Friday, February 17, 2017

Nine Producing Wells (DUCs) Reported As Completed; Fifteen Permits Renewed -- February 17, 2017

Active rigs: isn't this interesting -- 40 active rigs today matches the number of active rigs one year ago --

Active Rigs4040135185181

Two new permits:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Alkali Creek (Mountrail)
  • Comment:
Fifteen permits renewed:
  • Whiting (6): three Privratsky permits in Stark County; three Charging Eagle permits in Dunn County
  • Petro-Hunt (5): five USA wells in McKenzie County
  • Newfield ((3): two Orvis State permits, one Gariety permit, all in McKenzie County
  • BR: a State Veeder permit, McKenzie County
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 29928, 1,420, Statoil, Paulson 36-1 5TFH, Briar Creek, t1/17; cum --
  • 31037, 785, Statoil, Vachal 3-34 8TFH, Alger, t1/17; cum --
  • 31584, 482, Statoil, Jack 21-16 XW 1H, East Fork, t1/17; cum --
  • 31585, 594, Statoil, Ruth 28-33 8TFH, East Fork, t1/17; cum --
  • 31838, 1,267, CLR, Charlotte 7X-22H, Banks, 4 sections, 30 stages; 14.6 million lbs, t1/17; cum --
  • 32137, 900, EOG, Ross 106-0915H, Alger, t2/17; cum --
  • 32138, 1,352, EOG, Ross 42-0915H, Alger, t2/17; cum --
  • 32140, 854, EOG, Ross 43-0915H, Alger, t2/17; cum --
  • 32905, 1,984, Statoil, Charlie Sorenson 17-8 XE 1H-R, Chimney Butte, t12/16; cum 7K 12/16;
Rig Count

Actually, the active rig count was 39 at least at one point during the day one year ago, February 17, 2016 (the number of active rigs are tracked here):

Active Rigs39135185181197

The Political Page, Part 2, T+28 -- February 17, 2017


Later, 8:08 p.m. Central Time: seeing the "Make America Great Again" rally in Florida today -- my immediate thought -- before this is all over, the press and President Trump are going to be great friends, agreeing to disagree, except for a few really, really alt-right reporters. But as in any negotiation, he and they will meet each other half-way. Both gain from the "interchange." Ratings have probably never been higher for talk shows, on both sides.

Original Post
The seven stages of grief:
  • disbelief
  • denial
  • bargaining
  • guilt
  • anger
  • depression
  • acceptance
Four years may not be long enough for some people to get through all seven stages; if not, another four years might be necessary. LOL.

I think most members of the mainstream media and some of the left (but not the alt-left) are moving through the seven stages in lock-step, but if we see some real success stories in the American economy by 2020, one can imagine some members of the mainstream media (like, perhaps, some reporters for The WSJ) will move to the seventh stage.

Professional politicians, on both sides of the aisle, were able to move through steps 1 and 2 very, very quickly. These professionals quickly moved into "bargaining" ("Schumer obstructionism").

My hunch is that most on the left (and all alt-left folks) will get to the sixth stage and then find themselves in a "never-ending stage-5-through-stage-6 loop."

Where we are now:
  • disbelief -- some, particularly those in Hollywood and in DC, are still in disbelief
  • denial -- by the end of February, 2017, most will be past this stage
  • bargaining -- manifested by "Schumer obstructionism"
  • guilt -- Lena Dunham, "Girls" -- TV series -- in Rolling Stone magazine and guilt about her role in Hillary's loss; most alt-left will never experience this stage, going directly to the next stage
  • anger -- most alt-left moved quickly from disbelief and denial to anger; professional alt-left politicians remain mired in "Schumer obstructionism"
  • depression -- the "cupcakes" and "snowflakes" went from stage 1 to stage 6 overnight.
  • acceptance -- ah, the true alt-left will never get here; some mainstream reporters might

Boomtown Administrator's February, 2017, Newsletter

From David Tuan, Williston, ND, City Administrator at this link.

A Coal Story -- February 17, 2017


Later, 1:12 p.m. Central Time: Scott Pruitt was confirmed. Talk about an incredibly busy day for the president. He flies down to South Carolina. Tours the new Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner. He took his two grandchildren on the helicopter that he flew on while their parents flew on the other helicopter. How much fun was that? Now, as I understand it, he will fly down to Mar-A-Lago. I thought he was going to sign another executive order today, but maybe not.
Original Post
"They" say that the "EPA" executive order that President Trump will sign later today -- if Scott Pruitt is confirmed as the head of the EPA -- will literally suck the air out of the room.

One wonders.

Today in The Wall Street Journal: Arizona plant poses first test of Trump's support for coal sector. Navajo Nation president appeals to the White House to facility from shutdown.
President Donald Trump’s promise to help the coal industry could be facing its first big test: the decision earlier this week to close a large Arizona coal-burning power plant, and a demand that Mr. Trump prevent that shutdown.
Majority owners of the Navajo Generating Station in Page, Ariz., one of the biggest coal plants in the country, said this week they won’t keep running the plant after 2019 because it is more economic to buy natural-gas-fired electricity than to generate power by burning coal. These kinds of market-driven decisions, rather than regulations, have driven down coal use across North America in recent years.
The plant, which opened in 1974, has also been under growing pressure to reduce its emissions.
But the president of the Navajo Nation—whose reservation is home to both the plant and the coal mine that serves it—says his tribe opposes the plant’s closure and the loss of 800 jobs that depend on it.

Gasoline Demand -- Back On Track? -- February 17, 2017

Global Warming?

Bakken 2.0: Another Well With Modest Bump In Production After Shut-In -- February 17, 2017

The well:
  • 16327, 786, MRO, Benz 14-21H, t9/10; cum 281K 12/16:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


The graphic raises another obvious question. What about #16726?


Later. I completely missed this the first time when I was looking at the production profile for #16327. When I went to the map, I saw #16726, and I was curious about its production profile (I could almost guess). Here it is:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

But in this case, it was a re-frack. It was fracked 12/10 - 12/2015, according to FracFocus. The file report shows that it was a 30-stage frack, 3 million lbs of sand re-frac. The reason this well was off-line so long was because a sundry report received November, 2014: "Marathon has decided to extend the lateral in this well prior to running a liner with frac sleeves in this wells beefore fe-fracing this well. The liner will be run from approximately 9,900' MD to the new TD at ~20,931' MD."

The initial frack was an open hole frack with 561,200 lbs of sand in late December, 2007.

Bakken 2.0: Random Update Of A Re-Fracked MRO Well -- February 17, 2017

Permitted for re-entry: 16439, 373, MRO, Hecker 21-5H, Murphy Creek, t9/07; re-fracked; cum 223K 12/16;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Now, Where's That Story On The Trump Press Conference? -- T+28 -- February 17, 2017

Taken by her grandmother who is taking care of the granddaughters this weekend while both parents are at work: one out of town for three days; the other with four 12-hour shifts back-to-back. These photos are not posed. While this was going on, I was driving the older granddaughters to school.

Delighted: the Trump presidential press conference yesterday was the most watched presidential press conference (live, repeat) in the history of presidential press conferences. 

The Political Page, T+28 -- February 17, 2017

Chicago: screenshot from The Drudge Report today:

Boeing: no union at Charleson, SC, facility -- employees overwhelmingly defeat effort to unionize. President Trump will visit the facility later today. After he signs an EPA executive order that will suck the air out of the room -- Fox News

Lied to our faces. a talking head responding to New York Times says folks should have done a psychiatric analysis of President Obama -- telling us "he lied to our faces." I wrote that years ago; someone must be reading the blog -- "The Obama legacy: knowing that you lied straight-faced while I cried, still I look to find a reason to believe." (see first comment)

Reason To Believe, Rod Stewart

Can't We Just Get Along?

Dead. Broke. Dead-broke: Michigan utility withdraws plans for electric vehicle charging network
A Michigan utility has withdrawn its plans for a $15 million statewide electric vehicle infrastructure network following concerns raised over the past several months by state officials, clean energy advocates and the private sector.
Filed in March 2016, Consumers Energy’s plan was the first significant proposal by a Michigan utility to promote EV adoption. It called for 810 fast-charging and standard AC-charging stations in major metro areas across Consumers’ Lower Peninsula service territory. The proposed capital costs were $6 million for 60 DC fast-charge stations and $9 million for 750 AC stations, to be funded by ratepayers.
When I first read this article, I thought this initiative failed because the state was broke, but I was surprised that the environmentalists seemed to be the least cooperative. This suggests that the three parties involved each wanted a bigger cut of the financial pie. When the parties could not accept other parties getting a bigger share of the pie, they were unable to come to a compromise. If a relatively small state like Michigan can't get this done -- does anyone really think California can do this?

Delay: obstruction by the alt-left; cabinet still not in place -- a full month has now gone by. Nothing like this has ever been seen. Political theater. The big news today: anti-climate-change Scott Pruitt will be confirmed for EPA today. 

Rolling Away: if you don't subscribe to Rolling Stone you probably have not noticed that the magazine is going the way of the Cheshire Cat. The magazine has shrunk in size (width x length), and is incredibly thin. It also has very, very few ad pages; I think it's in trouble. This week issue is a double issue RS 1281/1282 and this is Rolling Stone's 50th Anniversary year. The double issue has fewer pages than any issue I've seen. Big story: another multi-page look at Bob Dylan. Must be a really, really slow news period in music. Thinking about it, I did not even see anything in the entire issue regarding the biggest music story of the decade: Apple. If there was an Apple iTunes ad (and I'm sure there was) I missed it. The lead story: Bruce Springsteen takes on Donald Trump. Okay. That will sell a lot of issues.

Poll. Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll. 55% approval rating. "Higher than President Reagan at same point in his presidency." Just saying.

Press conference: "everyone" loved it -- even those who don't particularly like President Trump. I was fortunate enough to have had a very, very close friend during graduate school who was from New York City, and then, again, an incredible USAF commander friend, who was also from NYC. One really needs to know the pugnaciousness of a typical alpha male from NYC to understand that press conference. I believe the president when he says he was having a lot of fun. He only appeared angry and serious because he "was an actor on the Presidential stage." I am surprised that The New York Times couldn't figure this out.

Among Republicans: 87% approval. Highest ever for a Republican president. Gallup. 9% approval rating among the opposition party.

Kidding? Kid Rock and Ted Nugent are both considering running for the US Senate. As Republicans in a Democratic state.

WSJ vs CIA: the former says intelligence agencies are withholding vital intelligence from the president; the latter says that's not true. The intelligence agencies are simply "routing" all vital intelligence through the press in the way of leaks. So, both sides are correct. After the "intel" failures during the Obama administration, the spooks want journalists to vet their reports before the president sees those reports.

CNN: "fake news" is now "very fake news" -- President Trump. This one was great. Less than 24 hours earlier, WH CNN reporter said the fix was in -- that the president would no longer call on CNN or any other "mainstream media" outlets. Yesterday, President Trump called on CNN and let the journalist ask as many questions as he wanted -- and was completely owned by the president. Afterwards, the reporter said he loved the "give and take." Mostly he "gave," Trump "took."

The Energy And Market Page, T+28 -- February 17, 2017


February 18, 2017: Prince Salman's plan hitting lots of roadblocks. I wonder what the Las Vegas odds are on this IPO?
Original Post

Bigger, better: Fiat Chrysler will lay off 3,200 workers temporarily in Toledo while they re-tool for the next-generation Wrangler.  New investment: $700 million.

15,000 more jobs: Accenture announces plan to bring in 15,000 more US jobs. 

