Halo Effect In A CLR Well, Kukla In Chimney Butte -- April 29, 2022

I'm heading to bed. I could do this all night, but have to quit. 

Here's another well, almost ten years old and has a jump in production. Maybe I'll take a closer look tomorrow, but not tonight. 

The well:

• 20544, 1,301, CLR, Kukla 3-16H, Chimney Butte, s10/11; t4/12; cum 418K 5/18; cum 506K 5/21; recent production, look at the jump in production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	7889	7778	10951	6650	6273	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	6837	6690	14524	6040	5622	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	16	2262	2101	6489	1954	1741	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	10	2016	1813	2817	813	672	30
BAKKEN	10-2021	7	1	164	3086	736	0	681
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	11	619	817	357	741	619	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	26	2002	2039	1106	2042	1709	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	2281	2185	1280	2525	2121	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	2614	2813	1433	2649	2203	30
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	1998	1687	1338	1822	1427	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	23	1305	1360	1007	1256	948	15
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	1903	1964	1048	1776	1418	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	2244	2321	1220	2123	1679	25
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	2271	2044	1272	2099	1680	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	2223	2483	1385	1998	1497	96
BAKKEN	10-2020	17	891	818	595	751	512	20
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	1524	1556	968	1372	967	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	1781	1776	1132	1790	1029	342
BAKKEN	7-2020	30	1803	1547	1287	1575	1037	138
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	30	1544	1710	954	1632	1082	168

 ************************
A Musical Interlude

Living Next Door To Alice, Smokie

An Enerplus Fort Berthold Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 29, 2022

The well:

• 26323, 3,138, Enerplus/Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-22C-15-9H, Eagle Nest, t4/14; cum 424K 11/18; cum 534K 2/22; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2022	12	787	877	505	604	233	79
BAKKEN	1-2022	23	1865	1753	924	2256	1291	118
BAKKEN	12-2021	24	1654	1678	935	2257	1234	153
BAKKEN	11-2021	23	1340	1599	963	1723	727	104
BAKKEN	10-2021	24	2552	2403	2457	3725	1884	312
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	2967	3001	3702	6175	3156	531
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	3663	3710	2042	4789	2449	434
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2371	2502	4165	3412	1806	258

A Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 29, 2022

The well:

• 26267, 1,672, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28D-21-6H, Charlson, t9/14; cum 426K 11/18; cum 510K 2/22; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2022	20	1357	1311	750	4485	4335	15
BAKKEN	1-2022	29	1331	1380	437	5704	5502	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	2011	2026	680	7671	7455	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2203	2103	748	7518	7309	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2097	2149	845	7032	6806	10
BAKKEN	9-2021	15	982	951	623	3123	2986	34
BAKKEN	8-2021	19	1112	1207	350	4671	4525	0

An EOG Wayzetta Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 24, 2022

The well:

• 25853, 1,203, EOG, Wayzetta 34-2829H, Parshall, t12/13; cum 470K 11/18; cum 504K 2/22; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	580	579	433	4696	4244	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	781	779	529	5553	5062	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	970	1069	571	5737	5237	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1008	1080	617	5761	5277	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1043	880	717	6020	5520	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	1078	1073	875	5695	5211	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	16	319	291	883	3018	2765	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

An Oasis Wilson Federal Well In The Charlson Oil Field Just Went Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil -- April 29, 2022

The well:

• 26228, 1.097, Oasis/SM Energy, Wilson Federal 1X-20H, Charlson, t2/14; cum 375K 12/18; cum 507K 2/22; recent production:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1607	1659	692	5334	5166	115
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	1878	1949	863	5985	4498	1432
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	2138	2156	825	6227	6039	123
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2303	2260	864	6267	6073	132
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2724	2840	1289	7036	6349	600
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	2887	2813	1321	7216	5148	1985
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	3105	3071	1732	7891	4077	3715
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2698	2704	1764	8355	1471	6789

Empire North Dakota, LLC -- In The May, 2022, NDIC Hearing Dockets

Empire North Dakota, LLC: NDIC well search. 

