Wednesday, March 27, 2019

One Last One And Then Calling It A Day -- Sempra In The News -- March 27, 2019, T+84, Part 5

Link here to S&P Global -- thank goodness Donald J. Trump is president and not Barack or Hillary.

Sempra eyes opportunities to expand North American LNG export potential. From the link:
Sempra Energy is considering renegotiating regasification contracts at a Mexican terminal where it wants to add liquefaction capabilities to allow a potential increase in the LNG export capacity currently envisioned there.
The effort reflects the San Diego-based utility and energy infrastructure developer's confidence in the direction of commercial talks it is having with potential offtakers to support the LNG project at Energia Costa Azul in Baja California. It also is building market interest in a proposed export terminal in Texas and a second phase at the Louisiana terminal where it is preparing to start up its first train.
Making America great. Okay, have to take a break.

Good luck to all. 

US Gulf Coast: Joins Russia, OPEC, And US As Major Export "Country" -- March 27, 2019, T+84, Part 4

It looks like we have Saudi Arabia, Russia, the US, and now .... drum roll ... the US Gulf Coast. The US gulf coast is "set to become a net crude oil exporting region for the first time in a quarterly basis, signaling a shift in global oil flows."

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the US, and now, the US Gulf Coast. Making America great again. Data points:
  • 4x expansion
    • 2017: one VLCC loading at a gulf coast port every six days
    • 2018: four VLCC's every six days -- one word -- wow! One phrase: making America great.
    • 2019: 53 VLCC over 77 days, which comes out to about 4 VLCC's every six days;
  • buyers?
    • South Korea: now #1 of US oil
    • China
    • Canada
  • How big a deal? Right now, as we speak --
    • 50 million bbls of US crude moving east
    • 23 VLCCs
    • 3 Suezmax tankers
  • US gulf coast ports
    • only one can currently handle VLCCs directly: the LOOP
    • Ingleside, Texas, has been expanded, and soon able to handle VLCCs directly
    • another project, COLT, a larger one, is in the planning stage in Texas
      • $800 million 
    • awaiting regulatory approval (thank goodness Trump is president, and not Obama -- that's not political; that's reality)
    • seven more export terminal expansion projects planned
Meanwhile, there are suggestions that this story was started / spread by Saudi Arabia: impurities in American light oil force South Korea to reject US imports.
Metroplex Dining

Our favorite restaurants:
  • Sushi: Kura in Plano; May could go every day; I could go two or three times/week, but on any given day, it's also my favorite and go-to restaurant; thank goodness it's a 20-minute freeway drive, otherwise it would be a daily lunch destination
  • Brio: Italian in Southlake, TX -- once a week if I didn't feel so guilty about the "cost"; so, once every two weeks
  • Copeland's: New Orleans/Creole fare, also in Southlake, TX, at Hilton's -- at least once a month, but probably not the Sunday buffett
  • Cheesecake factory: not for me; everyone in the family loves it; for cheesecake, I prefer Copeland's
  • Hopdoddy's: only place I will go for "hamburgers"; I get the sushi-grade tuna burger
  • the one place I won't go: Applebee's -- amazing how they haven't figured out the "service" thing

It's a long story and an embarrassing story, but bottom line is I needed a new keyboard for an older Apple laptop.

I brought it to the Apple store in Southlake on Monday, two days ago. In less than ten minutes, I was seen, and given a quote. I gave them the computer and was told it would be "serviced off-site." I expected two weeks turnaround time.

Today, at noon, I got an e-mail alerting me the computer was ready to be picked up; less than 48 hours from time of drop-off. The Apple person said they would notify me if anything needed fixing other than the agreed-upon quote.

No notification. It turns out they don't return a computer unless every item is checked out and every item that needs "fixing" is corrected. And they don't charge more than the original quote.

Wow, they returned a practically new computer, including a new keyboard (my only concern) along with a new logic board, and a new aluminum case (I had dropped it years ago and it had a small ding in it -- never caused any operational problem).

