Thursday, April 15, 2021

Notes And Comment -- Late Night Edition -- Dividends -- April 15, 2021

OKE: According to MarketBeat today, OKE declared its next quarterly dividend, no change from previous declaration: 93.50 cents, record date, 4/26/21; pay date, 5/14/21. This would be the sixth consecutive quarter without a change in the dividend

  • 4 x 93.5 = $3.74 / 52.39 = 7.14%.
  • Back in September, 2020, OKE traded for $25. $3.74 / $25 = 15%. 

Speaking of Dividends

BP: some months ago, BP cut its dividend in half. To the best of my knowledge, BP did not have a 2 -1 split.

So, let's do a little gedanken experiment.

First, BP. You are a member of the board. You need to vote / opine on the next quarterly dividend. You recommend cutting it in half. At the time you made the recommendation, the annual rate would equate to 5%. You recommend keeping the dividend the same.

Now, OKE. You are a member of the board. You need to vote / opine on the next quarterly dividend. You recommend keeping it the same. At the time you make this recommendation, the annual rate would equate to 15%. One would think that would be a hard recommendation to defend. 

Something to think about.

Pivot To Renewable Energy

For newbies, a reminder: BP is pivoting to renewable energy, a low margin enterprise. 

See this note

TOT: second consecutive quarter that Total cut its dividend. Total is also pivoting to renewable energy, a low margin business.  

Flathead Lake, MT

More On That Saudi Arabia -- India Kerfuffle -- April 15, 2021

Link to Irina Slav. I linked this story earlier; said I might post it as a stand-alone. What caused the Saudi-India oil rift?

Saudi raised its prices for oil shipped to India.

In response to the Saudi price hike, New Delhi told its refiners to reduce their orders for Saudi oil for May, which they promptly did. Indian refiners will now buy 36 percent less Saudi crude next month than earlier planned. That would amount to some 9.5 million barrels in total for four big state-owned refiners: Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals. 
This compares with 10.8 million barrels planned to be purchased before the price hike, but it also compares with an average monthly import rate of 14.8 million barrels from Saudi Arabia for the four refiners. 
The ball seems to have landed in the Saudi court.

Something tells me this story has legs. I'm sure we'll be hearing about it again. 

Daily imports:

  • 9 million bbls / 30 days = 300,000 bopd.
  • 12 million bbls / 30 days = 400,000 bopd.

Video Worth 10,000 Words

I assume this link will break eventually. The link:

The video is of an extraordinary shot in an NBA game the other night.

The shot was interesting but the point of the post is to point out a couple of things.

First, this is an NBA game. Note how full the stands are. I believe there are more folks on the court than in the stands. Can you imagine how much money these venues are losing? And the television audience? Except for hardcore NBA fans, I can't imagine many folks actually watching these games on television. 

Second, check out the "masks" and social distancing. LOL.

The Emperor Has No Clothes -- I'm Glad Someone Is Writing What We're All Thinking -- April 15, 2021

For the archives. Link here to Julianne Geiger

Pop quiz, quick:

  • when was Tesla, the company, founded?
  • when did Elon Musk take over as CEO?
  • solve for x: 2019 - 2003 = x
  • EVs make up what percent of all retail autos?
  • what percent of early adopters / EV owners would "definitely consider" purchasing another EV in the future?
  • what is the current biggest issue regarding EVs?

This is an open-book quiz. See linked article for answers. 

And finally, what's in your garage?

Answer To The Sixth Question In The Pop Quiz Above

Link to Tsvetan Paraskova, for the archives. 

High battery metal prices could derail the EV revolution.

EVs are already ridiculously expensive -- upfront costs -- and metal prices are going to drive that cost up significantly more.

Hot Sauce

In response to my note about Tabasco sauce, a reader sent me this link:

I can't even imagine. 

Wow, I love this blog. I wake up every morning and am always surprised what I find on the blog. LOL.

