Covid-19 -- April 27, 2022

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.   

Updates

Later, 11:12 a.m. CT:  The original post below was posted early this morning. Since then, I have had some time to check on some additional links, mostly concerning anti-virals.

• anti-virals: 
• Tricare (military) health and wellness, Covid-19; 
• military health, Covid-19; 
• FDA, December 22, 2021: Pfizer's Paxlovid; 
• Houston Methodist, December 28, 2021; 
• Fauci, April 27, 2022, today: "we're out of the pandemic phase"
• I hated to use the CNN source but the story is linked everywhere;
• this makes the DOJ case against TSA lifting the mask mandate that much more difficult 
• most interesting:
• CDC graphics on Covid-19 and seasonal flu, historical data; will be posted separately.
  

Original Post

A reader noted yesterday that on the previous day -- so that was two days ago -- that ivermectin was trending over on twitter. I can't remember if I replied to the reader or not; I don't think I did. I did not want to wade back into that swamp but two things changed in less than 24 hours:

1) VP Kamala Harris has now tested positive, the highest-ranking person in the administration to have tested positive (prior: Nancy Pelosi); and,
2) ivermectin is again trending over at twitter this morning and, in fact, was near the top -- at least for while, if I recall correctly but I may be wrong. Too much news right now 

So, a couple of quick links / notes and maybe I will come back to this later:

• VP Kamala Harris: tests positive, asymptomatic, two primary and two booster vaccinations
• taking an anti-viral
  
• Ivermectin was indeed trending over at twitter earlier this morning, about 4:00 a.m. CT, but is now off the 5-item trend list;
• ivermectin does not reduce risk of Covid-19 hospitalization
• at one time, ivermectin was on the Tricare (military) formulary and readily available; I was unable to access the formulary yesterday so I do not the status of ivermectin and Tricare, now will I check again for now; too much other stuff going on
• Tricare formulary offers at least three anti-virals to treat Covid-19; will post those later;
• Ms Kamala Harris was prescribed one anti-viral after testing positive; link to LA Times;
• prescribed Paxlovid, Pfizer
• after returning to work on Tuesday, per SOP, she was given a rapid antigen test (positive) and confirmed with a PCR test
• President Trump has had two primary vaccinations and at least one booster
• studies show that vaccine is better at preventing re-infection than natural immunity.
• on the surface this makes no sense at all but if one reads the study and thinks about it, it makes sense
• one wonders if "we" see the same thing in any of the other diseases for which "we" are routinely vaccinated, mostly as infants and children

Maybe more later. I am no longer particularly interested in the subject except to see where "we" stand with regard to anti-virals. I do track daily vaccination rates and occasionally -- very rarely, any more -- post them.

For investors, my hunch is that Big Pharm profits from the vaccine will vary immensely across the industry. One Big Pharm company reports to the SEC that they make no profit on the vaccine; while another Big Pharm company is said to be doing incredibly well with regard to profits. 

However, my hunch is that oral anti-viral medications will be dispensed "like water" as they say during any future Covid-19 surge and for "seasonal flu." I think this -- the oral anti-virals -- not the vaccine -- is where the "real money" is going to be made. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

When I was in practice, we had only one, and then maybe two anti-virals for seasonal flu, neither of which impressed me. But now, three more anti-virals and generally accepted by many / most / all physicians / patients has made monumental changes in the way "flu" will be treated in the future.

In addition, the wide-spread availability of these oral anti-virals as well as the huge number of asymptomatic cases -- in vaccinated folks -- suggests that the US will not need to return to draconian measures to stop the spread of Covid-19 going forward. 

It will be interesting to see if there is a drop-off in hospitalizations and / or deaths from all respiratory causes this next "flu" season. It could be monumental.  If so, a major public health success story.