Yes, it was expensive, but it was the agreed-upon estimate. Maybe it would have been better to put the money toward a new computer, but for half the price, I got a brand new computer as far as I was concerned.

Yes, again, I paid top dollar for the "fix" and I doubt most people would have been happy, but I was thrilled. We're talking a dollar a day for a year. I have never been disappointed with Apple. But it is expensive.

[By the way, I didn't need the computer. I have a new laptop and an old laptop. The latter meets my needs but the new laptop is so cool. So now, Sophia has a computer she can call her own.

What a great country.

On another note, it's "fun" to observe the personalities of the Apple staff. The more "challenging" the problem, the more "qualified" the Apple associate. I dealt with four different Apple associates over the past four days and they were all incredibly good and I could tell they were at their particular "station" because they had the right skill set.

By the way: I'm so glad everything was backed up.

March 27, 2019, T+84, Part 3

Link here for past stories on SABIC.

Apparently it's official: Saudi Aramco has merged with SABIC. Well, I guess -- it depends on the definition of "merge." Data points:
  • Aramco has acquired a 70% stake in SABIC
  • estimated value of its investment: $69 billion -- let's call it $70 billion
  • Aramco acquired the funds from the Saudi Public Investment Fund
  • can you say "three-card Monte"?
  • SABIC: one of the most defensive, non-cyclical segments
Whatever, time to move on.

And we move on to Canada. Apparently, Imperial isn't waiting for pipelines to be built. LOL. Canad's Imperial Oil "has managed" to restart CBR from Alberta. Apparently "economic" under current conditions. If western Canadian oil is "economic" under current conditions, one wonders just how good the operators in the Bakken are doing.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Chess: Barnes and Noble's Busy Book sets -- the Norwegian trolls vs the Coco family. I played Coco. Sophia played the trolls. Three guesses, who won? The first two guesses don't count.

When It Rains, It Pours -- Hard To Keep Up With All That Is Happening This Week -- March 27, 2019, T+84, Part 2

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Open-book test: I started suggesting this several months ago. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. From twitter today:

Maxine: I'll fact-check this later tonight but I heard on talk radio today that Mad Maxine is starting to walk back her comments about "impeaching Trump," suggesting that, according to her, it was only a small group talking about "impeaching Trump."
The fact that Nancy Pelosi was dialing back "impeachment" talk two months ago, one wonders if she got advance information from Mueller. I was in the USAF for 30 years and worked among the highest level of the DOD hierarchy/bureaucracy the last nine years of my life, and have a pretty good feeling for how these things play out. For a two-year investigation of a president, Mueller had to start letting folks know several weeks before, perhaps several months before, the report was released, that it was going to be a big nothing-burger. Had he hinted to Nancy Pelosi that major crimes were committed, it's very possible Pelosi's comments on impeachment would have been very different. Re-constructing the events of the past six months becomes curiouser and curiouser.
Ratings: I can hardly wait for Drudge to report the cable news ratings this week.

Brexit: all done at the end of this week? The tea leaves suggest so. 

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog -- Feedback From Readers -- March 27, 2019


May 2, 2019: an update.

March 28, 2019: an update. 

Original Post 

A reader sent me this earlier today. From the reader:
I thought you might enjoy this example of the Bakken being awesome.
More Rolf wells were recently drilled and fracked which produced this result on an existing well. This month it it produced 23,432. The new Rolf and Springfield wells have been capped, perhaps awaiting the new gas plant being built on section 16 in Brooklyn Township.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphic:

