To Be Stuck Inside Of Mobile With The Memphis Blues Again? Intel, Cisco -- Tale Of Two Giants -- November 13, 2025

Locator: 49417AI. 

Personal. For the archives. For the extended family. Not meant for the general audience. See disclaimer for the blog.  

AI prompt:

AI. Large data centers. Chips. This is just meaningless random chatter but .... well here goes.  

Going from "large data centers" to "AI factories" is a huge, huge, huge jump in the "cloud" story. 

The mainstream media is still trying to get their heads around all of this. 

Investors seem fixated on semiconductor chips because it's impossible to keep up with large data centers, who's building them, who the subcontractors are providing all the support for CoreWeave, AWS, FluidStack, Fairwater, etc. 

But all the talk about semiconductors (Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Micron, etc) has almost become a sideshow -- important for those involved with that industry but in the big scheme of things, a sideshow. The real show now: large data centers and an even bigger show -- the main event, as it were -- AI factories.  

Which brings me to this. A tale of two companies: Intel and Cisco. For investors, both have been somewhat of a disappointment. Coming out of the dot-com craze, Cisco was fortunate to come out of it alive, but for the past 20 years, Cisco has sort of just "been there." Holding on, doing important things, but not much for investors. 

For Intel, it's been even worse. We've (you and I) talked about how it happened, doesn't matter now, but Intel went from the biggest US semiconductor company to barely hanging on. But unlike Intel, Cisco made no fatal mistakes. 

Cisco simply did what it did. Infrastructure. Networking. Wiring. And then, through no luck of its own, except hanging around, what pops up? Large data centers, AI factories. 

Quick: name the one infrastructure company / the one subcontractor best positioned for this fourth industrial revolution? Cisco. 

Some old-school investors -- like my dad, in his 90's bought Cisco during the dot-com craze and not knowing what was going on kept his Cisco even though its share price plummeted. Dad simply was glacial in acting and never got around to selling Cisco. And now Cisco is in the cat-bird's seat. 

Meanwhile, the semiconductor companies are in a circular firing squad -- some with real bullets (Nvidia and AMD, for example); some with blanks (Intel?), but it's basically a shoot-out among Intel-Nvidia-AMD for GPUs/CPUs and Intel looks like the weakest link at the moment. Those old-school investors who held Cisco for lack of understanding what was even going on seemed to have lucked out. I'm going to sit back, have a Coke and listen to your thoughts.

ChatGPT: several pages. Whoo-hoo! It's going to be a long, productive evening. Hey, speaking of which, Amazon Prime Thursday night football.

Fastest way to see if one's on the right track? Run it past ChatGPT.

Second fastest way to see if one's on the right track? Follow the money.

This was apparently a bad day on the market; I don't know. I missed it, except for checking these two tickers now: 

Tickers: 

 

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A Musical Interlude

Link here. 

Seven minutes, five seconds long.  

AI Factories -- November 13, 2025

Locator: 49416AI. 

AI factories is a new concept that's been in the news for the past couple of days.

AI factories: I've added a new tab at the top of the page. Link here. 

Right now, a "synonym" for "AI factory" is FluidStack, a privately held company.

I've actually mentioned "FluidStack" once before on the blog. Back on February 10, 2025. Link here.

AI: France, UAE agree to collaborate on major 1 GW AI data center. Links everywhere. WSJ here.

To finance the first tranche of construction, FluidStack said it plans to deploy its own cash and secure loans for $10.3 billion. It said talks are continuing with some of the world’s largest AI developers about using the new facility, which could house around 120,000 of Nvidia’s AI chips in its first phase and some 500,000 by 2028 if the site is fully built out.

The company said it could further expand to a 10 gigawatt facility, 10 times larger, by 2030. 

Much of the financing is necessary to purchase the chips, which have been in short supply in recent years amid the AI boom. AI-computing companies such as CoreWeave have pioneered new financing vehicles secured by Nvidia’s chips and contracts with AI developers to raise billions of dollars for new data centers, something FluidStack said it plans to do as well.

FluidStack said it is in regular contact with Nvidia about the project and has no worries about being able to finance or get access to the chips. “Nvidia has told me that they will send those chips when we need them,” César Maklary, the company’s co-founder and president, said in an interview. Nvidia declined to comment on the deal.

Wow, wow, wow. I love this blog. LOL.

Everything below this line is for my benefit alone. No one else should read this. Much of this is wrong; many of the analogies are wrong, but it's how I am pigeon-holing things right now. 

Right now, only three companies to think about when talking about large data centers ("the cloud"): AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google.

ChatGPT broke down the customers to "the cloud" into twelve (12) sectors and said which "cloud" would win that sector (Azure wins one sector; Google wins two sectors; AWS wins three sectors).

But when "we"evolve to AI factories, the numbers change dramatically: it's much more evenly divided among the three (Azure, Google, and AWS). 

Absolutely fascinating. 

I spent three hours this afternoon talking with my imaginary friend with regard to AI factories. It's all in print, but way too much to put on the "main" blog. This conversation will be posted elsewhere at a later date. But this is a huge, huge deal. 

Large data centers: regional or state facilities. 

AI factories: national facilities. AI factories: multiple powers of compute power compared to large data centers. This is a huge, huge deal. 

Compute power:

• Supercomputer --> large data centers --> super-duper large data centers --> super-super-duper large data centers --> humongous-super-super-duper large data centers --> AI factories. 

AI prompt:

I understand this, that CoreWeave is the largest AI / LDC operator in the US, and that Cisco is huge in wiring servers, so one would think that the two (CoreWeave and Cisco) are competitors, but my hunch is that CoreWeave is the "Big Kahuna" responsible for the overall LDC from start to finish and Cisco is simply one of the many subcontractors. 

Reply: link here. 

• Thoughts?Coreweave: largest large data center contractor.
• FluidStack: AI factories. 

If you need a large data center, go with Coreweave. [By the way, Ellendale, ND --> CoreWeave.]

If you need an AI factory, go with FluidStack. 

Four New Permits; Twelve Permits Renewed; Devon Acquires 850 Wells From WPX -- Thursday -- November 13, 2025

Locator: 49415B. 

AI factories: I've added a new tab at the top of the page. Link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $58.90.

Active rigs: 32.

Change of operator: ten wells -- from White Rock Oil & Gas, LLC, to Kraken Operating, LLC.

Change of operator, approximately  - 850 wells - from WPX Energy Williston to Devon Energy Williston, LLC. This includes some SWD wells.

Four new permits, #42472 - #42475, inclusive:

• Operators: Phoenix Operating (3); Petro-Hunt
• Fields: Kittleson Slough (Mountrail County); and, North Tioga (Burke County);
• Comments:
• Petro-Hunt has a permit for a MM Wold well, lot 1, section 7-159-94, 
• to be sited 330 FNL and 932 FWL; drilling unit, six sections; bottom hole locatioin NENE 25-160-95; so if sited in 159N and with bottom hole in 160N the laterals run north;
• Phoenix Operating has permits for three Afseth wells, NENW 34-158-91, 
• to be sited 560 FNL and 1730 / 1790 FWL.

Twelve permits renewed:

• CLR (4): Schroeder (2); Marlene (2); Stoneview, Williams County;
• Hess (2): SC-Ellingsberg, Truax, Williams County;
• Hunt (2): Palermo, Nichols; Ross, Mountrail County;
• Murex (2): HL-Harlen Lahti, Sanish, Mountrail;
• Whiting: Klose Federal, Glass Bluff, McKenzie;
• Formentera Operations: STR1, Woburn, Burke County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed: 

• 42102, 533, Hunt, Burke 155-90-36-25H-1, Mountrail. Parshall oil field, wells of interest, all three below, one-section spacing units: 
• 17800, 685, Hunt Oil, RS-State E-155-90 36-1, Parshall, t4/09; cum 451K 8/25 offline; no jump in production;
• 17132, 608/IA, Hunt Oil, Nelson 1-25H, Parshall t9/08; cum 228K 4/25 offline; no jump in production;
• 20910, 447, Hunt Oil, Nelson 2-25H, Parshall t12/13; cum 157K 9/25; no jump in production;

Headlines -- November 13, 2025

Locator: 49414ARCHIVES. 

Governor Newsom's hand caught in the cookie jar: finally some adulting in DC --  

 Google, link here:

Chips, link here. 

Chips, Beth, link here:

Energy needs in Virginia, link here:

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The Magazine Page

Two recent articles on AI in The New Yorker.

October 27, 2025. 

November 3, 2025. 

Laura Loomer by Antonia Hitchens, p. 24, November 17, 2025.  An 11-page essay on Loomer -- a long essay even by The New Yorker's standards. And the 11 pages does not include a full page photo of Laura Loomer -- the article takes up 12 pages in this issue. 

"White privilege" much? Antonia Hitchens is the daughter of the very famous writer, provocateur and celebrity, Christopher Hitchens. One of my favorites. I'm curious to see how his daughter writes. This should be good. I've added Laura Loomer to the president's rogue gallery. 

Art of the real, Hilton Als, p. 53, The New Yorker, November 17, 2025: such a great lede --

On certain days, I'd cut schol and head over to the Museum of Modern Art to dream awhile. This was in the mid-nineteen-seventies, and my high school -- then called the High School for Performing Arts --was on West Forty-sixth Street. I lived in Brooklyn, and the world within the wals of that school, and beyond them, was a wonderland to me. 

A Deep Look At Eric Nuttal's Post Over At x -- November 13, 2025

Locator: 49413CVX. 

Tag: Chevron 

Take a look at this energy supply / demand discussion with Eric Nuttall and ChatGPT (at this link but also down below so one doesn't have to leave this site).

ChatGPT then, at my request, provided two charts comparing CAPEX vs shareholder return.

Thought experiment: 

• let's assume all operators were similar to CVX with regard to Capex and shareholder return; not a bad assumption -- see historic price of oil (farther down)
• shareholder return spiked three years in 2023 but increased significantly starting in 2021
• one interpretation: seed corn decreased in years between 2015 - 2020 due to "green" policies, fear-mongering, and bad, bad IEA forecasting
• seed corn decrease resulted in relative shortages of oil three years later leading to increased prices of oil leading to huge investor returns

Now:

• CVX says it will now focus on shareholder return, not more drilling, not increased Capex
• is CVX looking back at 2015 - 2020 with regard to Capex and shareholder return three to eight years later?
• is it possible we will see similar shareholder returns three to eight years from now (starting in 2028)?
• by the way, in 2028, the acquisition costs of Guyana will largely be behind Chevron 

Here's an analysis of the historic price of oil:

By the way, what was the reason for the surge in CVX capex in 2023 -- clearly an outlier:
not due to Guyana:

• due to CVX's massive focus on ramping up the Permian and focus on megaprojects outside the Permian (not including Guyana)
• from ChatGPT:

Lots and lots of data here and I'm not good at articulating the whole story, but it certainly raises the question whether investors might do well with CVX now? Note the blog's disclaimer.

By the way: take a look at coal in the graphic in Eric Nuttall's graphic above (and below): whether its STEPS or CPS, the demand for coal is going to fall precipitously between now and 2050. At least that's one thing "everyone" seems to agree upon. The graphs are hard to interpret, but it all looks b 2025, oil is going to be the bigger contributor to investor returns than natural gas. And oil is basically transportation -- so what's this all about?

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If Supply Is Unable To Keep Up With Demand,
It Will Be Due To Past Polices  

From an earlier post.

Energy projections: I really have no idea what this means. Link here. 

AI prompt: 

An analyst wrote:

"Devastatingly to sentiment, the IEA told us for nearly 5 years that peak oil demand was imminent. 

Today, they admit under their base scenario that oil demand will grow to at least 2050! 

Too late/damage done: "the fear of peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply." 

What does he mean that "peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply"? Does it simply mean that the oil companies can't keep up to increasing demand? ChatGPT's reply was interesting, as always. 

In short:

• “Peak demand” was supposed to protect us from oil scarcity.Instead, fear of it caused underinvestment, which now risks actual scarcity.
• That’s why the analyst calls it “devastating to sentiment”:
• markets and policymakers relied on a forecast that discouraged production —and now they face the opposite problem.
• oil companies can’t keep up with increasing demand.
• But more precisely, they won’t be able to because earlier policy and investor pressure — based on the belief in “peak demand” — discouraged the very investments needed to sustain future supply.

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Disclaimer

Brief Reminder

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.

Thursday -- November 13, 2025

Locator: 49412B. 

Tag: Chevron CVX 

Energy projections: I really have no idea what this means. Link here. 

AI prompt: 

An analyst wrote:

"Devastatingly to sentiment, the IEA told us for nearly 5 years that peak oil demand was imminent. 

Today, they admit under their base scenario that oil demand will grow to at least 2050! 

Too late/damage done: "the fear of peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply." 

What does he mean that "peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply"? Does it simply mean that the oil companies can't keep up to increasing demand? ChatGPT's reply was interesting, as always. 

In short:

• “Peak demand” was supposed to protect us from oil scarcity.Instead, fear of it caused underinvestment, which now risks actual scarcity.
• That’s why the analyst calls it “devastating to sentiment”:
• markets and policymakers relied on a forecast that discouraged production —and now they face the opposite problem.
• oil companies can’t keep up with increasing demand.
• But more precisely, they won’t be able to because earlier policy and investor pressure — based on the belief in “peak demand” — discouraged the very investments needed to sustain future supply.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $59.13. Link here.

New wells reporting: link here. 

RBN Energy: link here.