Saturday, June 30, 2018

US Natural Gas Production Hits All-Time Record In April -- EIA -- Argus Media -- June 30, 2018 -- So The Magic Number Is 90 BCFPD

From ArgusMedia:
US natural gas output hit a record high in April above 89 Bcf/d (2.5bn m³/d) as production rose in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma.
Gross gas production from the lower-48 states rose in April to 89.1 Bcf/d, up by 0.3pc, or 252mn cf/d from March, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today in its monthly production report. April output has surged by 12pc from a year earlier as new infrastructure allowed more northeast gas to reach market and as producers continued to shore up fresh oil supplies from places like the Permian basin. 
Rising gas production and expectations for future supply growth has put downward pressure on prices this year.
Natural gas futures so far this summer have failed to sustain a rally above $3/mmBtu, despite low inventories and hot weather, a sign of confidence in continued growth.

Some People Are Suggesting Next OPEC Meeting Needs To Be Held In D.C. -- June 30, 2018

From twitter today:


Current OPEC+ increase: I believe it's about 750,000 bopd. That won't amount to nearly enough to offset all the curtailments worldwide.

Two million bopd is a start. The big question: can Saudi Arabia increase output by that much and export that much to the US? Right now, Saudi Arabia is exporting about 800,000 bopd to the US. The US has imported 2 million bopd from Saudi Arabia on only a couple of occasions, back in 2003.

We'll see Monday what traders think of this. Futures will start trading 6:00 p.m. EDT, Sunday evening.

CLR Wants To Put 23 Wells In One Drilling Unit In Haystack Butte -- June 30, 2018

Updates

October 22, 2019:



Original Post  

From the July, 2018, NDIC hearing dockets. Note this is a case, not a permit:
  • Case #26772, CLR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; twenty-three (23) wells on that unit; Dunn County; the unit: sections 4/5/8/9-148-97
This sounds like a lot, but the density works out to only six wells / section.
 
Graphic:


Wells in that area:
  • 16683, 224, CLR, Federal Jorgenson 14-5H, Haystack Butte, API 33-025-00639, t12/07; cum 61K 5/18; recently off line;
  • 18615, 480, CLR, Jorgenson Federal 44-9H, Haystack Butte, API 33-025-01029, t7/10; cum 494K 5/18;

The Hearing Docket Agenda For July, 2018 Has Been Posted -- Summer

The NDIC hearing dockets for July, 2018, have been posted. Link here.

Dockets are posted at the NDIC site here.

Dockets are tracked here

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Highlights in bold.