From mineralanswers website: eight producing wells. 

DrillingEdge: it looks like they are in Montana, along the ND state line.

shalexp: and up along the Canadian border in North Dakota, Bottineau County;

************************
My Sweet Lord

I've watched this video a gazillion times, but tonight I saw "things" I had not seen before.

My Sweet Lord, Billy Preston, Concert For George

The Concert For George: 

On November 29, 2002, one year after the passing of George Harrison, Olivia Harrison and Eric Clapton organized a performance tribute in his honor. Held at London’s Royal Albert Hall, the momentous evening featured George’s songs, and music he loved, performed by artists including Clapton, Joe Brown, Dhani Harrison, Jools Holland, Jeff Lynne, Paul McCartney, Monty Python, Tom Petty, Billy Preston, Ravi & Anoushka Shankar, Ringo Starr and more. 

Link. 

*********************************
Melancholy Mood Tonight

Daydream Believer, The Monkees

I give the Californians a lot of grief on this blog, but truth be told, some of my happiest days ever were in California. For such a corny group, the Monkees had some great hits, including this one. 

I watch this video over and over, and I see my nephew in "Davy Jones." 

In a place far away and a long time ago.

The Peregrine Wells In The City Of Williston, North Dakota -- April 29, 2022

Updates

March 26, 2023: it appears the three new Peregrine wells (#3880 - #38782, inclusive) have been drilled to depth. No production data as of January, 2023. FracFocus shows no data.

Original Post

The Peregrine wells:

• 33130, 1,220, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24H, Todd, t10/17; cum 587K 8/22;
• 38782, drl, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 4B, Todd,1280-acre, sections 13/24-154-101;
• 38781, drl, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 3B, Todd,1280-acre, sections 13/24-154-101;
• 38780, drl, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24 2B, Todd,1280-acre, sections 13/24-154-101;
  

In addition to these wells/locations, in the May, 2022, NDIC hearing dockets, Grayson Mill plans to put six more wells in this drilling unit but it will be a 1920-acre unit, sections 12/13/24-154-102.

Updated graphic, April 29, 2022:

The graphic:

August 25, 2019: the Osprey and Peregrine wells, for production data, see this post.

• 33130, 1,220, Oasis, Peregrine 5401 42-24H, Todd, t10/17; cum 430K 9/19; a huge well;
• 33499, 593, Oasis, Osprey 5401 44-34H, Todd, t10/17; cum 417K 9/19; a huge well;

Week 17: April 24, 2022 -- April 30, 2022

We begin:

From Leo Tolstoy's Anna Karenina:

"Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way."

I see economic cycles the same way:

"Happy times are all alike; but every recession is different in its own way."

This next one begins with a shortage of diesel. We just don't know it yet.

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president.
• North Dakota's April blizzard shut in 60% of North Dakota crude oil production. And, here. And, here.
  
• US GDP went negative; a second consecutive quarter with negative GDP = a recession.  
• Putin's War continues.
• Out of the pandemic, April 27, 2022 -- Dr Fauci.
  

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

• Diesel is still the top international energy story; ULSD is new buzzword. Aviation.

Top national non-energy story:

• Equity markets: Ford and Amazon take huge loss due to Rivian.
• Amazon earnings here.

Top national energy story:

• Buffett makes huge investment in CVX. And, here.
• Update on SPR release.
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• Another cryptocurrency data center in North Dakota?
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• Cerilon GTL update.

Geoff Simon's North Dakota top energy stories:

Operations:

• Enerplus reports another huge well.
  

Operators:

• Empire North Dakota, LLC, getting active again.
• CLR with eight new permits.
• CLR increases dividend.
  

Wells:

• Update on Oasis Peregrine wells in the city of Williston.
• MRO starting to reports its Christoph pad. 
• Enerplus reports a huge Lynx well.
• The McGinnity E wells.
• The Enerplus winter fur pad wells are incredible.
  

Wells over 500K:

• Enerplus Fort Berthold.
• Petro-Hunt Van Hise Trust.
• EOG Wayzetta.
• Oasis Wilson Federal.

