Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Some Big Things Happening In The US Energy Sector -- May 31, 2017

There are some big things happening in the US energy sector

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Link here:

SRE today in a "down" market:

Statoil With Eight New Permits On A Single Pad -- May 31, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs482880189187

Nine (9) new permits:
  • Operators:  Statoil (8), WPX
  • Fields: Banks (McKenzie), Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments: all eight Statoil permits in NWNE 30-153-97; Garmann 19-18F: SH 30-153-97, BH Lot 1 section 18-153-97; Broderson 30-31F 5H: SH 30-153-97, BH SESE 31-153-97; see graphic below
Two permits renewed:
  • Statoil (2): one Jennifer permit and one Allison permit, both in Williams County
Four producing wells completed:
  • 30968, 1,237, EOG, Van Hook 48 -3626H, Parshall, t5/17; cum --
  • 31488, 396, XTO, Cheryl Federal 24X -12AXB, Grinnell, t4/17; cum --
  • 32483, 1,221, Hess, BB-Chapin A- 151- 95- 0403H-3, Blue Buttes, t41/7; cum 5K over 2 days;
  • 32527, 343, Enerplus, Robin 148 -92- 23B -24H, Heart Butte, t5/17; cum --
Area For Statoil's Proposed Eight Wells

See above.


31910, SI/NC, Statoil, Sax 25-36F XE 1H, no production data,
31908, SI/NC, Statoil, Sax 25-36F 2TFH, no production data,

24372, 2,995, Statoil, Broderson 30-31 2H, Banks, t6/14; cum 158K 3/17; off-line much of the time since 11/16;
20531, 3,088, Statoil, Broderson 30-31 1TFH, Banks, t12/11; cum 166K 3/17; off-line much of the time since 11/16;

24411, 3,380, Statoil, Broderson 30-31 3H, t2/14; cum 157K 3/17; off-line much of the time since 11/16;
24413, 2,513, Statoil, Broderson 30-31 4TFH, t2/14; cum 118K 3/17; off-line much of the time since 11/16;

Mainstream Media Continues To Struggle -- May 31, 2017

May 31, 2017: NYT offers buyout offers to its newsroom editors. Something tells me the folks at The Washington Post are thrilled with their multi-billionaire owner.

I track the demise of the mainstream media at this post.

Banana Pancakes

One week later Sophia is still talking about making pancakes with her mother. She does not mention the umpteen times we have made waffles together. LOL.

Speaking of bananas. The Norwegians have become so wealthy because of their crude oil (think Statoil), they no longer peel their own bananas. It is true that for a popular Norwegian [banana] sandwich spread, the process of peeling the bananas has been outsourced to the Swedes. Source: Michael Booth's The Amost Nearly Perfect People, c. 2014, p. 183.]

It is interesting to note that even in their #2 industry -- fishing -- the Norwegians outsource most of the work. From page 194 of Michael Booth's book:
...but take the fish factories on the north coast -- it's well paid but hard, cold work, fish-filleting. Most is now outsourced to China -- the fish is flown to China, filleted, packed in Findus boxes, and sent back -- but the rest is done by Tamils (Sri Lanka/Indians) and Russians, not Norwegians. No one wants to work in a factory, or be an engineer ... 
Findus: Swedish frozen food brand; think "Bird Eye").

By the way, minimum wage in Norway is $47 / hour -- at the time Michael Booth was writing his book, and still factories had difficulty finding local folks willing to take jobs.

The Daily Note

The Second 100 Days
Second 30 Days (Days 131 - 160)
 The First 30 Days (Days 101 - 130)

The Trump Presidency
The Third 30 days +10
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration
The Third 10 Days

June 29, 2017, T+160: even by his own standards, President Trump's tweets about "Morning Joe" today were a bit more callous than usual. Some might say he has gone "off his rocker" but it is what it is.

June 28, 2017, T+159: Bernie Sanders finds it "pathetic" that family members are targets of presidential candidates. Welcome to the real world Bernie. Whiner. On another note, the Trump rally just won't quit: despite no tax reform bill; despite no new health care bill; despite a gazillion investigations; the Trump rally continues. Dow 30 is up another 160 points and the big positive news (bank stress test results) are due out this afternoon.

June 27, 2017, T+158: From the WSJ today, via Twitter -- Comey’s deserved dismissal: The FBI chief forfeited his credibility with his 2016 interventions.

