Sunday, August 18, 2019

Update On Lake Mead -- August 18, 2019

Lake Mead, link here.

Lake Mead's level is higher than what it was at this time in both 2017 and 2018.

From azcentral:
Arizona, Nevada and Mexico will be required to take less water from the Colorado River for the first time next year under a set of agreements that aim to keep enough water in Lake Mead to reduce the risk of a crash.
The federal Bureau of Reclamation activated the mandatory reductions in water deliveries on Thursday when it released projections showing that as of Jan. 1, the level of Lake Mead will sit just below a threshold that triggers the cuts.

The Colorado River’s reservoirs have dropped dramatically since 2000 during one of the most extreme droughts in centuries. Farms and cities across the Southwest have long been taking more from the river than what flows into it, and climate change is adding to the strains by pushing up temperatures.
Reservoirs were approaching levels last year that would have triggered a shortage and required deeper cuts, but heavy snow across much of the Rocky Mountains this winter boosted runoff and raised reservoir levels.
The river’s reservoirs are now at 55% of total capacity, up from 49% at the same time last year.
" ... and climate change is adding to the strains by pushing up temperatures." Oh, give me a break. 

Aviation Pros Reviews Williston's New Airport -- August 18, 2019

This is a really, really cool story -- from AviationPros -- regarding the new Williston airport. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first new greenfield international airport built in the western hemisphere in the past decade. Archived.

I did not know this: this airport is 10x the size of the airport it replaced. This is a huge, huge deal for Williston.

I thought I tracked XWA at one site but couldn't find it. For past posts on XWA, click here.

Earthquake Swarm In Kansas -- August 18, 2019

Earthquake swam in Kansas, Reno County.
A county in central Kansas experienced a pretty shocking uptick in seismic activity this week — 11 earthquakes in five days. It started with a magnitude-2.4 earthquake Wednesday morning just 2 1/2 miles southwest of Hutchinson, Kansas, in Reno County, according to the United States Geological Survey. There would be 10 more before the week was out.  
Unlikely that anyone felt a 2.4 magnitude but several subsequent earthquakes hit 4.0 or more.

Oil and gas activity in Kansas.

With all the wind farms in and around Hutchinson, KS, and knowing how deep the foundations for these turbines go, one wonders if wind farm activity is causing these earthquakes. LOL.

All Pipelines Lead To Patoka -- Illinois, That Is -- August 18, 2019

Wow, I love to blog.

Readers are so helpful.

A recent comment from a reader:
Capline is the big story. Helps everyone north of Cushing (Bakken, PRB/Nio, tar sands). Don't sleep on this. It's hyooge! 
The reader is exactly right. RBN Energy recently devoted a blog to the Capline. The RBN post will soon go behind a paywall. Archived.

Here's the graphic:

Another reader did not "understand" the Memphis connection. Of course, neither did I. But RBN Energy  did a full blog on that one, also.
Over the past few years, rising production in the Canadian oil sands and U.S. shale plays such as the Bakken, Permian and Eagle Ford has given refiners new options for sourcing their crude, causing changes in oil pipeline utilization and prompting the development of new pipelines — or the reversal of existing pipes.
A prime example of all this is playing out in Memphis, TN, where a Valero Energy refinery will be shifting from mostly U.S. Gulf Coast-sourced light crude to light crude that will flow in on the new Diamond Pipeline from the Cushing, OK, crude storage hub.
Valero’s change in crude sourcing will be yet another blow to the 1.2-MMb/d Capline Pipeline, which for decades has moved crude north from the Gulf Coast to Patoka, IL, and other points along the way, including western Tennessee.
Today [this was back in October 26, 2017], we look at the thinking and economics behind Valero’s plan and at the latest news on Capline.
We’ve looked at Capline and Diamond many times before here in the RBN blogosphere.
More than five years ago, we noted in the opening line of Draggin’ the Capline that “Crude oil wants to flow south to the U.S. Gulf” and that the utilization of the 1.2-MMb/d Capline Pipeline from the St. James, LA, crude oil hub to the Patoka hub (which is connected to more than 2 MMb/d of Midwest refining capacity) had fallen to only 14%.
This decline was largely because Midwest refineries had gained access to the increasing volume of crude available from western Canada and the Bakken. This low rate of Capline utilization raised questions about whether the pipeline’s flow should be reversed to help move Bakken and western Canadian crude south. (Capline is co-owned by Plains All American, with a ~54% stake; Marathon Petroleum, with ~33%; and BP, with ~13%.)
A couple of years later we discussed the plan by a joint venture of Plains All American and Valero Energy to build the 200-Mb/d Diamond Pipeline to transport crude from Plains’ Cushing storage terminal to Valero’s 195-Mb/d refinery in Memphis. When Diamond is completed later this year (2017), the crude flows from Cushing into Memphis are expected to largely displace crude that is now transported to the refinery from St. James via Capline and Valero Energy Partners’ Collierville Pipeline, a 52-mile-long, 210-Mb/d pipeline lateral from Capline (at Collierville, MS) to the Memphis refinery.
In other words, Diamond’s startup will put another nail in the coffin for a northbound-flowing Capline — a matter we discussed [previously].
The "thing" I take away from all this: the states (e.g., Minnesota, New York) that resist pipelines will find themselves behind the proverbial 8-ball in 2030. There will be winners and losers in Saudi American, but it's pretty much guaranteed that states that fight the energy revolution will be on the losing side. 

