Saturday, December 18, 2021

A Closer Look At The Site Where Oasis Is Drilling A Well In Camp Oil Field -- December 18, 2021

This Oasis site is being drilled by Nabors B26. There is no scout ticket and the site is not on the NDIC map due to faulty NDIC database migration.

The site: SWSW 2-152-101.

The well:

  • 38525, drl, Oasis, Lindvig Beck Federal 5201 41-2 5B, Camp oil field;

With no scout ticket and probably being on confidential list anyway, we do not know which way the horizontal will run, but based on data from the map that is available (though out of date) suggests the horizontal will run east from the SWSW quadrant of section 2-152-101. If so, it's very possible the horizontal will be a super-long lateral, three sections, 1920-acre. The problem: I can't find an Oasis case for a 1920-acre well in Camp oil field. So just a 1280-acre spaced well? 

Closer Look At The Iron Oil Operating Site In Sather Lake -- December 18, 2021

The site currently being drilled by Iron Oil Operating (no scout ticket and not on the NDIC map due to broken IT at the NDIC):

  • 38461, drl, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 5-17-20H, Sather Lake,

There is one active well in that drilling unit, but to the east:

  • 25652, 160, off line 7/21, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 1-17-20H, Sather Lake, t11/13; cum 173K 7/21;

Lock Downs And Energy Policy -- December 18, 2021

I don't know if folks recall but just as crude oil was starting to surge again back in mid-to-late November, 2021, WTI trending toward $80, out of the blue, out of thin air, all of a sudden, the WHO (run by the Chinese) notes/finds/announces a new variant of Covid-19; traders panic, and crude oil plummets. The sudden drop in the price of oil, just as heating oil was desperately needed for winter just around the corner, was incredibly fortuitous for China. It was obvious what was going on and I mentioned it on the blog. 

Well, here we go again. TFF = Netherlands. Energy prices in Europe surging. What to do about surging prices? 

Link here. Here we go again. 

Link here.

From twitter

"Lockdowns significantly lower electricity consumption. Higher residential consumption greatly offset by lower industrial consumption. Is this the real reason behind the European lockdown push? European energy policy is paralyzing Europe while Omicron has barely been felt." https://t.co/4YQXP6YHac" /

Also from twitter:


The Bakken: Trending Toward Some Very, Very Cold Temperatures Today -- December 18, 2021

In the Bakken today, it appears Watford City will have the warmest weather in the region, with a -15°F -- yes, fifteen degrees below zero -- being reported as of 9:00 a.m. Saturday morning, December 18, 2021:

Alkobo, ND, north of Williston, in Divide County, reported a minus 28°F at 9:00 a.m. this morning.

Other notable reportings:

  • Ray, ND: -28°
  • Tioga, ND: -27°
  • Minot: -17°
  • Williston: -16°

A huge thank you to the reader who sent me this screen shot, who knows that I must really miss the cool weather up north, and/or bring back great memories of growing up in Williston!

MRO's Three-Rig Bailey Oil Field Program -- December 18, 2021

None of this is easily available / discoverable now that the NDIC database interface is broken. 

But with your subscription to TheMillionDollarWay blog you get these spreadsheets, maps, and much, much more.

MRO's three-rig Bailey oil field program:




The older wells of interest sited in section 18-146-93:

To the west:

  • 16715, 463, off line 10/21; MRO, Kevin Buehner 11-18H, t10/07; cum 398K 9/21;
  • 33535, 6,204, MRO, Arkin 44-12TFH, t1/18; cum 440K 9/21; note: this well has produced more oil in three years than the Kevin Buehner well has produced in fourteen years; 
  • 33534, 5,113, MRO, Bronett 14-7H, t1/18; cum 409K 9/21;  
  • 33400, 3,017, MRO, Ernst 14-7TFH, t2/18; cum 369K 9/21;

To the east:

  • 33401, 3,161, off line 10/21; MRO, Kenneth 24-7TFH, t1/18; cum 327K 9/21; 
  • 33402, 3,040, MRO, Bethol 24-7H, t2/18; cum 351K 10/21; 
  • 33403, 3,484, MRO, Stroup 34-7TFH, t1/18; cum 327K 9/21;


  • 16992, 149, off line 7/21; Kevin Buehner 31-18H, t8/08; cum 198K 7/21;

Possibly, the well of interest in section 36-146-94:

  • 18588, 469, off line 7/21; MRO, State Howard 34-36H, Bailey, t6/10; cum 175K 7/21; compared to many other MRO Bailey wells this one is struggling;

Clearing Out The In-Box -- December 18, 2021

NFL starts postponing games due to Covid-19. Link here

NOG: link here for the NOG non-op model:

  • low G&A that scales with bolt-ons
  • low competition for deals

US oil demand: surges; hits all-time records; link here.

