Locator: 48503EVS.
Is this worth TWO exclamation marks?
EVs are tracked here.
Friday, February 7, 2025
First Time In >Two Weeks That I Tuned Into CNBC This Morning -- To Catch The Jobs Report -- February 7, 2025
Locator: 48502JOBS.
They're still talking about that "second rate cut." It gets tedious.
Whatever the number is, by 10:00 a.m. the report will have been forgotten by the market.
The number:
- 143,000: gain in non-farm payrolls; below expectations of 169,000 but the figure will be revised one month from now.
- 256,000 --> 307,000: January revision; huge jump.
Unemployment rate falls to 4.0% -- exceeding every analyst's estimate. "Every" analyst said the
34.1 hours = work week. Has been at 34.3 "forever." Bit move.
U3: 4.0%! Huge.
Labor force participation increased.
Absolutely no reason to cut rates; unemployment numbers dropping.
Steve Liesman:
- raises the issue of what role has immigration played in the US economy
- did unemployment rate drop now that illegal immigrants are dropping out of the work force
- did participation rate increase now that illegal immigrants are dropping out of the work force
Market slightly more negative after numbers came in, but not much.
Everything else: blah, blah, blah.
Essentially full employment. Holy mackerel -- U-1 at 1.5% -- how can it get any better?
- Unemployment: Table A-15:
Participation rate, link here. This certainly suggests a robust US economy:
Apple, Broadcom, And Skyworks -- February 7, 2025
Locator: 48501AAPL.
Apple suppliers, this is an old screenshot, shown many times on the blog. Search Apple iPhone suppliers.
Why it's important: link here.
I invested in Skyworks for a very short time. I forget the time frame. Something -- I've long forgotten -- suggested that it would be best to exit that Skyworks position. That was some years ago. One can do a "Skyworks" word search if interested. I'm not. I've moved on.
AVGO has become a core holding for me.
I wasn't going to post this story when this story first broke -- apparently I wasn't interested. Today, I took a second look -- now, it's worth posting.
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am
inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front
of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it
comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer:
this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial,
job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read
here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- Longer version here.
TGIF -- February 7, 2025
Locator: 48499B.
Sanctuary cities: Trump is doing a great job working the "sanctuary city" issue. The one thing he could be doing: "incentivize" criminals to move to sanctuary cities. Advertise at bus stations, railroad stations. Even offer free transportation (rail, bus) to "sanctuary cities."
GDPNow, link here:
ISO-NE:
My favorite chart, link here:
AMZN: earnings.
AMZN: some folks were making a big deal about market's response after earnings call --
BABA, link here:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $71.13.
New wells:
- Sunday, February 9, 2025: 12 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 58 for the year,
- 22204, conf, BR, Manchester 24-9MBH,
- Saturday, February 8, 2025: 11 for the month, 57 for the quarter, 57 for the year,
- 40427, conf, Grayson Mill, Alfred North 17-15 2H,
- 38359, conf, Petro-Hunt, Sherven Trust 153-95-27A-26-1HS,
- the Charlson oil field is tracked here but has not been updated in a long time.
- map here;
- 36622, conf, BR, West Kellogg 2A-UTFH,
- Friday, February 7, 2025: 8 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 54 for the year,
- 40438, conf, Enerplus, Strength 150-94-06B-18H,
RBN Energy: how would Midwest refiners deal with a 10% tariff on Canadian crude?
The looming threat of a 10% tariff on U.S. imports of Canadian crude oil hasn’t just angered Canadians — and understandably so, we might add. It’s also put a spotlight on PADD 2 — the Midwest/Great Plains region — whose pipelines transport the vast majority of Canadian exports and whose 25 refineries (combined capacity 4.3 MMb/d) are, in many cases, significant consumers of heavy and light crudes from up north. Put simply, to assess the impacts of the still-possible trade war on U.S. refiners and producers on both sides of the border, you need to understand PADD 2’s crude oil supply/demand balance and the options Midwestern refineries that currently run Canadian crude would have if a tariff were put in place. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss these dynamics.
The monthlong truce between President Trump and Prime Minister Trudeau is just that: an agreement to pause a possible trade war for a few weeks to give both sides an opportunity to come to a longer-term meeting of the minds. Trump has famously said that “tariff” is his favorite word, so assuming a 10% levy on imports of Canadian crude is off the table would be a mistake. All bets are still off, and even if things are settled once and for all, Canadians might reasonably ask, “Why the heck would the U.S. turn on its best friend like that?”
Figure 1. PADD 2 Sub-Districts and Refineries. Source: RBN
Note: Refineries represented by colored dots
The Big Picture
Before we discuss the specifics of how a sampling of PADD 2 refineries might react to a 10% tariff on U.S. imports of Canadian crude oil, we’ll take a quick big-picture look at the region. Stretching from North Dakota to Oklahoma to Ohio, PADD 2 is, first of all, a crude oil production powerhouse (~1.8 MMb/d in recent months), led by the Bakken Shale (~1.2 MMb/d) in the northwestern corner of the PADD’s Northern sub-district (medium-green area in Figure 1 above), the mature Anadarko Basin across Oklahoma in the Southern sub-district (dark-green area), and even burgeoning supplies of condensate (~100 Mb/d) from the Utica play in eastern Ohio, situated near the eastern edge of the Eastern sub-district (light-green area). Additionally, PADD 2 currently receives ~2.5 MMb/d of Canadian imported crude oil — mostly via Enbridge’s massive Mainline system and South Bow’s Keystone Pipeline — but we estimate that about one-fifth of that, or ~500 Mb/d, passes through the Midwest/Great Plains region on its way to refineries and export docks in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast). PADD 2 also receives inflows from the Permian and other production areas in PADD 3 (~750 Mb/d, on average, in the second half of 2024) and the Denver Julesburg (DJ) and other basins in PADD 4 (Rockies; ~930 Mb/d in the second half of 2024), though a good bit of the latter simply flows through PADD 2 (most of it through Cushing) to the Gulf Coast.
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