Fracking:

Halo effect:

• A CLR Kukla well in Chimney Butte.
• Random examples.
  

Natural gas:

Pipelines:

• A 250,000-bbl crude oil pipeline, Watford City, ND, to Baker, MT.

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Headlines From Twitter -- April 29, 2022

The headlines:

• TC Energy beats profit estimates; expects LNG exports to grow 90%. 
• US solar industry warns of slowdown due to supply chain disruptions.
• XOM, CVX post big revenues, Wall Street shrugs (small mom-and-pop retail investors are going to beat the big Wall Street investors)
• CVX posted the highest quarterly earnings in almost a decade
  
• North American oil companies scramble to find workers despite boom
• Phillips 66's early 2022 turnarounds to end as gasoline driving season looms
• Gulf Coast fuelmakers are exporting a massive amount of diesel
• annualized total equity returns adjusted for inflation are worst since 1974
• Total Energies (one of my favorite companies) has started production of sustainable aviation fuel from a new plant at its integrated Normandy refining / petrochemicals platform in France
• I can't recall if I still hold shares in TTE;
• WTI: $250?
• Gazprom's European gas storage empties out. Think about that.
  
• North Dakota's oil output briefly plummeted to just 300,000 bopd day -- blizzard. Think about that. 
• ULSD (ultra-low sulfur diesel) now stands for ultra low-supply diesel
• physical New York diesel market is on fire, with prices surging > $250 / bbl oil equivalent; dieeseel is the workhorse of the global economy, the fuel of trucking, railway, shipping, heavy machinery and, don't forget, farming. If we have a recession; it begins here with diesel.
• after weeks of reluctance, Germany now backs a European Union plan to ipose a gradual embargo on Russian oil imports

I don't know if it will happen before Biden's first term [ends January 19, 2025] but within my investing lifetime, I am absolutely convinced there will be a crude oil supply / demand (crude oil shortage) that will be absolutely unprecedented. It will be global and worse than what the US saw during the OPEC embargo of 1973 - 1974. 

Why Didn't I Think Of This! LOL -- April 29, 2022

Link here.

One thing to make this a perfect evening: Casablanca on TCM.

Brilliant, Simply Brilliant! April 29, 2022

I posted this earlier:

********************************
Biden's Foreign Policy: Leading From Behind

A reader sent me a cartoon of Biden and his foreign policy. An anti-Biden cartoon.

My reply:

I have no idea what Biden's foreign policy is but actions speak louder than words. 

Ukraine is not scoring the successes we see reported each day without huge, unprecedented support from the US.

Biden is asking for an unprecedented $33 billion for Ukraine and to get it quickly, and he will get it. At least most of it. GOP will be crazy to vote against it.

Quick: who's running the US war in Europe?

• name the US president
• name the US VP
• name the SecDef: it's not Rumsfeld
• name the Pentagon's Chief of Staff: it's not Colin Powell
• name the US European commander: I have no idea
• name the Air Force commander in Europe (USAFE): I have no idea and if I don't know, no one except a few actually know and where do you think Ukraine is getting all their intel (drones and RC-135s)
• name the US combatant commander: it's not Stormin' Norman

Devil's advocate:

• if Trump were president, Trump would clearly be in charge;
• Trump would be a very, very visible Commander-in-Chief
• things would be a lot worse with Trump running the show

Just being a devil's advocate.

Now this. 

Trump would have thought of this weeks ago, but better late than never. I don't think folks know how big a deal this is. Fast-tracking citizenship for Russians. LOL.

First, Biden stole their yachts, now he's stealing their brains. LOL.

Hold That Thought -- April 29, 2022

A digression: we close out the week with WTI at $104.70. 

Wow, I don't believe in coincidences. LOL. But sometimes, the only explanation is ... drum roll ... coincidences.

A reader just wrote me telling me that a recession was unavoidable. 

I replied, that yes, that was the consensus. 

I had to look up the last us recession. Began in February, 2020 -- ended in April 2020, making it the shortest recession on record.