Wednesday, July 25, 2018
  • 26749, True Oil, Bowline-Red River, establish two 320-acre units; one vertical well on each; McKenzie County
  • 26750, True, North Branch-Red River, establish a 320-acre unit; one vertical well; McKenzie
  • 26751, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, exception to orders for a particular well; McKenzie, Mountrail
  • 26752, Whiting, Sanish, Alger, and/or Robinson Lake-Bakken, i) establish five overlapping 2560-acre units; ii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units; two wells on each unit; iii) establish two overlapping 1920-acre units; two wells on each; Mountrail
  • 26753, Whiting, Sanish, Alger, and/or Stanley-Bakken, i) establish three overlapping 2560-acre units, two wells each; ii) establish one overlapping 1920-acre unit; two wells; Mountrail;
  • 26754, Whiting, Sanish and/or Big Bend-Bakken, establish three overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells each; Mountrail
  • 26755, Whiting, Sanish and/or Big Bend-Bakken; i) establish four overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells each; ii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units; two wells each; iii) terminate three overlapping 2560-acre units; Mountrail and McKenzie
  • 26756, Whiting, Sanish, Big Bend and/or Parshall-Bakken; amend, i) establish three overlapping 2560-acre units, two wells each; establish one overlapping 1280-acre unit; two wells; Mountrail
  • 26757, Whiting, Sanish, Big Bend, and/or Four Bears-Bakken; i) terminate an overlapping 2560-acre unit; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, two wells; McKenzie
  • 26578, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, i) establish two overlapping 2560-acre units, two wells; ii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units, two wells on each, Mountrail
  • 26759, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; two wells; establish an overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells; iii) establish an overlapping3200-acre unit; two wells; Mountrail
  • 26760, Kraken Operating, pooling
  • 26761, Kraken Operating, pooling
  • 26762, Petro-Hunt, pooling
  • 26763, Oasis, flaring waiver
  • 26764, Oasis, flaring waiver
  • 26765, Oasis, flaring waiver
  • 26766, Oasis, flaring waiver
  • 26767, Hydra, SWD
Thursday, July 26, 2018
  • 26768, XTO, NDIC commission, consider appropriate spacing for wells completed in the Morgan Draw-Bakken in the 2560-acre unit; Billings County
  • 26769, CLR, Beaver Lodge and/or Pleasant Valley-Bakken; establish an overlapping 3840-acre units; one well; Williams County
  • 26770, CLR, Chimney Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; four wells; Dunn County
  • 26771, CLR, Banks-Bakken, establish a 3200-acre unit; two wells; Williams, McKenzie
  • 26772, CLR, Haystack Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; twenty-three (23) wells on that unit; Dunn County; the unit: sections 4/5/8/9-148-97; see this post;
  • 26773, RimRock, Moccasin Creek-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, Dunn County;  
  • 26774, Liberty Resources, Gros Ventre-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; eight wells; Burke County'
  • 26775, Liberty Resources, Cottonwood-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; eight wells; Burke County
  • 26776, Enerplus, Eagle Nest-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; DunnCounty
  • 26777, Enerplus, Mandaree-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Dunn County
  • 26778, Hydroil Solutions, SWD,
  • 26779, Hydroil Solutiosn, SWD
  • 26780, Liberty Resources, pooling
  • 26781, Liberty Resources, pooling
  • 26782, Liberty Resources, pooling
  • 26783, Liberty Resources, Gros Ventre-Bakken, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Burke County
  • 26784, Slawson, pooling
  • 26785, WPX, pooling
  • 26786, WPX, commingling
  • 26787, RimRock, Mandaree-Bakken; two wells along unit lines; Dunn County
  • 26788, RimRock, Moccasin Creek-Bakken; three wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 10-147-93; Dunn County
  • 26789, CLR, pooling
  • 26790, CLR, pooling
  • 26791, CLR, pooling
  • 26792, CLR, pooling
  • 26793, CLR, St Demetrius-Bakken; four wells on an existing unit; Billings County
  • 26794, CLR, SWD
  • 26795, CLR, SWD
  • 26796, BNN ND, SWD
  • 26797, BNN ND, SWD
  • 26798, McKenzie Energy Partners, SWD

Produced Water Problem In The Permian -- June 30, 2018

There are many issues associated with produced water, everything from economics for a single well; to economics for a US shale producer; and, then, the environmental cost and the issue of injected-related earthquakes.

My takeaway from all this:
  • the Bakken is in much, much better shape compared to the Permian with regard to produced water
  • in fact, there may be no comparison
  • the Bakken has been dealing with this issue for the past ten years
  • the Bakken has nowhere near the amount of produced water that the Permian has
  • the Permian, in boom stage right now, will get worse before it gets better
  • the Bakken, in the "manufacturing stage," has probably been through the worst
  • Permian production (oil and water) is likely to increase significantly
  • Bakken production may be near steady-state levels
I don't know how many caught this from FracFocus yesterday. It was the first time I noticed it, but it's likely there are other examples that I simply missed.

