Monday, March 13, 2023

21st Century -- America's Century -- NatGas -- March 13, 2023

Link here.

Actual and projected EXPORTS:

Actual and projected capacity; note -- this does not include Plaquemines -- link here.

********************
At Her Desk

New desk in the "Bat Cave."

Crescent Point Energy With Five New Permits -- March 13, 2023

For investors: incredibly bullish -- but counter-intuitive -- and depends on one's timeline -- let's see where we're at May 22, 2023

***************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: $74.73.

Natural gas: $2.625.

Five new oil and gas permits: #39730 - #39734, inclusive:

  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Little Muddy (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Crescent Point Energy has permits for five CPEUSC wells -- McQuarters, Walters, Suitor, and two Getzlaf permits;

Plaquemines LNG -- Phase II -- March 13, 2023

Updates

December 15, 2024: Plaquemines up and running. Link here. 

Later, 8:01 p.m. CT: link here. Archived.

Original Post 

See this note from December 6, 2021.

Link here.

ICYMI -- The 21st Century -- America's Century -- March 13, 2023

Updates

March 13, 2023: link here.

  • Boeing expected to win order for about 80 Dreamliners in Saudi deal
    • new carrier Riyadh Air expected to commit to purchasing 39 Boeing Dreamliners
    • existing carrier Saudia expected to order 39 Boeing 787s
  • Saudi Aramco
    • free cash flow, 2022: $150 billion
  • cost of a Dreamliner: $100 milllion
  • $150 billion / $100 million = 1,500 Dreamliners

Original Post 

Link here.

Update On Spacing In The Bakken -- March 13, 2023

Loosely speaking, in general, the "standard" drilling unit in the Bakken is now two sections / 1280-acre. 

I don't check the spacing units on all new permits / wells, so I may not catch permits / wells with spacing other than 1280-acre / two sections.

If this is a multi-well pad, most of those wells these days will be 1280-acre spacing. Section line wells are generally double the drilling spacing of the other wells on that pad. 

For example:

  • if the majority of wells on a pad are 1280-acre spacing, the a section line well from that pad will generally be a 2560-acre spacing well.
  • if the majority of wells on a pad are three sections / 1920-acres, a section line well from that pad will generally be a 3840-acre spacing well. 

Again, in general, but there will be exceptions, and I will often miss them.

One can generally identify a section line well by the legal name of the well. 

Not yet the norm, but more and more Bakken wells are going to be extended long laterals, "three-mile" laterals; three-section spacing / 1920-acre spacing.

Talk Of The Day — March 13, 2023

Rivian, Amazon: in talks to end “exclusivity” agreement. The big question: who initiated the talks? Answer here. Rivian not happy with Amazon’s “small” order. Amazon must be less than thrilled with what what they’ve seen so far.

  • Amazon agreed to buy 100,000 vehicles through 2030;
  • Amazon has agreed to only 10,000 vehicles to date;
  • Amazon says it is still on track.

Willow: Biden approves project. The devil is in the details. Environmental lawyers lining up. COP is tracked here. Story here.

AMAT: announces $10-billion buyback program, hikes dividend from 26 cents to 32 cents, a 23% hike. Payable June 15, 2023, to shareholders of record, May 25, 2023.

EVs today:

  • Lordstown (RIDE): down another 6.1% today.
  • Nikola: up 5%.
  • ARVL: down a whopping 14%.
  • LCID: down 1.7%.
  • RIVN: down 3%.
  • FSR: up 1%.
  • F: down 0.8%.

A new community blog. Link here.

Oscars:

  • Apple won one Oscar. One site said Apple won no Oscars last night; MacRumors said Apple received one Oscar.

Reading:

  • the first "adult" book I recall reading, Quo Vadis
  • read in eighth grade
  • made into a movie the year I was born
  • the movie is now playing on TCM
  • Elizabeth Taylor and Sophia Loren, it is said, were extras in the film

TCM

On "Home" Libraries -- March 13, 2023

I have / have had / had a huge library over the years but we simply ran out of room. I have given away a lot of books and packed away a lot more in storage.

But now I have a new "library" paradigm.

My old "library" paradigm: keep all books that I've that acquired on bookshelves so they are all readily available and readily seen by others.

New paradigm: keep minimum number of books on bookshelves.

Reasoning:
  • I don't need a library; there are many libraries available (public libraries, virtual libraries, Amazon, Powell Books in Portland, OR); I can find any book I want -- with some exceptions
  • in the big scheme of things, I generally go back and re-read only a few books, and I generally know which books I will be re-reading; those I keep on bookshelves;
  • with so little time to read each day, and so little time left in life (at age 72, this year), I want to keep only the new books (currently reading, and will read) on the bookshelves
  • after watching a few talking heads on television, I have an additional thought on "home" libraries but will keep those thoughts to myself: I don't want to offend anyone. 
I have started something new.  I'm putting together small libraries of books that I think are important for our grandchildren to read; some of those libraries will be virtual (lists) while other libraries will be kept on the bookshelves, grouped together; these small libraries will be limited to a handful of books.

**************************
Book Banning in High School
 
I've never understand all the "controversy" over "banning books in high school."

I come from the school of Mark 12:17. 

No school can afford every book ever published. School boards set a budget for the library, and the "school" decides what books to purchase or allow to be donated.

If a student has literally read every book in the school library and seeks additional books the school does not have, the books are readily available almost everywhere. Including on the internet at no cost.

JPow May Have Succeeded In Stopping Inflation; Oil Plunges -- March 13, 2023

Inflation: if I recall correctly, the risk was runaway inflation.

Aramco's spending mystery. Bloomberg. Link here.

**************************
Back to the Bakken

Bakken: yields clues to one of earth's mass extinctions. Link here.

The big five

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $73.52.

Natural gas: $2.536.

Tuesday, March 14, 2023: 45 for the month; 207 for the quarter, 207 for the year
39129, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 5-31-30-159N-99W-MBH,

Monday, March 13, 2023: 44 for the month; 206 for the quarter, 206 for the year
39149, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 146-97-29B-32-1H,
39139, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 8-5H1,
38653, conf, Oasis, Ramirez 5196 42-32 5B,
35589, conf, Neptune Operating, Heen 153-104-35-26-4H,
35588, conf, Neptune Operating, Heen 153-104-35-26-3H,

Sunday, March 12, 2023: 39 for the month; 201 for the quarter, 201 for the year
39138, conf, CLR, Micahlucas 7-5H,
39130, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 4-31-30-159N-99W-MBH,

Saturday, March 11, 2023: 37 for the month; 199 for the quarter, 199 for the year
39131, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Amelia Grace 4-6-7-158N-99W-MBH,

RBN Energy: oil, gas operators face mounting pressures around methane emissions, part 2

Oil and gas companies across the value chain are facing new pressures to manage and reduce methane emissions. Their ability to access premium markets and buyers, appeal to investors and avoid costly fees depends on developing a credible plan to measure and reduce methane emissions. At the very least, the industry’s regulatory outlook, its non-governmental quasi-oversight and its access to capital are changing in ways that make understanding sometimes inconsistent emissions data vitally important. In today’s RBN blog, we explore the recent changes and the mounting external pressures around methane emissions.