June 26, 2017, T+157: black unemployment is now below 8%. Black unemployment is at its lowest level in seventeen years. Black unemployment is at its lowest since 2000. The black unemployment rate has been dropping since T+30, February, 2017. It begs the question: what was the Obama administration doing for eight years?

 June 25, 2017, T+156: even the Dems are getting of the Russia stuff. Burr under my saddle: one-on-one private conversation, and James Comey refused to respect something so sacred as that. And for what? Not much. Comey looks more and more like a loser.

June 24, 2017, T+155: the mainstream press is now re-visiting two plants that Trump visited shortly after becoming president -- his goal to keep jobs at home. Now, those two plants are facing cutbacks, and the mainstream press is now "suggesting" it might be Trump's fault. It should be noted, that all Trump can do is set the agenda; Congress has to legislate .... and so far: no legislation on healthcare and no legislation on tax reform.

June 23, 2017, T+154: I have no dog in this fight -- at least not directly. How GOP's national healthcare plan works out will be very, very interesting to watch. It is clear that ObamaCare will die if there is no action -- and Dems will not support the GOP plan which would keep ObamaCare alive  (will cut off their nose to spite their face). Meanwhile, the ideological right of the GOP won't sign off on a bill that "looks like ObamaCare Lite." Apparently four GOP senators holdouts; GOP can lose two GOP senators. A fifth, Susan Collins, has not said she will vote "no" but she has big concerns about the GOP bill. Bottom line: Dems could save ObamaCare but won't vote for any GOP bill; key GOP senators can't vote for ObamaCare Lite.

June 22, 2017, T+153: ObamaCare is still the "law" of the land. Nothing has changed. Except health insurers are fleeing. On another note, Nancy Pelosi, the gift that keeps on giving. Like him or hate him, Trump's instincts are first rate. From his tweet today : Mexico was just ranked the second deadliest country in the world, after only Syria. Drug trade is largely the cause. 

June 21, 2017, T+152: it's now being reported that Senator John McCain more deeply involved with the Russians during his 2008 presidential campaign than anything remotely seen in the 2016 campaign. And folks tend to forget he was among the Keating Five.

June 20, 2017, T+151: the US bull market it is into its ninth (9th) year; it moved briskly higher when Trump was elected president and continues to climb the wall of worry. Despite President Obama's admonishments to the contrary, yes, the US can drill itself to lower oil prices. LOL. On another note, all day long, CNBC suggested that the Dems would win one or both of the special elections in South Carolina and Georgia. The GOP won both. The Georgia election set a record for most money spent on a "local" election.

June 19, 2017, T+150: Dow surges 110 points; S&P up 16 points; Nasdaq up an astounding 70 points. Trump rally continues.

June 18, 2017, T+149: "Obama alums" struggle to deal with Trump. LOL. Some refer to Trump's actions as a "dagger into their hearts." The Obama alumni network has become a diaspora of the disappointed as Trump tries to make good on his promises to upend much of what they had worked to accomplish. Wow, this is almost eight months after Trump was elected president and they are still depressed.

June 17, 2017, T+148: quiet.

June 16, 2017, T+147: Trump approval rating hits 50%. Obama's approval rating at this point in his presidency: 43%. Congressional Democrats more interested in playing politics; vengeful vendettas; character assassination; rather than actually helping the middle class.

June 15, 2017, T+146: just give them a bit more room. Baltimore officers put on 12-hour shifts as violence esclates.

June 14, 2017, T+145: After sustained lobbying from the packaged food and beverage industry, the Food and Drug Administration announced Tuesday an indefinite delay in the launch of Nutrition Fact labels that were intended to help Americans eat more healthfully. This was Michelle's pet project (along with vegetable gardens).

June 13, 2017, T+144: Attorney General Sessions: avuncular.

June 12, 2017, T+143: it looks like Congress won't get a thing done this year. Russia has shut down the US government. LOL.

June 11, 2017, T+142: Dow hit an all-time high on Friday; NASDAQ had its worse day in a long time, plunging nearly 5% before recovering, but still with a 3% loss for the day.

June 10, 2017, T+141: James Comey wrote his "memo" on a government/FBI/classified computer. "Leaking" that information from a classified/FBI/government computer is completely illegal -- it would have required a FOIA request, and, of course, the FBI would have denied it. I suppose one could argue that he could write a "new" memo on his personal computer or his own stationary and then give that to the press, but if the memo was a "cut and paste" and released to his friend, that was clearly illegal. Lawyers are starting to note that.

