Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Four New Permits -- April 8, 2026

Locator: 50470B. 

WTI: $96.43.  Up $2 at the close; up 2% at the close. 

Active rigs: 24.

Four new permits, #42819 - #42822, inclusive:

  • Operator: Oasis;
  • Field: Elk (McKenzie County);
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for four Bonanza Federal wells, SESW 21-152-102, 
      • to be sited 337 FSL and 2090 / 2189 FWL; four-section spacing (2560 acres).

Forbes Annual Top Fifty US Colleges And Universities -- April 8, 2026

Locator: 50469IVIES. 

Link here

Of the top 25, only four are public. The rest are all private. 

There are eight "Ivies." Forbes lists "the next 20 Ivies, ten public and ten private."

Of the private, Vanderbilt is #9 or 10.

And look at this, of the ten public universities that are listed among the twenty new Ivies, The USAF Academy is #1. Neither of the other two academies even make the list. Wow.  UT-Austin comes in at #7.

By the way, it's easy to remember the eight Ivies. They each trace their heritage to the original 13 colonies.

  • In New England 
    • Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Hampshire (neither Maine nor Vermont were among the 13 original colonies)
  • In north/central Atlantic:
    • New York (2) -- Cornell and Columbia
    • New Jersey
    • Pennsylvania
  • None in the other colonies. 

So if you can name "the original 13 colonies" and you know the "big university name" in each of those colonies, you can name the eight Ivies. 

The 13 original colonies, founded between 1607 and 1733, were established along the Eastern seaboard. They are generally ordered by their founding (or initial permanent settlement) as follows: Virginia (1607), Massachusetts (1620/1630), New Hampshire (1623), New York (1624), Maryland (1634), Connecticut (1635), Rhode Island (1636), Delaware (1638), North Carolina (1663), South Carolina (1663), New Jersey (1664), Pennsylvania (1681), and Georgia (1733).

Your history lesson for the day. 

Fallout From Project EPIC FURY -- April 8, 2026

Locator: 50468EPICFURY. 

I get a kick out of comments on social media from military careerists / retirees with regard to Hegseth. One wonders if they would have the courage to say that to him directly or if any of them have / had seen combat. 


 

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Flashback

One of my favorite photos. The original photo, taken in 1983, has faded quite a bit, but now it's on digital and "saved."


From left to right, Drew, a family friend, age 4; our younger daughter, Laura, less than a year old; and her old sister, Kiri, about four years old, when we were stationed in Germany. It's hard to believe, but we set one bedroom completely aside for Lego.

What make this photo so precious: look how Laura is so focused on what her older sister is doing with her Lego pieces.  

Operation EPIC FURY -- Points That Need To Be Made -- April 8, 2026

Locator: 50467EPICFURY. 

Several points need to be made:

First, without question, this is a huge win for everyone.

This --> Operation EPIC FURY. No one got everything they wanted, but everyone got something. Even Iran. They get a chance to rebuild.

Two, Trump got his needed "off-ramp." 

Mainstream media keeps using the phrase "Trump was desperately looking for an off-ramp." He wasn't desperate at all; the Iranians were desperate and running out of time, finally settled for a two-week-cease-fire and a 10-point plan of their own that won't go anywhere. [Typo: that two-cease-fire should read "two-week cease fire."]

Agreeing to a two-week-cease-fire and a 10-point plan is standard negotiating procedure by the IRGC to save face, re-arm, and tweak their plan.

Three, "we" may have just avoided a global recession.

Four, if one is able to think strategically, Trump's actions will be described as "TECTONIC" by historians in 2040. Trump will be treated like Churchill after WWII. Exception: the Israelis will know and will be forever grateful. 

Five: for the military, lessons learned. 

No other country is getting the wartime experience that the US is getting. The Maduro extraction and the highly successful search-and-rescue of two downed US airmen were EPIC

Six: the US has the best intel agencies in the world. Much could be said. Much more cannot. 

Seven: Artemis II is getting more attention than the ceasefire -- four astronauts flying around the moon and coming home with an album full of "I Love Me" photos; other highlights:  "Outlook" failing almost immediately after launch, as well as the toilet. 

And to think we're going to Mars any time soon? With regard to flying around the moon and back:

  • four Corgis could have replaced the astronauts on this mission and they would have been cuter and more lively;
  • we did the same thing -- multiple times -- fifty years ago and landed men on the moon safely and back again six times -- Apollos 11 - 17 inclusive except #13 -- and they did the same thing these four astronauts did with a lot more excitement, nerve, and heroism -- and four Corgis could not have done what the following did, Apollo 13:
    • Commander James A. Lovell, Jr.
    • Commander Module Pilot John L. "Jack" Swigert, Jr.
    • Lunar Module Pilot Fred W. Haise, Jr.; and
    • Flight Director for getting them safely home, Gene Kranz (no, not "Jr.") 