Other wells in the graphic: (I'll complete the data later)
  • 34768, conf, CLR, 33-105-04751, Helena 8-7HSL1, Brooklyn,
  • 34694, conf, CLR, 33-105-04731 Springfield 2-8HSL, Brooklyn,
  • 34693, conf, CLR, 33-105-04730 Springfield 3-8H1, Brooklyn,
  • 34692, conf, CLR, 33-105-04729, Springfield 4-8H, Brooklyn,  
  • 34691, conf, CLR, 33-105-04728, Springfield 5-8H1, Brooklyn,
  • 34690, conf, CLR, 33-105-04727, Springfield 6-8H1, Brooklyn, 

  • 34698, conf, CLR, 33-105-04735, Rolf ... , Brooklyn, 
  • 34697, conf, CLR, 33-105-04734, Rolf ... , Brooklyn,
  • 34696, conf, CLR, 33-105-04733, Rolf ... , Brooklyn,
  • 34695, conf, CLR, 33-105-04732, Rolf ... , Brooklyn,

Oh-Oh -- Has Anyone Thought This Through? -- March 27, 2019

Link here.

Hess With Four New Permits -- March 27, 2019

Wow, wow, wow: this is the annual output of the world's largest battery factory -- annual -- world's largest factory --  all that talk about  renewable energy? Sort of makes me think that the Mueller report is trivial in comparison -- did we say that this was annual?

The annual output of Tesla’s Gigafactory, the world’s largest battery factory, could store three minutes’ worth of annual U.S. electricity demand.
It would require 1,000 years of production to make enough batteries for two days’ worth of U.S. electricity demand. Meanwhile, 50–100 pounds of materials are mined, moved, and processed for every pound of battery produced.
By the way, we will get back to this later, but apparently the Jerry Brown requirement for solar panels on all new houses in California has killed the house-building market out there. More to follow.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6660493297

Four new permits:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Stanley (Mountrail)
  • Comments;
    Hess has permits for a 4-well RS-Harstad pad in section 9-155-91, Stanley oil field.
Six permits renewed:
  • WPX (4): four Charles Blackhawk permits in Dunn County
  • Enerplus: a Morgan permit in Dunn County
  • NP Resources: a Roosevelt permit in Billings County

The NDIC Hearing Dockets, April, 2019 Are Posted

Link here for Wednesday, April 24, 2019.

Link here for Thursday, April 25, 2019.

NDIC posts the hearing dockets here.

Dockets are tracked here.

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

These are selected cases that caught my eye. A summary of the full agenda is posted below these selected cases.

Wednesday, April 24, 2019 -- Seven Pages
Selected Cases That Caught My Eye 
27455, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, 6 wells on a standup 1280-acre drilling unit, sections 25/36-156-96; Williams County
27456, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, 5 wells on a standup 1280-acre unit, sections, 17/20-156-95; Williams County
27457, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, 12 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 5/6/7/8-154-94; Mountrail County
27467, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 8 wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 4/9-151-93; Mountrail County
27468, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 16/21-151-93; Mountrail
27470, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93, Mountrail
27471, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 28/44-146-94;
27472, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, 9 wells on each of two 1280-acre unit, sections 3/10, and sections 4/9-145-94; Dunn County
27476, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, 6 wells on a laydown 640-acre unit, portions of sections 11/12-152-93; Mountrail, McKenzie

Thursday, April 25, 2019. -- Twelve Pages 
Selected Cases That Caught My Eye 

A lot of continued cases. In fact, not much here except continued cases, commingling, pooling, and recovery of risk penalties.

27485, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken, I'll come back to this one later; to add six wells on a new 2240-acre unit; to decrease required number of wells on an existing 1920-acre unit from nine to three wells, Mountrail County
27506, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken 4 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; section 16-152-91, Mountrail County

Summary of Full Agenda
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 -- Seven Pages

27440, Petro Harvester, Northeast Foothills-Bakken, establish four 1280-acre units, one well each, Burke County
27441, Petro Harvester, Little Butte-Bakken, establish a 1280-acre unit; one well; Burke County
27442, Whiting, Foreman Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; McKenzie
27443, Lime Rock Resources, Little Knife-Bakken, establish a standup 1280-acre unit, six wells, Dunn County
27444, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; Mountrail County
27445, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, Mountrail County
27446, Hess, Beaver Lodge and/or Tioga-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, Williams County
27447, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Williams County
27448, MRO, Reunion Bay- Bakken, setback rules, Mountrail County
27449, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Dunn County
27450, Blue Appaloosa, Inc., treating plant, Dunn County
27451, Hess, pooling,
27452, Hess, pooling,
27453, Hess, pooling,
27454, Hess, pooling,
27455, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, 6 wells on a standup 1280-acre drilling unit, sections 25/36-156-96; Williams County
27456, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, 5 wells on a standup 1280-acre unit, sections, 17/20-156-95; Williams County
27457, Hess, Alkali Creek-Bakken, 12 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 5/6/7/8-154-94; Mountrail County
27458, Kraken Operating, commingling,
27459, Kraken Operating, SWD
27460, Bruin E&P, commingling,
27461, Bruin E&P, pooling,
27462, Bruin E&P, pooling,
27463: MISSING
27464, Oasis, Sand Creek-Bakken, two wells on a 2560-acre unit; McKenzie County
27465, Oasis, pooling,
27466, Oasis, SWD 
27467, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 8 wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 4/9-151-93; Mountrail County
27468, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 10 wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 16/21-151-93; Mountrail
27469, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, two wells on a 2560-acre unit; Mountrail County
27470, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakkne, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93, Mountrail
27471, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit, sections 28/44-146-94;
27472, MRO, Killdeer-Bakken, 9 wells on each of two 1280-acre unit, sections 3/10, and sections 4/9-145-94; Dunn County
27473, Whiting, commingling,
27474, Whiting, commingling,
27475, Whiting, commingling,
27476, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, 6 wells on a laydown 640-acre unit, portions of sections 11/12-152-93; Mountrail, McKenzie
27477, Whiting, Pronghorn-Bakken, four wells on each of two 1280-acre unit units; McKenzie
27478, Whiting, SWD
27479, BR, pooling,
27480, BR, pooling,
27481, Lime Rock, SWD
27482, Ledger Energy, SWD

Note: last case is Case #27482.

Thursday, April 25, 2019. -- Twelve Pages 

Note: first case is Case #27516, but it appears to be simply out of order.
A lot of continued cases. In fact, not much here except continued cases, commingling, pooling, and recovery of risk penalties.

27515, Behm Energy, temporary spacing for Nygaard well, #35395, McKenzie County
27483, Denbury Onshore, temporary spacing for Little Beaver East welll, #not provided; Bowman County, and Fallon County, Montana
27484, Enerplus, Heart Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; one well, Dunn County
27485, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken, I'll come back to this one later; to add six wells on a new 2240-acre unit; to decrease required number of wells on an existing 1920-acre unit from nine to three wells, Mountrail County
27486, Equinor, Alger-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Mountrail
27487, Kraken, Sanish-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; two wells; create two overlapping 1280-acre units, two wells; Mountrail
27488, Ballantyne, Red Rock-Spearfish pool; to rework and use the Legacy Etal Bernstein well (#21887) as a water injection well; Bottineau County
27489, RimRock, Twin Buttes-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells, Dunn County
27490, XTO, North Fork-Bakken; rule change for the Maddy Federal 24X-34B well (#32065), McKenzie
27491, CLR, Elidah-Bakken, revoke an XTO permit, Johnson Trust Federal well (#35047), McKenzie County
27492, PetroShale, Eagle Nest-Bakken, siting rules, Dunn County
27493, Equinor, commingling,
27494, Equinor, commingling,
27495, Equinor, commingling,
27496, CLR, pooling,
27497, CLR, pooling,
27498, CLR, pooling,
27499, CLR, Jim Creek-Bakken, 18 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, Dunn County: sections 6/7/18/19-146-95;
27500, CLR, commingling,
27501, CLR, commingling,
27502, CLR, SWD
27503, Newfield, pooling,
27504, Hunt, pooling,
27505, EOG, pooling
27506, Slawson, Big Bend-Bakken, 4 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, Mountrail County;
27507, Slawson, pooling,
27508, Slawson, risk penalty legalese
27509, Slawson, risk penalty legalese
27510, Slawson, risk penalty legalese
27511, Zavanna, pooling
27512, Zavanna, pooling,
27513, RimRock, Twin Buttes-Bakken, 3 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Dunn County
27514, Henry Hill Oil Services, SWD
27515, Cobra Oil & Gas, SWD

