"YE22."
That's less than two months from now.
When will the US be debt-free?
Monday, November 7, 2022
The Road To New England -- Monday, November 7, 2022
Look at the bullets:
- warning of natural gas shortages; region is already rationing heating oil -- in the US!
- northeast consumers are poised to have the highest energy bills in decades amid lack of pipelines! In the US!
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Peter Zeihan On Energy
Medicare --- November 7, 2022
Updates
November 8, 2022: the travesty is that Medicare targets those who vote, the seniors. Low-hanging fruit: children in households where parents are under the age of 30, or perhaps, Medicare for all those under the age of eighteen.
November 8, 2022:
Medicare drug deductible cap: look at the current deductible in 2023 (appalling at $505 -- an increase of 5% y/y, but then compare to where the US Congress and Ronald Reagan wanted to set the deductible (see below) -- $600 in 1991, and the amount would have been "adjusted" each year. Can you imagine what the deductible would have been in 2023 with this bill?
The 1988 Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act, Investopedia: not only was this an incredibly bad bill, but it would have actually increased costs for medication for those on Medicare:
This bill was intended to greatly expand coverage, but at huge cost to Medicare enrollees.
From 1988: working plan --
Part D prescription medication cap lowered from ever-increasing annual requirements:
- 1988: Ronald Reagan -- nope, well sorta -- until it was repealed a year later
- because it was a very, very bad bill across the entire spectrum
- 1992: George H. W. Bush -- nope
- 1996: Bill Clinton -- nope
- 2000: Bill Clinton -- nope
- 2004: George W. Bush -- nope
- 2008: George W. Bush -- nope
- 2012: his highness -- nope
- 2016: his highness -- nope
- 2020: Donald Trump -- nope
- 2024: Joe Biden -- got 'er done.
Same with insulin. Which, by the way, should be free.
Original Post
Under Trump and every previous GOP president, no attempt -- as far as I know -- was made to lower the cap on out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs for Medicare recipients. Right now, it's about $8,000 to $10,000 per person per year. Under Biden and a Democratic US Congress:
Earnings Calendar -- November 8, 2022
Reporting 3Q22 earnings, November 8, 2022: nothing of interest.
- BWXT (72 cents)
Earnings From The Permian -- FANG -- 3Q22
FANG:
- EPS beats by 2%
- revenue: beats by 0.6%
Estimates: The Street forecast Diamondback Energy earnings rocketing 119% to $6.45 per share. Analysts expected revenue to gain 26% to $2.4 billion in Q3. Capital spending was predicted to be $492 million, up 5% from last quarter and a 26% increase vs. last year.
Results: Diamondback Energy reported EPS increasing 120% to $6.48. Third-quarter revenue came in at $2.4 billion, up 26% compared to last year. The company had $491 million in capital expenditures, coming in just below views.
Diamondback Energy also reported that it returned $874 million to its shareholders through repurchasing stock and dividends. This represents around 75% of the company's $1.16 billion third-quarter free cash flow.
Diamondback Energy produced 390,630 barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q3, a 2% increase compared to Q2 and a 3% decrease compared to a year ago.
Daily Activity Report -- Monday, November 7, 2022
Those least able to pay for Biden's policies are going to bear the brunt of high gasoline prices.
- Biden: "elitists first" -- read my lips -- "no more drilling."
- Prince MBS: "Saudi first"
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 40.
WTI: $91.79.
Louisiana light (proxy for Bakken): $95.48 (data may be two days old).
Natural gas: $6.944
Two new permits, #39389 -#39390, inclusive:
- Operator: CLR
- Field: Hamlet (Divide County)
- Comments:
- CLR has permits for a Dalin well and a Goodson well, NENW 21-160-96, to bee sided 300 FNL with Dalin to be 2175 FWL and the Goodson to be 2220 FWL.
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
- 38726, 1,083, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; cum minimal production;
For more on the Cannonball Federal see this note from December 28, 2021: Slawson doesn't drill many wells in the Bakken, but when they do, they drill some great wells.
CHRD Dividend -- November 7, 2022
This site has been known to make errors (?).
Is this accurate? If so, still time to buy.
This is not an investment site. No recommendation. Usual disclaimer applies.
