Wednesday, July 16, 2025

It's Not Tariffs, Per Se -- It's Balance Of Payments -- Some Folks Finally Get It -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48760TARIFFS.

Link here. 

Link here. Put the headphones and turn up the volume. Time for Cher? We're getting close!

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Fantastic Four! July 16, 2025

Locator: 48759TECH.

Link here.

Take on me!

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Wow, I Completely Missed This! Whoo-Hoo! - July 16, 2025

Locator: 48758SLB.

Link here.

Come on, Eileen! Join in on the chorus. Put the headphones and turn up the volume. Come on! Eileen!

Link here.

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No More "Cuts" This Year -- You Can Take That To The Bank -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48757BERLIN.

Link here. 

The market is getting way too frothy. A rate cut or two or three would be a disaster. Let the market go. JPow: make the announcement. No more rate cuts this year. Take my breath away.

Wow, I miss the USAF! Yeah, I know this is the navy, but it's all the same to me ...

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Pedal To The Metal -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48756DRONES.

Pedal to the metal: that's the US DOD and drone development. Eighteen new prototypes in eighteen months. Link here. Wow, I miss the USAF!

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

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Comey's Daughter Fired -- President Trump Has Been President Seven Months -- Does It Get Any Better Than This? July 16, 2025

Locator: 48755FBI.

Links to this story everywhere. 

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

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Tomorrow Morning When You Wake Up --- I'm Setting My Alarm For 1:00 A.M -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48754TSMC.

Bottom line:

  • analysts:
    • last year: $1.48 / share
    • expectations this year: $2.37 / share
  • Or, if you can't keep track of all these numbers:
    • last year: $1.50
    • this year: $2.50

Anticipation. Beth:


Tonight, make it magnificent! Link here:

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) is scheduled to report its Q2 2025 earnings before market open on Thursday, July 17, 2025 . The earnings conference call and webcast will be held at 14:00 Taiwan time, which is 2:00 AM Eastern Time.


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A Musical Interlude

What is love?

Link here.

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Focus On Dividends -- Cummins -- CMI -- Victor Davis Hanson -- Motivation Core -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48753VDH.

Announced today, Cummins (CMI) increased its dividend by 10%, from $1.82 to $2.00. 

The other day the Bank of New York Mellon (BK) increased its dividend by 13%.

If an heir of the founder of Cummins was living only on CMI stock, all of a sudden, their annual income just went up 10%. Likewise, if an heiress of the founder of New York Mellon was living only on BK stock, all of a sudden, their annual income just went up 13%. And federal income tax on qualified dividends is capped at 15%.  An income jump 10% or 13% significantly exceeds the current rate of inflation, about 2 - 3%. Some of the details might not be quite right, but you get the idea.

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Common Sense

Link here.

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Five New Permits Including A Permit For A Wildcat In Golden Valley County -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48752B.

Air India 171: The WSJ is now reporting the obvious. Link here. The article is billed as an "exclusive." There's nothing new in that article that hasn't been reported before.

BRK-B: on another day when the market surges, BRK-B was only able to eke out a 0.25% gain after a 14% decline over the last three months. 

Ford recall: link here. Question for ChatGPT: what auto manufacturer has had the most recalls in the past ten years? I've asked ChatGPT twice, on two different computers, and got the same answer for #1 and #2, but in one case the answer was much more expansive. #1 I suspected; #2, I was surprised.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $66.67.

Active rigs: 30.

Five new permits, #42129 - #42133, inclusive:


  • Operators: EOG (4); WGO Resources

  • Fields: Phaelens Butte (McKenzie County); a wildcat in Golden Valley.
  • Comments:

    • WGO Resources has a permit for a wildcat well, a Trester well, in Golden Valley county; NWNE 21-139-104, 
      • to be sited 506 FNL and 1842 FEL;
    • 
EOG has permits for four Mandaree wells, lot 4, section 7-149-94, 
      • to be sited 840 / 893 FSL and 840 / 980 FWL

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 
41355, 90, Five States Operating, BC 2-21H, Stark County;
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The Panic Has Started -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48751PANIC.

I wake up each day thanking God that Hillary Clinto was not elected president, and we owe a lot of thanks to Rush. No one has yet been able to fill Rush Limbaugh's shoes. 

Link here.

Folks may remember what was going on in the opposition party when this photo was posted. 

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A Musical Interlude

Link here.

Lego Set Of The Day

Lego set #10269 Volkswagen T2 Camper Van was retired at the end of 2022. It was released in August, 2021, and, according to Brick Fanatics, had a relatively short production run of just over a year.

I'm not sure how I got one of these in 2025 -- I ordered it from Amazon so maybe had some in stock and had raised the price. I paid about $200 for this brand new Lego set. 

