Clearing Out The In-Box: Winter And Natural Gas -- October 24, 2021

Winter

Winter, 2021 - 2022: increasing number of reports suggest a warm October will be followed by a brutal winter.

• a big pattern change will probably be in the offing as the calendar flips to November;

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Natural Gas

UK: natural gas prices at the UK's NBP hub for delivery in the core winter months are at their steepest premium to nearby markets in 15 years, reflecting heightened supply security concerns. Or do they reflect the weather forecast by the Farmer's Almanac?

Google: US natural gas production as a percent of global production. Around 25% currently. Reuters sees huge growth in 2022. Link here. But look at this from the IEA, July 18, 2017.

Flashback: 2019, Forbes, BP's 2019 review, production and consumption of natural gas.

BP, 2020 in review: natural gas consumption decreased by 2.3%, similar to the fall seen in 2009 during the financial crisis. Despite the reduction in absolute levels of gas demand, the share of gas in primary energy continued to rise, reaching a record high of 24.7%.

Wildcard: Resident Biden could upset natural gas momentum. Forbes, September 9, 2021. 

A fool's errand: to predict fossil fuel prices. TotalEnergies: natural gas price spike unlikely to be sustained. The natural gas spike, apparently, is simply transitory. A great article for the archives.

TED: I have not watched this video; I probably won't. From the review, it suggests TED has really let us down this time.

Preaching to the choir (it is Sunday morning, after all): the Wreck of the Global Warming Narrative .. the global warming scare is more than three decades old, yet the disaster that's been forecast on a nearly daily basis since the late 1980s has yet to arrive. Meanwhile, Antarctica recorded coldest winter in recorded history.