June 9, 2017, T+140: James Comey's testimony -- there was no there there. To coin a phrase. By the way, Tina Fey would say that her "gadar" was pinging during Comey's testimony: expressing his feelings: felt nauseous; felt discomfort; might have done things differently had he been "stronger". Didn't sound like a Washington lawyer; sounded like a man trying to come to terms with his feminine side. To quote Willie Nelson, "cowboys are frequently, secretly fond of each other."

June 8, 2017, T+139: James Comey stands alone now that entire intelligence leadership refuses to answer questions from Congress.

June 7, 2017, T+138: Presidential tracking poll shows Trump's approval rating exceeds Bill Clinton's at same point in presidency. Trump names new FBI director. Today in Congress: Senior U.S. officials decline to answer questions on whether Donald Trump pressed them on Russia inquiries. On live TV, they looked pathetic. 

June 6, 2017, T+137: it's interesting that a private conversation between the president and the FBI director is not protected by executive privilege. But I agree; let Mr Comey testify. His credibility is ...

June 5, 2017, T+136: still trying to understand how she lost the election, Hillary is now talking to God ... daily. I can't make this stuff up.

June 4, 2017, T+135: sitting US Senator most likely to be top contender for Democratic nominee for president in 2020: Al Franken. Reaganesque in quips. One of few Democrats in Congress/Senate less then 90 years of age. Political baton passed from Hubert Humphrey to George McGovern to Al Franken. Great Britain arrests 12 within hours of another terrorist attack in London; amazing how fast they can round up the usual suspects.

June 3, 2017, T+134: wow, talk about snowflakes, cupcakes, and fruitcakes -- where to pigeon-hole Hillary; Kathy Griffin; Cher; Barbra?

June 2, 2017, T+133: it will be interesting to see if the following countries exit Paris climate accord: Australia, Saudi Arabia, Israel. Any US taxpayer who does not agree the Paris climate accord was stacked against the US didn't hear the speech or check out the facts.

June 1, 2017, T+132:  Hillary continues to suck all of the oxygen out of the room. The gift that keeps on giving. Flashback: Hillary's Facebook followers: most came from Baghdad. She is truly delusional. [June 4, from The Hill: "Dems want Hillary Clinton to leave spotlight."] From Trump today: The big story is the "unmasking and surveillance" of people that took place during the Obama Administration. Trump announces US will exit Paris climate accord.

May 31, 2017, T+131: CNN fires Kathy Griffin over freedom of speech issue. Admitted she was going after Barron. By the way, Breitbart is the website the alt-left would like the FCC to take down. 

WTI Down Again -- May 31, 2017

Second trillion-dollar mistake: see graph below. Oil traders are not impressed. Pushing WTI below $48. OPEC doesn't understand the market. If you only meet "what is already baked into the price" when the announcement is made, the commodity will sink in price. In this case, the market was "hoping" for further cuts, not simply continuation of the same (which hasn't worked); in addition, it's hard to call it a "cut" when production still exceeds what it was before the surge. See graph below. 

Oil down again, today. Down over 2%. Around $48.65. [Later: now, down almost 4% and well below $48. I guess Prince Salman was not kidding: he doesn't care if oil goes to zero. Posted, 10:53 a.m. Central Time.]

Active rigs:

Active Rigs502880189187
RBN Energy: continuing the series -- new infrastructure to help Corpus Christi keep pace with Permian growth.

Market opening: NASDAQ scores another record high. WTI continues to fall; at $48.26.

Global glut: there's a meme out there that "OPEC and Russia will do whatever it takes to 'stabilize' the market." LOL. They can start by looking at this graph:

Note how much higher OPEC production is today -- after the production cuts -- than it was in 2014, prior to the production cuts. I guess it's how one defines "production cuts."

TV Crawler: Trump To Withdraw From Climate Accords -- May 31, 2017


May 31, 2017; MuskMelon says he will have no choice but to leave two White House advisory councils if President Trump pulls out of the Paris climate accords. Cher says she will move to Bulgaria.
Original Post 

See this earlier post on same subject.

It will be interesting to see whether India, China double down with Merkel.

Tea leaves suggest it will be a "waffling statement." Anything less than a clear withdrawal will be a huge disappointment, considering he made it clear he would disengage the first day he was president. Whatever. It could be worse. Hillary would be pushing for more stringent milestones.