Based on number of pieces in the set, one estimates the original price of around $220.

From Lego:

My photos:


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Semiconductors And The innovators -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48750BOOKS.

Book for the week, reading it in conjunction with The Story of Semiconductors, John Orton, c. 2004. 

Below, by Walter Isaacson, c. 2014. If I take notes, they will be posted here.

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A Relatively Nice Well For Kraken In Bully Oil Field -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48749KRAKEN.

The well:

  • 40375, A/F, Kraken/Iron Oil Operating (original operator), Stocke 6-4-9H, Bully, t9/24; cum 171K 5/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20253112377123703204638210379240
BAKKEN4-202530145101456534740412394091613
BAKKEN3-2025271487514895354753612935248603
BAKKEN2-20252819605195524308242354397382381
BAKKEN1-20253125795257645668445250383026688
BAKKEN12-20241712946129433216923428215581646
BAKKEN11-2024292322623212595463867837799639
BAKKEN10-202431282352824575352444694418911
BAKKEN9-20241920170200235209519574175191888
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Slawson Fisherman, Payara Wells In Big Bend Starting To Report Production -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48748SLAWSON.

The wells:

  • 40522, conf, Slawson, Fisherman 5-21 28TFH,
  • 40554, IA/DRL, Slawson, Fisherman 4-21-28H; t--; cum -- 5/25;
  • 40560, A/DRL, Slawson, Prowler 1-SLH; t1/25; cum 103K 5/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20252917016183911236311669104811043
BAKKEN4-20253021584214071624213983122811400
BAKKEN3-2025312490224657203211632515201820
BAKKEN2-2025282630725157245281714116051820
BAKKEN1-20251112869128691206479767005882
BAKKEN12-20240000000
BAKKEN11-202443850181093100270
  • 40561, IA/DRL, Slawson, Payara 5 SLTFH, t--; cum -- 5/25;
  • 40562, IA/DRL, Slawson, Snoop Alley 6-16-9TFH, t1/25; cum 45K 5/25;

Older wells of interest:

  • 17336, 439, Slawson, Payara 1-21H, Van Hook, t8/08; cum 255K 5/25; small halo effect:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2025141121128011567516765
BAKKEN4-20253028583352267817471368229
BAKKEN3-2025313047268031211552922475
BAKKEN2-202513116868615065150450
BAKKEN1-20250000000
BAKKEN12-20240000000
BAKKEN11-20240000000
BAKKEN10-20240000000
BAKKEN9-20240000000
BAKKEN8-2024001780000
BAKKEN7-2024292812211535484012
BAKKEN6-2024303262191474432885
BAKKEN5-2024313124391407475920
  • 17349,  929, Slawson, Voyager 1-28H, Van Hook, t11/08; cum 336K 5/25; small halo effect:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20252622491999254010479170
BAKKEN4-20253024283036246617341017567
BAKKEN3-2025312295206931401548889504
BAKKEN2-2025282241204531881597853604
BAKKEN1-202519152815702179982538349
BAKKEN12-2024151710148023091086604407
BAKKEN11-20240000000
BAKKEN10-20240000000
BAKKEN9-20240000000
BAKKEN8-2024152345181052741972
BAKKEN7-2024314894491545253691
BAKKEN6-2024304704781715373870
BAKKEN5-2024304934951495323802
BAKKEN4-2024304902451825383862
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Anti-Trust: How Do You Buy A Company Without Buying The Company -- Buy The Name, The IP Address, And People -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48747WINDSURF.

Anti-trust: how do you buy a company without buying the company --

  • buy the name;
  • buy the IP address; and,
  • buy the people.

Search: Google is paying $2.4 billion for Windsurf's IP and staff after it (Windsurf) ditched OpenAI over Microsoft ties. 

The $2.4 billion includes: hiring its CEO, Varun Mohan, co-founder Douglas Chen, and other key employees to join Google's DeepMind division.

The deal was made possible because OpenAI's earlier attempts to acquire Windsurf, at a higher price, about $3 billion, fell through.

Windsurf was said to be hesitant to proceed with the acquisition by OpenAI because that meant Microsoft would gain access to Windsurf's own "sensitive" technology.

Windsurf:

  • formerly known as Codeium
  • an AI-powered coding tool that enhances developer productivity through tools that integrate into existing workflows
  • founded in 2021 by Varun Mohan and Douglas Chen
  • based in Mountain View, CA
  • originally began as Exafunction, focusing on optimizing GPU utilization at scale

So, it's for coders, and likely to be able to do the work of dozens or more of human coders.

Talking with someone who writes code, that individual says he recently subscribed to Anthropic (at my suggestion, and that's 100% true). He says that something that would have taken months to write, he wrote in twelve hours using Anthropic which is optimized for writing code.
We are in a new world.

