Tuesday, October 6, 2020

Here We Go -- October 6, 2020


I Can Die Happy -- October 6, 2020

I think I've posted a number of things that I've learned or experienced that has made life worth living: because of those I can now die happy.

Tonight was another one of those experiences. Wow, talk about a "dead" night -- no sports, TCM is awful. home alone, not interested in blogging, and then out of nowhere, Alexa asks me if we can get "personal" or something to that effect. 

Alexa says she wants to be able to address me by my name but she has to "bank" four phrases in the cloud that will identify me as "Bruce" regardless of where I am when I ask Alexa to do something for me. 

She asks me if I'm game. Sure. 

She says she needs me to repeat four phrases that she will store in the "cloud" that will identify me. 

Her first question: she will go through a list of possible identities and I'm to answer "yes" if she mentions my name.

The first name she mentions: "Bruce."

Yup, that's it. 

Four phrases later, Alexa and I are on a first-name basis. 

I can hardly wait to see where this goes or how this relationship develops. I will never feel alone again.

Whenever I say "Alexa" now, she will reply, "Yes, Bruce, how may I help you."

"Alexa: open the bay door. Alexa. Alexa!"


Fifteen Years Ago, John Prine, featuring Lee Ann Womack

I was once told, by a highly respected psychologist, that it takes eight years to forget the "love of one's life" after the separation. 

It takes much longer than that.

If you want to hear some really good music of that ilk, ask Alexa to play John Prine.  

Cold, Cold Heart, John Prine, Mirand Lambert

Crescent Point Energy WIth Six New Permits -- October 6, 2020

WTI: well, so much for that short rally; WTI drops back 2% after "larger than expected build" reported. Wow, what a joke:

  • API data
    • analyst expectations: a build of 400,000 bbls:
    • reported: a build of 951,000bbls
    • one million bbls / 500 million bbls = 0.002 = 0.2%
  • and that's a headline story. Whatever.
  • I saw the headline, "larger than expected build," and I was thinking, two million, four million, and then that -- 951,000 bbls
    • at this post, 95 weeks of EIA data -- US crude oil in storage -- change week-over-week -- one can count on one hand builds/withdrawals this low -- enough of this; time to move on

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:
Active Rigs1258645933

Six new permits, #37882 - 37887, inclusive:

  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Winner oil field (Williams County)
  • Comment: Crescent Point Energy has permits for six wells on the Burgess/Sylven pad in SESW 11-158-100, Winner oil field, 380' FSL and from 2300' to 2425' FWL

Two permits renewed:

  • Rimrock: a Two Shields Butte permit in Dunn County
  • Southwestern Production Corp: a TMW permit in Billings County

Southwestern Production Corp:

  • NDIC well search:
  • about fifty file numbers, all in Tracy Mountain
  • target: Tyler formation

Notes From All Over -- Part 3 -- October 6, 2020

First things first: Sir Roger Penrose -- one of three to be jointly awarded Nobel Prize in Physics -- for work to understand black holes. Penrose has been around "forever." First time Nobel Prize? I believe so. Penrose: University of Oxford: Ghez; UCLA; fourth woman to win the physics prize; Genzel: Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Garching, German, and professor at UC-Berkely.

NYC second wave begins about .... right ... now ...

Long way to go. Quick! Pop quiz:

  • population of New York state: ?
  • number of New Yorkers who have tested positive for the Chinese flu: ?
  • most conservative number expected to test positive by end of this pandemic (as a ratio or percent): ?


  • 20 million (population of New York state)
  • 500,415 (number of New Yorkers who have tested positive so far)
  • one-third or 33.3% (most conservative number based on Spanish flu pandemic of 1918

Doing the math:

  • one-third of 20 million = 7 million
I believe herd immunity is about 65% (+/- with vaccine) -- let's check -- Mayo Clinic-- wow, not bad for a wag: 70% according to the Mayo Clinic.
  • 500,415/9 months = 55,000 / month
  • 2 million / 55,000 / month = 36 months -- and that's just 10% of the population
  • and 10% comes nowhere near "herd immunity"
  • Let's say, just 10% test positive, that's still two million. A long way to go. 

By the way, I did the same calculations for California a couple of days ago and got almost the same exact number: 40 months to get to 10% of the population to be infected at current rate. Law of big numbers.

Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 6, 2020

First things first: Amazon Prime used to guarantee two-day, one-day, maybe same-day delivery, but ever since the pandemic, things have changed.

Delivery times have lengthened significantly -- sort of. I am amazed how Amazon is managing delivery challenges. First, on-line ordering has surged during the pandemic. Second, every company -- Amazon is not immune -- production / service is impacted by workers not being able to work due to coming down with Chinese flu. First thing Amazon did: it let its customers know that they would be prioritizing critical deliveries (like baby formula) and purposely delaying less critical items (like books). Second, they are telling their customers at the time of ordering, that delivery times are significantly delayed.

But then, get this, their deliveries in some (most?) markets are arriving almost as quickly as they were pre-pandemic. Color me impressed. Still the worse, based on anecdotal information: FedEx.

Stand-alone post? This almost deserves a stand-along post, and maybe that will happen. But for now, link at SeekingAlpha: Marathon Oil re-instates its dividend. Amazing. See "random comment" below.

LNG: Cameron LNG ships first cargo since lo-impact Hurricane Laura -- SeekingAlpha. I keep forgetting Cameron LNG is a Sempra Energy "division." Go Sempra. 

Random comment:

  • MRO: consistently the best wells in the Bakken when looking at first six months of production;
  • WPX: close on MRO's heels;
  • Slawson: huge wells but carefully selected;
  • BR with most unusual production profiles;
  • Bakken: I think folks forget the estimates of original oil in place (OOIP) and the amount of oil being produced through primary recovery (on a percentage basis)

Tesla, from SeekingAlpha:

  • In January, Tesla announced guidance for a minimum of 500,000 deliveries in 2020; this guidance was reiterated in July.
  • It set a new quarterly record in Q3 with 139,300 deliveries; total deliveries in 2020 so far now stand at 318,350.
  • In order to meet delivery guidance, the company will need to blow away its Q3 record with at least 181,650; that does not look realistic.

Sophia's Page

Two weeks ago, Sophia did not know where "middle C" was. Yesterday, she was playing Beethoven's Fifth! LOL.

She's also learning Spanish off an Apple Store app. I can't say enough about these apps. She has so many apps on her school-issued iPad she has been told, by her teacher, "no more apps." Her friend Robert keeps adding apps to her iPad, telling her these apps are "essential." These are first graders. LOL.

There was something else I was going to add, but forgot what it was. If I remember, I will add it later. 

Oh, now I remember. I pick up my phone to look for something, and then I notice that Sophia has added a bunch of "snapshat" photos. Are you kidding me? When did she do that? 

I haven't been to my barber since February/March, 2020. The lock down in north Texas began sometime in March, 2020, if I recall correctly. I probably got my last haircut in February, although it could have been in March.

Whenever it was, it's been at least six months. Sophia is now giving me my haircuts. She is the only one that has cut my hair. She used to charge $20 -- which she never saw -- LOL -- but when she lowered her price to $1 she found that she was actually getting those one-dollar bills. She says her piggy bank has become overstuffed. LOL. 

So, two comments. 

Price points are important. At $20/haircut she didn't see anything, just "IOUs." At $1 she's getting paid every time, and now her piggy bank is full.

How are the haircuts turning out? Photo from yesterday:

Produced Water -- BR -- October 6, 2020

This phenomenon was brought to my attention by a reader about a year ago, maybe two years ago. Time flies when having fun.

The well:

  • 34058, 541, BR, Kermit 8-8-32MBH, Pershing, t8/18; cum 241K 8/20; fracked 7/1/19 7/9/19; 7.1 million gallons of water; 87.7% water by mass;

Look at the rate of produced water in this well (see this post): 

BR pumped 169,000 bbls of water down this well for fracking. Look how slowly BR allowed "produced water" to return to the surface. This is simply incredible. After the frack:

  • month 1: 7K bbls
  • month: 2: 10K
  • month 3: 7K
  • month 4: 6K
  • month 5: 5K
  • month 6: --
  • month 7: --
  • month 8: 3K
  • month 9: 9K
  • month 10: 2K
  • month: 11: 5K
  • month 12: 0K

Compared to what I'm seeing by most operators, this is absolutely incredible.

An unintended (positive) consequence: a lot less "craziness" with regard to taking all that produced water away in the first six months; BR "flattens that curve" over two years. 

BR With Two More Rink/Kermit Permits -- Updated Graphic -- October 6, 2020

 From yesterday's daily activity report:

Original graphic, January 25, 2019:


Updated graphic:

They're Reading The Blog -- Fast And Furious -- 25 Minutes -- October 6, 2020

First things first: watching highlights of the BLM -- wow, there's more contact in professional basketball than we see in the NFL and almost as much as we see in the NHL. Wow. One wonders, if in addition to all the other reasons BLM viewership is dropping, soccer moms just don't like all that physicality in basketball. And, of course, "traveling" is no longer even a thing in the BLM. 

