Saturday, July 28, 2018

Random Look At A CLR Hayes Well With Jump In Production In Crazy Man Creek -- July 28, 2018

No data at FracFocus suggesting this well has been re-fracked:
  • 20193, 574, CLR, Hayes 1-6H, Crazy Man Creek, t6/11; cum 334K 5/18;
Recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphic:

Random Look At Jump In Production (x2) For A CLR Stangeland Well In Crazy Man Creek; Heel-To-Toe; Toe-To-Heel -- July 28, 2018

This is the parent well, runs from the south to the north:
  • 20188, 519, CLR, Stangeland 1-18H, Crazy Man Creek, API - 33-105-02102, t12/11; cum 256K 5/18; FracFocus without evidence that it was re-fracked;
See full production profile at this post. Note the jumps in production that correlate with the timing of the fracks of the neighboring wells.

These are the daughter wells, all of them run north to south:
  • 29844, 1,789, CLR, Stangeland 4-7H1, Crazy Man Creek, t11/17; cum 138K 5/18;
  • 29845, 2,155, CLR, Stangeland 5-7H, Crazy Man Creek, t12/17; cum 182K 5/18;

  • 29035, 1,051, CLR, Stangeland 3-7H1, Crazy Man Creek, t3/15; cum 185K 5/18;
  • 29036, 1,246, CLR, Stangeland 2-7H, Crazy Man Creek, t3/15; cum 230K 5/18;
  • 31427, 1,251, CLR, Stangeland 8-7H, Crazy Man Creek, t2/18; cum 87K 5/18;
  • 31428, 633, CLR, Stangeland 9-7H1, Crazy Man Creek, t2/18; cum 67K 5/18;
The graphic:

Random Update Of MRO Well Production After Neighboring Well Fracked -- July 28, 2018


October 1, 2018: #16993 looks pretty good --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Original Post
Wow, wow, wow --- earlier this note:
  • February 16, 2018: check on these two wells in about six months, #16993, #17797; a neighboring MRO well reported an IP of 6,204 on this date (#33535);
So, let's check on #16993 and #17797.

First,  #16993:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

It looks like we will have to come back to #16993 in a month or two. What about #17797.

Now, #17797, API - 33-025-00864; according to FracFocus, not re-fracked:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

"Permania" Vs "Steady Eddy" -- July 28, 2018 -- Reason #3 Why I Love To Blog

This is pretty cool. Direct from the blog on several levels.

Some months ago, while tracking older Bakken wells, I started using the phrase, "steady Eddy." At the time I had never seen that phrase in all the articles -- and there must be a million articles by now -- I've read regarding the Bakken or the oil and natural gas sector. Here's a screen shot of my "16xxx" post:

I've also talked many times in the past year that it's my contention that short term, the Bakken is "a better bet" than the Permian. I've also singled out Oasis, "what don't you want?"

Now this article in The Williston Herald:
The romance with the Permian might not be over just yet, but many analysts are trying to show smitten investors that there's a steady Eddy they should perhaps pay more attention to.
That steady Eddy would be none other than the Bakken.
Among these is Pablo Prudencio, an upstream analyst for Woods MacKenzie in their Houston office. It is his job to help investors weigh the pros and cons of each play, and help them determine which play is the best bang for their buck. He spoke at the recent Bakken Conference and Expo on the topic.
Permania, he said, has been a very popular term to explain what’s been going on with the shale play, with its sky’s the limit entry prices.
“A lot of companies have paid a lot of money to get into the Permian,” he said. “The average Permian deal was $25,000 for every net acre.”
By contrast, the average in the Bakken is more like $2,500 per net acre.
There were even deals that were far more than $25,000 per acre, such as Oasis Petroleum’s purchase of acreage it described as “core of the core” in the Delaware portion of the Permian. That $946 million purchase averaged $46,600 per net acre.
Investors have paid these kinds of premiums for Permian positions because it offers 2,500 feet of stacked play. That’s like having several “Bakken-style” layers on top of each other, Prudencio explained. And because Permian wells so far seem to have break-evens that are less than the Bakken.
However, a deeper dive into the numbers shows a somewhat different picture, and “Permania” is subsiding as these issues become more clear.
Much, much more at the link.

More evidence? See this post on BHP.

Notes to the Granddaughters

It was in the fall of 1989, I suppose, our last year in England, when I started reading out Twin Peaks in Newsweek magazine. I was not a bit disappointed when I saw the show. We were back in Germany when the Twin Peaks premiered, so I have no idea when I first saw the series. But I loved it then, and I still love it.

As I watched the video above, the first series I thought of, Netflix's House of Cards and Hitchcock, in general.

