2021: 10 for the month, 10 for the quarter, 234 for the year:

  • 37197, conf, Slawson, Mauser Federal 5-18-17H, North Fork, no data, scout ticked not updated;
  • 30201, conf, Whiting, Klose 21-27-3H, Glass Bluff, nice production, scout ticket not updated; this one is really on the Bakken fringe; south of the river, to the far west; not much out there; not even sage grouse.

Wednesday, October 6, 2021: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 232 for the year:

  • 37196, conf, Slawson, Mauser Federal 8-18-17TFH, North Fork, scout ticket not updated;
  • 37024, conf, Enerplus, Ukulele 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree, early production looks good; scout tick not updated;

Tuesday, October 5, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 230 for the year:

  • 37195, conf, Slawson, Mauser Federal 6-18-17H, North Fork, no production data, scout ticked not updated;

Monday, October 4, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 229 for the year:

  • None.

Sunday, October 3, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 229 for the year:

  • 37025, conf, Enerplus, Harp 149-94-02C-01H-TF, Mandaree, early production looks good; scout ticket not updated

Saturday, October 2, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 228 for the year:

  • 37026, conf, Enerplus, Guitar 149-94-02C-01H, Mandaree, early production looks okay; scout ticket not updated

Friday, October 1, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 228 for the year:

  • 35456, conf, QEP, MHA 5-29-30H-150-92,
  • 35454, conf, QEP, MHA 5-27-26H-150-92,
  • 35451, conf, QEP, MHA 4-29-30H-150-92,
  • 35449, conf, QEP, MHA 4-27-26H-150-92, 

*********************************

 Data for 4Q21: This Page
Data for 3Q21: 3Q21
Data for 2Q21: 2Q21
Data for 1Q21:  1Q21

 Data for 4Q20: 4Q20
Data for 3Q20: 3Q20
Data for 2Q20: 2Q20
Data for 1Q20: 1Q20
Data for 4Q19: 4Q19
Data for 3Q19:  3Q19
Data for 2Q19: 2Q19
Data for 1Q19: 1Q19
Data for 4Q18: 4Q18
Data for 3Q18: 3Q18
Data for 2Q18: 2Q18
Data for 1Q18: 1Q18
Data for 4Q17: 4Q17
Data for 3Q17: 3Q17
Data for 4Q16: 4Q16
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16
Data for 1Q16: 1Q16
Data for 4Q15: 4Q15
Data for 3Q15: 3Q15
Data for 2Q15: 2Q15
Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14
Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14
Data for 1Q14: 1Q14
Data for 4Q13: 4Q13
Data for 3Q13: 3Q13
Data for 2Q13: 2Q13
Data for 1Q13: 1Q13
Data for 4Q12: 4Q12
Data for 3Q12: 3Q12
Data for 2Q12: 2Q12
  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   
Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 
Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 
Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 
 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  
 Data for 2H10: 2H10 
Through 1H10: 1H10

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- October 24, 2021

Monday, November 1, 2021: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 254 for the year:
36772, conf,  Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-10,
36069, conf,  Enerplus, Gabbro 147-93-16B-21H
36066, conf, Enerplus, Pumice 147-93-16B-21H,

Sunday, October 31, 2021: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 251 for the year:
None.

Saturday, October 30, 2021: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 251 for the year:
None.

Friday, October 29, 2021: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 251 for the year:
37978, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-5,

Thursday, October 28, 2021: 27 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 250 for the year:
36817, conf, Whiting, S-Bar 12-2-2H,
37478, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6-2HR,

Wednesday, October 27, 2021: 25 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 248 for the year:
36931, conf, Rimrock Oil & Gas, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X27G,
36930, conf, Rimrock Oil & Gas, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27C,
36770, conf, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-8,

Tuesday, October 26, 2021
: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 245 for the year:
36929, conf, Rimrock Oil & Gas, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27H,

Monday, October 25, 2021: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 244 for the year:
36928, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Guybalckhawk 24X-27D,
36917, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 14-35HU,
36065, conf, Enerplus, Obsidian 147-93-16B-21H-TF,

Sunday, October 24, 2021: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 241 for the year:
37977, conf, Hess, EN-Joyce-LE-156-94-1721H-6,
36769, conf, Hess, CA-Russell Smith-155-96-2425H-10,

Saturday, October 23, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 239 for the year:
None.

Notes From All Over -- "Me And Bobby McGee" -- October 24, 2021

Snowflakes: Winter Is Coming

Before we get started, a must-read for Sunday morning. This was sent to me by a reader, an essay by the "Compass Point" columnist in American Compass

It's all about "safety." Great essay.

Interestingly enough, the writer of the essay failed to mention the word "millennial" or demographics or size of families. The phrase "risk aversion" is not used. "Safety" and "millennial" are joined at the hip. There are several reasons for this cultural phenomenon, of course, but there is one over-riding reason ... but again, I will keep it to myself. Let folks think about it for while.

It's a stretch, but perhaps "Me and Bobby McGee" does a pretty good job summarizing the essay. I've always thought the "hook" in "Me and Bobby McGee" was incorrect but it depends on how one interprets the "hook."

***************************
Reminiscing

I started my first blog in 2007 and then deleted it, in its entirety, during a state of temporary insanity. I started the blog again in 2009 and have not missed more than a day of blogging ever since, with some minor exceptions.

I started the blog simply to find a way to learn about "the Bakken." At the time, I knew nothing about oil or horizontal fracking but I had a inkling that it was going to be big. At first I was going to simply use a "word document" with hyperlinks but then -- serendipity -- the Air Force agency I worked for required staff directors to learn how to create a blog. That is all chronicled in my early posts. Nothing new.

But I had no idea how big the Bakken and the "Bakken economy" would become. I remember when it was crazy to think about a single well costing $10 million to drill / complete. I remember one "analyst" who I really grew to respect opine on a ten-well pad that would cost upwards of a $100 million to complete -- one pad, $100 million. At the time I equated a single Bakken well with a single convenience store: a similar amount of money to franchise, and then a revenue stream for decades. Mark Perry referenced that post.

Now, fast forward, to 2021, and a 63-mile pipeline, $260 million, providing upwards of 450 jobs (at least for a short period) is considered by some to be a small "project" hardly worthy of being mentioned on the blog. 

But then, I also posted the news item from a reader that a Slim Chickens had just gone vertical in Williston.

*******************************
Now The Rest

The blog has really helped me -- or at least my readers have. It helps to be able to pigeon hole sources, etc. For example, I only follow about eight folks over on twitter, and except for The Williston Herald and The Bismarck Tribune (fairly worthless, by the way, on twitter), and they are all with regard to fossil fuel. I get a few retweets from various sources. I used to follow John Kemp, the Reuters analyst but he became a bit unglued and I quit following him. But I digress. It is sometimes hard to figure out where these various folks "stand" when it comes to energy. 

Most recently, a reader pointed out to me Josh Young was a peak oiler. I sort of figured that out, but having someone whack me over the head with that "2x4" helps me follow his tweets. Thank you.

So, having said that, a link to a recent Josh Young tweet

I'm also surprised how little education some of the "experts" on twitter actually have. And how quickly they move up the ladder in social media and rely on the name of the company for which they work to give them any credibility. 

Oh, back to that Josh Young tweet. There was a graphic there I had trouble figuring out but knowing that Josh Young was a peak oiler made it very, very easy to see what the graph depicted.

*************************
Apple

November event: unlikely. But where did this even come from? No one ever suggested there would be a "November event." The big news: a new MacBook Air with "biggest redesign since 2010" is likely to launch next year. My hunch: all one has to do is look at the new MacBook Pro (the 14" and the 16" model and get a good idea with regard to the changes. My thoughts:

  • size: currently only one size available, 13" -- it's hard to imaging a larger laptop, but it's not hard to imagine two sizes from which to select
  • screen/bezels: more in line with MacBook Pro
  • screen notch (yawn)
  • my biggest concern: change from "wedge-shaped" to "rectangular prism" -- I love the iconic "wedge-shape."
    • perhaps with "rectangular prism," bigger battery
  • but having said that, looking at the current MacBook Air, the bang for the buck is incredible:
    • M1 chip
    • 8-core CPU, 8-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
    • 8 GB unified memory (this I did not know)
    • retina display
    • two Thunderbolt ports
    • four USB ports 

**************************
About Those $100,000 Teslas

Here's a thought. Stick with your 2020 F-150 and use some of the cash in your money market fund to buy ... a yacht. LOL. Inside the pandemic yacht boom.

before the year of the plague, it was typical for a yacht broker to have up to $10 million worth of inventory at any give time .. now .... rarely anything in stock.