  • this story has been told many, many times this past week;
  • gets no air time in the evening news according to others; I don't watch the evening news;
  • no air time? It's not the Greta narrative faux environmentalists want to hear;
  • the surge in crude oil demand comes before the airlines are back to full capacity, full demand;
  • demand , on a four-week basis, hit an all-time high last week. Link here

Congestion at the port, link here:

  • containers actually reaching the terminal and being off-loaded has plummeted since Brandon intervened;
  • at the time Brandon intervened, there were 60 cargo ships anchored off-shore; now there are 102 container vessels waiting for berths in Los Angeles and Long Beach
  • unloadings have dropped 14% month/month (November/October)
  • unloadings have dropped 13.2% year/year (2021/2020)
  • smoke and mirrors: for the year, 2021 will be better than 2020, but the import volumes were front-loaded in the first half of the year, when congestion, though significant, was less severe than it is now -- after Brandon interceded
  • November, 2021, after Brandon interceded:
    • capacity (ships anchored off shore): has increased
    • unloadings have decreased
  • November, 2021:
    • at the beginning of the month: 637,329 TEUs (a measure of capacity)
    • at the end of the month: 745,305 TEUs
  • once containers get unloaded at the terminal, it's call dwell time, until they are loaded on rail or truck for movement;
    • dwell time by rail has dropped from a high of 13.5 days this summer (2021) to just two days, the lowest since pre-Covid; this is from the port's spokesperson; it needs to be fact-checked and definitions provided; a drop from 13.5 days to two days seems almost impossible; if not, investors, take note.

Coal, link here.

  • before we get started: whatever happened to "clean coal"? asking for a friend;
  • as noted earlier, this is the story of the week, and it is going to be the biggest untold energy story for 2021;
  • IEA: amount of electricity generated by coal -- worldwide -- will hit a record high in 2021, and another record in 2022
  • coal-generated electricity soared 9% in 2021 to an all-time high of 10,350 terawatt-hours
  • exacerbated by decommissioning oil- and gas-fired power plants, ironically resulting in an energy crisis worldwide
  • the economic rebound coincided with these policy changes
  • after two years of declines, coal use in 2020 (sic) is set to jump 9%; link here:
    • biggest increases by the following:
      • US: 20%
      • UK: 20%
      • India: 12%
      • China: 9%

UK energy crisis, link here:

  • natural gas and coal now accounting for 60 - 70% of total power generation;
  • this is before the cold winter weather arrives next week;
  • wind? Producing 0.77 GW out of a total demand of 40.4 GW.

Auto sales plummet worldwide, link here.

  • this comes at a time when auto manufacturers desperately need the cash to advance their EV-revolution; the quarterly and annual reports could be disasterous
  • European auto stocks are on watch heading into Friday's cash session in the U.S., after ugly November sales data was released from across the pond.
  • new registrations plunged 17% in November, marking the fifth month in a row where the region's auto market contracted, according to Bloomberg Friday morning.
  • new car registrations came in at 864,119, the worst number since the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association started tracking figures in 1993, the writeup says.

Saudi Aramco: From Shubham Garg, link here:

  • drilling costs are down 70%;
  • completion costs are down 90%;
  • productivity is up 500%
  • Garg: even with the above, $70 billion cost to generate $8.6 billion of annual net income results in a project that doesn't even pay out on NPV5 (NPV definition).

Saudi Arabia: Prince MBS takes the reigns; new leadership coincides almost exactly with what is now going on in London;

Covid-19, NYC, link here:
cases hit an all-time high, on a daily basis, this past week: 20,000 new cases in one day

ROCE: definition over at Investopedia.

The Bountiful Bailey -- December 18, 2021

See this post from January 21, 2021.

There are seven permits / locations on that pad. How are those wells doing now. It should be noted that the parent well, #16459, is off line.