North Texas economy. Recently I've talked about the incredible economy around the DFW. Here's another example in this month's transportation update: the main highway along the south side of Grapevine/the north side of DFW/the north gateway to the airport -- huge project -- bridges, and highway lanes added; should be complete by April (2017); when complete the highway will be widened from 4 lanes to 6 lanes -- this portion is well west of the airport; cost $25 million. Meanwhile, the main highway along the east side of Grapevine, northeast of the airport, and the gateway to the airport from the north, is also being expanded, and should be completed by September (2017); when complete the highway will be widened from 4 lanes to 10 lanes; cost $60 million.  Another highway on same side of town, 4 to 6 lanes; construction has just begun; project to take three years; $40 million. In bullets, between Grapevine/DFW:
  • state highway 26 phase 2: $40 million, 3 years; just beginning
  • state highway 121 expansion: $60 million, almost complete; $60 million
  • state highway 114 widening: $25 million, halfway completed; $25 million
  • all within one county, driven by DFW and spa/resorts in Grapevine
Rumor: by the way, regarding the highway update above, that highway being expanded to 10 lanes -- original plans by the state were to widen the highway to 26 lanes -- studies of future needs suggested 26 lanes would be needed. The city said no: the city couldn't "give up" that much land. Interestingly, with turn lanes, exit/entrance lanes, frontage lanes -- awful close to 26 lanes. 

Peak Demand?  Are the Canadian oil sands a bust? High costs, low prices and tough new environmental rules forcing companies to cancel plans to produce oil. In a signal that the threat is growing more serious, Exxon Mobil Corp. is expected in the coming week to disclose that as much as 3.6 billion barrels of oil that it planned to produce in Canada in the next few decades is no longer profitable to extract.

Not so fast: Encana boosts capital spending by 50% amid oil recovery. Reuters via Rigzone.

Permian: can other basins ever catch up to the Permian's prosperity?  A Rigzone story.

Amazon. No, not the mail-order company, but Brazil. Russia's Rosneft starts drilling first exploration well in the Amazon (Brazil). Reuters via Rigzone.

Cash pile? OMV raises dividend by 20% as cash pile grows. Reuters via Rigzone.

DUCs: sooner or later, we should see more fracking. A reader's comment regarding one operator in the Bakken:
Moving to six rigs, 25 refracks planned in the Bakken. Hoping to have most of their production delivered on pipe. Major change in one or two quarters, must believe economics are now in their favor. I think they finally realized that more sand and sections per well is the answer.
Prince Salman's Plan

If you thought "repeal and replace" ObamaCare would be tough, the tea leaves suggest that will be child's play compared to the Saudi Aramco IPO. From Reuters:
  • original plan was to make Aramco "industrial conglomerate"
  • this could make valuation more complex, lower
  • authorities may "streamline" company
  • issues of tax, reserves, state ownership not yet resolved
  • state control over production decisions could worry investors
This IPO could still be scuttled, scaled back, or simply another "utility" with huge "regulation" by a 15th-century medieval theocracy.

The Market


After being down all day, about 60 - 80 points down all day, somehow the market managed to eke out a 5-point gain for the day, setting, of course, another record for the Dow. 


Opening: profit taking. Opens 70 points down.

Deere: huge gain in share price; crushes estimates, raises forecast. EPS, 61 cents vs 55 cents forecast; compares to 80 cents a year earlier.

Enbridge: posts 4Q profit; 4Q16 earnings, $330 million. EPS, 29 cents/share; adjusted, 42 cents/share. For the year, the company report net income of $1.55 billion, or $1.45/share, swinging to a profit in the period.

Taser: body cameras

The Opener, T+28 -- February 17, 2017

Active rigs: 

Active Rigs4040135185181

RBN Energy: strategic petroleum reserve add-ons, and why they're needed.

Scott Adams: how to evaluate a president.

Rasmussen daily presidential tracking poll: 55%.