I got to thinking about that, and thinking this is the best opportunity to be investing. 

Hold that thought.

At the top of my twitter feed:

I have three tranches of investing in the month of May:

• May 2, 2022,
• May 16, 2022, and,
• May 30, 2022.

Four New Permits Including Three Permits For Wildcats in Mercer County -- April 29, 2022

Active rigs:

$104.70	4/29/2022	04/29/2021	04/29/2020	04/29/2019	04/29/2018
Active Rigs	37	16	31	64	62

Four new permits, #38915 - #38918, inclusive:

• Operators: Rampart Energy (3); Enerplus
• Fields: three wildcats in Mercer County; Murphy Creek (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has a permit for a MC-Kudrna well in SWSE 10-144-95; to be sited 222 FSL and 1456 FEL;
• Rampart has permits for three Coteau wells in Mercer County;
• #2: 424 FSL and 805 FWL, a wildcat
• #3: 2462 FSL and 2391 FEL, a wildcat
• #4: 1641 FSL and 2421 FWL, a wildcat

Eleven permits renewed:

• BR: six Gladstone permits in McKenzie County; two Mathistad peremits in McKenzie County; and three Keene permits in Dunn County;

Intel: Still Unimpressed -- April 29, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

 

*************************************
Intel Continues To Un-Impress Me

Link here.

Transcript.

• Links:
  
• CEO remains "confident" despite challenges.  
• Intel: still a have not. 
• Intel heads into the red on "uncertain" sentiment for the rest of the year. 
• Intel slumps as outloook suggests PC weakness may be in the works. 
• Intel's results could set tone for the rest of the chip giant's year.
  

XOM, CVC Earnings -- 1Q22 -- April 29, 2022

Blockbuster earnings.

Apple Earnings And Reminiscing -- April 29, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The Apple Page

Earnings, 1Q22 and other related items.

Look at #5 and #6 below. 

• Qualcomm's M1 rival to be available in PCs by late 2023.
• Twenty years ago today, Apple unveiled the eMac.
• Apple was the only smartphone vendor to increase shipments year-over-year last quarter.
• Apple expects supply constraints to continue in 3Q22.
• Fifty percent of customers purchasing a Mac in 2Q22 were new Mac users.
• Apple reports all-time or March quarter revenue records across all categories except iPad.
• iPad had severe supply chain constraints.
• Apple reports 2Q22 results: $25.0 billion profit on $97.3 billion revenue, best March quarter ever.
• Nvidia updating GeForce NOW with native support for Apple Silicon Macs.
• Apple expected to announce record-breaking March quarter.

From ZeroHedge, link here:

*******************************
Reminiscing

If I could live life over again, one thing I would do: keep a 4 x 6 card on every individual with whom I crossed paths. I think it would have been doable. I can think of many, many folks with whom I would now love to touch base, to see what they are doing, and to let them know how they made my life richer. 

I've thought about that a lot. Today, I was thinking of Dr Joe Matthews. One of my "favorite" physicians during my training. He trained as a colorectal surgeon while I was training as a pediatrician at Travis AFB hospital in / near Vacaville, CA.

After training, he and I ended up crossing paths again when he was transferred to Grand Forks AFB, ND, where I had been for a year.  

This story is a few years old. The Matthews had two sons. I forgot the names of the two boys, but one, see the linked article, was Doug. I remember treating one of the two, possibly Doug, with an antibiotic to prevent Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever, when they arrived at Grand Forks AFB, about 1981.

Clearing Out The In-Box -- April 29, 2022

Oil:

• is it time for another SPR release?
• this is why Schumer - Pelosi are so concerned
• they can put all the auditors they want between crude oil at the well head and the pumps at my neighborhood service station, but those auditors cannot possibly affect the price of oil. Period. Dot.
• surging
• I guess losing 60% of the Bakken is not trivial
• or, maybe it's short covering as we get to the end of the month
• Brent: up 2.34%; up $2.52; trading at $110.10
• WTI: up 2.36%; up $2.49; trading at $107.80

Chevron:

• a reader tells me that Chevron plans to increase their production by 35% (year-over-year?)
• all the auditors ...

