Notes From All Over -- "Me And Bobby McGee" -- October 24, 2021

Snowflakes: Winter Is Coming

Before we get started, a must-read for Sunday morning. This was sent to me by a reader, an essay by the "Compass Point" columnist in American Compass. 

It's all about "safety." Great essay.

Interestingly enough, the writer of the essay failed to mention the word "millennial" or demographics or size of families. The phrase "risk aversion" is not used. "Safety" and "millennial" are joined at the hip. There are several reasons for this cultural phenomenon, of course, but there is one over-riding reason ... but again, I will keep it to myself. Let folks think about it for while.

It's a stretch, but perhaps "Me and Bobby McGee" does a pretty good job summarizing the essay. I've always thought the "hook" in "Me and Bobby McGee" was incorrect but it depends on how one interprets the "hook."

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Reminiscing

I started my first blog in 2007 and then deleted it, in its entirety, during a state of temporary insanity. I started the blog again in 2009 and have not missed more than a day of blogging ever since, with some minor exceptions.

I started the blog simply to find a way to learn about "the Bakken." At the time, I knew nothing about oil or horizontal fracking but I had a inkling that it was going to be big. At first I was going to simply use a "word document" with hyperlinks but then -- serendipity -- the Air Force agency I worked for required staff directors to learn how to create a blog. That is all chronicled in my early posts. Nothing new.

But I had no idea how big the Bakken and the "Bakken economy" would become. I remember when it was crazy to think about a single well costing $10 million to drill / complete. I remember one "analyst" who I really grew to respect opine on a ten-well pad that would cost upwards of a $100 million to complete -- one pad, $100 million. At the time I equated a single Bakken well with a single convenience store: a similar amount of money to franchise, and then a revenue stream for decades. Mark Perry referenced that post.

Now, fast forward, to 2021, and a 63-mile pipeline, $260 million, providing upwards of 450 jobs (at least for a short period) is considered by some to be a small "project" hardly worthy of being mentioned on the blog. 

But then, I also posted the news item from a reader that a Slim Chickens had just gone vertical in Williston.

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Now The Rest

The blog has really helped me -- or at least my readers have. It helps to be able to pigeon hole sources, etc. For example, I only follow about eight folks over on twitter, and except for The Williston Herald and The Bismarck Tribune (fairly worthless, by the way, on twitter), and they are all with regard to fossil fuel. I get a few retweets from various sources. I used to follow John Kemp, the Reuters analyst but he became a bit unglued and I quit following him. But I digress. It is sometimes hard to figure out where these various folks "stand" when it comes to energy. 

Most recently, a reader pointed out to me Josh Young was a peak oiler. I sort of figured that out, but having someone whack me over the head with that "2x4" helps me follow his tweets. Thank you.

So, having said that, a link to a recent Josh Young tweet. 

I'm also surprised how little education some of the "experts" on twitter actually have. And how quickly they move up the ladder in social media and rely on the name of the company for which they work to give them any credibility. 

Oh, back to that Josh Young tweet. There was a graphic there I had trouble figuring out but knowing that Josh Young was a peak oiler made it very, very easy to see what the graph depicted.

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Apple

November event: unlikely. But where did this even come from? No one ever suggested there would be a "November event." The big news: a new MacBook Air with "biggest redesign since 2010" is likely to launch next year. My hunch: all one has to do is look at the new MacBook Pro (the 14" and the 16" model and get a good idea with regard to the changes. My thoughts:

• size: currently only one size available, 13" -- it's hard to imaging a larger laptop, but it's not hard to imagine two sizes from which to select
• screen/bezels: more in line with MacBook Pro
• screen notch (yawn)
• my biggest concern: change from "wedge-shaped" to "rectangular prism" -- I love the iconic "wedge-shape."
• perhaps with "rectangular prism," bigger battery
  
• but having said that, looking at the current MacBook Air, the bang for the buck is incredible:
• M1 chip
• 8-core CPU, 8-core GPU, 16-core Neural Engine
• 8 GB unified memory (this I did not know)
• retina display
• two Thunderbolt ports
• four USB ports 

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About Those $100,000 Teslas

Here's a thought. Stick with your 2020 F-150 and use some of the cash in your money market fund to buy ... a yacht. LOL. Inside the pandemic yacht boom.

before the year of the plague, it was typical for a yacht broker to have up to $10 million worth of inventory at any give time .. now .... rarely anything in stock.

With their net worth skyrocketing, the ultra-rich are snapping up yachts sight unseen -- the bigger the better.

What a great country. All those naysayers about the economy. Wow. 

We've never had it so good -- at least during my investing lifetime, 1984 to present.

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Autos

I have a great note from a reader suggesting -- that based on recently quarterly report from steel manufacturer -- we have one or two more slow quarters of automobile sales, but next spring, next summer (2022) will be incredible. 

Even without that report, I would have said the same thing. I think the floodgates for new cars open next spring. Going into the mid-terms, the economy is going to be surging. 

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Probably Too Early To Say

This is really, really cool. Another "meme" that was simply that: a meme.

Remember all that talk about paying folks to not work. Three months after those additional payments stopped ... guess what ... folks still aren't returning to work.

I said that at the time ... those extra payments were not the reason for folks not returning to work. Taking Sophia to daycare and picking her up every day for the past year taught me a lot. 

There's a significant percent of the American public -- the workforce -- that remain terrified of going back to work. It is truly amazing how terrified some folks are ... and how bit that pool seems to be ... and folks are terrified of everything. Terrified of not being vaccinated; terrified of being vaccinated; terrified of federal mandates; terrified of no mandates. 

I guess we have come full circle -- see opening above on "snowflakes." 

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One Last Word On Safety and Workers

There are some folks still not afraid to work and not afraid to take very, very risky -- shall we say, unsafe -- jobs and unsafe routes to find work. America is a great country.