Eight: the US learns who its allies really are. 

I'm thinking, maybe Israel is one of the few. Certainly not the UK, France, or the others that Trump himself named. Now we're getting stories NATO countries were actually helping secretly and behind the scenes. Oh, give me a break. It gets tedious.

Nine: the US military-industrial complex will rebuild the arsenal and work to make sure this never happens again (a shortage of bombs, and missile, and drones, and ....). The US drone industry is going to exceed all expectations. 

President Trump has submitted a record-setting DOD budget to Congress. 

Ten: for the time being, the Persian Gulf becomes Trump's Lake. No one will complain: not China, and that may be the most important country on that "list." Along with the GCC, of course. 

Eleven: the US is now the supplier of oil and natural gas of last resort -- Saudi Arabia can no longer be seen as the "swing producer" and certainly Qatar has lost its reputation of the most reliable provider of liquid natural gas. Iran can cut them off any time it chooses.

The US oil and gas sector, all of a sudden, become really, really important. Solar and wind energy didn't help at all in this war. 
Exhibit A: Hungary will buy more oil from the US going forward. Link here
Exhibit A: India, Venezuela. It's not as if Venezuela doesn't exist. Link here.

Twelve: coal is dead. Long live coal. 

Thirteen: a sorry state of affairs, to be sure -- the US Congress and the mainstream media.

Fourteen: say what you want, but it's now pax Americana in the Mideast, the Persian Gulf is Trump's Lake, and the new normal: the US is in charge. 

Fifteen: the firing of US Army Chief of Staff, four-star general Randy George was exactly the right thing to do. Exactly the right thing to do. 

The US Secretary of War is not there to make The New York Times editors happy; he's there, among other things, to support the men and women in the trenches and those in helicopters flying into, literally, the jaws of death. What our helicopter crews did in rescuing those airmen was incredible. You don't show your respect for those crews by suspending their fellow airmen for an inconsequential action. Randy might still have his job had he said, at the right time, "enough is enough."  

Some questions:

  • why did the Houthis not get involved?
  • why did North Korea not take advantage of the situation? 
  • even more so, why did China not take advantage of the situation? This may be the most interesting question to consider going forward when the Taiwan question comes up (again, and again, and again).
  • to what extent will the GCC re-build / enlarge / modernize their own bases to accommodate the US?
  • talk about lack of statesmen in the GCC. Quick: did Prince MBS ever say anything to the American public? That's really not a question, just an observation. 

Venture Global (VG) -- Printing Money -- WSJ -- April 8, 2026

Locator: 50466VG. 

Link here

VG could be / will be "bigger" than Qatar and Cheniere.

Venture Global is positioned for a repeat (see linked article) scenario that could boost its ambition to not only surpass Cheniere, but also overtake Qatar, the tiny Middle Eastern nation that sits on some of the world’s largest gas reserves and has become an LNG juggernaut.

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most tankers, which has clogged LNG flows, and Iran’s missiles have crippled Qatar’s facilities that liquefy and ship natural gas. [The writer forgot to mention the damage to Qatar's export terminal / liquefaction capacity in Qatar due to the war; estimates: three years to get that terminal back to "normal."]

That has turned Venture Global’s available cargoes into a hot commodity. Unlike Cheniere, which sells most of its cargoes under long-term contracts, Venture Global reserves a large share of its volumes for spot markets, where prices can fluctuate widely. 

Ford Getting Slammed On Aluminum -- Trump Not Helping -- April 8, 2026

Locator: 50465FORD. 

My hunch: President Trump preoccupied with other pressing matters.  

Link here

How did this all start? That massive fire. Or actually two first at the same plant.


This is at least the second time I'm aware that Ford has had a major problem due to the fact that it has single-source contracts with critical "stuff." Remember the "Blue Oval" shortage?

Remember That $70-Million Jet That Got Kristi Noem Fired (Among Other Things)? April 8, 2026

Locator: 50464JET. 

The government is giving it to Melania. 

I'm still laughing.

Link here

Apple: This Has To Be One Of The Most Amazing Stories Ever -- With Regard To Apple And Marketing -- The MacBook Neo -- April 8, 2026

Locator: 50463AAPL. 