Records:

• oil set to record the longest winning streak in three years

Solar:

• US solar industry braces for slump in new capacity
• solar farms: NIMBY
• rooftop solar panels: folks don't have the cash to install such systems
• supply chain shortages and raw material inflation: will kill US solar

Russia:

• one year from now we'll be reading stories about Russian oil sector collapsing due to lack of western technology
• if I know that, Putin knows that

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

**************************
Business Models

No pun intended.

Victoria's Secret will open a "storefront" on Amazon.

When a reader sent me that link, my reply:

Supports my assertion that companies like Amazon will lap others.

It also suggests that Victoria's Secret is really, really hurting.

I don't go to the malls much any more, maybe once or twice a year I visit the local mall to take Sophia. I find the malls generally empty and that's where the bulk of Virginia's Secret stores are located.

We will know in a year or so if this business decision is as bad as CNN+, New Coke, Edsel, AMC Gremlin. or the US Football League which lasted three years trying to compete with the NFL.

***********************
Little Missouri River at Marmarth, ND

Level is at recent record highs, link here.

 *****************************
Amazon

How bad did these affect Amazon's earnings?

• high price of gasoline / diesel
• supply chain issues
• inflation
• Rivian

A response:

This stock's poor performance has nothing to do with government stimulus checks or no government stimulus checks. This is about the end of the Pandemic, an overvalued American dollar, and what happens when you operate a delivery company and fuel prices skyrocket. 

Amazon is simply saying here that we are going to defend our market share we won in the last 2 years from the brick and competitors who are now getting back all their customers that Amazon stole or borrowed, depending on your point of view. If you are willing to look the other way on several more quarters of scorched earth pricing and profits, Amazon is for you as an investor. Amazon has the financial power to do this. However, most other Ecommerce companies do not. Many will fail in the next year or two.

*************************
Pantheon Resources

Why are we not hearing more about Pantheon Resources and Alaska?

Link here to SeekingAlpha.

 

A reader alerted me to Pantheon Resources. 

*************************************
Intel Continues To Un-Impress Me

Link here.

********************************
Biden's Foreign Policy: Leading From Behind

A reader sent me a cartoon of Biden and his foreign policy. An anti-Biden cartoon.

My reply:

I have no idea what Biden's foreign policy is but actions speak louder than words. 

Ukraine is not scoring the successes we see reported each day without huge, unprecedented support from the US.

Biden is asking for an unprecedented $33 billion for Ukraine and to get it quickly, and he will get it. At least most of it. GOP will be crazy to vote against it.

Quick: who's running the US war in Europe?

• name the US president
• name the US VP
• name the SecDef: it's not Rumsfeld
• name the Pentagon's Chief of Staff: it's not Colin Powell
• name the US European commander: I have no idea
• name the Air Force commander in Europe (USAFE): I have no idea and if I don't know, no one except a few actually know and where do you think Ukraine is getting all their intel (drones and RC-135s)
• name the US combatant commander: it's not Stormin' Norman

Devil's advocate:

• if Trump were president, Trump would clearly be in charge;
• Trump would be a very, very visible Commander-in-Chief
• things would be a lot worse with Trump running the show

Just being a devil's advocate.

The Book Page, Inflation Watch -- April 29, 2022

 ***********************
The Book Page

I am really embarrassed. Huge apology. 

In all my recent notes about the books on my top shelf, I keep forgetting, perhaps the best of the best, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance by Robert M. Pirsig, c. 1974 or thereabouts.

Fortunately, we have this: Robert M. Pirsig on the book he wrote (and the one he didn't). 

***********************
Inflation Watch

Years ago when we lived in San Antonio, my wife and I loved an occasional leisurely breakfast at La Madeleine's, a French bakery and café.

We haven't been there in years.

Today, based on their on-line menu:

• a chocolate croissant: $3.20
• coffee: $2.44
• tip: 20% = $1.28
• total: $6.77

At home:

• same chocolate croissant from local grocer: $1.00
• coffee, Keurig: 50 cents
• no tip
• total: $1.50

Add an orange juice ($3.07 at La Madeleine) vs $3.99 for a jug of orange juice from local grocer which probably has a dozen servings (33 cents).