Update on the seven locations:

  • 37996, loc/drl, MRO, Christoph 41-4H, Bailey,
  • 37997, drl, MRO, Phillip USA 41-4TFH, Bailey,
  • 38087, drl, MRO, Weidner USA 31-4TFH, Bailey,
  • 38085, drl, MRO, Delores USA 31-4H, Bailey,
  • 38084, PNC, MRO, Opal USA 21-4H, Bailey,
  • 38083, PNC, MRO, Baisch USA 21-4TFH, Bailey.

The parent well, went off line 10/21:

  • 16459, 457, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 619K 10/21. Production jumped 30x in late 2017, from FracFocus: fracked 5/26/17 - 6/12/17; look how small this frack was, 4.5 million gallons of water; 87% water by mass; sand, 12.3% by mass;:
BAKKEN10-20173129014287311159736537517831175
BAKKEN9-20173032893331641365441385655534659
BAKKEN8-20173118678184571494523587335620047
BAKKEN7-20172929243292222040036800332233317
BAKKEN6-201716165411640464252081786919855
BAKKEN5-2017100130000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-2017102746961352180176
BAKKEN2-2017289439182537720605
BAKKEN1-201731108113932908750695
BAKKEN12-20163011839232957610464
BAKKEN11-2016269459012486080356
BAKKEN10-201631122013503087850468
BAKKEN9-2016301134874304766194271
BAKKEN8-2016183532329732015527
BAKKEN7-20163110621141275715126289

Four points can be made looking at the MRO wells in the Bailey oil field:

  • not only is this not atypical;
  • it's likely to be the norm for MRO wells in this field; and,
  • there's no suggestion these wells won't be refracked a third or fourth time; or,
  • re-entered to lengthen them to recover orphaned oil along the section lines.

Administratively, Bakken operators capture the orphaned well with overlapping 2560-acre wells, but geologically / production-wise they do not. Fracking is only optimal to about 50 feet (radius), and definitely recedes even more quickly at the toe.

MRO Wells In Bailey Oil Field, Permits "Below" 20000 -- December 17, 2021

These Marathon oil permits in Bailey oil field are all "below" the file number of 20,000:

NDIC File Number

Status Date

Location

Name

Comments

15854

12/15/2017

SWSE 22-146-94

FEDORA 34-22H

244K

16327

7/15/2018

SWSW 21-146-94

BENZ 14-21H

365K

16365

9/15/2019

NWNE 27-146-94

RECKARD 31-27H

295K

16372

3/15/2020

SWSE 33-146-94

KLATT 34-33H

166K — off line

16459

6/15/2017

LOT 1 4-146-94

OSCAR STOHLER 41-4H

619K — off line

16582

7/5/2007

NENW 2-145-94

KNUTSON 21-2H

152K

16611

9/27/2007

NENW 29-146-94

CARLSON 21-29H

476K

16654

9/15/2019

SWSE 12-146-94

BUEHNER 34-12H

458K

16666

10/16/2008

SESE 19-146-94

BOB TUHY 44-19H

490K

16677

7/15/2017

SWSW 8-146-94

BECK 24-8H

253K

16704

5/15/2017

SWSE 32-146-93

DARCY 34-32H

472K

16726

5/15/2019

SESW 21-146-94

BENZ 24-21H

327K

16729

11/9/2007

SESE 8-146-93

VIHON 44-8H

393K

16735

6/15/2019

SWSW 8-146-94

BECK 14-8H

560K

16736

2/15/2019

NENW 25-146-94

BILL CONNOLLY 21-25H

472K

16753

6/13/2017

SWSE 34-146-93

REPP 34-34H

427K

16758

7/15/2018

LOT 3 4-144-94

SCHOLLMEYER 21-4H

166K

16764

12/16/2010

SWSE 7-145-93

KNUDSVIG 34-7H

296K

16807

2/15/2020

NWNW 18-146-94

GEORGE TUHY 11-18H

185K

16817

12/15/2019

SWSE 36-145-94

CLARENCE SCHOLLMEYER 34-36H

225K

16853

7/15/2018

SWSW 10-146-93

HANSEN RANCH 14-10H

388K

16860

6/15/2018

LOT 1 3-146-94

STOHLER 41-3H

521K

16868

2/13/2008

SESW 7-145-93

KNUDSVIG 24-7H

199K

16875

6/15/2017

SWSW 23-146-94

TROTTER 14-23H

469K

16909

5/15/2019

NENE 14-145-94

LILY REISS 41-14H

365K

16923

8/15/2017

SWSW 19-145-93

APPLEDOORN 14-19H

362K

16925

12/15/2019

SWSW 9-145-93

MARY HANSEN 14-9H

395K

16952

9/15/2017

SWSE 33-146-93

CHRISTENSEN 34-33H

534K

16964

8/15/2017

NWNW 15-146-93

VOIGT 11-15H

535K

16975

6/15/2019

SWSE 24-145-94

ANGELITA SCHOLLMEYER 34-24H

148K

16982

5/16/2008

SWSW 9-146-93

PAULSON 14-9H

468K

16993

10/15/2019

SESE 12-146-94

BUEHNER 44-12H

254K

17064

5/24/2008

SWSW 32-146-94

DAN TUHY 14-32H

456K

17107

5/15/2018

NWNW 27-146-94

PAM RECKARD 11-27H

349K — off line

17164

10/31/2008

SWSE 9-145-93

REPP TRUST 34-9H

357K

17171

6/19/2017

SWSE 8-145-93

FRED HANSEN 34-8H

462K

17181

6/15/2017

SESW 31-145-93

KEVIN BENZ 24-31H

166K

17199

1/15/2020

NENW 16-146-93

FLECKENSTEIN 21-16H

101K — IA

17216

4/15/2018

SESW 11-145-93

ALFRED HANSEN 24-11H

229K

17255

5/15/2017

SESW 31-146-93

PELTON 24-31H

562K — refrack 

17310

7/21/2008

NENE 26-146-93

ROSEMARY ECKELBERG 41-26H

184K

17315

5/15/2019

SESW 24-146-94

ONEIL 24-24H

449K

17318

12/15/2018

SWSE 23-146-93

CLIVE PELTON 34-23H

205K

17417

11/26/2008

SWSW 20-146-94

OLSON 14-20H

386K

17493

2/15/2019

SWSE 7-146-94

DAVID BECK USA 34-7H

258K

17498

12/15/2017

SWSE 11-146-94

CHIMNEY BUTTE 34-11H

545K

17501

1/15/2019

NENW 26-146-94

CONNIE CONNOLLY 21-26H

429K

17528

1/15/2019

SWSE 11-145-93

QUILL 34-11H

288K

17537

12/18/2008

SESW 7-146-94

DAVID BECK USA 24-7H

393K

17628

5/19/2017

SWSE 24-146-94

ONEIL 34-24H

567K

17797

4/15/2019

SESW 7-146-93

LAZY DE 24-7H

473K

17817

10/25/2017

NENW 14-145-94

KEMPF TRUST 21-14H

536K

17875

7/3/2009

SESW 11-145-94

LILY 24-11H

213K

17883

5/15/2019

SWSW 33-146-94

THERESA TUHY 14-33H

257K

18141

6/15/2018

NENW 17-146-93

LAZY HE 21-17H

403K

18196

5/15/2018

LOT1 5-144-94

ANDI SCHOLLMEYER 41-5H

159K

18217

3/16/2010

SESW 35-145-94

MIKE SCHOLLMEYER 24-35H

146K

18236

12/15/2019

SESE 9-146-93

PAULSON 44-9H

242K

18253

5/15/2017

NWNE 16-146-93

STATE RALPH HOWARD 31-16H

404K

18382

12/15/2018

SWSE 7-146-93

LAZY DE 34-7H

424K

18384

5/14/2010

SESW 8-146-93

GLENN ECKELBERG 24-8H

487K

18488

10/15/2018

SWSE 34-145-94

CW SCHOLLMEYER 34-34H

221K

18588

9/15/2019

SWSE 36-146-94

STATE HOWARD 34-36H

175K — off line

18681

7/15/2010

LOT 4 4-145-93

ECKELBERG FARM 24-33H

326K

18694

10/15/2019

SWSW 24-145-94

SCOTT GAUGLER 14-24H

260K

18736

4/15/2018

NENW 26-146-93

ROSEMARY ECKELBERG 21-26H

269K

18842

9/15/2017

NWNW 27-146-93

TESCHER 11-27H

549K

19116

11/21/2010

SESE 32-145-93

TRAMPE 44-32H

197K

19408

5/15/2019

NENE 18-145-93

TRINKA 41-18H

196K

19553

10/15/2019

SWSE 20-146-93

LUCY FLECKENSTEIN 34-20H

276K

Over at "wells of interest," as of this date, these MRO wells in Bailey oil field. One can see a similar phenomenon with MRO wells in Reunion oil field: