Friday, May 8, 2026

The 100-Year Dow -- For The US Investor -- One Continuous, Uninterrupted Bull Market Since 1983 -- Those Downturns Economists Call Recessions Have Been Completely Trivial And Buying Opportunities -- Only Purists Call Them A Break In The Bull Market Since 1983 -- And Most Of Us Are Not Purists -- Post May 8, 2026

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The 100-year Dow -- this may not be exactly accurate but for me it's close enough. 

Folks a lot smarter than I will talk about recessions and/or downturns in the market since -- pick your number -- I'll pick 1983 -- the US has been in one continuous bull market. There have been three significant downturns since 1983 but one can argue that all three were due to black swans in the sense that folks did not forecast those downturns twelve months earlier. 

The Third Industrial Revolution (Digital Revolution) began in the 1970s. While its technological foundations were laid earlier, this era of digitalization was defined by the widespread adoption of computers, microelectronics, and automated production (PLC/robotics) that accelerated rapidly during the late 20th century. 

Query: the third industrial revolution began in the 1970s. But I don't know when / if the third industrial revolution ended according to historians / economists. Regardless, I would argue that unlike the huge gap between the second and the third industrial revolution, the third industrial revolution -- that began in the 1970s -- never ended. It simply morphed into the fourth industrial revolution, the AI revolution. Thoughts? 

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The summary is interesting: not one American in 100 sees such a difference between the third and the fourth industrial revolution. The average American doesn't know the difference between the "computer" technologies. Computer technology is simply computer technology.
 
It will take many years for the average American to see the difference between the third and the fourth revolution. It is during these "many years" that the "well-educated" / deep reading investors will incredibly well and the gap between those who are not heavily investing and those who are is going to continue to widen. 
 
It's only going to get better and better, and more and more obvious.