Patoka. Who would've guessed? The new Cushing? Probably not, but ...

The Sports Page -- August 18, 2019

If I'm reading the leaderboard / PGA Fedex standings correctly, Tiger Woods actually has a chance to make the Fedex Tour Championship. He is currently tied at 31st in the BMW tournament, at 8 under par after the 12th hole.

However, on the Fedex standings, he is currently running 40th and only the top 30 make the Tour Championship. It appears he needs to shoot a minus 12, or thereabouts, to make the top 30, Tour Championship.

So, chance to make the Tour Championship? About nil.

Next week, at the Tour Championship, the PGA Fedex leader will start the course with minus ten points; #2 will start the tournament with a minus 8 points --
  • #1: - 10 points
  • #2: - 8 points
  • #3: -7 points
  • #4: - 6 points
  • #5: -5 points, and 
  • then all the way to the 30th players starting at "even." 
I may not see the end of the tournament; family commitments begin at 2:45 p.m. Central Time. 

Keeping The Viewer Tuned In

It's so much fun watching any PGA Tournament in which Tiger Woods is playing. No matter how badly he's playing, the color announcers never let the viewer give up hope that Tiger will "win." At the 17th hole, if he's ten strokes back, the color announcers will tell viewers that it's still possible for Tiger to win.

It seems 90% of PGA TV coverage is of Tiger if he's playing.

And then you look at everyone else. No comparison. With Tiger.

Just When You Thought It Couldn"t Get Any Worse -- Coal Is Fueling Bitcoin -- August 18, 2019

I can't get my head around understanding energy consumption required by "Bitcoin."

To put the following data in perspective, from google:
For Great Britain. Energy use in the United Kingdom stood at 2,249 TWh (193.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent) in 2014. 
For Great Britain, total final consumption of electricity was broadly stable in 2018 compared to 2017, up 0.1 per cent. Renewable electricity generation was a record 111.1 TWh in 2018, an increase of 11.8 per cent on a year earlier. -- March 28, 2019
Luxembourg imports most of its energy. Luxembourg is the EU country with the second smallest forecast of renewables in 2020. Luxembourg has one of the highest emissions of carbon dioxide per person in Europe. According to IEA, the electricity use (gross production + imports – exports – transmission/distribution losses) in Luxembourg in 2008 was 7.7 TWh and population 0.49 million people.
Luxembourg was dependent on imported energy in 2008. Own production was 2% of primary energy in 2008. In 2008, electricity use per person in Luxembourg was 2.6 times greater than in the United Kingdom.
So, now that I have kind of a range of electricity consumption in two European/British economies, I can move on.

This site monitors "Bitcoin" energy consumption. As usual, numbers may be rounded.

Global "bitcoin":
  • estimated TWh per year: 75 TWh 
  • minimum TWh per year: 45 TWh
  • Number of us households powered for one day by the electricity consumed for a single transaction: 20 households
  • carbon footprint per transaction (kg of CO2): 300. Conversion: 300 kg = 0.3 metric tons
  • there are 300,000 Bitcoin transactions per day
  • most of the global Bitcoin mining facilities are in China
  • China's electricity sector relies heavily on coal-based power
  • coal is fueling bitcoin
Bitcoin cannot use renewable energy as sole source of energy:
While renewables are an intermittent source of energy, Bitcoin miners have a constant energy requirement. A Bitcoin ASIC miner will, once turned on, not be switched off until it either breaks down or becomes unable to mine Bitcoin at a profit. Because of this, Bitcoin miners increase both the baseload demand on a grid, as well as the need for alternative (fossil-fuel based) energy sources to meet this demand when renewable energy production is low.
In the worst case scenario, the presence of Bitcoin miners may thus provide an incentive for the construction of new coal-based power plants, or reopening existing ones. This impact would be even harder to quantify.
Obviously comparing apples to oranges, but I find this chart quite stunning. This is the energy requirements for one Bitcoin transaction compared with energy transactions for 100,000 credit card transactions.

Meanwhile, folks are worried about flaring as an environmental concern.

