Monday, May 30, 2016

QEP Reorts A Number Of Nice Wells; Other Operators With Three More DUCs -- May 30, 2016

Tuesday, May 31, 2016
  • None. November was six months ago and there is no "31st" day in November.
Monday, May 30, 2016
  • 30709, 991, QEP, State 8-25-24BH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum 14K 3/16; only 23 days in 3/16;
  • 30710, 139, QEP, State 4-25-24T2H, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum --
  • 30711, 670, QEP, Stte 9-25-24BH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum --
  • 30712, 817, QEP, State 5-25-24TH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum --
  • 30904, 2,024, QEP, State 5-36-1TH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t2/16; cum 32K 3/16;
  • 30905, 2,385, QEP, State 9-36-1BH, Spotted Horn, 4 sections, t3/16; cum 27K in 31 days;
  • 32202, SI/NC, SM Energy, Antelope 2B-28HS, Ambrose, no production data,
Sunday, May 29, 2016
  • 31080, 2,088, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-9H, McGregory Buttes, t12/15; cum 63K 4/16;
  • 32223, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Uran A-LE-154-93-2215H-1, Robinson Lake, no production data,
  • 32289, SI/NC, Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 1H-R, Banks, no production data,
Saturday, May 28, 2016


30904, see above, QEP, State 5-36-1TH, Spotted Horn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

30905, see below, QEP, State 9-36-1BH, Spotted Horn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

31080, see below, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-9H, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Halibut Steak and Asparagus

New recipe for asparagus.

  • Asparagus, diced onions, olive oil: in oven, 425 degrees, 10 minutes
  • While baking asparagus in oven, reduce balsamic vinegar and salt on stove top
  • When asparagus comes out of oven, drizzle reduced balsamic vinegar/salt over asparagus
  • marinade for several hours
  • really, really hot skillet
  • burner down to medium just before placing halibut in skillet
  • two minutes on each side, and that's it -- two minutes on a side --halibut about an inch thick 
  • leave halibut in warm skillet (take skillet off burner) until everything else complete (martini, broccoli, asparagus on plate)
I never buy halibut unless it's on sale; otherwise way too expensive.

Endless Summer

Pipeline, The Ventures

Update On Number Of Wells In North Dakota -- May 30, 2016

From last week's oil conference in Bismarck, a reader sent a photo of a slide updating wells in the Bakken.
Total wells (active, inactive, permitted, increased density approved): 30,974
  • Active: 13,024
    • Bakken/Three Forks: 10,970
    • conventional: 2,054
  • Inactive: 1,523
    • +$40 for 90 days
    • as of 4/11/16: 45 days to go
  • Waiting to be completed: 920
    • +$50 for 90 days
    • NYMEX November, 2016
  • Permitted: 1,988
    • +$60 for 90 days
    • NYMEX $58 max
  • Increased density approved: 13,519
Estimated ultimate number of wells: 55,000 - 65,000.

60,000 - 15,000 = 45,000 wells to be drilled/completed

At 1,500 wells/year = 30 years of drilling.

In 1Q16, 281 wells were reported. 281 x 4 = about 1,200 wells for the year. For 2Q16, it looks about the same. 45,000/1,200 = almost 40 years. It looks like the Saudis helped North Dakota stretch out the manufacturing stage for the Bakken. In the short term that caused incalculable harm to some operators, to many roughnecks, and to the financial coffers of the state, but in the long run, one wonders if this was not good for the state and particularly the cities in western North Dakota. I don't know. Just rambling.

Maybe that would be a great poll. Was the Saudi Surge good, bad, indifferent for the state of North Dakota?

When I first started blogging, some folks thought I was nuts to suggest that drilling would continue through 2030. Now it is 2016 and adding 40 years to 2016, one gets us out to 2056. And, of course, the last well drilled will continue to produce for another 30 years. That gets us out to about where the original estimates for the Bakken were: 2100. A nice round number.

Sea Levels Actually Decreasing On The East Coast

Watts Up With That is reporting:
Since December 2009, the sea levels have declined in both Washington DC and The Battery NY.
In Washington, DC, the decline has been -3.3 mm/year; and, in The Battery, NY, the decline has been more than three times greater, at a rate of -10.7 mm/year.
Well, that's good news. Ten millimeters/year = one centimeter/year. The length of an average popsicle stick is 4.5 inches or 11.43 centimeters. I place my popsicle sticks 2.5  inches into the sand, leaving 2.0 inches showing. At this rate, my popsicle sticks will last longer than expected. I thought by now I would have to invest in longer sticks. 

Perhaps not.


It was after this issue came out that I never subscribed to National Geographic again. "Journalism" at its worse.