Apple has a huge problem. Apple can't keep up with MacBook Neo demand. And they've run out of chips for the current Neo. They are using chips newer, high-end models that have been upgraded with new chips. Ordinarily, the older chips for these newer, high-end models would simply be trashed.

Apple is now using these high-end chips, that would otherwise be trashed for the MacBook Neo. 

The most expensive part of a laptop? The CPU?

And Apple is putting in high-end CPUs into the MaBook Neo and these chips are costing Apple nothing.

The problem: Apple will soon run out of these high-end CPUs to meet MacBook Neo demand.

Apple has three choices: none of them are good.

  • raise the price of the Neo by $100, to $699 for the base price;
  • I'm not sure what this would do except anger everyone 
  • upgrade the current Neo model with newer chips that were to be used for next year's upgraded Neo;
  • side-by-side on the shelf would be two identical-looking Neos but one would have the current (old) CPU and the other would have the upgraded (new) CPU that was scheduled to be introduced in the 2027-year model; 
  • so, Apple lowers the price on the "old" Neo that has just been introduced and brings the new Neo to market a few months (like a full year) early -- LOL  
  • simply tell folks Apple will be pausing supply of the Neo due to shortage of current CPUs. 

If you don't see the irony / humor in this, you are most likely a chatbot.

No, TSMC has shut down the production line for the chips in the current MacBook Neo and will not ope that line again.  

Link here for this story, Apple's supply and demand problem, MacBook Neo.

Link here for the 2027 upgrade:
 

Tech -- Random Update -- After Peace Breaks Out In The Mideast -- April 8, 2026

Locator: 50462TECH. 

All DHS workers will have received their first paycheck this Friday. Six weeks without pay. US Congress has still not authorized payment; current pay through executive order. This is not over. Link here.

ServiceNow: link here to wiki. A chatbot query listed ServiceNow as one of the top ten holdings for AI / Fourth Industrial Revolution for investors with a 30-year horizon. I had not heard of this comopany and the other ten are the likes of Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, etc. What's the deal with ServiceNow (ticker: NOW) and do you agree that it deserves to be on the top ten list for this sector?

My data points:

  • in dollars, very cheap -- $100 / share
  • P/E at 60: relatively cheap if it's as promising as some say
  • chart: price appreciation -- dreadfully awful over the past year
  • no dividend 

Micron: a throwaway article over at Barron's. Link here.



AAPL

 

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Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.
  • Longer version here.   
  • WTI Nearly Down A Whopping 20% Overnight -- Peace Breaking Out In The Mideast -- Natural Gas Down Over 5% -- April 8, 2026

    Locator: 50461B. 

    Pre-market, 6:50 a.m. CT the day after peace breaks out in the Mideast:
     

    This didn't age well: link here

    Link here

    Physical crude oil, global: supply surged to record highs. Repeat: global physical curde oil has surged to record high. And yet, prices have surged to recent record highs. What's driving the paradox. 

    At least 12 million barrels per day of supply—roughly 12% of global output—remains effectively shut in due to the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. That has forced refiners in Europe and Asia to bid aggressively for replacement barrels from the North Sea, Africa, and the Atlantic Basin.

    For now, the market remains defined by access to prompt barrels.

    Link here

    US crude oil inventories continue to surge; analysts again, very, very wrong.

    Most recent data:

    US inventories rose 3.719 million bbls in the week ending April 3, 2026; analysts expected an overall draw.

    In the week prior, US inventories rose an astounding million 10.263 bbls. Analysts expected an overall draw. 

    The US SPR is a different story

    So, we have discovered a new concept:

    • prompt bbls (SPR, for example);
      • spot price
      • what refiners are willing to pay right now to get crude oil 
    • and not-so-prompt bbls; 
      • complicated pricing based on short-term / long-term contracts; collars; etc.

    Tea leaves: Saudi Arabia in an existential 30-year fight with regard to crude oil.

    • the elephant in the room?
    • Venezuela. 

    Tea leaves: the most vulnerable?

    • Europe -- they may have committed economic suicide with their national policies. 

    Tea leaves: country in the catbird seat?

    • the United States; 
    • eye on Venezuela
    • publicly traded company to watch: Chevron 

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    Back to the Bakken

    WTI: $94.59. Down a whopping 16% overnight; down a whopping $18 overnight. 