Top Ten "Oil Blogs" -- DrillingInfo -- July 28, 2018

From drillinginfo:
Top Bakken oil blogs:

Meanwhile, a google search of "oil blogs" results in 48,600,000 hits and the MDW blog is on the middle of page 5.  Many of the "hits" that rank higher are not even current any more including the much ballyhooed "oildrum" blog, a peak oil theory blog.

Top 60 oil blogs here. Scrolling through quickly I did not see any "Bakken-specific" blogs. What a shame.

Top Stories Updated -- July 28, 2018

Note: the top stories, by month, is now current -- through June, 2018.

"Operator of the year": the three top contenders --
  • MRO - re-fracks; Bailey oil field
  • CLR - EUR-type curves for all optimized fracks now exceed 1.1 million boe
  • Newfield -- Filloon commentary
Bakken story of the year: three top contenders
  • Comebakken -- Bloomberg
  • DAPL
  • Bakken vs the Permian 

Global Warming, What Global Warming? -- I Thought Hudson Bay Was Ice-Free -- July 28, 2018

Wind: Before we get to the Hudson Bay story, a global warming story closer to home. Texas regulator rejected a permit request from AEP for what would have been the largest wind farm in the country, a $4.5 billion project, the 2,000 MW Wind Catcher. This works out to an astounding $2.25 million / MW in a state in which there is a glut of natural gas -- and, oh, by the way, a state that easily handled the recent record demand for electricity.

The company was also facing huge headwinds in Oklahoma, February 5, 2018.
Data points:
  • $4.5 billion / 2,000 MW = $2.25 millon / MW
  • cost savings per AEP: $4 billion in utility costs over 25 years; $4 billion / 25 years = $160 million / year / 30 million (population of Texas) = $5/Texas resident over 25 years -- you have to be kidding
  • "everyone" knows the costs would have been front-loaded -- which means that the savings, if any, would have come in the out years 
  • folks can't even predict the price of natural gas next month, much less 25 years from now
  • anyone telling me how much energy will over the next 25 years is full of hot air
  • already there is a perception that wind/solar are raising the cost of energy (right, wrong, indifferent -- that's the perception)
  • if one wants to see how wind energy can totally screw up a country's electric grid, click on "road-to-Australia," a tag at the bottom of the
  • Texas, like Wyoming, has a thriving oil and gas industry; Wyoming is already dealing with it; it looks like Texas is also dealing with wind vs oil
  • I thought the price of renewable energy construction was going down; back in 2016, the EIA said average cost for new wind power project: $2 million / MW -- note the Wind Catcher project, $2.25 million in one of the low-cost states, Texas
  • From an August 25, 2014, post, this is 30-second sound bite for "cost of renewable megawatt":
    • Solar: $3 million / MW
    • Wind: $2.5 million / MW
    • Natural gas: $865,000 / MW

Fire: out in the far west. 

Ice: what would it mean if the Hudson Bay was ice-free year 'round?

Also, from
Hi Robert,
I’m in Puvirnituk, Nunavik, and the merchant ships had to call in the ice breaker to open the water ways to get out of the Hudson Bay.
I can see the ice breaker in the distance. It is sitting there waiting for the boats to finish unloading.
When asked about the ice everyone is saying it’s not normal this time of year.
Have a nice day.
Sidney B.
It's late July (2018) and they are still calling in ice breakers in Hudson Bay.

Even in Australia, "climate change" is a ratings killer -- everyone is so bored to death of the sermon. And, more: turn off all wind and solar at 6:00 p.m. (peak energy demand) -- it makes no difference -- except less migratory and protected birds would be killed.

And maybe that's why "global warming" is hardly a blip in the minds of Americans, in fact, "global warming/climate change" is not even on the list, from Gallup:

Global Warming? What, Me Worry?

Buying High, Selling Low -- The BHP US Shale Story Comes To An End -- July 28, 2018


August 2, 2018: BP's $10.5 billion BHP shale deal signals 'bold return' to lower 48 -- Rigzone -- August 2, 2018

Original Post

BP to buy BHP shale assets for more than $10 billion -- The Wall Street Journal.
BP acquiring the bulk of BHP’s operations in some of the hottest shale acreage in the U.S. BP will buy the bulk of BHP Billiton Ltd.’s BHP 1.42% U.S. onshore oil-and-gas unit for $10.5 billion, as the U.K. oil major rebuilds in the U.S. after the Deepwater Horizon disaster and BHP exits a business it has called a costly and mistimed investment. 
The sale accelerates a reshuffling of assets among global energy companies as oil prices surge to levels not seen since 2014. 
Chesapeake Energy Corp. aid Thursday it is selling oil-and-gas fields in Ohio for $2 billion, while Royal Dutch Shell has nearly completed a $30 billion asset-sale program begun after its roughly $50 billion acquisition of BG Group in 2016. 
It takes the total value of global oil-and-gas acquisitions unveiled in 2018 to almost $188 billion, closing in on last year’s $287 billion.
As an aside, these two notes:
From The Archives
Shell is said to have bid for BHP's US shale assets -- June 19, 2018 

