A Historic Day For The US -- Out Of The Pandemic -- Fauci -- April 27, 2022

In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. I often mis-read things. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

As you go through this note, remember: the number of deaths -- from all causes -- increased by 20% year-over-year, 2020 over 2019. I think a lot of folks forget that. For me, I easily could have been a statistic but I had two good years with granddaughter Sophia. My wife with several co-morbidities is also a survivor. 

In round numbers from memory:

• the US generally has about 2.75 million deaths from all causes;
• in 2020, the year of the plague, the number of US deaths from all causes, jumped from 2.75 to 3.4 million deaths:
• roughly 30% of deaths from all causes were due to infectious lung diseases
• back-of-the-napkin:
• (3.4 million - 2.75 million)/2.75 million = 24% jump in all deaths, year-over-year into the plague year; deaths from "usual" causes did not increase
  
• (3.4 million -2.75 million) * 0.30 = 195,000 deaths due to infectious lung diseases and almost none of them bacterial pneumonia, leaving a viral pneumonia
• just think how better off we are with all the anti-viral medications coming available!

Before we begin, this from August, 2021:

Now, fast forward to April 27, 2022. Almost two years to the day since the lock downs began. Very similar to the Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 - 1920. The pandemic is over for the US: Dr Fauci.

I posted an update earlier this morning with much of the Covid news coming out today. There were several takeaways but I won't repeat them here.

What I find most interesting is looking back on the Covid-19 and "seasonal flu" data compiled by the CDC during the last five years or so. 

Wuhan flu. The blog.  Coronavirus: statistics.     Seasonal flu: CDC.  

From the CDC site today.

I think this is the most interesting graphic. Even Sophia, seven years old, with a little help from an adult, could interpret this graph:

Comments:

• hospitalizations due to "influenza" -- laboratory diagnosed; probably does not include Covid-19; simply "seasonal flu"
• for the past seven seasons, 2016 - 2017 to 2021 - 2022 to date, inclusive.
• the year of the plague, 2020-2021: lowest rate ever; absolutely amazing; there will be much discussion over at the CDC on this one;
• current year, to date, is running higher than 2011 - 2012 (but just barely) and higher than 2020 - 2021, but well below all previous years, and by quite a bit
• 2017 - 2018 was particularly bad.

This is my second favorite graphic, influenza- ("flu," "seasonal flu") pediatric deaths:

Comments:

• this is simply phenomenal
• from the 20th week in 2020 (the year of the plague) to the 45th week of the following year, 2021, there was one pediatric death recorded in the entire US associated with influenza; 
• this includes all the undocumented children crossing the southern border, and housed closely together;
• this includes all the kids with severely compromised immune systems, particularly cancer (think leukemia)
  
• during the past winter, it appears there were 20 such deaths in the entire United States;
• none have been reported in the current last couple of weeks
• compare the last "clump" with the two larger "clumps" in 2018 - 2019 and 2019 - the fourteenth week of 2020 (pre-Covid)!

After that, you can scroll through the CDC site and check out the other graphs and charts.

This would be my third favorite: this is all deaths due to pneumonia, influenza ("flu," "seasonal flu"), and Covid-19.

Comments:

• the CDC has separated the deaths by PIC "code" (pneumonia, influenza, Covid-19);
• because many folks question correct coding, let's forget about the specific cause (code) and just lump everything together
• it was the 14th week of 2020 (or thereabouts) when the lock downs began;
• prior to that: three small yellow "clumps": percent of all deaths due to PIC
• look at the small percentage: at worse (2018): 2%
• at best, 2019, about 1%, maybe slightly less
• then, in 2020, upwards of 30% - 35% of all US deaths due to PIC
• imagine had we done nothing -- no social distancing, no masking (early on) and no vaccines (later on) how angry Americans would have been with this data; and having done nothing, it definitely would have been worse, probably much worse (even if social distancing and testing/quarantining) were all we had
• back to specific codes: although one can question the accuracy of diagnosing ("flu" vs "Covid") it's hard to believe the entire US health sector conspired to show so few "flu" deaths that no "yellow" made the chart after the 14th week of 2020
• if this chart doesn't get one's attention, there's no use continuing the discussion.

Think about this. In all my years of practicing medicine, most of the time hospitals had an "occupancy rate" of about 90%. During the "flu" season it was much worse. When I trained at Los Angeles County Hospital -- on par with Cook General and anything NYC has, I assume -- we often "ran out of beds" requiring patients admitted to be on gurneys in hallways. This was not uncommon. And that would have been during periods when deaths from infectious lung diseases were running five percent of all deaths -- I'm amazed the US healthcare system -- hospitals -- in-patient units managed to survive with infectious lung diseases running at 35% of all US deaths.

Without question, "we" learned a lot these last five years: research, diagnosing, treating, public health. We should see some interesting analyses of the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 - 2022. 

My nominee for US Covid-19 health care hero: co-nominees -- the chief nurse and the chief of hospital services at every major hospital across the US: public, private, military, county, city.