Geological Summary For This WPX Plenty Sweet Grass Well Not Yet Posted -- March 27, 2019

Geological summary not yet posted at the NDIC site; I will try to remember to follow up on this one:
  • 34928, 3,603, WPX, Plenty Sweet Grass 18-19HD, 33-053-08540. 50 stages; 8.5 million bbls, 6.4 million gallons of water; 85.7% water by mass; Squaw Creek, t2/19; cum --;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Nothing About The Bakken -- Wednesday, March 27, 2019, T+84, Part 1

Is the narrative about to change? If this was outside the mainstream, that would be one thing, but this is being reported by NBC News. Now that the Mueller report has been released, perhaps NBC News is trying to divert attention. Look at this:

We've been trying to point this out for years. Finally. 

Link here.
A major Greenland glacier that was one of the fastest shrinking ice and snow masses on Earth is growing again, a new NASA study finds.
The Jakobshavn glacier around 2012 was retreating about 1.8 miles and thinning nearly 130 feet annually. But it started growing again at about the same rate in the past two years, according to a study in Monday’s Nature Geoscience. Study authors and outside scientists think this is temporary.
“That was kind of a surprise. We kind of got used to a runaway system,” said Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland ice and climate scientist Jason Box. “The good news is that it’s a reminder that it’s not necessarily going that fast. But it is going.”
It may or may not be temporary, but when we start talking about glaciers growing at this speed, we are talking "climate," not "weather."
Box, who wasn’t part of the study, said Jakobshavn is “arguably the most important Greenland glacier because it discharges the most ice in the northern hemisphere. For all of Greenland, it is king.”
And then look at this:
The water in Disko Bay, where Jakobshavn hits the ocean, is about 3.6 degrees cooler than a few years ago, study authors said.
By the way, the "glacier" story was the second story in two days to try to divert attention from the Mueller report.

The first story was what the Chicago mayor says was a "whitewash of justice."


Exhibit A: if we have less than twelve years to get started if we want to save the earth from global warming, why did not one US senator vote to pass a simple non-binding resolution?

Not even the senator who co-sponsored the bill with Occasional-Cortex voted for the bill.

I don't think I've ever seen such a lopsided vote on anything. It looks like a few Democratic senators must have "crossed the aisle" and voted with the GOP. I don't see what the big deal was: vote "yes" and move on. It was a non-binding resolution, for heaven's sakes, and easily defended in any campaign: simply making a statement that "we" need to take action now to stop global warming. Either you believe in the scam or you don't.

Voting "present" -- at least, I guess, we know they were hard at work in Washington, DC. Not only that, but apparently it was labeled a "test vote." LOL.

By the way, in poll after poll after poll, in which respondents are asked the most pressing issue(s) facing the nation, global warming never, never, never makes the list if the poll is "open-ended." That is, the pollster does not provide a list of issues. In every poll in which Americans are simply asked to list the issue(s) that worry them most, global warming is never, never mentioned. And yes, I'm sure someone will find an example to prove me wrong.