Was The Flood Of Big Oil Cash Delayed To 2022? April 15, 2021

The pandemic -- the lockdowns -- interrupted a lot of things. The pandemic -- the lockdowns -- put a lot of things on hold. 

This is a flashback to the a post dated October 9, 2019, about six months before the lockdowns began. 

From that post:

Shareholders of global oil giants will be “drowned” in cash from dividends and buybacks for the next 20 years as the firms shift their capital structure to finance renewable projects, according to Rystad Energy.
Majors such as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. have traditionally had to hoard cash as they looked to their own balance sheets to fund billion-dollar megaprojects, founder Jarand Rystad said at his firm’s annual summit in Singapore.
That will change as they gravitate to wind and solar projects, which tap debt markets backed by project financing for as much as 95% of their cost, he said.
The shift will create huge amounts of surplus cash that majors can return to investors as they increasingly tap pension funds and other lenders for lower-risk renewable projects, said Rystad. It underscores the massive changes oil and gas giants will need to undertake as they transition to wind and solar projects, the fastest-growing sources of energy.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

YOLO. FOMO. Short Squeeze. Earnings. Jobless Claims. And All That Jazz -- April 15, 2021

US markets: Dow and S&P 500 close at all-time records.

Quick look:

  • WTI: up slightly; closes above $63;
  • pipelines:
    • OKE: up 1.7%; up 88 cents; closed at $52.39; hit an-time intra-day high of $52.53;
    • WMB: up 0.8%; up 19 cents; closed at $23.84; close to an all-time high;
    • ENB: up 0.6%; up 22 cents; closed at $37.31; closed at a 52-week high;
    • EPD: down 0.785; down 18 cents; closed at $22.96; still close to an all-time high;
  • others:
    • BRK-B: up 0.6%; up $1.61; closed at $269.14; hit an intra-day 52-week high of $269.28;
    • AAPL: up 1.9%; up $2.47; closed at $134.50; well below its 52-week high of $145;
    • WMT: up 0.6%; up 84 cents; closed at $140.16; well below its 52-week high;

Retail sales: surged. Link here. Some people think it could have been much higher -- suggesting ... well, suggesting something ...

Retail sales—a measure of purchases at stores, at restaurants and online—jumped 9.8% in March, 2021. 
The gain in consumer spending—the biggest driver of economic activity—came as the government began distributing hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus funds to households. 
It was the largest monthly gain since last May, 2020, during the initial recovery from lockdowns early in the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ten-year bond: 1.574% -- down 0.062. 

Branson, MO: "all clear" as of April 16, 2021.  

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1735646151

No new permits.

Nine permits renewed:

  • BR (5): five Mazama permits all in McKenzie County;
  • Enerplus (4): four permits, all in Dunn County: Gnu, Addax, Camel, and Genet;

The 1920s Roared After A Pandemic, And The 2020s Will Try -- Bloomberg -- April 15, 2021


Early in the article

In all probability, though, the U.S. will continue to wrestle with "secular stagnation," an economic plague of developed nations. Preconditions include an aging population, slow labor force growth, and weak demand for credit, which is why the disease is resistant to traditional monetary remedies. The latest evidence that investors aren’t holding out much hope the coming decade will break out of that mold: The yield on inflation-protected 10-year Treasury notes is around negative 1%, down from 4% during the ’90s tech boom.

Despite the differences, by copying what was done right in the Roaring Twenties and avoiding what went wrong, Americans can make the 2020s a success—by today’s standards, anyway.

The world of 2021 is “a muddled mix of the Twenties in a lot of ways,” says Rutgers University economist Eugene White. Stock prices are high in relation to corporate profits, as then. Today’s suspicion of international institutions such as the United Nations and World Health Organization would be familiar to a traveler from the 1920s. Race relations are once again straing, though Black Americans are in a far better position than they were a century ago. Tariffs rose under President Donald Trump, as they did in the 1920s. Americans continue to complain about overbearing government, as they did during Prohibition. The 1920s was the first decade in which the rural population was smaller than the urban one; in the 2020s, rural White America is feeling disenfranchised after having gone strong for Trump’s failed reelection.

My thesis: I don't see any comparison between the 1920's and the 2020's. I see 2021 - 2026 very similar to 1949 - 1965.

Link here.  

Private Equity For Shale Operators Drying Up -- Operators Dying On The Vine -- April 15, 2021


A reader responds:

A reader responded to the original post below. The following was edited slightly for formatting. If there are typographical and/or content errors, they are mine, not the readers, which occurred during my editing:

I had finished poring over the just-released Pennsylvania production numbers for February (most recent) before turning to your blog.

To "cut to the chase," several smaller "No-Name" companies - all privately owned - continue to post exceptionally strong numbers  from their smallish land holdings. [Connect this line to the concluding statement by the reader.]

My "in-a-nutshell" appraisal ...
Yes, many moneyed people/institutions are about at the end of their rope looking at these monthly figures while simultaneously seeing no financial returns coming their way. 
Yes, it would not surprise me that many private companies have been drilling/producing at a fast pace these past 2 years in order to show the Big Boys just how good their potential is.
However ... for those of us looking at the Bigger Picture, this might be what to expect in the coming years:
  • higher pricing for raw hydrocarbons. ~$70 WTI and ~$3/$3.25 Henry Hub (HH) might be a reasonable assumption.
    • this assumption is completely meaningless in the Real World as both you and I know things change with blinding speed.
    • (the mere fact that ongoing attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a not-so-low-grade war taking place in the Middle have clearly shown no impact on global pricing is SO far removed from our historical experience as to make future prognostications groundless).
  • abundant hydrocarbon resources available for decades to come with remaining US producers doing very well.
  • fringier areas in the current basins will be developed by tenacious, risk taking Little Guys as the hardware, technology, and proven processes will be employed to 'wring out' every viable barrel, every cubic foot of hydrocarbons
  • if/when prices spike upwards (even temporarily) - say, in the ~$90/$100 bbld range - new plays will be exploited.
    • these include - but are not limited to - the Powder River Basin, the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, the Uinta, the Rogersville, and more
    • artificial lift and re-frac'ing technologies will continue to improve so as to upend the standard, current production profiles of many of today's  wells
  • no one talks about EOR anymore, but there are over a half dozen projects taking place right now with publicised results expected in the next year or two.
  • a much higher recovery factor is practically guaranteed, but no operator wants to tout that even MORE oil will be coming to market.
I could go on, but I will stop right there with one recent comparison ... the frenzied boom related to the Dot Bomb phenomenon 20 years ago.
Bill Gates said, (2004/5 timeframe, IIRC), that, yes, an over-exuberant atmosphere drew in hundreds of billions of dollars that did not offer a positive financial return.
However, Gates continued, a new, paradigm-shattering framework was put into place whereby this new fangled Internet thingy would exert a profound influence across the globe.

This is what Harold, Mark Papa, Aubrey McClendon, et al have bequeathed to the world.
Wow, that's a great note. 

Original Post

Link here to Financial Times, archived. The article begins:

A vital source of funding for the US oil sector is drying up as private investors retreat, prompting stricken operators to make “last gasp” efforts to boost production and cash flow to lure in buyers. 
The exodus mirrors shale’s experience in public markets, where even before last year’s crash investors had soured on an industry notorious for poor returns and weak environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance. 
“Private equity has been decimated in this downturn,” said Wil VanLoh, head of Quantum Energy Partners, one of the largest PE investors in the shale patch. “The total quantum of money available out there to private companies has shrunk and is going to stay much, much smaller.”

Dying on the vine:

This is very interesting. A reader weighed in earlier with the same factoid that The Financial Times cited: US oil production has stagnated at 11 million bopd

The Financial Times article seems to suggest that it's a lack of (private equity) capital is preventing a lot of these smaller E&P companies from re-activating rigs and starting to drill again. 