By the way, this might be a great time to explore Apple TV+ "Severence." 

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Sophia Getting Her Fourth Stripe 

The next stripe will be the "next belt."


July 11, 2025.

Jinho Jiu-Jitsu, Grapevine, TX.

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Man Of Action Vs Man Of Inaction -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48746THEFED.

The buzz: JPow likely to be fired "soon." We are in uncharted territory. 

Later: Trump denies story.
Tea leaves: Chair --> Board of Governors --> US Congress. Even the most partisan Republicans in the US House are telling the Speaker this is a "bridge too far."
Because of "ambiguity" of who would really be in charge of the process, the likelihood is that this could drag out for months. The one thing the market does not like, that we can all agree on, is uncertainty.

Meth: interesting, interesting article in The NYT. Finally someone describes in easy-to-understand the addictive powers of "meth" and and why it's literally impossible to control.

Meth causes the brain to release exorbitant amounts of dopamine, the feel-good neurotransmitter.
On a ho-hum day, an individual’s dopamine levels could rise to, say, 50.
“If you have the best meal ever, the best sex ever, the best day of your life, you can get your levels up to 100.” [When Apple hits a new high, my dopamine levels triple.]
When someone uses crack, another stimulant, within seconds their levels rise to 300, she continues, “or three times the best day of your life.”
But on meth, dopamine levels skyrocket to 1,000 and can remain there for hours: “No medication can safely compete with that.”
Given the ferocity of meth addiction, it almost defies credulity that small rewards can quell drug hunger.
But treatment experts say that as negative screening results accrue and abstinence builds, the immediacy of a reward and the ability to purchase something satisfying can bathe the brain in cascades of frequent, modest dopamine jolts.
Appetite returns. So does sleep. And patients become more amenable to counseling.

Satellites, Amazon: 

  • Amazon's Kuiper internet satellites
  • Elon Musk's SpaceX Falcon 9 can launch upwards of 36 of these satellites at a time
  • 24 were launched today, Wednesday, July 16, 2025
  • SpaceX's Starlink has 8,000 satellites in order
  • Amazon is trying to catch up
  • the article says Amazon has 83 launches scheduled including three "rides" with SpaceX

Amazon launched Project Kuiper in 2019 with a goal of providing broadband internet from a constellation of more than 3,000 satellites. The company is working under a tight deadline imposed by the Federal Communications Commission that requires it to have about 1,600 satellites in orbit by the end of July 2026.
  • Back of the envelope:
    • 1,600 - 78 = 1,522
      • 1,522 / 36 = 42 launches
      • 1,522 / 24 = 63 launches
    • 533 days until December 31, 2026
      • 533 days / 53 launches = ten days between each launch
    • that seems like a lot of launches
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Hump Day -- Already -- July 16, 2025

Locator: 48745B.

Inflation numbers today: even better than yesterday. Tariffs? LOL. DJIA, pre-market, up 145 points. 

Oracle: link to TWSJ. 

BRK-B: holy mackerel. I didn't see this until this morning. 

BRK-B dropped an almost-unbelievable $6.18 yesterday. Amazing. Absolutely scary. A lot of folks are not happy with their 401(k)'s, IRAs, Roths, etc. April 2, 2025, $537; yesterday, $470 --> down almost 15% in three months. I'm sure BRK-B will close higher than last year for full year (December 31, 2025) but compared to the NASDAQ .... up 17%....maybe compare BRK's top holdings with the top ten tech stocks.

  • S&P 500:
    • April 2, 2025: 5,671
    • July 15, 2025 (yesterday): 6,244
    • percent change over three months: down 10% (again, vs almost 15% down for BRK during same time span)

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $65.69.

New wells:

  • Thursday, July 17, 2025: 27 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 457 for the year,
    • 40863, conf, Grayson Mill, Martin 32-36 2H,
  • Wednesday, July 16, 2025: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 456 for the year,
    • 40850, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17 8TFH,
    • 40789, conf,  Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 4B,
    • 40787, conf, Oasis, Merlin 5602 43-15 3B,

RBN Energy: future looks bright for CITGO's three US refineries as courtroom drama nears end. 

The bitter, eight-year battle to control CITGO Petroleum’s three U.S. refineries could soon be coming to an end. A Delaware court has recommended a $7.38 billion bid from Dalinar Energy Corp., the U.S. subsidiary of Canadian miner Gold Reserve Ltd. There’s opposition, but a final decision could be just weeks away. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what a resolution would mean for the three refineries, which have a combined capacity of more than 800 Mb/d. 