UPS Delivers Amazon On Memorial Day -- What A Great Country -- May 30, 2016; 101 Days Of Summer Begin

Wow, what a great county. While completing the previous post on this overcast Memorial Day in north Texas -- we had a huge thunderstorm overnight -- second night in a row -- spring seems to be lasting a lot longer than usual -- I was finally able to get into the apartment complex swimming pool yesterday but it will probably be too cool to get in today --- what was I saying? Oh, yes, what a great country. While posting the previous note on the Bakken, UPS delivered the DVD I ordered from Amazon awhile ago: The Endless Summer: A Film By Bruce Brown, according to the "jacket," a "brilliant, a perfect movie, a great movie." -- The New Yorker. We'll see. From the back:
They call it The Endless Summer, the ultimate surfing adventure, crossing the globe in search of the perfect wave. From the uncharted waters of West Africa, to the shark-filled seas of Australia.....two California surfers, Robert August and Mike Hynson, accomplish in a few months what most people never do in a lifetime --- they live their dream.
When it first played in theaters, audiences lined up to see it again and again, spellbound by its thrilling excitement and awesome photography.
But in fact, what's most compelling about the film is the sport of surfing itself, and once you've ween it, you'll never forget why.
So, we'll see. Later.

Much, Much More Important

Over the past two days I have received notes from close family friends that their loved ones have returned safely from Iraq or Afghanistan after completing their commitments there. In one case, an Air Force officer -- about 32 years old, I assume -- had completed a full year in Afghanistan or somewhere in that region. A full year. It's hard to comprehend.

One-year tours in a combat zone take us all the way back to the Vietnam era.

When I first entered active duty, back in the mid-70s, temporary duty assignments (TDY) for officers were usually training missions and usually lasted two weeks. With the Gulf wars, the Mideast commitments for Army boots-on-the-ground broke the six-month limit and extended for a full year. The USAF held off as long as possible, but to maintain "peace in the Pentagon" the USAF finally relented and agreed to matching one year combat assignments for its personnel, officers, enlisted, men, women.

It was with great relief to hear that that a close friend's son, after a year in a combat location, had returned safely.

A Note To The Granddaughters

Sophia visited the aquarium yesterday. 

So, How Is TSA Doing Today? Not So Well, Thank You

The Washington Post is reporting:
The threatened summer of discontent for American travelers got underway Memorial Day weekend as the understaffed Transportation Security Administration struggled to keep its security lines moving in the nation’s airports.
The backups happened at most big airports and some smaller ones, particularly at the choice hours when passengers prefer to fly, and they seemed to occur most often when a particular flight was drawing hundreds of passengers to a single checkpoint.
At Chicago’s O’Hare International that was Terminal 3, surprisingly, at 7 a.m. Sunday. At Boston’s Logan International the crush at B1 came at 4:40 p.m. Saturday. The checkpoint at 4B in New York’s John F. Kennedy International was moving with painful slowness at 12:30 p.m. Sunday. Crunch time came at Atlanta’s north checkpoint at 3:15 p.m. Sunday.

A Reader's Note From The Field Regarding The Bakken -- May 30, 2016

From a reader who follows the Bridger wells and the Dvirnak wells (and I assume other wells in the area) pretty closely sent some notes and comments. There are two Dvirnak pads: one is completed and producing (two wells) and the other pad has three Dvirnak wells on DRL status.

The reader writes, the most recent Dvirnak pad had gone from TA (temporary abandon) status on January 27, 2016; followed by a notice on February 19 to reclaim the pit; and, then, a new pit request on May 13; and is now back to drilling as of May 25, 2016.

To some, it may seem like a lot of unnecessary activity.

The reader wonders whether all this activity was related to NDIC rules requiring drilling to commence within a reasonable period after first spud, or whether the changes were due to economics and/or other reasons.
  • 30139, drl, CLR, Dvirnak 4-7H2, a Three Forks second bench well, permit dated 12/4/2014. 
A sundry form received February 10, 2016, has the [boiler plate] request that I see frequently when I visit EOG file reports: "[The named operator] respectfully requests permission to temporarily abandon [the named] well. [The named operator] plans to complete the well once commodity prices improve." This is done after the spud, and after casing was set and cemented and then tested for any leakage.

And as the reader noted, the reserve pit was reclaimed and re-seeded.

This particular well was originally spud 10/30/2015. Now, in May, 2016, they have brought the "big" rig into drill this well, and I assume the others as well. 

A sundry form received May 18, 2016, suggests that drilling was ready to resume on this 6-well pad. Once drilled to depth, the operator has two years to complete the well, during which time the well is referred to as a DUC (drilled, uncompleted).

The reader noted the incurred costs that must be associated with reclaiming a pit, only to repeat the process a few months later. There would be many story lines here, many opinions, many thoughts, but it is what it is (at least for now) and the benefits of requiring this "digging a ditch only to refill it" mentality probably outweighs the alternative. Just my two cents worth.


On another note, the reader writes:
In the next unit to the west [of the Dvirn pads noted above] the Weydahl 4-36H1 has been on production with new enhanced completion technology? With just over 10 months production I would think CLR is happy with that result? 
From the NDIC:
  • 29555, 1,497, CLR, State Weydahl 4-36H1, Corral Creek, Three Forks, 17 total drilling days, gas exceeded 4,000 units, 29 swell packers, sundry form says IP was 2,238, 30 stimulation stages, 5.8 million lbs, t7/15 (sundry form says 6/15), cum 186K 4/16; (note: the file report also copy of frack data for #29955, which was probably placed here by mistake).
Production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


The reader also noted:
In most recent CLR quarterly earnings conference call Oklahoma activities were the main topics, they didn’t say much about the Bakken. But I did hear the comment that enhanced well completions in the Bakken were turning out better than expected. Proppant for Weydahl works out to about 615# per foot of perforations. When they talk about Scoop completions they talk about proppant in pounds per foot. Like now they are using 2,500# per foot in the Scoop. Four times as much as the  North Dakota Bakken Weydahl frac job. 
That was my impression, also: not much said about the Bakken. A summary was posted here. That's a nice 30-second fracking data point: 650 pounds per foot in the Bakken vs 2,500 pounds per foot in Oklahoma.

The reader also noted:
Another comment I have heard about SCOOP is that infrastructure and take away capacity is a non-issue. There are several refineries in the state, much gas collection/processing due to a mature environment from previous activity, and they have Cushing. In the SCOOP operators can go balls to the walls in terms of production and not have to worry about over whelming infrastructure. 
In the current pricing environment, I doubt there are takeaway constraints in the Bakken, but if oil ever gets back to $100+, all bets are off. 

Back to the Weydahl and the Bridger wells in the Bakken with regard to natural gas production:
Weydahl went on line in June I believe, a few months later the Bridger 4,5,&6 which is a few miles SW went on line (using CLR enhanced completion technology?). There was a big surge of new gas in the pipeline system in that immediate area at that time. If you look a couple miles to the west at the Whitman 2-34H which is still flowing and has produced 1.44 million barrels to date, during September the amount of gas flared was almost ½ the gas produced. So there was a big spike in gas flared for a few months from Whitman at that time.

Which leads me to this rambling point. Even just a few years ago when companies like OneOK were trying to figure out where to put gas collection lines, size them, build/size booster stations, and build/size processing plants to handle gas production they ended up under sizing based on where potential production rates are today
If you look at each generation of production output in areas that have been producing for 10 years, each new pad and updated completion technology far surpasses the previous generation it appears to me.
The early productivity of the new Bridger wells are blowing away the first and second generation wells of the same time frame. Another interesting point about the last generation of Bridger wells is that the early leader in production was the H1 well but since then the MB and H2 production have passed it.
Wow, there is so much incredible information in those last three paragraphs. I was aware of some of the story lines, but not all. It would behoove readers to read closely those last three paragraphs to get a good feeling for the Bakken.

Some notes for newbies:
  • this takes me back to the very beginning; I think folks often forget how incredible the Bakken is
  • the Bakken is considered an oil field; 94%+ of hydrocarbon produced is oil, but the amount of natural gas produced is not trivial
  • the technology keeps getting better and better; the completion processes keep improving
  • technology and skill of the roughnecks and geologists: drilling times dropped from 60+ days to 10 days or less
  • completion techniques (fracking) keep improving
  • although the middle Bakken will probably be bigger than the Three Forks when all is said and done, there are some who suggest Three Forks wells may actually be better than middle Bakken wells
  • there are indications that the second bench and the third bench of the Three Forks will turn out to be quite nice
  • the halo effect may or may not be in play in some situations
  • "we're" gonna need more natural gas processing plants
  • the Bakken may be landlocked (keystoned, and CBR-restricted) but at the present, but it is incredibly compact: the entire ND Bakken takes up less than a third of the state (surface area); for the most part it is concentrated in four counties; and, even in those four counties, has a small number of sweet spots, conveniently located around Watford City, Williston, and Tioga. 
A huge "thank you" to the reader for sending such a long note from the field. Much appreciated. 

The Legacy: Banner Year For Gun Sales; Banner Year For Flag Sales -- May 30, 2016

From USA Today:
Eder Flag Manufacturing Co. in Oak Creek says it’s having a banner year. Sales are up 15% from a year ago, partly from 2016 being a national election year and political events needing flags.
From FreeBeacon:
The FBI processed a record number of firearms-related background checks last year, indicating that more guns were sold in 2015 than in any previous year in American history. 
From The Wall Street Journal:
U.S. car sales in 2015 jumped to a record, clearing a peak last reached 15 years ago as cheap gasoline, employment gains and low interest rates spurred Americans to snap up new vehicles.
From Fortune, another banner year for hot dogs:
Los Angeles residents consume more hot dogs than any other U.S. city, the NHDSC claims, and ballparks sell over 20 million hot dogs throughout their season. Because baseball fans love hot dogs so much, the top ten hot dog consuming cities all host a Major League Baseball team.
From National Geographic, record bottled water being sold:
It seems that Americans love their bottled water. According to data recently released by Beverage Marketing Inc., the amount of bottled water sold rose 7.9 percent in 2015. That’s on top of a 7 percent increase in 2014.
Later, when I get back from the grocery store where I now need to go to get a newspaper for May, we will post the most important sales statistics for the US. Some readers have probably already guessed what that category is. 

And We're Back

The final category: beer.
On the way to finding those statistics, we found these statistics: