Saturday, June 1, 2019

Update On Case #27556 To Decrease Number Of Wells From 22 To 2 In Various Spacing Units -- June 1, 2019

This takes us back to a comment from a reader and my reply to that comment over at the post on the June, 2019, hearing dockets. Original note archived.

A reader noted that Slawson was requesting to drop the number of wells from 22 wells to 2 wells in several spacing units. The reader was concerned that this had to do with changes in what geologists thought the Bakken could do -- whether 22 wells in one spacing unit made economic sense -- at least that was my take on the reader's comment.

The case regarding dropping from 22 to 2 wells: case #27556, a continuation case (first scheduled, May 23, 2019, page 3). on Hearing Dockets For June, 2019. Here is a screenshot of that case:

The reader wrote:
In response to case #27556, a continuation case, on the NDIC docket for Thursday, June 27, 2019, request to amend previous submission from 22 wells to 2: hopefully this was just someone's twitchy fingers and not a serious miscalculation.
So, here we go: The hearing docket case was not a typographical error. I am being told that the case as published is correct, and that the original request for 22 wells on various spacing units was also correct.

So, before we go further.

It's my observation that the NDIC makes very few typographical errors in their daily activity reports. When they do make an error, it is generally of little "material" value, and it is corrected very, very quickly, usually within one business day.

It's also my observation that the NDIC has "never" made a typographical error in their monthly hearing docket agendas. I put the "never" in quotes: I'm sure readers can find a typographical error in the dockets, but I don't recall any in the ten years I've been posting summaries of these agendas.

So, I was greatly remiss suggesting there might have been a typographic error in Case #27556.

The case is accurate.

The bottom line: I am being told that this has nothing to do with the geology or the prospects of the Bakken. In that regard, nothing has changed. Slawson is making the change for other reasons, to include but not limited to: minimize the chance of leaving stranded oil by less-than-optimal drilling / completion strategies. This drilling unit is under the water and Slawson is looking for an innovative method to reach the farthest edges of the unit.

Slawson filed for new, extended spacing units but EOG would be the operator. Slawson is asking the NDIC to extend the EOG original 2.5-mile spacing units to three miles to include acreage that would otherwise be stranded.

Slawson had previously extended its 2- and 2.5-mile spacing units to 3 and 3.5 miles to capture some of the acreage from the west and is just asking that EOG extend their laterals from the east shore to do their part to capture the rest.

Slawson has already drilled 24 three- and 3.5-mile laterals to capture most of the middle of the lake acreage. So now if the NDIC agrees with Slawson, EOG will capture the acreage that was too far for Slawson to reach.

The Bakken never ceases to amaze me.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination -- Polls -- June 1, 2019

Link here.

Previous poll post.

New poll.

I used to say that these polls don't mean a thing. I'm wrong. These polls will correlate directly with campaign contributions, and they will determine who is on the debate stage. The trends are important.

So, the previous poll: May 29, 2019:
  • Biden down slightly at 34.8%
  • Bernie down slightly at 16.4%
  • Warren still can't get to 10%: 9.8%
  • Harris slips slightly: 7.4%
  • Buttigieg down ever so slightly: 6.0%
  • Beto still flailing: 3.8%.
  • Others cracking the 1% threshold, taking a bit from Biden/Bernie. I hope they all get on stage.
Today, new poll:
  • Biden: unchanged, at 35%
  • Bernie: unchanged, at 16.5%
  • Pocahontas: still can't get to 10%; slips to 9.0% -- unlikely to be statistically significant, but a real setback for Pocahontas who admitted this week "she is not a person of color; she is not a member of a tribe"
  • Harris: unchanged at 7.5%
  • So, if nothing has changed among the top four, who gained among the minor players? Apparently no one.
  • Buttigieg down to 5.8% -- statistically insignificant but ... see below ...
  • Beto: unchanged at 3.8%; put a fork in his campaign; it's over
This is quite incredible. Shows how the media is biased and tries to skew "stuff" that doesn't exit. Yes, the mayor may have $7 million and may be hiring new staff, but his polling numbers are going nowhere. Wait until his donors see the most recent numbers. LOL.
Buttigieg’s poll numbers have risen along with his payroll. A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted from May 20 to May 26 found him tied for fourth place among the nearly two dozen Democratic candidates running for president at 7 percent, along with Sen. Kamala Harris. Ahead of those two, the poll found, are former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
In fact, not.

Week 22: May 26, 2019 -- June 1, 2019

Of note:
Top  international non-energy story: Pemex to get even more tax breaks;

Top international energy story: WTI plummets; trades below $54

Top national non-energy story: Wall Street and Main Street diverge.

Top national energy story  Supreme Court won't hear pipeline eminent domain case;

Top ND non-energy story:

Top ND energy story:  
Top ND energy stories, Geoff Simon
  • Land Board okays grant for Williston School
  • Williams County receives grant for road improvement
  • NDIC approves slurry disposal wells
  • Oil industry growth will boost electricity demand
  • McKenzie County well breaks nation’s IP record -- McKenzie County Farmer 
  • KLJ contracted for survey of North Dakota's Missouri River mineral acres -- Bismarck Tribune 
  • Affordable housing dampening potential in western ND -- Williston Herald
  • Smoke and haze troubling for Minot region, source is Alberta wildfires -- Minot Daily News 
  • Wheels already in motion on Theodore Roosevelt presidential library -- Fargo Forum
  • Hitting the open road, vehicle usage at all-time high and travel volume increases -- IER 
  • Hundreds of construction projects on North Dakota roads this summer -- Fargo Forum  
Bakken 101
Bakken economy

CLR Weydahl Wells In Corral Creek Have Been Updated -- June 1, 2019

The CLR Weydahl wells have been updated; this is an incredible group of wells for CLR. Well worth studying.

A Couple Of CLR Mildred Wells Show A Slight Jump In Production -- June 1, 2019

The CLR Milded wells are tracked here.

A couple of Mildred wells showed a small jump in production. In the big scheme of things, doesn't amount to much but again, another example of the unpredictability of the Bakken. That "decline rate" continues to be of interest.

Another CLR Morris Well Has Just Reported -- June 1, 2019

The CLR Carson/Morris wells are tracked here.

This well has just been fracked and is reporting:
  • 35109, 956, CLR, Morris 7-26H2, 29 stages, 7.7 million lbs, Oakdale, t4/19; cum 22K after 21 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Note: 22,378 after 21 days extrapolates to 31,968 bbls/30-day.

Other wells of interest now that this newest Morris well is reporting:
  • 17334, 811, CLR, Morris 1-23H, t11/08/ cum 276K 6/18; another re-frack candidate; off-line 5/18; back on line as of 6/18; back on line as of 4/19; looks like a pretty significant halo effect; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, t5/11; cum 659K 6/18; nice production profile (5/18); huge jump in production;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 35272, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 4-35HSL, Oakdale, confidential but producing;
  • 35273, conf, CLR, Carson Peak 5-35H2, Oakdale, confidential but producing;

Graphics For The Hess AN-Bohmbach Wells Posted -- June 1, 2019

Graphics for the Hess AN-Bohmbach wells have now been posted.

See this post for background.

The Hess AN-Bohmbach Wells

The graphics:

The wells:

The five Hess AN-Bohmbach wells on one pad:
  • 35091, 3,237, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-10, Sanish, t5/19; cum 80K in less than 3 months; cum 194K 10/20;
  • 35092, 3,019/IAW, ... H-9; Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 122K 5/20; remains off line 10/20;
  • 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, 35 stages, 10 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 308K 10/20;
  • 35094, 2,578, ... H-7; has produced 12,890 bbls in 10 days which extrapolates to 37,670 bbls in the first month; t4/19; cum 184K 10/20;
  • 35095, 3,807, ... H-6; has produced 25,890 bbls in 14 days which extrapolates to 55,479 bbls in the first month; t4/19; cum 283K 10/20;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Neighboring wells, to the east, not shown in the graphics above:
  • 19723, off line since 1/19; t10/11; cum 454K 10/20;
  • 23287, off line since 1/19; t4/13; cum 181K 10/20;; minimal production for four days in 4/19;
  • 23571, 1,290, off line since 1/19; t4/13; cum 243K 10/20; minimal production for four days in 4/19; remains off line 3/20; just came back online for three days, 10/20;
  • 23572, never taken off line while #35093 was fracked; t5/13; cum 196K 10/20; no evidence of halo effect;
  • 23573, never taken off line while #35093 was fracked; t5/13; cum 338K 10/20; no evidence of halo effect;
Neighboring well, to the west, not shown in the graphic above:
  • 33249, 1,748, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-LW-153-94-2215H-1, Elm Tree, t10/17; cum 417K 10/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Note -- June 1, 2019


June 3, 2019: correcting an error. From a reader:
The "oil and gas division" of the NDIC was not involved in this MRO case. The Marathon decision was by the ND Board of Trust Lands. This Board among other duties manages the state-owned minerals [as well as surface ownership and other responsibilities].
This is the link that takes one to minerals management by the Board: This is a separate entity from the Oil and Gas Division of the Industrial Commission. 
My comments regarding my appreciation for the NDIC still hold. And it sounds like the ND Board of Trust Lands also deserves my praise for moving things along without unnecessary delays.

Original Note 

One of the "things" I've appreciated about the NDIC is this: it's my impression the NDIC moves along at a pretty good clip, not taking months or years to make a decision. Most recent case in point: MRO and request for another extension on a lease. [This is an error: see June 3, 2019, update above.]

I think the NDIC heard the case on May 30, 2019, and on May 31, 2019, we got the decision.

I might not have the exact dates right but for armchair pundits it was on/about May 30, 2019, that we started reading the story in media outlets. The next day: boom, the decision. 

The NDIC didn't set up another committee or working group to study the issue. The NDIC didn't table the issue for another month. The NDIC didn't poll the public; no speeches. Nothing. They heard the case and the next day announced their decision.

Right, wrong, or indifferent (and in this case, it's hard to disagree with the NDIC), MRO got their answer.

On another note, MRO did have a pad in the area they could have used to solve their problem. The location of that pad was not good and a well drilled from that pad would have left up to 25% of the oil in the drilling unit "stranded" but at least it would have "bought them time." They would have held their lease by production and could continue to work the issue of a better location for a multi-well pad.

For background:
Salmon For Dinner

A Flashback -- To A Time When Atmospheric CO2 Was Not A Concern -- June 1, 2019

From The Deplorable Climate Science Blog:

I don't remember that particular month of May but I do remember all the "heat" stories coming out of Chicago and NYC back in the 60's. Many, many people (mostly the elderly) dying of heal-related issues. We really don't hear such stories any more.

Bjorn Lomborg at The Wall Street Journal

Link here.  

I'm in good company.