Look at the frack data for this well, from FracFocus:
  • 17100, 240, CLR, Mountain Gap 31-10H, Rattlesnake Point, t6/08; cum 123K 5/18; 
  • original frack, May 30, 2008; open hole, 1.1 million lbs sand;
  • more recently, 17 days of 26,682 production extrapolates to 47,000 bbls over 30 days; API 33-025-00734; according to FracFocus, this well was fracked in Jan/Feb, 2018 (recently); 9.97 million lbs of water, but look at this:
    • water: 70.797%
    • sand: 11.85%
    • produced brine water: 4.85%
  • those percentages add up to 87.49%
  • I can't account for the other 12%
  • the chemical cocktail is very, very small, maybe a percent or two 
The reason I bring that up is the subject of the article in North American Shale. Data points:
  • produced water is becoming a significant problem in the Permian
  • what to do with it
  • people talk about the "produced water" problem in the Bakken, but look at this data, with regard to the ratio of produced water (to crude oil, I assume):
    • DJ (Basin): might be 1:1
    • Delaware Basin (the "most prolific basin" in the Permian):
      • generally, 4:1
      • extreme cases, 7:1
      • worst cases: 10: 1
  • the Permian operators are dealing with an unprecedented amount of produced water
  • could impact pricing by as much as $6/bbl
More:
What’s different now it that unconventional development in the Permian doesn’t allow for the same water management practices. By that I mean if you’re drilling conventional wells, most of the produced water can be reinjected for water floods or EOR (enhanced oil recovery). Whereas now, the operators, many are testing some of the tertiary recovery techniques, but nothing’s being done on a wide scale.
Note: it's my understanding that water flooding unconventional tight shale could end up turning the clay into gumbo -- i.e., a failed well. 

I've never tracked produced water in the Bakken, but a quick look at a few wells suggest the ratio is "never" worse than 1:1 (see below). Often, after the initial "regurgitation" after the initial frack, produced water drops off significantly, but then may increase as the well ages.

From BTU Analytics, 2014 . When you look at this graphic, remember, the Permian produced a whole less oil than it is producing today (one cannot say the same thing for the Bakken):



From researchgate:
  • Two graphics. The first graphic without any additional markings; the second graphic is the same with my annotations since it is hard to read. This is water to oil ratio during initial production; that often changes significantly after well matures:




For additional reading, the best one for the Permian is the "pubs - 7b02185" link below:

Saudi Crude Oil Exports To The US -- April, 2018

Most recent import data has just been posted by the EIA. This is Saudi Arabia crude oil exports to the US. Note the slight increase month-over-month. This is in thousands of bbls per oil per day. The link:

Saudi has gone from upwards of 1.5 million bopd back in 2008 to well less than a million bopd in 2018, ten years later.

How is Iraq doing? Just fine, thank you. See this post (at the link, scroll to the very bottom) -- that data is also new, having just been released today.

Crude oil imports from Canada at this site: a slight decrease from last month but not much, but the jump in Canadian crude oil imports is incredible over the past ten years. Too bad the Keystone XL was killed by President Obama.

Overall, OPEC had a huge jump in crude oil exported to the US: from 88 million bbls in March to over 105 million bbls in April -- a 20% jump in OPEC imports in just one month. I assume Iraq made up the largest percentage of that increase. Nigeria and Angola had a much large percentage increase, but overall numbers were much smaller than those of Iraq.

Non-OPEC US imports fell substantially, mostly due to markedly decreased imports from Mexico. On a percentage basis, Russia imports fell be a larger amount.

**********************************
Jellyfish
Spineless, Juli Berwald, c. 2017
The Ancestor's Tale, Richard Dawkins, c. 2004/2016

In the 1980's jellyfish were classified as part of a group known as Coelenterates -- "hole inside" -- due to their simple cuplike anatomy.

The Coelenterates included jellyfish, corals, sea anemones, and comb jellies.

But, more study revealed that comb jellies did not have stinging cells/poison-laden darts and thus did not belong to this group.

The group was divided into two groups. The Coelenterates no longer exist. The comb jellies have been split into their own phylum, Ctenophora ("comb-bearing"). Meanwhile, jellyfish, corals, and sea anemones are in the phylum Cnidaria, for their cnidae -- the stinging cells.

Dawkins puts the Ctenophores slightly older than Cnidaria.

More to follow. In progress.

From the book, starting on page 259:

I've come to believe that the stinging cell is the most sophisticated cell to have ever evolved in any animal. I've heard it said that the vertebrate eye is the most complicated organ, and critics of evolution point to the eye as something too sophisticated to result from the haphazard process of natural selection ....

An unexploded stinging cell is minute: between 2 and 250 microns long, in the range of the width of a human hair ...

The skin of the capsule is a remarkable material made up mainly of two proteins. One is called minicollagen ...

... the other is a protein that has only recently been identified, called cnidoin because it is found only in cnidarians. Cnidoin is even stretchier and stronger than collagen. When tugged, cnidoin can grow 70 percent in length without breaking ... thin sheets have unparalleled strength and spring. The sheets are also porous, allowing water, but not larger molecules, to pas through them...

... when the stinging cell is triggered, electrical changes in the cell signal the calcium ions to release their grip on the [cnidoin] polymers .. . water rushes inside to equalize the concentration, expanding the super-stretchy capsule skin by 30 percent .. the swelling jacks up the capsule with an unfathomable amount of pressure: 150 atmospheres. Air pressure pushing down you is one atmosphere; you inflate your car tires to just over two atmospheres. A stinging cell holds seventy-five times more pressure than a car tire...

... the pointed [and poisoned] dart hits its prey with a pressure of over a million pounds per square inch, similar to a bullet fired from a gun. A Ferrari can accelerate from 0 to 60 mph in three seconds, an acceleration of 3 g, where g means g-force, or the acceleration due to gravity...

... the acceleration of the stinging cell is 5 million g. It's thought to be the fastest motion in the animal kingdom...

... while the stinging cell is unique to jellyfish, anemones, and corals, each of these groups has come up with an astonishing number of riffs on the theme .. about thirty different types. 

Saudi Crude Oil Production -- Summer -- Part 1 -- June 30, 2018

Be careful on this page. It is a long note, divided into three parts, parts A, B, and C. The first two parts are re-postings of early posts. The third part is the new post for the day. 

Part 1 of a 2-part series, if I don't forget to post part 2, which will be posted later today or tomorrow.

We're going to start seeing a lot of stories of increased production by Saudi Arabia. I take such stores in the summer with a grain of salt. The question is whether this production will be sustained. Every summer, Saudi production is increased (all things being equal) to meet domestic demand. The Saudis use crude oil to make electricity to run their air conditioners. Part A begins with a September 2, 2015, post:

Part A, from June 2015
Update on Saudi Arabia's production / export -- June, 2015, data
Saudi Arabia's crude exports recovered to 7.365 million b/d in June after falling to 6.935 million b/d in May.
Apart from the dip in May, the kingdom's exports have been above the 7 million b/d level since the beginning of this year.
And, following Riyadh's refusal to cut output late last year as oil prices plunged, Saudi production has held above 10 million b/d since March, climbing to 10.564 million b/d in June.
The volume of crude processed in Saudi refineries inside the kingdom fell to 2.099 million b/d in June from 2.423 million b/d in May while the volume of crude burned directly in the kingdom's power plants rose to 894,000 b/d from 677,000 b/d.
Domestic use:
Saudi Arabia's high use of crude oil in power generation, especially during the searing summer heat when demand for air conditioning soars, is well known.

The June volume represented 8.5% of Saudi crude production. But it's not just in Saudi Arabia that direct-burn volumes have been rising.

Iraq's use of crude to generate electricity has climbed sharply over the past two years, with a record volume of 190,000 b/d -- 5.3% of its total official production -- burned in power plants in June.

The direct-burn volume first climbed above 100,000 b/d in July 2013, soaring to 133,000 b/d from 89,000 b/d the previous month.
I'm still not particularly impressed with "10.6 million bopd" production coming out of Saudi Arabia.  I've said this many, many times; see previous posts for background.
***************************************************************************** 
Part B, from July 2015
Saudi's Increased Production Will Not Off Set 
Record Domestic Demand -- 2015

Reposting from July, 2015 (link here)
Updates

July 14, 2015: increase in Saudi production will NOT off set record domestic demand. Platts is reporting:
Saudi Arabia's refinery intake increased by 235,000 b/d or 12% year on year in the second quarter, and total consumption is expected to reach 3 million b/d in Q3.

Refinery intake increased as the new 400,000 b/d Yasref refinery ramped up to full capacity.

The refinery, a joint venture between Saudi Aramco and Sinopec, will contribute to total Saudi crude consumption reaching 3 million b/d in Q3, as demand peaks due to the summer months. 
Original Post
 
This is what the Saudis have achieved with their five-year, $35 billion program to increase production:
The world’s biggest oil exporter pumped 10.564 million barrels a day in June, exceeding a previous record set in 1980, according to data the kingdom submitted to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
10.564 million bbls.

From my post of June 30, 2015:
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer, increased output by 150,000 barrels a day to 10.45 million in June, the most in monthly Bloomberg data going back to 1989. [This increase comes after a $35 billion, 5-year program to increase production. So, after announcing this $35 billion program, Saudi sets a record by increasing output by 150,000 bopd, from 10.30 million = a whopping 1.46% increase. Disclaimer holds.]
So, 10.564 - 10.45 = 0.114
0.114 / 10.45 = 0.0109 = 1% increase month-over-month.

In the most recent data available from the NDIC, North Dakota increased its month-over-month production by almost 3% despite a huge decrease in active rig count and choking back in response to low oil prices and to comply with self-imposed flaring rules and mandated conditioning rules.

Back to Saudi Arabia. We are getting close to the magic 11 million bopd number.
Citigroup Inc. predicts the kingdom will push toward its maximum daily capacity, which the bank estimates at about 11 million barrels, in the second half of 2015.
Also from that post:
In my simple mind, this is my world view:
  • numbers coming out of Saudi Arabia can never be trusted;
  • Saudi's production fluctuates around 9.5 million barrels of oil;
  • at one time, pundits said Saudi's maximum production was 12 million bbls (now it's 11 million bbls);
  • this post and the graph at this post tell the story;
  • a jump from 10.3 million to 11 million (assuming it's even "real") is hardly earth-shattering especially as off-shore projects are cancelled / delayed;
  • Saudi needs to increase production by a million bbls just to meet its own domestic demand -- which is increasing -- and to meet the requirements of the new refineries Saudi is building in-country; 
  • Saudi has huge new self-defense expenses and a shooting war to fund; but the biggie is ...
  • ... Saudi has just canceled its solar projects for desalination and will require more oil for the energy required for desalination
Goldman Sachs has been talking down oil for months, I think at one time anticipating $40 oil by this time, and hinting at possibilities of $20 oil.
But the graphic that sticks in my mind, in light of Saudi's $35 billion, 5-year project to boost oil production is at this June 5, 2015, link, also linked above. Maybe I'm misreading the graph, but the EIA has Saudi pumping around 12.5 million bopd in the past, and production remains flat, regardless of what the "real" number is.

And then this. This is so cool. I posted that when the numbers come out, analysts will focus on "increased production numbers" but will not emphasize why Saudi needs to increase production. Bloomberg mentions this early in the story:
“Saudi Arabia is still pursuing a market-share strategy,” Torbjoern Kjus, an analyst at DNB ASA in Oslo, said by phone. “They need more oil domestically for air conditioning in the summer, so they could choose to either produce more or reduce exports. Clearly they choose to produce more.”
I've always gotten a kick out of that. Folks go ballistic over the flaring in the Bakken, and yet Saudi uses its most precious commodity -- oil -- to run air conditioners. Wow.

From the Bloomberg article:
Global oil demand will accelerate next year to 1.34 million barrels a day compared with 1.28 million in 2015, led by rising consumption in emerging economies, according to the report. Supply growth outside OPEC will slow to 300,000 barrels a day in 2016 from 860,000 a day this year with the gain concentrated in the U.S.
Setting us up for $200 oil.

By the way, Saudi's strategy to give oil away at $50/bbl:
The group sees “a more balanced market” in 2016 as demand for its crude strengths and supply elsewhere falters.
OPEC said it expects expanding oil consumption to outpace diminished output growth from rival producers such as U.S. shale drillers, whittling away a supply glut. The strategy is taking time to have an impact, with crude prices remaining 46 percent below year-ago levels and annual U.S. production forecast to reach a 45-year high.
Spin. 
***************************************************************************** 
Part C, from June 2017 With Updated Data
Iraq Eating Saudi's Lunch: From June, 2017
Link here. Spreadsheet below -- Iraqi crude oil exports to the US.
Iraq eating Saudi's lunch: from Bloomberg --  Iraq is driving up crude oil exports to the U.S., the world’s second-biggest import market, just as there are signs Saudi Arabia is honoring a pledge to restrict such deliveries, according to tanker-tracking data. See EIA data here.

When I last posted this data, imports went from 9 million bbls to 17 million bbls from 2014 to early 2017. This works out to an 88% increase over three years.

Now, updating the data, taking us from early 2017 to most current data, Iraqi imports into the US continue to increase, this time from 17 million bbls to 25 million bbls (all figures, per month).


This works out to another 47% increase, but this was over one year, not three years as before.

We'll come back to all this in late autumn to see how Saudi's summer production kept up with domestic demand.

Week 26: June 24, 2018 -- June 30, 2018

Operations
CLR's Kennedy-Miles wells have been fracked; data not yet released; and, here
Indications that CLR has set initial production record in the Bakken; and, here; and, here;
Active rigs in North Dakota at 67
Another Enerplus Tortoise/Turtle pad planned
 
DUCs
Bakken update

Flaring
RBN Energy provides update

Pipelines
Minnesota PUC unanimously approves Enbridge Line 3 

Bakken 101
Using FracFocus data to determine amount of sand used

Bakken economy
1Q18 taxable sales for the state of North Dakota surge

Other formations
Many articles on the Permian, USGS assessment; 

Pricing
WTI surges into "deep backwardation" -- John Kemp
US crude oil inventories plunge -- down 10 million bbls 
Canada loses 10% of its western Canadian production due to technical difficulties
Production in the Neutral Zone comes to a halt due to technical difficulties 

Commentary
Canada at a tipping point -- the road to Canada
US LNG exports surge; Panama Canal will accommodate
Tea leaves suggest price of oil to increase
Governments stepping back from ludicrous renewable mandates;

MAGA
US companies repatriating their cash hordes 

Friday, June 29, 2018

CLR's Kennedy-Miles Wells Have Been Fracked And Are Starting To Produce -- June 29, 2018

The Kennedy-Miles wells have been fracked, according to FracFocus. Wells still on SI/NC but are showing some production. I will update later but wanted folks to know these wells have been fracked. The Kennedy-Miles wells are followed here.

Seven New Permits; Iron Ore Operating With Two New Permits; No DUCs Reported As Completed; WTI Closes At $74.15 -- June 29, 2019 -- Last Business Day In 1H18

WTI: it's hard to believe WTI was below $45 a year ago, from ycharts --


*********************************
Daily Activity Report

Active rigs:

$74.156/29/201806/29/201706/29/201606/29/201506/29/2014
Active Rigs67593077191

Seven new permits:
  • Operators: Oasis (5); Iron Ore (2)
  • Fields: Camp (McKenzie); Ellsworth (McKenzie);  Little Tank (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Oasis has permits for two pads, both Slagle pads, in same section, section 12-151-101; Iron Ore has a total of about two dozen wells/permits in North Dakota; all of them are active oil and gas wells except for these two new permits and one salt water disposal well;
Eight permits renewed:
  • Crescent Point Energy: four CPEUSC Berner permits and four CPEUSC Nelson permits, all on one pad, SWSE 19-157-99
No DUCs reported as completed.

Mountain Gap Wells -- FracFocus Data May Be In Error -- June 29, 2018


Updates

Postings by date:


October 5, 2019: current graphic of the area --


October 24, 2018:
  • 33556, 1,556, CLR, Mountain Gap 2-10H1, Rattlesnake Point, t7/18; cum 168K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2018313417734306425463647936172307
BAKKEN7-201891220911683153121319888984300

October 22, 2018: link here.
  • 33557, 2,103, CLR, Mountain Gap 3-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages; 15.3 million lbs, t7/18; cum 263K 6/19;

  • PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN8-2018314475544888421394919248687100
    BAKKEN7-201818326493218432629347612149713029
    BAKKEN6-20180000000
October 19, 2018: another Mountain Gap that has been reported:
  • 33559, 2,488, CLR, Mountain Gap 5-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages; 15.2 million lbs, t7/18; cum 231K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20181517153170421522620077148515046
BAKKEN7-201823400694005740885524803185920329
BAKKEN6-20184638961025748714856771423
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20187113711376549167801678

October 7, 2018: this is a second bench Three Forks well:
  • 33558, 2,294,  CLR, Mountain Gap 4-10H2, Rattlesnake Point, second bench; two days to drill vertical portion; the curve took about 36 hours to build; error in reporting dates so unable to tell how long it took to drill the lateral, probably two days; gas exceeded 6,000 units; at one time reaching 7,800 units; flare maxed at 5 feet; 64 stages; 10 million lbs, a huge well; t7/18; cum 241K 6/19;
  • PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN8-2018312355223614349212514123844892
    BAKKEN7-201831467894670065111568084065215753
    BAKKEN6-2018445374222668352654511706
    BAKKEN5-20180000000
    BAKKEN4-20188200020009459233902339
     
August 14, 2018: #33120 and #33121 come off confidential list August 25, 2018, and August 27, 2018, respectively.
  • 33120, 3,510, CLR, Moutain Gap 7-10H, Rattlesnake Point, t5/18; cum 437K 6/19; 37 stages; 15 million lbs -- middle Bakken:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20183137955378552387743818421931230
BAKKEN7-2018313329533370203433673536210148
BAKKEN6-2018303227232381189723424133637236
BAKKEN5-20183184883844745708353685509402745
BAKKEN4-201847865765854635720572
BAKKEN3-201823173170000
BAKKEN2-2018412312370105501055

  •  33121: 2,972, CLR, Moutain Gap 8-10H1; Rattlesnake Point, t5/18; cum 277K 6/19; 37 stages; 15 million lbs; TF1
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-201831192591930923179223532189081
BAKKEN7-201831236592364724486267022624283
BAKKEN6-2018301764517759233151935218794190
BAKKEN5-201831700417009981120223502235
BAKKEN4-20184924886869245179901799
BAKKEN3-201814324060000
BAKKEN2-2018310610621145401454

August 9, 2018 (update on future dates): all these Mountain Gap wells have been completed and are starting to produce, but they are still on the confidential list -- the Rattlesnake Point wells are tracked here.
  • 33561, 1,861, CLR, Mountain Gap 12-10H, Rattlesnake Point,64 stages; 15.3 million lbs, 6/18; cum 285K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2018301964719590277482473423424939
BAKKEN7-201831241992420636983329662255010069
BAKKEN6-20183032056317494057837359355471431
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-201888718715318910891

  • 33123, 2,904,  CLR, Mountain Gap 10-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 63 stages; 15 million lbs, t6/18; cum 411K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2018314974549775363045675956079298
BAKKEN7-2018317232172304630987462473769480
BAKKEN6-2018305280352816526135254851466714
BAKKEN5-2018117021232104184783215
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-2018476761317540754
  •  33579, 2,072, CLR, Mountain Gap 11-10H1, Rattlesnake Point, 64 stages; 15.3 million lbs, t6/18; cum 227K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20183127298272482380633529305082616
BAKKEN7-201831342603433935160489692311925445
BAKKEN6-20183035943355443842043568368966289
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-201812282280000
BAKKEN3-201885175171518610861

Original Post

Disclaimer: it should be noted, I have been "snookered" on at least one occasion in the past when we thought we had a staggering record monthly production number only to find it was a typo by the NDIC. So, I'm waiting for the data once these wells come off the confidential before I get too excited.

Before getting to the subject of this post, look at these incredible wells CLR will be reporting, (for more on these wells, see this post):
  • 33121, 2,972, CLR, Mountain Gap 8-10H1, API 33-025-03237, producing but still confidential; we don't know the number of days of production in 5/18 (I assume a full month); and we don't know how much natural gas produced; t5/18; cum 277K 6/19;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20181775918794
5-2018700990
4-201886860
3-20184060
2-20181060
  • 33120, 3,510, CLR, Mountain Gap 7-10H, API 33-025-03236, huge production; 80K+ in first month of unconstrained production; 50,940 mcf = 8,500 boe. Plus the 84,474 = 92,962 boe in first month of unconstrained production. In the first two months of unconstrained production, 132,000 boe; t5/18; cum 437K 6/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2018303227232381189723424133637236
BAKKEN5-20183184883844745708353685509402745
BAKKEN4-201847865765854635720572
BAKKEN3-201823173170000
BAKKEN2-2018412312370105501055

Update

See note below. Now we have the data for the well in question:
  • 33120, 3,510, CLR, Mountain Gap 7-10H, Rattlesnake Point, 37 stages; 15 million lbs, huge well; 84K in one month; t5/18; cum 437K 6/19;
Original Note

Now the reason for this post.
  • One has to assume, Harold Hamm fracked the heck out of these two wells to get results like this. So, let's check FracFocus (the NDIC would not have this data yet).
FracFocus screenshots for these two wells down below.
Now, before you look at the FracFocus graphics: I have never, never, ever, ever seen an obvious typographical error posted by FracFocus.
The production numbers above are apparently correct; a reader verified that his royalty pay stubs confirms this production. So, 99.99999% sure there is no typo above but the NDIC has been known to make errors. But if the pay stubs reflect this production ...
And as noted, I have never seen FracFocus make an obvious typographic error.

If the FracFocus data is correct, then what are we to make of the production numbers of one of the wells above?

Here are the screenshots of the FracFocus data for these two wells. 

For the first well, #33121, the frack mix was not unusual:
  • water: 10.4 million lbs of water
  • water: 84% by weight
  • sand: 15% by weight
For the second well, #33120, either an error or something quite exciting; we will know when the wells come off confidential list:
  • water: less than a million gallons of water
  • water: 88% by weight
  • sand: 11% by weight
  • Later, frack data from the NDIC/CLR: 37 stages; 15 million lbs sand;
Look at line 3: only 935,592 gallons of water -- less than a million gallons. Fracks these days are generally 10 million gallons of water. Again, I've never see FracFocus make a mistake.

NOW .... a little bit more to add to the mystery. A normal frac (for a long lateral) takes about ten days, certainly not less than three or four days for a long lateral, but look at this:

For #33120 with less than a million gallons of water, only two days for the frack:
For #33121 with the more "normal" ten million gallons of water, ten days for the frack:

I am eagerly looking forward to the file report for the Mountain Gap wells when they come off the confidential list.