Spanish flu: lasted two years; no vaccine; four waves; 1/3 of global population infected. Chinese flu: no vaccine; second wave; we've just begun. Link here

Wow, how many times have I said the Covid-19 pandemic is widening the gap between the haves and the have-nots. Now, today, it's a headline story over at The WSJ.  The K-shaped recovery was reported weeks ago:

A two-track recovery is emerging from the country’s pandemic-driven economic contraction. Some workers, companies and regions show signs of coming out fine or even stronger. The rest are mired in a deep decline with an uncertain path ahead.

Just months ago, economists were predicting a V-shaped recovery—a rapid rebound from a steep fall—or a U-shaped path—a prolonged downturn before healing began.

What has developed is more like a K. On the upper arm of the K are well-educated and well-off people, businesses tied to the digital economy or supplying domestic necessities, and regions such as tech-forward Western cities. By and large, they are prospering. 

Exhibit 1: food makers add staff, capacity as pandemic persists. Just what Campbell, Kellogg needed. Warren Buffett is probably smiling this morning

Big food companies are working to increase their output and protect workers as the virus continues to spread, representing an opportunity for elevated sales to persist but also a risk to operations if the public-health crisis hurts their own productivity. 
Campbell’s Chief Executive Mark Clouse said surging demand for products including Pepperidge Farm Goldfish crackers prompted the company to expand production and hire even more workers than it might need at one time, in an effort to compensate for employees who need to rest given heavy workloads or are out sick or quarantining.

This one hurts: Southwest Airlines asks employees to accept pay cuts to avoid furloughs. By the way, there may be a silver lining in the pandemic with regard to air travelers and airlines.

One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- October 6, 2020

First things first! How 'bout them Yankees. Color me impressed. After dissing the Yankees just a month or so ago, I'm eating crow. Not only did they win the 3-game play-in series, they smashed the Tampa Bay Rays, 9 - 3, including a grand slam. This is so incredible. Love it. 

The missile: yesterday, a reader mentioned the fracking "missile." From a very, very old article in the Greeley Tribune, all the way back to October 14, 2016, but look at this, updated on May 13, 2020.

Uh-oh: Saudi Arabia tweaking its national budget -- see oil at $50 until 2023. Link to Irina Slav

Uh-oh: WTI smackdown.

Uh-oh: OPEC basket, but some recovery, link here. The "W" recovery. 

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1158645933

One well coming off the confidential list:

Tuesday, October 6, 2020: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter, 673 for the year

  • 36079, conf-->loc, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5B-8-2H, Little Knife, 
    • sister well on this pad:
      • 20860, 540, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-1H, Little Knife, t7/12; cum 136K 8/20; a stripper well as of 2020; 27 stages; 3.3 million lbs proppant; a lousy well from the very beginning;

RBN Energy: 4 Bcf/d Permian gas capacity headed to the beach -- what happens to flow and basins? First in a series. Archived.

Expectations for Permian natural gas are far from what they were when this year started. Lower crude oil prices and a focus on capital discipline have slashed rig counts by about two-thirds since January and there are few signs of a recovery on the horizon. As a result, just about everyone’s forecast for Permian gas growth is much lower than just a few months ago, with tepid gains through the early 2020s now the industry’s consensus view.

However, if you think all this means that Permian gas markets have lost their relevance, think again. Despite the modest production growth anticipated, the basin’s gas flow patterns will soon be thrown into shock as 4 Bcf/d of new outflow capacity to Gulf Coast markets starts up next year, when the Permian Highway and Whistler pipelines begin operation. And that shock will reverberate through regional basis relationships, including at the Waha Hub, which we expect to end 2021 much stronger than it is currently. 

First in a series.

Are Permian gas markets like Tom Brady, still interesting but on the verge of becoming less relevant? Certainly, the volatility of Waha is set to dissipate over the next few years, as less drilling and more pipelines finally rebalance the gas market out in West Texas. That means that periods of negative pricing, which hit again last Friday, are soon to be a thing of the past. But we doubt folks will lose their focus on the Permian anytime soon; after all, it’s still the most actively drilled region in the U.S. by far, and one of the most likely basins to see increased activity should oil and gas prices break out of their current doldrums.

How "Bout That Lithium? -- October 6, 2020



So, how does lithium mining look?