Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- Thursday, September 12, 2024

Locator: 48568CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC. 

HIV: Gilead now has twice-a-year injection that "completely" prevents HIV. Color me impressed.

McDonald's: still my favorite hamburger. And no one else offers a better French fry. Period. Dot. Don't go out much any more. Maybe once every six months. Unless I'm traveling. Without question, McD's number one competitor is Chipotle and long term the latter will win out. See fifth largest economy in the world below -- their restaurant? Chipotle.

I was pleasantly surprised by the McDonald's I visited last night. Footprint about half the size of a typical McDonald's. Couldn't see the kitchen. All kiosks for ordering. Frank-Lloyd-Wright minimalist when it comes to front counter ordering. McDonald's of the future? For me, it really, really works. It no longer matters what language is spoken. It's all pictures. And numbers less than 10. From Reddit today:

Grocery inflation, link here. If you're not seeing this where you shop, your grocer is price gouging. I shop regularly at Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Tom Thumb / Albertson's -- and it's amazing how much prices vary. One of the four is consistently pricier. 

US Latino GDP hits $3.6 trillion. Fifth largest economy in the world. Currently leads GDP of India, France, and UK; will soon surpass GDP of Japan and Germany. Should be a business conversation, not a political conversation. But when the US Latino GDP surpasses the GDP of India that gets my attention. American exceptionalism.

Trump's alma mater: MAGA acolytes should prefer Harris' proposal over that of Trump's. Link here. Deficit estimates. Deficit increases this much under each of their proposals:

• Trump: increases the deficit by $6 trillion
• Harris: increases the deficit by $1 trillion
• but most MAGA folks are a lot smarter than Penn's Wharton so this projection won't resonate.
• childless cat ladies and pet-eating immigrants live rent-free in MAGA minds. 
  

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Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.

The Market And Energy Page, T+9 -- March 9, 2018

Trade war? What trade war? Ya gotta love Trump. He knows how to play the game. I'm sure "The Apprentice" helped. He learned how to "stage" cliff-hangers -- not just at the end of the season; or, at the end of an episode; but, every 12 - 15 minutes, at the end of each segment of that television show. He's carried that over to the Oval Office.

He announces something that seems extreme -- or at least the press releases something he supposedly said that seems extreme -- and then when you hear it directly from him, it's not so extreme; and then, when it's finally "pen to paper" it's even less extreme.

That "30% tariff on steel; 10% tariff on aluminum"?

Turns out that:

• it's 25% tariff on steel -- not as bad as advertised
• 10% tariff on aluminum -- anyone complaining about a half-cent on a can of beer is ...
• some countries were exempt at the "signing"
• all countries can negotiate better terms -- all countries can negotiate better terms
• Gary Cohn exposed Trump for what he is: a friend of Main Street; an enemy of Wall Street; remember, Donald Trump was a registered Democrat from 2001 to 2009

What's the problem? Where's the trade war.

Boeing: the only company that might have had a legitimate gripe. Share price for one year and for one morning (today):

Give me a break. Gary Cohn truly showed his colors. Good riddance.

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Notes To The Granddaughters

The three books I'm looking at today:

Mary Shelley, Miranda Seymour, c. 2000.

Yesterday, I read much of the following book and took notes:

Mary Shelley: Romance and Reality, Emily W. Sunstein, c. 1989.

Author says this if the first complete or definitive biography of Mary Wollstonecraft Godwin Shelley -- the only stellar English Romantic author for whom there is no complete or definitive biography.

So, we can now compare the two biographies.

The Trojan War, Barry Strauss, c. 2006. Wow, I never get tired of reading and re-reading about Homer's Iliad and Odyssey.

And finally, Octopus: The Most Mysterious Creature in the Sea, Katherine Harmon Courage, c. 2013.

It's possible I've read these books (or parts of them) before, but I do not recall.

By the way, Sophia and I attended a college/high school play last night: "James and the Giant Peach." It was the first play that her older sister, a freshman in high school, had ever participated in. She played one of the actors.

It was incredible. We will go back and watch it again tonight.

Sophia, age 3.6 years old, appeared to be enthralled and actually paid close attention to the play. For those who don't know the play, there is a scene in which James is instructed to find a magic potion from a book and then cast a spell.

When we got home, on her own, my wife was lucky enough to get three photos of Sophia doing the same and explaining to May what she was doing. Until this morning when I told her, May did not know there was a scene in "James and the Giant Peach" that involved making a potion and casting a magic spell.