NDIC Hearing Dockets For May, 2022 -- Huge Number Of Cases: 26 Pages But Very Few Cases On Each Page

Usual disclaimer applies: I do this quickly for my benefit. I do not expect readers to read this summary. There will be content and typographic errors. I used shorthand that may be confusing.  For all I know the links may not even be correct. I haven't checked them in quite awhile. In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Link here.  

Tracked on the blog here.

Cases, not permits.

Thursday, May 26, 2022
1 page.

The cases:

• 29402, WPX, pooling, 
• 29401, WPX, pooling,
• 29400, Grayson Mill, pooling, 
  

Thursday, May 26, 2022
13 pages.

The cases:

• 29361, NDIC, KT Enterprises, a treating plant, McKenzie County;
  
• 29362, Grayson Mill, amend, Stony Creek and/or Avoca-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, section 36-155-100 and sections 1/12-154-100; one well, Williams County
  
• 29363, Grayson Mill, Todd-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit, sections 12/13/24-154-102; six wells on that unit, Williams County
• 29364, WPX, amend, Heart Butte and/or Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken; an overlapping 1280-acre unit, sections 9/16-149-91; one well; an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 2/3/4/9/10/11-149-91, one well; Dunn, McLean counties;
  
• 29365, Bowline Energy, amend, Buffalo Wallow and/or Bully-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 4/5/8/0-148-100; one well; McKenzie County;
  
• 29366, Enerplus, amend, Eagle Nest-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, sections 2/3/10/11 and sections 3/4/9/10-148-95, one well; Dunn County;
  
• 29367, Slawson, amend, Big Bend-Bakken, establish a 160-acre unit S/2 SE/4 of section 21 and N/2 NE/4 of section 28-152-92; for additional operations in the Fox 2-28H, file # 20855); Mountrail County;
  
• 29368, CLR, West Capa-Bakken, amend, rule change, Williams County;
  
• 29369, CLR, Dollar Joe-Bakken, amend, rule change, Williams County;
  
• 29370, CLR, St Demetrius and/or Bullsnake-Bakken, amend, an overlapping1920-acre unit, and four overlapping 3840-acre units; wells on section lines; Billings County;
  
• 29371, CLR, Crazy Man Creek-Bakken, amend, dissolve an overlapping 2560-acre unit, which authorized a single well; Williams County;
  
• 29372, CLR, Willow Creek-Bakken, amend, dissolve an overlapping 2560-acre unit, which authorized a single well; Williams County;
  
• 29373, CLR, Viking-Bakken, amend, dissolve an overlapping 2560-acre unit, which authorized a single well; Burke County;
  
• 29374, CLR, suspend/revoke an Oasis permit; #36048, McKenzie County;
  
• 29375, Grayson Mill, pooling,
  
• 29376, Slawson, pooling,
  
• 29377, Slawson, pooling,
  
• 29378, Slawson, pooling,
  
• 29379, Slawson, pooling,
  
• 29380, Slawson, commingling,
  
• 29381, CLR, pooling,
  
• 29382, CLR, pooling,
  
• 29383, CLR, pooling,
  
• 29384, CLR, pooling,
  
• 29385, CLR, pooling,
  
• 29386, CLR, pooling,
• 29387, CLR, SWD
  
• 29388, Bowline Energy, pooling,
  
• 29389, KODA Resources, pooling,
  
• 29390, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 29391, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 29392, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 29393, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 29394, KODA Resources, SWD,
  
• 29395, Enerplus, commingling,
  
• 29396, Crescent Point Energy, commingling,
  
• 29397, Rimrock, commingling,
  
• 29398, Hunt Oil, SWD
  
• 29399, Hunt Oil, SWD
  

Wednesday, May 25, 2022
13 pages

The cases:

• 29331, NDIC, to consider the confiscation of assets
  
• 29332, Empire North Dakota LLC, establish eight 160-acree units, a vertical well in the Spearfish formation; eight wells, Bottineau County;
  
• 29333, Empire North Dakota, establish a 640-acre unit, section 29-161-78; Spearfish; one well;Bottineau County;
  
• 29334, Empire North Dakota, establish a 320-acre unit; E/2 of section 30-161-78, one horizontal well in Spearfish formation, Bottineau County;
  
• 29335, Empire North Dakota, establish a 640-acre unit, one horizontal well, Spearfish, Bottineau County,
  
• 29336, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga and/or White Earth-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 22/23/26/27-158-94, Mountrail County
  
• 29337, Oasis, amend, Sorkness-Bakken, establish two standup 1920-acre units, sections 11/14/23; and section 12/13/24-157-93, four wells in each; eight wells, Mountrail County;
  
• 29338, Oasis, amend, Sorkness-Bakken, establish two overlapping 3840-acre units; sections 10/11/14/15/22/23 and sections 11/12/13/14/23/24-157-93; one horizontal well in each, Mountrail County
  
• 29339, Oasis, amend, Alger-Bakken; establish a 1600-acre unit, E/2 E/2 fo sections 2/11, the W/2 of sections 1/12, and all of section 13-156-93, four wells, Mountrail County;
  
• 29340, Oasis, amend, Camp and/or Willow Creek-Bakken, rule exemptions for #38523, Rilynn Federal, McKenzie County,
• 29341, Oasis, amend, Camp and/or Willow Creek-Bakken, rule exemptions for #38524, Rynn Lee, McKenzie, Williams
  
• 29342, Hess, amend, Ray-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit, sections 20/29/32-157-96; seven wells, Williams County
  
• 29343, Hess, amend, Ray-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre, sections 19/20/29/30/31/32-157-96; one well, Williams County;
  
• 29344, Ovintiv, amend, Grinnel-Bakken, Sand Creek-Bakken, and/or Keene-Bakken/Three Forks, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 2/3/10/11/14/15-153-96; McKenzie County
  
• 29345, Ovintiv, amend, the Sand Creek-Bakken, establish a standup 1920-acre unit, sections 3/10/15-153-96, McKenzie County
  
• 29346, Ovintiv, amend, Lost Bridge and/or Bear Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 10/15/22-148-96; Dunn County;
  
• 29347, Kraken, amend, Hebron-Bakken, establish a laydown 2240-acre unit; sections 34/35/36-155-104; and, sections 31-155-103, Williams County
  
• 29348, NDIC, bond determination, RTR Energy, Hettinger County
  
• 29349, Hess, commingling,
  
• 29350, Hess, amend, Tioga-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 11/14-157-95; Williams County;
  
• 29351, Hess, pooling,
  
• 29352, Hess, Big Butte, conversion, #27294, to injection well; Mountrail County
  
• 29353, ditto, #27295,
  
• 29354, ditto, #27296,
  
• 29355, ditto, #27297,
  
• 29356, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, six wells on a 1920-acre unit, sections 1/2/3-152-93; Mountrail County;
  
• 29357, Grayson Mill, commingling,
  
• 29358, BR, commingling,
  
• 29359, Ovintiv, Lost Bridge-Bakken, two wells, on a lease-line 2560-acre unit, sections 10/11/14/15-148-96; Dunn County
  
• 29360, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
  

Earnings -- Tech -- 1Q22 -- The Four Common Themes

I don't want the blog to get too far afield of the Bakken, so a lot of my political, earnings, non-Bakken posts will be posted elsewhere. I will link them later. But I have to post this here just to get started. Much of the rest will be posted elsewhere. I will provide the links when posted.

This is not an investment site.

Everything below pertains to investing, not trading. Investing means having a 30-year horizon, not a 30-day horizon, or for some, a 30-hour or 30-minute horizon. 

Earnings: there were some common themes coming out of the earnings reports from yesterday afternoon: AAPL; Amazon, Roku, Robinhood, and Intel.