With their net worth skyrocketing, the ultra-rich are snapping up yachts sight unseen -- the bigger the better.

What a great country. All those naysayers about the economy. Wow. 

We've never had it so good -- at least during my investing lifetime, 1984 to present.

**************************
Autos

I have a great note from a reader suggesting -- that based on recently quarterly report from steel manufacturer -- we have one or two more slow quarters of automobile sales, but next spring, next summer (2022) will be incredible. 

Even without that report, I would have said the same thing. I think the floodgates for new cars open next spring. Going into the mid-terms, the economy is going to be surging. 

****************************
Probably Too Early To Say

This is really, really cool. Another "meme" that was simply that: a meme.

Remember all that talk about paying folks to not work. Three months after those additional payments stopped ... guess what ... folks still aren't returning to work.

I said that at the time ... those extra payments were not the reason for folks not returning to work. Taking Sophia to daycare and picking her up every day for the past year taught me a lot. 

There's a significant percent of the American public -- the workforce -- that remain terrified of going back to work. It is truly amazing how terrified some folks are ... and how bit that pool seems to be ... and folks are terrified of everything. Terrified of not being vaccinated; terrified of being vaccinated; terrified of federal mandates; terrified of no mandates. 

I guess we have come full circle -- see opening above on "snowflakes." 

**********************************
One Last Word On Safety and Workers

There are some folks still not afraid to work and not afraid to take very, very risky -- shall we say, unsafe -- jobs and unsafe routes to find work. America is a great country.

Fossil Fuel Energy Jargon

I've watched financial news off and on for the past several decades. I don't recall ever hearing "strips" until recently; now every talking head opining on fossil fuel mentions "strips." I'm sure the word was used all these years by a select few and maybe I simply missed it  ...  it's like seeing a new word for the first time and then seeing it everywhere ... maybe that's all it is. Something I missed ...

The "strip" price is nothing more than the "arithmetic" average of all the prices over a specified period of time.

"Arithmetic": add up all the prices and divide by the number of individual data points.

Generally only used with fossil fuel energy; perhaps most often used by Guy Adani over at CNBC. Not to be confused with strip malls or strip clubs.

Generally only used when you want to sound like you know what you are talking about.

This should help:

Clearing Out The In-Box: Winter And Natural Gas -- October 24, 2021

Winter

Winter, 2021 - 2022: increasing number of reports suggest a warm October will be followed by a brutal winter.

***************************
Natural Gas

UK: natural gas prices at the UK's NBP hub for delivery in the core winter months are at their steepest premium to nearby markets in 15 years, reflecting heightened supply security concerns. Or do they reflect the weather forecast by the Farmer's Almanac?

Google: US natural gas production as a percent of global production. Around 25% currently. Reuters sees huge growth in 2022. Link here. But look at this from the IEA, July 18, 2017.

Flashback: 2019, Forbes, BP's 2019 review, production and consumption of natural gas.

BP, 2020 in review: natural gas consumption decreased by 2.3%, similar to the fall seen in 2009 during the financial crisis. Despite the reduction in absolute levels of gas demand, the share of gas in primary energy continued to rise, reaching a record high of 24.7%.

Wildcard: Resident Biden could upset natural gas momentum. Forbes, September 9, 2021

A fool's errand: to predict fossil fuel prices. TotalEnergies: natural gas price spike unlikely to be sustained. The natural gas spike, apparently, is simply transitory. A great article for the archives.

TED: I have not watched this video; I probably won't. From the review, it suggests TED has really let us down this time.

Preaching to the choir (it is Sunday morning, after all): the Wreck of the Global Warming Narrative .. the global warming scare is more than three decades old, yet the disaster that's been forecast on a nearly daily basis since the late 1980s has yet to arrive. Meanwhile, Antarctica recorded coldest winter in recorded history.