****************
It's Accurate
- Produced 172.5 MBoe/d in 3Q22, above the high-end of guidance released in August 2022. Oil volumes of 96.2 MBo/d exceeded the mid-point of the guidance;
- E&P and other CapEx was $230.1MM in 3Q22, below the low-end of August 2022 guidance largely due to timing. Full year 2022 CapEx guidance is unchanged;
- Combined LOE and GPT costs were below the mid-point of August 2022 guidance;
- Net cash provided by operating activities was $783.6MM and net income from continuing operations was $941.6MM;
- Adjusted EBITDA(1) was $564.6MM and Adjusted Free Cash Flow(1) was $325.7MM;
- Total return of capital for 3Q22 set at 85% of Adjusted Free Cash Flow;
- Declared a base-plus-variable cash dividend of $3.67 per share of common stock. The dividend will be payable on November 29, 2022 to shareholders of record as of November 15, 2022;
- Repurchased approximately $125MM, or approximately 1.2MM shares during 3Q22 at a weighted average price per share of $106.25;
- Cash of $658.9MM exceeded debt of $400.0MM, as of September 30, 2022;
- Monetized 16MM units of Crestwood Equity Partners LP (NASDAQ: CEQP) ("Crestwood") for net proceeds (pre-tax) of $428.2MM. As of September 30, 2022, Chord owned approximately 5MM Crestwood units (less than 5% of Crestwood's units outstanding);
- Received $13.7MM distributions from Crestwood in 3Q22 (included in Adjusted EBITDA); Progressed integration activities associated with the merger. Chord continues to expect approximately $100MM or more of combined capital, operating and G&A synergies;
The company:
Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: CHRD) ("Chord", "Chord Energy" or the "Company") today reported financial and operating results for the quarter ending September 30, 2022, declared base and variable dividends and provided an updated outlook for the business. The Company completed the merger of equals transaction between Oasis Petroleum Inc. ("Oasis") and Whiting Petroleum Corporation ("Whiting") on July 1, 2022. The results for the third quarter of 2022 discussed within this release represent the consolidated results for Chord. The results for the nine months ended September 30, 2022 include the consolidated results for Chord for the third quarter of 2022 plus the results of legacy Oasis for the period prior to completion of the merger of equals on July 1, 2022, unless otherwise noted.
This is not a recommendation, this is not an investment site, but I'm building a position in CHRD as fast as I can.
Is this the "DVN" in the Bakken?
I Guess He Meant It -- For The Archives -- November 7, 2022
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Thank goodnessfor North Dakota and Texas. We're still hopeful.
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Biden's Policies As Spooky As Halloween
Biden's Policies As Spooky As Halloween
Everything's Bigger In Texas -- Even The Football Scores -- November 7, 2022
Top energy story added: link here. US vows no more drilling, over the weekend.
- CVX: up 57 cents; up 0.3%;
- DVN: up 40 cents; up 0.9%;
- MNRL up 58 cents; up 1.8%;
- EOG: up 15 cents; up 0.11%
- OKE: up 47 cents; up 0.77%
Football or basketball? Link here. In fact, both teams agreed to leave their defensive units off the field for the entire game.
Airport update, link here, Rzeszów airport; RZE, wiki. The big story is the thick, broad blue line from southwestern England (think USAF / RAF air stations):
MNRL: Laser-Focused On Dividends -- 3Q22
WTI: just turned green, 8:31 a.m. CT -- Novembe7, 2022
Earnings today (forecast):
- BioNTech ($3.66), last year's EPS - $14.56;
- FANG ($6.51)
MNRL: increased dividend? 3Q22 --
- record daily production, including a 19% increase in Permian Basin volumes
- 10.8 net activity wells
- 6.7 net DUCs
- 4.1 net permits
- 1.9 net DUCs converted to PDP during 3Q22
- 207 gross wells spud during 3Q22; 1.7 net locations
- acquired 365 net royalty acres; deployed $12.2 million in mineral acquisition capital;
- record royalty revenues of $92.8 million
- net income totaling $44.4 million
- dividend:
- base dividend of 16 cents / share
- variable dividend increased 7% sequentially to 65 cents per share
- 75% payout ratio
EOG - Utica, link here:
For The Oboe Players -- Sorry, Not Sorry -- November 7, 2022
For the archives: curious to see if three justices think black lives matter as well as oboe lives matter.
The Investors' Page -- November 7, 2022
This is not an investment site. No recommendations. Usual disclaimers apply.
Berkshire earnings, 3Q22: there's only one company whose quarterly earnings interest me not, but for those that are interested.
Investing, link here:
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Strider Riders
Update On The Top Energy Story For 2022 -- For The Archives -- November 7, 2022
This is one Peter Zeihan got wrong. Link here.
Also, here:
Energy giant ExxonMobil Corporation is set to sell its troubled California offshore oil and gas property while incurring a loss of about $2 billion.
Sable Offshore, a blank check company, has agreed to buy the Santa Ynez oilfield. Sable proposes resuming production at the idled oilfield by 2026, failing which, Exxon will buy back the entire business.
The Santa Ynez oilfield is located about 9 miles (14 km) off the California coast. The property includes three oil and gas platforms, a pipeline, and processing facilities.
Sable seeks approvals to produce 28,100 barrels of oil and gas daily from the current 112 wells, with the possible exploration of 100 more wells. Sable will finance about 97% of the $643 million purchase price through a five-year loan. According to Reuters, Sable is under pressure to reach an agreement by March 1 or to return investor funds.
A pipeline burst caused a major oil spill into the Pacific Ocean in 2015. Following this, the property shut down operations. Since then, Exxon has failed to successfully restart operations at the oilfield. In March 2022, Exxon’s last attempt to restart production at Santa Ynez was rejected by Santa Barbara officials. The authorities cited the excessive use of trucks to transport oil to refineries as a cause for worry.