Let’s start with some background. As we detailed in I’ll Be Around, there’s been a primarily below-the-radar battle playing out in the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware since 2017 about how best to help satisfy the claims of a dozen-plus creditors who collectively lost more than $20 billion when the government of Venezuela — the de facto owner of CITGO Petroleum and its parent company, PDV Holding (PDVH) — defaulted on its bonds. (In 2019, control of CITGO was transferred away from the ruling Maduro regime in Venezuela to the opposition “shadow” government, then led by Juan Guaidó.) In May 2021, U.S. District Court Judge Leonard P. Stark appointed Robert B. Pincus as a special master tasked with devising a plan to sell PDVH/CITGO. After a two-round bidding process that concluded in June 2024, Pincus recommended on September 27, 2024, that the district court approve Amber Energy and its $7.3 billion bid for CITGO and its three refineries (Lake Charles, LA; Lemont, IL; and Corpus Christi, TX). However, instead of ending the drama, the court restarted the bidding from scratch in December 2024, citing issues with the auction process.

CITGO’s Refineries, Lubricant Plants, Terminals and Pipelines

Figure 1. CITGO’s Refineries, Lubricant Plants, Terminals and Pipelines. Source: CITGO

The winner of the auction will get three impressive U.S. refineries (dark-blue refinery icons in Figure 1 above) in addition to a number of lubricant plants, terminals and pipelines. While we predict there will be refineries shutting their doors in the coming years, we expect all three of the CITGO refineries to be survivors over the next two decades. We also see them benefiting from a variety of market factors we expect to develop, including a modest widening heavy/light crude differential from the record tightness seen so far this year, strong middle distillate margins, and continuing demand for U.S. products in key export markets.

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For Those Who Say Tariffs Won’t MAGA — July 16, 2025

Locator: 48744MAGA.

Link here.

British aerospace and defense company Rolls-Royce announced it is investing $75 million to expand its engine manufacturing facility in Aiken, South Carolina. 

 The investment will boost output of mtu Series 4000 diesel engines, which are used in backup power systems for data centers and other critical infrastructures. 

The company said the expansion will create 60 new jobs, increase capabilities and strengthen Rolls-Royce’s U.S. industrial presence. 

 The move also reflects Rolls-Royce’s shift into energy and power systems, beyond its traditional aerospace focus. 

 Rolls-Royce said it will machine additional mtu Series 4000 components in the U.S. as part of the investment. 

The company currently produces many of the components in Germany and sends them to the U.S. as finished goods.
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GM -- Update -- Mid-Year 2025

Locator: 48743GM.

GM: will invest $4 billion in US manufacturing plants. This is huge. The emphasis will be on high-margin, large, gasoline-guzzling SUVs and pick-up trucks. Interestingly, no mention of hybrids which would greatly improve fuel mileage.

Announced June 10, 2025:

Plants in Michigan, Kansas, and Tennessee will expand finished vehicle production of several of GM’s most popular vehicles:

  • Orion Assembly, Orion Township, Michigan: GM will begin production of gasoline-powered full-size SUVs and light duty pickup trucks at Orion in early 2027 to help meet continued strong demand. As a result, GM’s Factory ZERO in Detroit-Hamtramck, Michigan will be the dedicated assembly location for the Chevrolet Silverado EV, GMC Sierra EV, Cadillac ESCALADE IQ, and GMC HUMMER EV pickup and SUV.
  • Fairfax Assembly, Kansas City, Kansas: Fairfax Assembly will support production of the gasoline-powered Chevrolet Equinox beginning in mid-2027. Sales of the recently redesigned Equinox were up more than 30% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025. Fairfax remains on track to begin building the 2027 Chevrolet Bolt EV by the end of this year. GM expects to make new future investments in Fairfax for GM’s next generation of affordable EVs.
  • Spring Hill Manufacturing, Spring Hill, Tennessee: GM will add production of the gasoline-powered Chevrolet Blazer at Spring Hill starting in 2027, alongside the Cadillac LYRIQ and VISTIQ EVs, and the Cadillac XT5.

July 15, 2025: update from GM via Reuters, just part of the entire press release:

General Motors said on Tuesday it will move production of the Cadillac Escalade to a Michigan assembly plant, while adding new capacity for gasoline-powered Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra light-duty pickups at the same facility.

The Escalade is currently produced in Arlington, Texas, alongside other large SUVs such as the GMC Yukon, Chevrolet Suburban and Chevy Tahoe. Production at Arlington is expected to remain consistent after the Escalade moves to Michigan.

The automaker will be adding production of the Silverado and Sierra trucks at its Orion Township, Michigan factory, in addition to existing production in Fort Wayne, Indiana. The gasoline-powered trucks and SUVs are among GM's biggest money makers.

GM told Reuters the moves would "help meet continued strong customer demand."

GM said it will begin manufacturing the SUVs and light-duty pickup trucks at its Orion Assembly plant in early 2027. Orion Assembly was previously slated to build electric trucks starting next year.

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