• getting crushed
• even with good earnings, share prices of great companies are being crushed;
• with bad earnings, share prices of great companies are really being crushed;
• with no earnings being reported by meme companies, shares are imploding; some could go to zero
• moats:
• meme companies most at risk: those with no moats; great examples of companies with no moats:
• DoorDash, UberEats, GrubHub
• Teledoc: having no moat will kill this company
• Zillow, Rocket Mortgage, 
  
• the NASCAR analogy:
• great companies are lapping the also-rans
• at least a couple of analysts are patting themselves on the back for "warning" us about Amazon; but think about this:
• one assumes Amazon has some of the brightest logistics folks on board
• if Amazon is struggling, imagine the others
• companies like Amazon have really, really deep pockets; they will spend their way out of this and lap those companies without that money
• like NASCAR, the great companies will keep getting better; the gap between the great companies and the others will widen
• the-bear-chasing-two-runners analogy:
•  if Apple is having supply chain problems, imagine how tough it is for their competitors
• what does not kill you, will make you stronger
• a lot of meme companies are going to get killed
• great companies will only get stronger
• the faster runner survives; the slower runner gets eaten by the bear
  
• energy: if there was one huge mistake by delivery companies like Amazon: 
• it was not transitioning to EVs fast enough; 
• even transitioning to CNG (if they did) appears to have been a mistake; 
• last mile (more appropriately, last ten-mile) delivery companies were perfect niches for EVs.
• they didn't switch quickly enough -- and I'm talking about ten years ago -- before Covid and China and Ukraine and Biden and whatever else comes next
• Robinhood: another company with no moat
• Roku: another NASCAR analogy company: Roku. 
• Seems to me Roku is the Danica Patrick or the Bubba Wallace of the streaming companies. 
• Roku, Danica, and Bubba get/got a lot of headlines; once in awhile they even do great, but in the big scheme of things, they always finish, at best, near the middle, and generally at the end of the pack
• there was a reason Danica left racing when she did; 
• Bubba's backer (yes, singular) has deep pockets so Bubba will be around for awhile; 
• Roku? time will tell.
• so those are the four themes coming out of yesterday's earnings from five well-known tech names:
• meme stocks will get lapped when times are challenging (the NASCAR analogy)
• companies with no moats will disappear
• the bear-chasing-two-runners analogy: if companies like Amazon, Apple are challenged with supply chain issues and price of energy, imagine how their competitors are being affected
• energy 
• Cathie Wood memes have jumped the shark. Just to throw that in so folks don't think I missed it.
• oh, by the way, there's another theme that is bubbling to the surface, impacted Amazon and Ford: EVs
• EVs are going to be kill some of these companies 
• this is going to be a hard nut to crack
• a reader sent me a note regarding CNN+ yesterday, suggesting that was the worse business decision since Edsel and New Coke. I was confused by the note; I will come back to it later, but it has a great tie-in with the EV story.

Something to think about: share buybacks --

• over the past year, Amazon actually issued $10 billion in more shares; that was over the past year;
• Apple announced another $90 billion in share buybacks; adds to previous buyback programs
• speaks volumes; links here for Apple:
  
• CNBC earlier this year;
• five-year history for AAPL;
  
• speaks volumes; for Amazon, from March 22, 2022 --
  
• Amazon approved a $5 billion repurchase program in 2016. 
• Over 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021, Amazon spent … nothing. It made no repurchases.Mar 22, 2022:
• remember, Tesla has done the same thing: has issued more shares over the years
• whatever one thinks about share buybacks, it's a huge discriminator between companies when deciding where to put one's investing dollars
• all things being equal including a hunch that both Apple and Amazon will be huge companies thirty years from now, what one metric might help you decide between Apple and Amazon? Stock buybacks?

Something to think about: dividends --

• Apple pays a dividend (albeit not much)
• Amazon: has never paid a dividend and is likely to never pay a dividend

Something to think about: AAPL and dividends and buybacks

• think about all the money Apple is not sending out in checks every quarter -- buying back shares and really, really being disciplined when it comes to dividends in the first place -- but all those shares being bought back -- dividends not being paid on those