Sable must not have gotten the "Biden memo."
Tesla In Texas -- No Longer Pigs In Space -- November 7, 2022
Parking lots pack in north Texas: my wife noticed that over the weekend and mentioned it to me. I noticed the same thing all week. The parking lots look like those we remember at Christmas pre-Covid. Then we saw this:
And again, Tesla penetration in north Texas is striking.
City not noted but HEB is dominant in San Antonio, TX.
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Meanwhile ...
So I'm sitting on Yahoo Finance Live on jobs report Friday, almost in a state of disbelief. Non-farm payrolls rose by an impressive 261,000. That didn’t strike me as a recessionary print. Then an economist sitting next to me says he sees a recession in 2023 and a 2% rise in the unemployment rate.
Under Armour’s third quarter sucked last week, and so did the company’s forward guidance. And yet the stock was embraced by the market. Crocs had a solid quarter, but inventory ballooned. Red flag, says my former analyst self. The Street welcomed the quarter anyway. Etsy had a squishy quarter, and the market took it in stride. Same goes EBay.
Then Starbucks reported an 11% same-store sales increase despite ever-inflating prices for its various coffees. Where is the recession there?
"What we focus on is really: How do we sustain that ticket?" Starbucks CFO Rachel Ruggeri told me and Yahoo Finance's Brooke DiPalma in an interview. "Because it isn't just pricing, it's actually volume as well, we've seen our customers purchase more... so we're seeing increased volume."
And Mastercard’s CEO Michel Miebach tells me there is nothing in his business that suggests recession is imminent.
"Currently, based on the data that we have, there is no such indication [of a recession]," Miebach said. "The consumer is resilient, and that resilience will last. We have no indication that there is a near-term recession."
Backstory To The Natural Gas Turmoil In The Permian Late October -- November 7, 2022
From RBN Energy over the weekend: outlook for Permian gross gas production vs processing capacity, part 3.
... the latest source of turmoil in the Permian gas market: pipeline maintenance that sent spot gas prices at Waha Hub, the region’s benchmark trading point, to negative territory last week for the first time in two years — an indication of just how vulnerable and sensitive the basin is to midstream constraints.
... briefly summarize, two major takeaway pipelines — Kinder Morgan’s Gulf Coast Express (GCX) Pipeline and Kinder’s El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG) system — conducted maintenance last week, and the partially overlapping events took as much as 1.3 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity offline at one point. With power demand and exports to Mexico in a seasonal slump, the capacity cuts hit Waha hard — absolute prices settled below zero for the flow days October 26-27. Intraday prices traded just below negative $2/MMBtu at times and averaged as low as minus $1.165/MMBtu for gas day October 27. The price disruption had various knock-on effects, including encouraging more ethane recovery and raising concerns of increased gas flaring.
The maintenance events wrapped up by October 28, and cash for the weekend package rebounded to more than $3/MMBtu, according to the Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) Daily Gas Price Index. However, the outages provided a good preview of just how little spare pipeline capacity is available on the intrastate pipelines leaving the basin and underscored the likelihood of additional negative price events occurring before more pipeline capacity comes online next fall, particularly if multiple maintenance and market events converge as they did last week.
Back to The Bakken -- Monday, November 7, 2022
Focus on fracking: link here.
- US gasoline supplies at an eight-year low;
- oil supplies at a 21-year low -- and President Biden, yesterday, vows "no more drilling"
- oil+products at a 17-year low -- and President Biden, yesterday, vows "more drilling" -- links everywehere
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 41
WTI: $91.96.
Natural gas: $7.092
Monday, November 7, 2022: 13 for the month, 50 for the quarter, 495 for the year.
38833, conf, Hunt, Palermo-King 156-90-5-34H 1,
38382, conf, Oasis, Swenson Federal 5197 43-35 4B,
38336, conf, Oasis, Soto 5097 12-3 5B,
35717, conf, Enerplus, FB Leviathan 151-94-27A-34-17T,
Sunday, November 6, 2022: 9 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 491 for the year.
37847, conf, Whiting, Make 11-27-2HU,
35493, conf, Enerplus, FB Leviathan 151-94-27A-34-19T2,
Saturday, November 5, 2022: 7 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 489 for the year.
38873, conf, Kraken, Nash 15-22 6H,
38520, conf, Whiting, Platt 44-28TFX,
38335, conf, Oasis, Soto 5097 12-3 4B,
35718, conf, Enerplus, FB Leviathan,
RBN Energy: outlook for Permian gross gas production vs processing capacity, part 3. Archived.
The crude-oil-driven Permian has been a hotbed of midstream development in recent years and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. RBN estimates Permian gross gas production surpassed 22 Bcf/d last month and projects that, if unconstrained by infrastructure, it would grow by another 4 Bcf/d or so over the next couple of years. One determinant of that rate of growth is adequate capacity to process gross gas volumes. In today’s RBN blog, we conclude this series with an assessment of the timing of processing capacity additions in the basin vs. RBN’s Mid-case gross gas production forecast.
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