This page will not be updated. The XTO Bobcat Federal wells are tracked here.
The wells, note that both are still flowing (no pump) according to the NDIC:
Link here. The lede:
Oil falls first time in 8 weeks on spread of mutant virus; US oil supplies now more than 50% above the 2010-2014 average.
That is truly incredible: US oil supplies now more than 50% above the 2010 - 2014 average. The Bakken was just hitting its stride in 2010, then pretty much peaked by 2014.
Spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) delivery in Asia jumped to a six-year high this week as lower-than-normal temperatures in key LNG importers and continued growth in China’s industrial activity boost demand.
Spot LNG prices for January delivery have jumped to over $12 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as a cold snap in parts of the major LNG importers Japan, China, and South Korea raises demand for electricity and heating.
Moreover, China’s industrial output continued to grow in November, also boosting demand for power.
The prices of LNG in Asia have recovered from less than $2/mmBtu in the spring when the winter heating season had already ended, and the pandemic created a massive oversupply of LNG globally as lockdowns heavily depressed demand for natural gas.
Wow, look how effective the new vaccine is, link here:
Futures: Since about 4:00 p.m. CT I've been following futures. The three major indices continue to climb the wall of worry, not much, but definitely trending in the "right" direction.
Futures look really, really nice right now.
And guess what? Breaking? President Trump signs the Covid-19 relief bill. It's gonna be a great Santa Claus rally. [Later: since the news broke that President Trump signed the bill, futures are moving up quickly.]
Santa Claus rally, from the internets:
The Santa Claus rally refers to the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. Since 1950, notes the Stock Trader's Almanac, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of 1.3 per cent over this period. That sounds modest, but it's one of the best seven-day periods in the year. By this definition, the current "SCR" began on/about December 23, and will run though the rest of this week, and through Monday/Tuesday, January 4 - 5, 2021, next week.Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Chinese flu watch: this is not surprising. We will see how it plays out.
By the way, this is really, really cool. If Europe doesn't want the vaccine, that will leave a lot more for the US. This is quite incredible.
For the record, since leaving the military, I've had only one vaccination -- a tetanus booster back in 2018. I retired from the USAF on July 1, 2007 -- wow, 13.5 years ago. I had more than enough vaccinations in the military to last me a lifetime. LOL. I have no plans to get any more vaccinations except the tetanus booster every ten years. I'm "giving" my vaccine to someone who needs it more than I do.
********************************
Sophia and St Thomas, Christmas, 2020
After her dad got the catamaran headed in the correct direction, Sophia took over:
Note the diversity of drivers, especially age and gender, and the watches these drivers are wearing.
Also, even more interesting / more important: look at the number of views this video has logged so far: 1,197,196 views.
Meanwhile, Daimler showcases its second-generation autonomous Freightliner Cascadia, November 13, 2020.
It was Daimler Trucks that lit the autonomous trucking fuse in North America when its revolutionary Inspiration autonomous concept truck drove itself across Nevada’s Hoover Dam in 2015.
The splashy press-reveal set off a debate that still rages today about the If, How and When merits of autonomous trucks.
Five years on, Daimler is focusing on a more deliberate, nuanced, development program that puts driver safety at the center of its autonomous trucks R&D.
At a press briefing attached to the official press reveal of the new Western Star 49X Class 8 vocational truck at the company’s proving grounds outside of Madras, Oregon, Anika Friesinger, director and project leader of DTNA’s Autonomous Vehicles program, briefed journalists on the current status of the company’s efforts and its new collaborations with Torc Robotics and Waymo.
Friesinger noted that DTNA is now refining its second-generation autonomous truck, based on its current new Cascadia Class 8 on-highway tractor. Two recent versions of the autonomous Cascadia trucks were on display at Madras, and both provided hints as to how this emerging technology will change truck designs in the coming years.
Most noticeable on the tractors were large, front bumper assemblies – similar to aluminum cattle pushers common on trucks running in areas with wild game and farm animals – and large, circular-shaped lidar clusters mounted above the cab doors on both sides of the trucks. These assemblies are essentially sensor housings, packed full of cameras, radar and lidar systems that constantly feed operational telemetry to the truck’s on-board computers, as well as to the Detroit DT automated transmission. It is worth noting that automated transmissions have evolved to become the “brains” of a modern tractor-trailer.
And autonomous technology has taken the capabilities and responsibilities handled by these vehicle systems to levels of data management and operational commands that were unimaginable a few years ago.
Pay special attention to the side signal placement at the 5:00 minute mark on the video.
By the way, does Waymo sound familiar?
From wiki:
Waymo LLC is an American autonomous driving technology development company.
It is a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc, the parent company of Google.
Waymo operates a commercial self-driving taxi service that operates in the greater Phoenix, Arizona area called "Waymo One", with Chandler, Arizona fully mapped.
In October 2020, the company expanded the service to the public, and it is the only self-driving commercial service that operates without safety backup drivers in the vehicle.
Waymo also is developing its driving technology for use in other vehicles, including delivery vans and Class 8 tractor-trailers for delivery and logistics.
More on Waymo and Daimler, press release:
Daimler Trucks and Waymo have signed a broad, global, strategic partnership to deploy autonomous SAE L4 technology.
Their initial effort will combine Waymo's industry-leading automated driver technology with a unique version of Daimler's Freightliner Cascadia, to enable autonomous driving.
Waymo brings over a decade of experience building the World's Most Experienced Driver™, having driven over 20 million miles on public roads across 25 U.S. cities and 15 billion miles in simulation.
Daimler Trucks North America, Daimler Trucks' U.S. subsidiary, parent company of the Freightliner brand and the U.S. market leader in commercial vehicle manufacturing, provides their experience in developing state of the art Class 8 vehicles.
Both Waymo and Daimler Trucks share the common goal of improving road safety and efficiency for fleet customers. The autonomous Freightliner Cascadia truck, equipped with the Waymo Driver, will be available to customers in the U.S. in the coming years. Waymo and Daimler Trucks will investigate expansion to other markets and brands in the near future.
From 2018, "EV truck excitement is off the chart, all roads lead to Amazon," right on schedule:
Western Star.
Daimler unveils electric Freightliner Cascadia. June 6, 2018.
Daimler Trucks will launch a full line of electric trucks and buses starting with small scale pilot programs later this year and ramping up to full-scale production by 2021.
The company unveiled a nearly silent, electric version of its flagship Freightliner Cascadia heavy-duty truck at the Portland International Raceway during a meeting with Wall Street analysts and investors in Portland, Oregon, Tuesday (2018).
Not the kind of truck driver with whom I'm familiar (her dog, by the way, is named, "Dakota." Wow I need to take another road trip. LOL. I've just added another YouTube subscription. She has a "Corky," also. "Lucky." This is a must-watch video -- right to the end.
Updates
January 3, 2021: demand boosts average price for used Class 8 trucks in November, 2020. Link here.
Original Post
Graphic:
See also: Daimler Freightliner Cascadia.
***************************************
Vans
Class 8 trucks aren't the only "thing" in high demand.
July 10, 2020: we should have seen it coming. Last summer. Amazon begins rolling out bigger UPS and FedEx-style delivery trucks. Link here.
The world's largest online retailer ordered more than 2,200 heavy-duty Utilimaster "walk-in" delivery trucks from Shyft Group, SHYF.O, a Michigan-based specialty vehicle company, an Amazon spokeswoman told Reuters. The company declined to say how many of the vehicles have been sent to Amazon delivery contractors, or where they would be deployed.
Amazon is under pressure to make good on one- and two-day deliveries promised to customers who subscribe to its $119 annual Prime service. Orders for food, computers, toys and exercise equipment surged after states issued stay-at-home orders to battle the pandemic, overwhelming Amazon’s network and adding days and even weeks to delivery times.
November 30, 2020: if you missed the July story, we saw it again last month. FedEx, UPS can't get enough vans to keep up with delivery rush. Link here.
Urged by the couriers to purchase any vans they can scrounge up, leasing companies are dipping into the used market. Added demand in the rental market “is creating shortages,” a UPS spokesman said by email. FedEx is even paying a stipend to its contractors to offset the extra cost of renting.
“If there’s a cargo van out there, we’re trying to buy it,” said Brendan Keegan, chief executive officer of Merchants Fleet, which provides vehicles to package delivery companies. It expects to have 15,000 vans out for lease at year’s end, up from 6,000 a year earlier.
First things first: if I recall correctly, the "traditional" definition for a recession required two quarters of negative GDP growth.
Next: see this post. You can assume Target and Walmart are not standing by watching this build-out go unmatched.
Which brings us to the question of the day: how is all that product getting to the warehouses and then to the customer? The product isn't getting there by itself. See this post.
After that question, comes the second question: what else is driving this? Historically truck manufacturers wait until the outcome of a presidential election to decide when / if to increase orders. This year's election was held November 3, 2020. Manufacturers know taxes will be going up in 2021.
************************************
Railroads
Railroads slashed jobs in November to lowest in decades. Link here.
As is the case with many jobs on this list, improved technology and automation will make locomotive firers all but obsolete. Positive train control, or PTC, is a system of computers that communicate with each other to make train travel safer. The system is becoming widely used on American railways and is automating many aspects of locomotive firers’ jobs.
“When you go to work now, it’s like going into a funeral home,” Hollandsworth said. “What three people used to do, one person is doing now.”
Automation holds great promise for the future of railroad safety and efficiency. Today, automation of inspection technology and Positive Train Control (PTC) has started to deliver on its great promise to reduce the impact of human error and go beyond human limitations to make railroad operations safer and more efficient.
Recently, an advanced algorithm analyzed the track alignment — known as track geometry — of more than 1,500 curves in track in just a few hours, whereas it would have taken a team of four people 10 months to manually complete the same task.
Today, all Class I railroads use some sort of automated technology for inspections to supplement the manual inspections required by federal regulation. With increased use enabled by next generation technology and modifications to federal regulation, railroads will be able to conduct safety inspections more frequently, detect more flaws more reliably and respond more quickly while keeping workers out of harm’s way.
Santa Claus rally: last five days of December and first two days of January.
The twelve days of Christmas, from wiki, December 25 - January 5, inclusive.
In 567, the Council of Tours "proclaimed the twelve days from Christmas to Epiphany as a sacred and festive season, and established the duty of Advent fasting in preparation for the feast."
Christopher Hill, as well as William J. Federer, states that this was done in order to solve the "administrative problem for the Roman Empire as it tried to coordinate the solar Julian calendar with the lunar calendars of its provinces in the east."
Epiphany - Three Kings' Day: everything is variable --
************************************
Santa Claus Rally
Retail sales: up 3% this holiday season.
Recession: if I recall, "traditional" definition required two quarters of negative GDP growth.
The discussion of batteries will center around five or six issues, at least.
*************************************
New York City -- Op-Ed
Updates
December 28, 2020: a reader replies.
Original Note
New York City is about to buy 45 seconds of back-up power for one-half billion dollars. And no one seems to care. Mention this to a New Yorker and at best you will get a shrugged shoulder. Guaranteed.
New York won't be able to buy its way out of blackouts -- Watts Up With That -- December 25, 2020. Link here.
New York City will soon be home to the world’s biggest utility-scale battery system, designed to back up its growing reliance on intermittent renewables. At 400 MWh this batch of batteries will be more than triple the 129 MWh world leader in Australia.
NYC presently peaks at around 32,000 MW needed to keep the lights on.
So for reliability we need, say, seven days of backup, which is 168 hours. Here’s the math:
32,000 MW x 168 hours = 5,376,000 MWh of stored juice needed to just make it. Mind you for normal reliability we usually add 20% or so.
400 MWh is not “significant scale. It is infinitesimal scale. Nothing. Nada. Might as well not exist.
[I estimate 45 seconds of backup power from the facility. Someone correct me if I’m wrong~CR]
Cost: how much will this 45 seconds of backup power cost? If you are a New Yorker, I hope you are sitting down.
Cost: how much will this 45 seconds of backup power cost? One-half billion dollars.
So, what would it cost to reliably back up wind power for NYC? $8 trillion.
We have no idea how to make 5 million MWh of batteries work together. The tiny 400 will be a challenge. It may not be possible.
Electricity monthly update, October, 2020, EIA: link here.
Daily peak prices, per MWh:
But then look at this, where California experienced its hottest October on record, average temp:
One more reason why California companies are moving to Texas.
Narrative:
Most electricity systems experienced peak demand levels typical of shoulder months with mild weather. The highest daily peak demand in October for New England (ISONE), New York State (NYISO), and the Mid-Atlantic (PJM) remained below 56% of each systems’ all-time peak. In the Midwest, daily peak demand in MISO remained below 62% of that systems’ all-time peak. Southern Company stayed below 67% of its all-time peak.
These low demand levels present great opportunities for system operators to perform maintenance this month in-between the higher demand summer and winter seasons.
Progress Florida and Texas (ERCOT) demand levels continued to be more summer-like as temperatures remain elevated in those areas deeper into Autumn.
The highest demand levels’ relative to normal occurred in California, where the CAISO system hit 85% of its all-time maximum level as California experienced its hottest October on record.
The wells:
The graphics:
The wells:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2020 | 16832 | 56214 |
| 9-2020 | 13976 | 23537 |
| 8-2020 | 17283 | 27674 |
| 7-2020 | 26410 | 35927 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2020 | 11218 | 7294 |
| 9-2020 | 110 | 0 |
| 8-2020 | 16727 | 14947 |
| 7-2020 | 42123 | 11059 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2020 | 22117 | 41405 |
| 9-2020 | 23382 | 33004 |
| 8-2020 | 17384 | 27632 |
| 7-2020 | 38591 | 62240 |
| 6-2020 | 3181 | 0 |
March 1, 2021: 3 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 59 for the year.
Sunday, February 28, 2021: 23 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 56 for the year.
Saturday, February 27, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.
Friday, February 26, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.
Thursday, February 25, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.
Wednesday, February 24, 2021: 16 for the month, 49 for the quarter, 49 for the year.
Tuesday, February 23, 2021: 15 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 48 for the year.
Monday, February 22, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.
Sunday, February 21, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.
Saturday, February 20, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.
Friday, February 19, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.
Thursday, February 18, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.
Wednesday, February 17, 2021: 13 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year.
Tuesday, February, 16, 2021: 11 for the month, 44 for the quarter, 44 for the year.
Monday, February 15, 2021: 10 for the month, 43 for the quarter, 43 for the year.
Sunday, February 14, 2021: 8 for the month, 41 for the quarter, 41 for the year.
Saturday, February 13, 2021: 7 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 40 for the year.
Friday, February 12, 2021: 7 for the month, 40 for the quarter, 40 for the year.
Thursday, February 11, 2021: 6 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 39 for the year.
Wednesday, February 10, 2021: 6 for the month, 39 for the quarter, 39 for the year.
Tuesday, February 9, 2021: 5 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 38 for the year.
Monday, February 8, 2021: 5 for the month, 38 for the quarter, 38 for the year.
Sunday, February 7, 2021:
Saturday, February 6, 2021:
Friday, February 5, 2021:
Thursday, February 4, 2021: 4 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 37 for the year.
Wednesday, February 3, 2021: 3 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 36 for the year.
Tuesday, February 2, 2021: 3 for the month, 36 for the quarter, 36 for the year.
Monday, February 1, 2021: 2 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 35 for the year.
Sunday, January 31, 2021: 33 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year.
Saturday, January 30, 2021:: 33 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year.
Friday, January 29, 2021: 33 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year.
Thursday, January 28, 2021: 33 for the month, 33 for the quarter, 33 for the year.
Wednesday, January 27, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.
Tuesday, January 26, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.
Monday, January 25, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.
Sunday, January 24, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.
Saturday, January 23, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.
Friday, January 22, 2021: 32 for the month, 32 for the quarter, 32 for the year.
Thursday, January 21, 2021: 31 for the month, 31 for the quarter, 31 for the year.
Wednesday, January 20, 2021: 30 for the month, 30 for the quarter, 30 for the year.
Tuesday, January 19, 2021: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 26 for the year.
Sunday, January 17, 2021: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 22 for the year.
37644, loc/drl, XTO, Kulczk 43X-17BXC, 33-061-04753, Alkali Creek,
Saturday, January 16, 2021: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 21 for the year.
Friday, January 15, 2021: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 19 for the year.
Thursday, January 14, 2021: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 18 for the year.
Wednesday, January 13, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 17 for the year.
Tuesday, January 12, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 16 for the year.
Monday, January 11, 2021: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 16 for the year.
Sunday, January 10, 2021: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 14 for the year.
Saturday, January 9, 2021: 13 for the month, 13 for the quarter, 13 for the year.
Friday, January 8, 2021: 8 for the month, 8 for the quarter, 8 for the year.
Thursday, January 7, 2021: 6 for the month, 6 for the quarter, 6 for the year.
Wednesday, January 6, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 5 for the year.
Tuesday, January 5, 2021: 5 for the month, 5 for the quarter, 5 for the year.
Monday, January 4, 2021: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 3 for the year.
Sunday, January 3, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year.
Saturday, January 2, 2021: one for the month, one for the quarter, one for the year.
Friday, January 1, 2021: one for the month, one for the quarter, one for the year.
Monday, January 4, 2021:
36706, conf, Hess, BL-Amelia-156-95-1514H-8,
Sunday, January 3, 2021:
36381, conf, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-5,
Saturday, January 2, 2021:
None.
Friday, January 1, 2021:
36250, conf, Slawson, Osprey Federal 3-26-29H,
Thursday, December 31, 2020:
None. There was no June 31, 2020.
Wednesday, December 30, 2020:
36251, conf, Slawson, Osprey Federal 2-26-29H,
Tuesday, December 29, 2020:
36681, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-10,
36252, conf, Slawson, Osprey Federal 2-26-29H,
Monday, December 28, 2020:
36253, conf, Slawson, Osprey Federal 4-26-29TFH,
Sunday, December 27, 2020:
None.