Early Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 18, 2019

35629, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-3H, Little Knife:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34714, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25W 2T, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34713, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25W 3B, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34172, conf, CLR, Ravin 4-1H, Dimmick Lake:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34034, conf, Petro Harvester Operating Company, LLC, FLX3 21-16 163-91 D, Portal:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32951, conf, BR, State Dodge 2B MBH, Dimmick Lake:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

35089, conf, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, NM 158-92-18-19-1MBH, Cottonwood:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34873, conf, CLR, Ravin Federal 2-1HSL, Dimmick Lake, minimal production reported so far;
34180, conf, CLR, Ravin 12-1H2, Dimmick Lake, minimal production reported so far;
34179, conf, CLR, Ravin 11-1H, Dimmick Lake, minimal production reported so far;
34178, conf, CLR, Ravin 10-1H1, Dimmick Lake, minimal production reported so far;
34154, conf, Oasis, Nelson 5298 14-26 12BX, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34153, conf, Oasis, Nelson 5298 14-26 11TX, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
34156, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 14TX, Banks:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
35538, conf, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 18, 2019

Monday, August 26, 2019: 73 for the month; 120 for the quarter:
34758, conf, MRO, Tercek 14-24H,
34639, conf, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 12-31-30TF2H,

Sunday, August 25, 2019: 73 for the month; 120 for the quarter:
35975, conf, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-4H, 
35629, conf, Petro-Hunt, Zabolotny 144-98-3B-10-3H, 
34714, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25W 2T
34713, conf, Oasis, Nordeng 5298 12-25W 3B,
34301, conf, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23H, 
34172, conf, CLR, Ravin 4-1H, 
34034, conf, Petro Harvester Operating Company, LLC, FLX3 21-16 163-91 D,

Saturday, August 24, 2019: 66 for the month; 113 for the quarter:
35041, conf, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-8,
24019, conf, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 6-31-30TFH,

Friday, August 23, 2019: 64 for the month; 111 for the quarter:
35978, conf, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-2H, 
35601, conf, XTO, Cole 44X-32F, 
35042, conf, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-9, 
32951, conf, BR, State Dodge 2B MBH,

Thursday, August 22, 2019: 60 for the month; 107 for the quarter:
35935, conf, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13H,

Wednedsay, August 21, 2019: 59 for the month; 106 for the quarter:
35089, conf, Liberty Resources Management Company, LLC, NM 158-92-18-19-1MBH, 
35043, conf, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-10, 
34763, conf, MRO, Danner 14-36H, 
34558, conf, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23DXA,
26803, conf, XTO, Cole 44X-32C,

Tuesday, August 20, 2019: 54 for the month; 101 for the quarter:
35936, conf, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13AXD, 
34873, conf, CLR, Ravin Federal 2-1HSL, 
34792, conf, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HY, 
34180, conf, CLR, Ravin 12-1H2
34179, conf, CLR, Ravin 11-1H, 
34178, conf, CLR, Ravin 10-1H1
34154, conf, Oasis, Nelson 5298 14-26 12BX, 
34153, conf, Oasis, nelson 5298 14-26 11TX
32398, conf, Slawson, Atlantis Federal 5-34-35MLH,
26802, conf, XTO, Cole 44X-32G,

Monday, August 19, 2019: 44 for the month; 91 for the quarter:
34156, conf, Oasis, Aagvik 5298 14-26 14TX, 

Sunday, August 18, 2019: 43 for the month; 90 for the quarter:
35937, conf, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13C, 
35602, conf, XTO, Cole Federal 44X-32D, 
35538, conf, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1
35349, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-5, 
34791, conf, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15H, 
34764, conf, MRO, Jocelyn 14-36TFH
32400, conf, Slawson, Atlantis Federal 2-34-35H, 

Saturday, August 17, 2019: 36 for the month; 83 for the quarter:
34790, conf, WPX, Sweet Grass Woman 22-15HZ,
32467, conf, BR, CCU Boxcar 8-8-22MBH,
26804 (no typo), conf, XTO, ColeFederal 44X-32H, 

Squaw Creek Getting Active -- August 18, 2019

Squaw Creek is getting active. Updates here including a new graphic. Squaw Creek is tracked here. The Rachel Wolf / Wolf wells are tracked here.

Ovals represent new activity since last graphic, April 20, 2018, last year. 

The well:
  • 20238, 180, WPX, Spotted Horn 26-35H, Squaw Creek, t1/12; cum 203K 6/19;
Back of the envelope:
  • 20 days at 5,561 extrapolates to 8,342 bbls. And 1,300 to 8,000 represents another 5-fold jump in production. And its flaring. Another well that would be shut in if flaring were banned. Let's see:
    • 5,561 bbls * $40 = $225,0000
    • 7,824,000 cubic feet at $1.77 / mcf = $15,000
    • the crude oil / natural gas price ratio = 25:1
    • price data from the August, 2019 (June, 2019 data) Director's Cut
  • EUR type curve? probably jumped from 375K to 750K after the new production data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Follow-Up On A Nice WPX Wolf Well In Squaw Creek -- August 18, 2019

The well:
  • 19973, 141, WPX, Wolf 27-34H, Squaw Creek, t7/11; cum 265K 2/18; -- that was back on 2/18 -- cum of 265K; now, cum 346K 6/19;
Production back in 2018 when neighboring wells were fracked:

This page won't be updated. The Wolf / Rachel Wolf wells are tracked here.

Getting Started -- Sunday, August 18, 2019

Sunday comics: Don't miss the comics today.

Darwin: this is pretty cool. I mentioned the "Gelernter book" (Darwin) back on August 3, 2019. I see there's a review of sorts over at Powerline.