Former head of corporate affairs for BHP Billiton confirmed by US Senate committee to be US State Department's head of energy -- May 17, 2018

BHP to accelerate plans to sell $10 billion US shale unit -- February 20, 2018

Taking a bath -- August 24, 2017

US shale operators eye world conquest -- The Telegraph -- August 23, 2017 

At $60,000 / acre in the Permian it might have been a tad expensive; BHP will sell its US shale assets -- August 22,2017

Poorly timed $20 billion shale deal -- outgoing chairman -- June 30, 2017

Floyd Wilson, Petrohawk Energy, BHP, and Halcon -- September 18, 2013 

KOG and BEXP in play after BHP buys Petrohawk -- July 15, 2011

Where it all began: three reasons why BHP was able and willing to buy Petrohawk at 65% premium; SeekingAlpha contributor -- smart move by BHP to pay $60,000 acre for Permian assets -- July 15, 2011


The July, 2011, articles in SeekingAlpha are still available without a subscription.

This from Part I, the "heady" days of the Bakken boom (the entire article has been archived):
BHP Billiton agreed to pay $15B ($12B in cash and $3B in assumed debt) for Petrohawk late Thursday July 14, 2011. This amounted to $37.25/share. A huge premium given HK closed Thursday at $23.49/share. This effectively raises the prices on all of the oil leases in the major oil shale plays. HK had its acreage spread between the Haynesville, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian Basin. Most of its assets were in natural gas.
The most recent major buys in the Eagle Ford were for approximately $20,000 per acre. The most recent major buy in the Bakken was for approximately $17,000 per acre. These prices are far above the prices of just 1-2 years ago. These were probably $2000/acre or lower. Many oil exploration stocks with lease holdings in these areas are now far undervalued on a mark-to-market basis. A few of the companies that look like attractive buyout targets are: Northern Oil and Gas Inc., Magnum Hunter Resources Corp., Triangle Petroleum Corp., Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp., and GeoResources Inc. 
NOG has 162,000 net acres in the Bakken. MHR has 81,250 net acres in the Bakken and 25,046 net acres in the Eagle Ford. MHR also has 91,870 net acres in the Appalachian Basin of which 56,595 net acres are overlying the Marcellus Shale.
Upon completion of the NGAS and NuLoch acquisitions, MHR will have 397,020 net acres in Appalachia, 81,250 net acres in the Bakken, and 51,423 other net acres, which include 50,680 net Alberta acres.
TPLM has 72,000 net acres in the Bakken with plans to extend that to 100,000 net acres by the end of 2011. TPLM also has 412,924 net acres in a Nova Scotia play.
KOG has 70,000 net acres in the Bakken, 413,00 net acres in the Windsor Block of Nova Scotia, Canada, and 7,000 net acres in the Green River Basin.
GEOI has 46,000 net acres in the Bakken, and 24,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford. GEOI also has 29,000 net acres in the Giddings Field -- Austin Chalk, 2,585 net acres of HBP and 534 net acres of owned minerals in the St. Martinville Field, and 14,000 gross acres in the Quarantine Field in LA.

Week 30: July 22, 2018 -- July 28, 2018

If I was going to spend one hour on anything today (with regard to the blog), it would be the COP earnings report.

Another incredible week, highlights --
Perhaps the biggest "post" of the week was the one regarding the spectacular MRO wells in Bailey oil field.

Reminder: a reader asked whether to "buy" or "hold." FYI only.

The Bakken

MRO's incredible DUCs in Bailey oil field;
Slawson, MRO report huge completed DUCs
MRO re-fracks in Bailey oil field
New CLR wells produces 150K BOE in thee months
The Christensen -- another phenomenal MRO re-frack
More MRO re-fracks

Bakken economy
Huge Legacy Fund deposit for July, 2018 

The US is THE global swing producer

BP's Annual Global Energy Report Released In June, 2018

For the archives.

Link here for the report. Key takeaways:
  • growth in overall energy demand is up
  • gains in energy intensity are down
  • coal consumption grew for the first time in four years (mostly India; lesser extent China)
  • most striking of all, carbon emissions are up after three consecutive years of little or no growth
Most fun: looking at how even this report is politicized:
  • Fox News notes that the US led the world in cutting global emissions of CO2 -- assuming that even matters (you will have to find that on your own -- google app won't link Fox News -- but this is the URL for those who care:
  • meanwhile,  Axios doesn't even mention the US