Here are the photos:

This is at Sophia's house. Not ours. Sophia is fortunate enough to live in a real house, a house big enough to play "tag" and/or "hide and seek." We live in a small two-bedroom apartment -- big enough to play "hide and seek" with a four-year-old, but not big enough to do so with a five-year-old.

Making America Great Again: North Dakota's Gate City Bank Announces Reinvestment Plan, Plus Bonus Check -- Specifically Cites Trump Tax Bill -- January 31, 2018

Link to article sent to me by a reader. Thank you very much.

In response to the GOP tax bill recently passed by Congress, Gate City Bank announced plans late last week to reinvest $1.6 million to benefit its employees, customers and the community.

Included in its plan is $625,000 in employee bonuses. According to a press release issued by Gate City, each employee will be hand-delivered a $1,000 bonus check on January 15, 2018.

Customers will benefit from the bank's plan to offer $500,000 in free home appraisals. According to Gate City Bank, an average appraisal is valued at $600.

Pretty amazing. Good for them. 

ONEOK Announces New NGL Pipeline; Montana To Kansas; $1.4 Billion -- Keeping America Great -- January 5, 2018

Updates

January 8, 2018: the ONEOK story is also at the Bismarck Tribune. At $1/bbl, 240,000 bbls/day, $1.2 billion, a reader notes that it will take more than 13 years to simply pay off the $1.2 billion. This suggests to me that ONEOK thinks

• fossil fuel will be around for a long, long time; and,
• the Bakken and DJ will be a huge source for NG for a long, long time.

Long, Long Time, Linda Ronstadt


January 8, 2018: another reader weighs in on this announcement, see comments:

Ethane right now is left with the methane stream except at Tioga Hess Plant, where the Vantage pipeline to Alberta takes it too a cracker. That line has a 68,000 barrels per day.

The new lines won't be able to accommodate ethane, so ethane cracking could be another industry courtesy of the Bakken.

Ethane doesn't have the value for long distances so it needs to be consumed locally.

January 6, 2018: see comments -

OneOK built a 12" NGL line from MT to SE Wyoming about 5 years ago.

If you look at a map of the new line it looks like it is parallel with the original. I wonder if it is in the same right of way?

The original line was designed to carry 60,000 BBL per day, then it was boosted to 110,000 barrels and then 165,000 BBL. You can see mention at this link http://bismarcktribune.com/bakken/oneok-investing-in-several-projects/article_b8147fa6-516d-11e3-8f2d-0019bb2963f4.html.

Pipeline builders would probably like to keep their intentions as quiet as possible until the line is built. As I recall the original line ran into some opposition in the area of the Bear Lodge Mountains around Devils Tower due to the line passing through an area with gyp rock.

With this much increased capacity to transport NGL out of the WB the future looks bright for future production growth it appears to me. New or expanded gas plants in the works also? Or maybe updated Central Tank Battery production facilities with pad drilling being the new source of NGL?

I've seen a few CTB sites the last couple times I was in Dunn County and they contain several what appears to be ASME code vessels with many pipes connected to each vessel. Do these mini processing plants strip volatile/liquids from the oil and the gas? Which end up in NGL pipelines? (http://www.oneok.com/~/media/ONEOK/Newsroom/ReleaseDocs/ElkCreekPipeline_Map.ashx) link to the map of the new line. [By the way, to open an "ashx document" use Adobe.]

Later, 1:27 p.m. CT:  see first comment --

Sending unfractionated NGLs - aka 'Y grade' out of the Bakken could have a significant positive impact on operators' financials.

Essentially, removing the methane from the gas stream (possibly 70% +/- of the total volume) enables the higher value liquids to be transported and processed via pipeline.
I think liquids are presently transported by rail.

Today's spot pricing at Belvieu, expressed in barrels ...

• Ethane ~$11/bbl.
• Propane ~ $40/bbl
• Butane ~ $42/bbl
• Pentanes ~ $58/bbl

Transportation and processing fees would come out of these figures, but, still, it adds up in addition to the methane price realized at the Northern Border transfer point.

Original Post

Every now and then a developer announces a small wind farm and the local media is all over it, talking about the "new" wind farm. At the other end of the continuum the oil and gas sector seems to announce a new billion-dollar project every week. And there's no fanfare. If it weren't for the company's press release, we would probably never hear about it.

If a Martian were to read all the energy stories in the mainstream media, the alien would get the feeling that fossil fuel industry is dead, replaced by wind and solar. Hardly.

Another example, sent by a reader: ONEOK Announces Plans to Increase Natural Gas Liquids Takeaway Capacity out of the Rocky Mountain Region, press release. Details:

• the Elk Creek pipeline
• from ONEOK's Riverview terminal in eastern Montana to Bushton, KS
• 900 miles, 20-inch diameter
• to be completed by end of next year (2019)
• capacity: 240,000 bbls/day of unfractionated NGLs
• the pipeline: $1.2 billion
• related infrastructure costs: $200 million
• with additional pump facilities, capacity will increase to 400,000 bpd

TransCanada pipeline operational. Data points:

• Leach XPress
• 160 mile; 1.5 billion cubic feet/day
• will supply gas to Southeast and Gulf Coast markets
• had received approval from FERC on January 9, 2017

US Economy -- Making America Great Again -- July 15, 2017

A few days ago I said that if I had the time I would come back to this story:

Connecting dots: if I'm in the mood later this weekend, I will blog a stand-along post on this very interesting phenomenon.

• truck industry -- particularly the specialty truck industry booming -- personal e-mail
• Trump presidency -- again, a personal e-mail
• the FAST Act
• update on the SPR release

This is how it all started, this paragraph buried in a long RBN Energy post:

Potentially even more significant than the recent impact of the SPR is the outlook for future draws at the reserve. In addition to the Section 404 and 21^st Century Cures Act withdrawals discussed above, Congress also has authorized additional SPR withdrawals in 2018-25.

Section 403 of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2015 directs the DOE to sell a total of 58 MMbbl over that period, starting with 5 MMbbl in 2018, with the resulting revenue to go to the Treasury Department’s general fund.

And the Fix America’s Surface Transportation Act, signed into law by President Obama in December 2016, calls for a total of 66 MMbbl to be sold from the SPR in 2023-25. Figure 3 shows the planned SPR drawdowns over the next eight years.

Obama's Fix America's Surface Transportation Act: FAST. Literally signed into law the very last month of President Obama's presidency.

Two interesting links follow from the above:

• April heavy-duty truck orders signal continued industry recovery, May 3, 2017
• March heavy-duty trucker orders solidify industry recovery, April 5, 2017

Personal communication with worker at a specialty heavy truck manufacturer in Portland Oregon:

• orders higher than usual in April, May time frame; backlog building; may need to increase workforce
• normally, orders "come in" in the fall, so this is unusual to get so many new orders at this time
• directly related to states across the US ordering more heavy trucks for all the highways being built; expanded; re-surfaced; etc

But this was the kicker: the individual reported that the company did not make the decision to go forward with increased production UNTIL after Trump was elected president. The company apparently waited until the election outcome to decide whether to increase production.

I learned of the Portland story a week or so before I read the blurb in the RBN Energy post, so I was keeping my eye out for collaborating information. It was interesting to find it buried in an RBN Energy post. So much fun.

Update On Western North Dakota Fertilizer Plant -- November 12, 2016

From The Dickinson Press, data points:

• $500 million urea fertilizer plant
• construction began in 2014; now past the halfway mark
• location: within the sprawling industrial complex of Basin Electric Power Cooperative's Dakota Gasification Plant, northwest of Beulah in far western North Dakota
• the gasification plant: home of four power plants; two lignite coal mines; and the synfuels plant
• Mercer County: noted a substantial rise in taxable sales at a time when that metric plummeted across North Dakota
• new Coyote Creek mine noted in the story
• due to huge summer storm on July 3, 2016, the project was set back several months
• now scheduled to open in early 2018

I sure hope Trump sets out on a tour of the US when he visits those sites where America is already great. His first stop: the Bakken; the DAPL; the BEPC industrial complex; the steakhouse in Watford City.

Note: a reader, who has worked at the site, sent me this note:

It is more correct to say that Mercer County is the home of four power plants: Stanton Station, Leland Olds, Coyote and Antelope Valley Station.

Antelope Valley, BEPC, is "across the fence" from the gasification plant/synthetic fuels plant (one and the same), that shares some facilities with AVS.

The GP/SF plant has several components: ~ 137.5  mmscfd natural gas, plus CO2 for EOR, NH3, and numerous other by-products (see Dakota Gas website).

I had completely forgotten this fact about the plant: the Great Plains Synfuels Plant is home to the largest CO2 capture project in the world.