Playing devil's advocate: maybe that's a good thing

Some would argue that the last thing we need right now is more production from companies burning through cash provided by outside sources (private equity). Some would argue that the free market system is working just fine. There are any number of articles suggesting that US shale could kill the resurgence in the price of oil. Maybe we need to have a bunch of drillers stop drilling (and, oh by the way, many of them already have).

A lot of the article is focused on the Pioneer Energy acquisition of DoublePoint Energy. Interestingly, the earlier acquisition (of Parsley) by Pioneer Energy is seldom mentioned. 

In addition, the article seems to be focused on activity in the Permian, although Bruin was mentioned. From the article:

The list of juicy private operators includes CrownQuest, Endeavour Resources, Mewbourne Oil and a few other smaller operators, which each own large Permian positions that have been poured over by public suitors. 
But the tail of weak assets across the shale patch is long — and was exposed by last year’s price crash. Private money is behind as many as 500 producers in the US, accounting for about a third of total American oil output in recent years
The bulk are now lossmaking and will never repay the cash ploughed into them, said Waterous. “We think about 80 per cent of them are illiquid,” he said. “There is no bid. So 400 of the 500 are unsaleable.” 
Recent transactions included sales by Bruin E&P, a PE-backed company that went bankrupt in July, and Grenadier Energy Partners II, backed by EnCap and Kayne Anderson, two big private oil industry investors.  

The most interesting company to follow will be Pioneer. From my perspective, they really, really overpaid for DoublePoint Energy.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Director's Cut -- Data For February, 2021

Director's Cut: posted, link here. The Director's Cuts are tracked here.

The usual disclaimer applies: in a long note like this, done quickly, there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.  

February, 2021, data. This is all preliminary data for January, 2021. When the final number is tallied (next month), it will reveal a slight increase in production month-over-month):

Crude price (ND light sweet):

  • today: $56.75
  • March, 2021: $54.38
  • February, 2021: $49.13
  • January, 2021: $41.77
  • December, 2020: $37.70
  • November, 2020: 33.22
Crude oil production:
  • February, 2021: 1,083,020 bopd (prliminary)
  • January, 2021: 1,147,374 (preliminary); 1,147,377 (final)
  • December: 1,192,145 (preliminary); 1,191,429 bopd (final)
  • November: 1,224,540 (preliminary); 1,227,138 bopd (final)
  • October: 1,222,871 bopd (preliminary); 1,231,048 bopd (final)
  • delta:  -64,357 bopd (this is interesting
  • delta:  -5.6%
Natural gas production:
  • February, 2021: 2,703,948 MCF (preliminary)
  • January, 2021: 2,847,719 MCF (preliminary); 2,849,283 MCF / day (final)
  • December: 2,892,908 (preliminary); 2,888,626 MCF / day (final)
  • November: 2,887,402 (preliminary); 2,890,376 MCF/day (final)
  • October: 2,873,654 MCF/day (preliminary); 2,881,717 (final)
  • delta: -145,335 MCF / day (-24,218 boepd)
  • delta: -5.1%
Natural gas capture:
  • February, 2021: 92%
  • January, 2021: 94%
  • December, 94%
  • November, 93%
  • October, 93%

Rig count:

  • today: 17 (no SWD or CS rigs)
  • March, 2021: 15
  • February, 2021: 15 (but may include CS and SWD)
  • January: 12 (but may include CS and SWD)
  • December: 14 (but may include CS and SWD)
  • October: 14 (ditto)
  • March
    • permitted: 55
    • completed: 43 (preliminary)
  • February:
    • permitted: 72
    • completed: 32 (revised)
    • inactive: 2,568
    • DUCs: 662
    • total off line for operational reasons: 3,230
    • producing: 15,773 (preliminary)
  • January:
    • permitted: 66
    • completed: 59 (revised)
    • inactive: 2,597
    • DUCs: 661
    • total off line for operational reasons: 3,258
    • producing: 15,861 (revised)
  • December:
    • permitted: 66
    • completed: 44 (final)
    • inactive: 2,687
    • DUCs: 668
    • total off line for operational reasons: 3,355
    • producing: 15,798 (preliminary)
  • November: 
    • permitted: 52
    • completed: 44 (preliminary
    • inactive: 2,870
    • DUCs: 710
    • total off line for operational reasons: 3,580 
    • producing: 15,601 (preliminary)
  • October:
    • permitted: 74
    • completed: 59 (preliminary); 74 (revised)
    • inactive: 2,934
    • DUCs: 724
    • total off line for operational reasons: 3,658
    • producing: 15,512 (preliminary); 15,524 (final)

Inactive Wells and DUCs
Tracked Here

Wells, permitted:

  • March, 2021:55
  • February, 2021: 72
  • January, 2021: 66
  • December: 66
  • November: 52
  • October: 74
  • September: 51

Wells, completed:

  • March: 43 (preliminary)
  • February: 32 (revised))
  • January, 2021: 59 (revised)
  • December: 44 (final)
  • November: 44 (preliminary); 74 (final)
  • October: 59 (preliminary); 74 (revised)
  • September: 76 (revised); 54 (final)
  • August: 66 (final)

Wells, inactive:

  • February, 2021: 2,568
  • January, 2021: 2,597 (final)
  • December: 2,687
  • November: 2,870
  • October: 2,934
  • September: 3,749

Wells, waiting on completion (DUCs):

  • February, 2021: 662
  • January, 2021: 661
  • December: 668
  • November: 710
  • October: 724
  • September: 793

Wells, producing

  • February, 2021: 15,773 (preliminary)
  • January, 2021: 15,798 (preliminary); 15,861 revised)
  • December: 15,798 (preliminary); 15,800 (final)
  • November: 15,601 (preliminary); 15,620 (revised)
  • October: 15,512 (preliminary); 15,524 (revised)
  • September: 15,389
Fracking: the number of well completions has been very volatile since March (2020) as the number of active completion crews decreased from 25 to 1; then increased to two in February and to 8 today.

Notes And Comment -- Later-Morning Edition -- April 15, 2021

Dow, new record: Dow goes over 34,000 for first time ever. Happened only one month after it hit 33,000. 

Jobs report: first time jobless claims way below forecast; not only did the number drop below 700,000, first-time claims dropped below 600,000. At 574,000 this is a "pandemic-low." Link here

S&P: solidly above 4,000.

NASDAQ: fluctuate around 14,000.

Banks show the "Reddit" crowd how to do it, Bloomberg:

  • SPACs and meme stocks feed windfalls for big Wall Street banks
  • Goldman traders beat highest analyst estimates by $2 billion

All In The Eye Of The Beholder

After yesterday's EIA weekly petroleum report was released, a reader wrote:

Looking at EIA reports for several weeks. Domestic production stagnant at 11mm bbls/day. Report yesterday shows inventory of crude and product drop of 9 mm bbl and imports for the week 4.5 mm bbl. Imports of crude and product now 2 mm bbl/day. 

My not-ready-prime-time reply:

I'm looking at the EIA report released yesterday:

  • US crude oil imports averaged 5.9 million bpd, down by 411,000 bpd from the previous week;
  • Total motor gasoline imports last week averaged 830,000 bpd and distillate fuel imports averaged 261,000 bpd. [No previous data provided.]

I would hardly call US production of 11 million bpd stagnant at this point. What's the max the US has ever produced? "Stagnant" = unchanging, but in this context that word has a "negative" connotation for me. US crude oil production has been unchanged for quite some time, but it's hardly an interesting metric.

Link here:

See graphic at that link. Amazing. Eleven million is certainly not a bad number.

US production:

  • in 2017: a new record at 9.4 million bopd
  • in 2018: a new record at 10.964 million bopd
  • in 2019: a huge new record of 12.248 million bopd
  • in 2020: back to 11.315 million bopd
  • current EIA estimated: 11.00 million bopd

If you want to see oil drop precipitously in price, let US production jump to 13 million bopd and see what Saudi Arabia does in response.

The delta between 11 million bopd and 12 million bopd could be made up in weeks if necessary.

I'm not focused on production at this point. To a great extent, it's meaningless for me as a metric to follow. 

The "re-balancing" numbers prove that -- crude oil in storage essentially unchanged for years. I'm focused on demand; refinery operating capacity, and most importantly, not the change month over month (the velocity, not speed) but rather the rate of change month over month (acceleration).

By the way, crude oil in storage is less important to me than the number of days of crude oil in storage: the best number for me is about 21 days and under. 

Crude oil days in storage: currently we remain at record high levels; recently over 40 days in storage and currently (most recent data): 33 days, down from 36 days two weeks ago, and down from 40 weeks about a month ago. 

Days in storage at this link:

Yesterday's report is perhaps the most bullish report I've seen in the past twelve months -- it speaks volumes about the US re-opening. 

I'll add this:

As a consumer, not an investor, and not as an American, I don't care where oil is produced or where it comes from. I'm only interested in a reasonable price and no interruption in supplies.

Notes And Comment -- Mid-Morning Edition -- April 15, 2021

Without question, this was the most interesting tweet so far today, and the replies to that tweet. 

First, the initial tweet and the thread: WoodMac implies EVs will kill oil demand. EVs will send oil to $10/bbl.

Then the reply: "Even assuming the 70% figure is true, surely Wood Mac understands that this is not how oil markets work, right? The marginal cost of production, even of just 70 million bbs per day of oil in 30 years, will undoubtedly be "much" higher than $10. 

Again, this gets back to how oil is priced. Oil is priced on the cost of the "last" bbl produced, note the legacy oil.


More from the thread:

"Not to mention that even if oil demand was to drop 30% by 2050 the world would still need to develop ~ 50 million bbls per day of new oil supply over the next 30 years -- roughly four Saudi Arabia's wroth of new production would be needed."
"Do you really think that happens at $10/bbl." s/gmafb.


"Remember: the majority of the Wood Mac reports are compiled by 35-year-old indoctrinated kids with no real world experience having graduated from hard-left universities."

"Wood is grinding hard for those renewable dollars."

JPM apparently is going to invest $2.7 trillion dollars in renewable energy research. Or something like that.

Notes And Comment -- Early Morning Edition -- April 15, 2021

Dow, S&P 500: at record highs (again).

WTI: $62.76

Quick look:

  • pipelines:
    • OKE: down 0.4%; down 19 cents; trading at $51.32;
    • ENB: up 0.22%; up about 8 cents; trading at $37.17;
    • EPD: down 0.04%; down about 1 cents; trading at $23.12;
  • tech:
    • AAPL whoo-hoo -- the breakout continues --up over 2%; up about $2.80; trading at $135;
    • QCOM: up about 1.5%; up about $2; trading at $136.74;
  • misc:
    • BRK-B: down slightly; down about 0.4%; down about $1.09; trading at $266
    • UNP: up alightly, up about 0.12%; up about 27 cents; trading at $222.87;
  • oil:
    • MNRL: up slightly; up about 3 cents; trading at $16.29;

Bank of America: profit more than doubles on reserve release boost, 1Q21. The bank released $2.7 billion from its reserves.

JP Morgan: profit soars to record after bank releases reserves for bad loans. Link here. Regulators allow JPM to free-up $5.2 billion.

Goldman: record results; earnings at $18.60 crushed the estimate of $10.22; the results represented growth of almost 500% from a year earlier. Revenue of $17.7 billion easily topped expectations of $12.6 billion. Link here

BRK-B: hitting record highs. Why? Holdings are concentrated in three sectors: financials, consumer staples, and information technology.

Federal off-shore oil: all that talk about killing the industry? Turns out to be all talk. Link here. Crude oil production in the US Federal Gulf of Mexico will increase over the next two years -- EIA. By end 2022 -- that's next year -- thirteen new projects could account for twelve percent of total GoM crude oil production. Original story here.

Mideast: rebels still firing darts and drones toward Saudi's oil infrastructure.

The Road To Mexico: Filled With American Natural Gas -- April 15, 2021

Road to Mexico: US natural gas exports to Mexico quietly his a new record of 7.376 billion cubic feet yesterday, Wednesday, April 14, 2021. Link here. The trend line is not trivial. Is that 1.3 million boepd?

SRE: up 0.25%; up 34 cents; this $124-stock is now trading at $135.79.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The DAPL: Where We Stand Today

Where we stand today:

Friday, April 9, 2021, day 0:

  • US Army Corps of Engineers won't shut it down; will let judge decide
  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Saturday, April 10, 2021, day 1:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Sunday, April 11, 2021, day 2:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Monday, April 12, 2021, day 3:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Tuesday, April 13, 2021, day 4:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Wednesday, April 14, 2021, day 5:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;

Thursday, April 15, 2021, day 6:

  • Judge: thumbs down; kill it;

Friday, April 16, 2021, day 7:

  • Judge: thumbs up; let it flow;
Saturday, April 17, 2021, day 8:

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Enerplus Reports A Nice Mandaree Well; Active Rig Count At 17 -- April 15, 2021

Ten-year Treasury at a one-month low. Dropped today; barely above 1.6%. All that hand-wringing.

Economy: incredible report. Jobs. Earnings. Retail sales. Motor vehicle sales.


Give the children credit: IRS ready to sent out $300/child. Link here.

BRK-B: hit an all-time high yesterday? Could do it again today.

Port of Los Angeles: busiest quarter on record. On record. Link here.

Olympics 202One: not so fast. Cancellation is back on the table as Covid cases surge in Japan.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1735646151

Three wells coming off confidential list --Thursday, April 15, 2021: 11 for the month, 11 for the quarter, 92 for the year:

  • 37231, drl/NC, WPX, Patricia Kelly 2-1HX, Spotted Horn, no production data,
  • 36248,, drl/NC, BR, Stortroen 2D MBH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
  • 35802, drl/NC,-->conf-->F/A, Enerplus, Sleet 149-93-07A-12H, 33-025-03632, Mandaree, first production, 10/20; 13K; fracked 10/3/20 - 10/14/20; 8 million gallons of water; 84.5% water by mass; first productoion, 10/20; at 13,569 bbls over 8 days, extrapolates to 51K bbls crude oil; t--; cum 138K 2/21; the Enerplus "Precipitation" pad is tracked here.

Note "progression" of #35802. When I first started blogging about the Bakken, I was told this could (?) not happen: drl/NC,-->conf-->F/A.

RBN Energy: Canadian refiners adapt to changes in North American market

The U.S. and Canada make quite a team. Friends for most of the past century and a half — and best buddies since World War II — the two countries have highly integrated economies, especially on the energy front. Large volumes of crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, and refined products flow across the U.S.-Canadian border, and a long list of producers, midstreamers, and refiners are active in both nations. One more thing: since the mid-2000s, the development of U.S. shale and the Canadian oil sands in particular has enabled refiners in both countries to significantly reduce their dependence on overseas oil — a big victory for North American energy independence. 
However, due to its smaller population and economy, Canada typically gets far less attention than its southern neighbor, so in today’s blog we try to right that wrong by discussing highlights from a new, freshly updated Drill Down Report on Canada’s refining sector.

My favorite aunt. Not Canadian. Sorry. Not sorry.