    New wells reporting:

    • Thursday, April 9, 2026: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 179 for the year,
      • 41870, conf, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S516HF, 
      • 41869, conf, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S614HF, 
    • Wednesday, April 8, 2026: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 177 for the year,
      • 42311, conf, Phoenix Operating, Terry Nelson 34-27-22 4HR, 
      • 42176, conf, BR, Omlid 2-8-7 MBH,
      • 42071, conf, Phoenix Operating, Terry Nelson 34-27-22 5H-LL, 
      • 42069, conf, Phoenix Operating, Terry Nelson 34-27-22 3H, 
      • 42068, conf, Phoenix Operating, Terry Nelson 34-27-22 2H, 
      • 42067, conf, Phoenix Operating, Terry Nelson 34-27-22 1H, 
      • 41931, conf, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow 16-33-PGN S618HF,

    RBN Energy: US E&Ps stay cautious on 2026 CAPEX amidst market volatility. Link here. Archived.

    The roiling of global energy markets by war in the Middle East has, at least temporarily, magnified the importance of domestic oil output and dramatically heightened interest in production trends. As lower prices continued to erode returns for oil producers in 2025 and into early 2026, it’s no surprise that E&Ps  accentuated a cautious, discipline-first approach in their initial 2026 capex and production guidance, which targets generally lower investment and flattens production growth. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a detailed look at the 2026 forecasts by peer group and offer some far-too-early speculation about the potential industry response to the recent surge in oil prices.

    As shown in Figure 1 below, the 36 companies we follow have set 2026 capital investment of $59.1 billion (far-right blue bar and left axis), down 5% from $62.5 billion in 2025 and continuing a moderation from the recent peak in 2023. The commodity price collapse at the onset of the pandemic threatened the financial stability of a chronically overspending E&P industry that had lost the investment community's confidence. The response was drastic cuts to capital spending in 2020 and 2021, as producers strategically shifted their investment focus to maximizing shareholder returns over reserve and production growth (see Where Has All The Capex Gone?). Sustained high commodity prices allowed producers to increase drilling to offset steep shale decline rates, leading to substantial quarterly increases in investment and a total 2022 capex of $52.1 billion, up 58% over 2021 and the largest growth rate in over a decade. Inflation as well as increased organic capital outlays related to acquisition activity led to another 24% increase in 2023 investment to $64.5 billion, similar to amounts spent in pre-pandemic 2018. The restored investment over two years resulted in a 14% production gain.

    Figure 1. E&P Capex and Production, 2014-2026E. 
    Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics LLC

    Electricity Rates By State -- EIA -- Have Just Posted -- January, 2026, Data -- April 8, 2026

    Locator: 50460ELECTRICITY. 

    See also this story, posted April 27, 2026. 

    Link here

    Tag: electricity states.

    October, 2025, data was posted here back on December 29, 2025.

    New data is for January, 2026.

    In a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors.  

    Average price of electricity by state, January, 2026, data.

    There are five "sectors": residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and all sources. I generally ignore the fourth column (transportation). 

    For the larger energy-using states, the most important sector is the last column, "all sectors." 

    For tech-heavy states, most important is the third column, industrial.

    For individual Americans, I suppose, the most important column is the first column, residential.

    I ignore the outliers in this post: Alaska and Hawaii. 

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    The Highlights

    North Dakota simply has the least expensive electricity, by state, in the United States.  

    One has to spend some time to see how amazing these numbers are.

    All numbers / prices are cents / kWh -- the average price of electricity to ultimate customers by end-use sector. 

    Residential price:

    • North Dakota is the only state with a "10-handle."

    Commercial rate:

    • North Dakota is the only state with a "7-handle."

    Industrial rate:

    • North Dakota is one of only a handful of states also with a "7-handle."

    Overall price:

    • North Dakota is the only state with an "8-handle."  

    The only states / regions with a "30-handle" for residential customers:

    • New England (Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Maine) 
    • California

    Look at the Pacific contiguous, residential:

    • Washington state: 13.81 cents / kWh;
    • Oregon: 14.66;
    • California: 30.29!!! 
    Texas:
    • residential: 15.69 cents
    • commercial: 8.64 cents
      • industrial (cost to Elon Musk for his TeraFab): 7.25 cents
    • compare to California: 13.42 cents, almost double
    • overall average: 10.56 cents.

    TeraFab -- The Impossible Dream -- April 8, 2026

    Locator: 50459TERAFAB.

    AI queryTerafab one trillion watt computing power per year. How does that compare to other fabs?

    Summary

    Narrative:


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    More


    AI query: xAI Tesla Space LDCs in Texas

    Reply:

     

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    Construction Dive

    Link here