Imagine: if any US Senator introduced any of the following non-binding resolutions, and the outcome was 57 against, and not one for it, during the noted administration. A non-binding resolution supporting:
  • access to health care insurance for all Americans: Barack Obama
  • the president's wish to be the first US president to visit China: "Tricky Dick"
  • sending a man to the moon, and safely back to earth: JFK
  • the Manhattan Project: FDR 
  • freeing the slaves: Abraham Lincoln
We can't even get a single US senator -- even the one who introduced the non-binding resolution -- to vote in support of the US doing its part to "save the earth." I find that amazing.

Fallout From The Mueller Report

Losers following the release of the Mueller report:
  • first tier losers: President Obama, Hillary Clinton
  • second tier losers: the entire US intelligence community, but particularly the three 'C's"; Comey; McCabe; and, Clapper
  • third tier loser: all by himself -- Tom Steyer
  • fourth tier losers: too many to list but includes Adam Schiff; Chelsea Clinton;
Except for sports, I have not watched television in months. Can someone tell me if Tom Steyer's "impeach Trump" ads are still playing?

The mainstream media: not among the losers. Mainstream media is all about making money and they made a lot of money off the "Russian-collusion" trope. There is no evidence to suggest that the mainstream media will change their habits.

Biggest winner on talk radio: Rush Limbaugh. 

Let's see what others are saying.

John Hinderaker over at Powerline: Democrats punt on the green new deal.
To say that it has been a tough week for the Democratic Party is an understatement. Yesterday Mitch McConnell obliged grandstanding Democrats by bringing the Green New Deal resolution up for a vote in the Senate. The Democrats regarded this as a dirty trick, evidently because they do not intend their policy proposals to be taken seriously.
The Senate vote was 57-0 against the Green New Deal. Almost all Senate Democrats voted “present,” taking a leaf from the Obama playbook. The six senators who are running for president–Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar and Kirsten Gillibrand–all co-sponsored the Green New Deal resolution, yet all voted “present.” All Republican senators voted against the resolution, joined by Democrats Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, Doug Jones and Angus King.
From Paul Mirengoff over at Powerline: less than full disclosure from the New York Times:
What’s notable about the article is how the New York Times identifies Bauer. The Times states:
Mr. Bauer is a professor of practice and distinguished scholar in residence at New York University School of Law.
That’s true as far as it goes. But for purposes of an op-ed about the Mueller investigation of alleged collusion with Russia, it doesn’t go very far.
Until May 2018, Bauer was a partner at the Perkins Coie law firm. Moreover, when Bauer left the firm, it announced that he “will maintain his representation of a number of key clients in an individual, solo capacity and will co-counsel with Perkins Coie on a number of those representations.”
At Perkins Coie, Bauer headed the firm’s “political law practice” — the largest in the country. It became the go-to practice for prominent Democrats trying to use lawyers to win elections.
During the 2016 presidential race, Perkins Coie served as the private lawyers for the Democratic National Committee. According to The Hill, both the DNC and the Clinton campaign used Perkins Coie secretly to pay Fusion GPS and Christopher Steele to compile a dossier of uncorroborated raw intelligence alleging Trump and Moscow were colluding to hijack the preential election.
Wow, Was I Wrong!


March 28, 2019: Fox News dominated cable talk last night --
Fox News beat CNN and MSNBC's combined average primetime viewership on a night when CNN hosted a Town Hall special with Democratic presidential candidate Senator Cory Booker, and Fox News Sean Hannity interviewed President Trump. Nielsen's early ratings:
  • Fox News: 3.685 million; 653K in the prized 25 - 54 age-group demo
  • MSNBC: 2.141 million; 333K
  • CNN came in dead last, 904K overall; 235K, prized demo
  • each of Fox News Channel's primetime shows also boasted impressive wins over their time-slot competition of MSNBC and CNN, besting the other shows' combined total in each hour  
Original Post 
Rachel Madcow (this will be re-posted later)

Wow, look at this. I thought Rachel Madcow was bullet-proof. Apparently not. From The Daily Beast:
And it’s also possible that the Mueller disappointment drove loyal viewers away in much the same way that people avoid looking at their 401(k)s when the stock market is down. Maddow, who has consistently vied for the first or second top-rated cable news program, was sixth on Monday evening, down almost 500,000 total viewers from the previous Monday, as was MSNBC’s second top-rated program in primetime, The Last Word With Lawrence O’Donnell
But I was really, really wrong. I was sure Rachel Madcow's ratings would soar: with millions tuning in to see her cry.

Dickinson Company Submits Bid To Build "The Wall" -- Includes A Warranty -- March 27, 2019

The Pentagon told Congress Monday that it had approved $1 billion for construction of the border wall at the U.S./Mexico border.
In response to this news, Sen. Kevin Cramer tweeted: “If you tasked a private North Dakota contractor to build a wall, he would start tomorrow.”
Fisher Industries in Dickinson may be that company.
On January 31st, it submitted a $4.31 billion proposal to the Department of Homeland Security. It includes 234 miles of a weathering steel fence, paved roads, border technology and a warranty.
It touts an unmatched construction duration - with a guarantee of building 1 mile of fence system per day - and savings of more than one billion dollars. DHS has not yet made any decisions.

US Refiners Investing In Low Sulfur Fuel Production -- March 27, 2019

For newbies:
  • US refiners, back in the day, back in the 50s and 60s: optimized for light, sweet oil, for WTI
  • then, the Mideast, and OPEC: refiners, over time, invested in refineries to optimize refining heavy oil
  • in the late 90s, early 2000s: heavy oil -- very heavy oil -- discovered in western Canada
  • early 2000s: US oil companies realized they could replace OPEC oil with western hemisphere oil (western Canada, Mexico, Venezuela); optimized refineries to handle heavy oil; cost? $6 billion;
  • November 6, 2015, remarkably that Reuters story is still on the net, "Obama Kills The Keystone Pipeline"
  • 2015 - 2019: Mexican production declines; Venezuela implodes; 
  • 2018: Canadians can't get their act together -- western Canadian oil is landlocked -- TransMountain; Line 3; and, Keystone XL all killed, delayed, in limbo; Alberta limits Canadian production
And, here we are.

Along the way, I suggested the US refiners, after investing $6 billion to "convert" from light oil to heavy oil, weren't interested in converting again, back to light oil. Making things worse: President Obama and president-elect-in-waiting Hillary both said they would kill the coal industry and had their sights on US oil.

The refiners jerry-rigged their system, using heavy oil where they could find it, to "balance" their glut of light oil so it could be refined in US refineries along the US Gulf Coast.

Now today, being reported over at oilprice, Refiners around the world have spent $1 billion on upgrading their refineries to handle light oil.

Data points from that article, but let's start with the elephant in the room, or should we say, the whale in the aquarium?
Eearlier this month the International Energy Agency said in its annual Oil 2019 report, “The 2020 IMO marine regulation change is one of the most dramatic ever seen to product specifications, although the shipping and refining industries have had several years notice.”
Exxon says demand for sulfur-rich oil will plummet by 25%.

Losers? Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, OPEC.

Winners? Texas, North Dakota, and points in between.

Now, back to the data points in that linked oilprice article:
  • around the world, refiners have spent $1 billion since 2015 (a pittance in the big scheme of things) -- about the time President Obama killed the Keystone XL
  • but the investments will continue beyond 2020
  • IMO 2020: becomes effective January 1, 2020 -- less than a year from now
  • [I may be wrong: analysts worry about an over-supply of light oil]
  • refiners currently rushing to capture higher profit margins of middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasooil which have a lower sulfur content, with an anticipated spike in demand later this year
  • WTI: down a percent to $59.32
  • Brent crude: down half a percent to $67.14
  • OPEC basket: down 3/4th of a percent to $66.19

Plenty Sweet Grass With Plenty Sweet Oil To Put In Black Snake -- March 27, 2019

I'm late getting started today so as I move along, I will post, and then re-post, and re-post until I get it all completed. [Later: okay -- this page is completed.]

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. In addition, this is not an investment page. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Lots going on.

First, let's check what WTI is doing at 9:53 and then look at the EIA weekly petroleum report:
  • WTI: down 0.2%; down 12 cents; trading at $59.82, that suggests to me a small build; let's see --
  • weekly US crude oil inventories: increased by 2.8 million bbls last week
  • weekly US crude oil inventories: at 442.3 million bbls, about 2% below the five-year average (but, who are they trying to fool? the five-year average has been moving up significantly the past year or so)
  • refineries? operating at a very, very low capacity -- just as we move into driving season; shortage of heavy oil? whatever -- refineries operating at 86.6% -- at the very low end of what we generally see;
  • and, look at this, gasoline production actually decreased last week (again, as we move into the US driving season; midwest flooding?), averaging 9.7 million bbls of gasoline per day
  • total gasoline inventories are about 2% above the five-year average for this time of the year; so maybe it's simply the refineries not wanting to get ahead of their headlights
  • everything else? Pretty much background noise 
Re-balancing? We're right back where we started (week 3 in the spreadsheet below):

Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 6
January 4, 2019
Week 7
January 9, 2019
Week 8
January 16, 2019
Week 9
January 24, 2019
Week 10
January 31, 2019
Week 11
February 6, 2019
Week 12
February 13, 2019
Week 13
February 21, 2019
Week 14
February 27, 2019
Week 15
March 6, 2019
Week 16
March 13, 2019
Week 17
March 20, 2019
Week 18
March 27, 2019
Second, the market, at opening: almost everything on my watch list is "red," except AAPL, up 1.5%, up almost $3.00.

Third, some headlines to come back to, or better said, some headlines to which I will come back:
Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Wednesday, March 27, 2019: 113 wells for the month; 333 wells for the quarter
  • 35029, 693, Lime Rock, Scott 3-7-6H-143-95, Murphy Creek, t11/18; cum 29K 1/19;
  • 34928, 3,603, WPX, Plenty Sweet Grass 18-19HD. 50 stages; 8.5 million bbls, Squaw Creek, t2/19; cum --;
  • 31799, 1,949, CLR, Mittlestadt 6-17H, Chimney Butte, t1/19; cum 30K at 15 days;
  • 30362, 2,575, CLR, State Weydahl 5-36H1, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 17K at 8 days:
Active rigs (remember: seasonal road restrictions are in place):

Active Rigs6860493297

RBN Energy: what it takes for an LNG Export project to reach FID. Left unsaid, the most important thing for any fossil fuel project to reach FID is the country's political will and a president who listens to that country's political will to allow the process to proceed.
The second wave of North American LNG export projects is officially underway. LNG Canada took final investment decision (FID) last October and would be the first large-scale LNG export facility in Canada. Golden Pass and Calcasieu Pass followed in February, marking the beginning of the next round of LNG export build on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Sabine Pass Train 6 is expected to get the green light any day, and at least eight more projects are targeting FID this year. But how likely are these projects to go ahead? And what exactly does it take for a project to reach that financial milestone? Today, we begin a two-part blog series on the factors affecting U.S. and Canadian LNG export projects’ prospects for taking FID and our view on the projects making progress towards joining the second wave of LNG exports.
One of the ripple effects of the Shale Revolution has been the rush to export LNG. Seven U.S. liquefaction trains across three terminals — two at brownfield sites and one at a greenfield site — are now operational (green diamonds in Figure 1), and more than a dozen others are “FID-ed” and on their way toward completion (blue and orange diamonds). But those are just the ones that have garnered the capital backing and commitment to get built. In addition, there are nearly two dozen more liquefaction projects lined up to. But as surfers know, multiple factors have to align in order to find that perfect swell; the same goes for LNG export projects, and not all of the announced projects will make it. So, what makes a liquefaction project truly viable in a highly competitive environment?