Monday, January 4, 2021

Fiat Chrysler And PSA To Merge -- January 4, 2021


January 7, 2021: a reminder. Back in 2012, it was GM courting PSA

January 5, 2021: tonight we learn that Fiat Chrysler sales were 8 percent in 4Q20 y/y and full year sales dropping 17%. Only two models recorded year-over-year gains: Jeep Gladiator and Alfa Romeo Stelvio.  

Original Post

Only because I'm bored I'm posting this note.

Fiat Chrysler and PSA announced a merger worth $52 billion, Reuters report per a reader. NYT headline: merger needed to "save" the two companies. AP report here.

New name: Stellantis. Will become fourth largest automaker

My reply to reader who sent me this with me knowing almost nothing about any of this:

Pretty funny. Chrysler can't find a good fit. First Daimler Benz and Chrysler merged; a disaster.

Then, Fiat and Chrysler to which I never paid any attention.

Now, PSA.

Fiat Chrysler with a market cap of around $40 billion (?).

Peugeot, Citro├źn, Opel: the French must like them.

Good for them. Sounds like one of them was in trouble, probably PSA.

I don't invest in automobile manufacturers, so no dog in this fight. 

Purpose of merger according to the press release:

  • the newly-formed firm is expected to play a key role in the auto industry's jump into the new era of electrification.

This is what I see: it's going to cost a huge amount of money to go electric and very few can do it. 

PSA could see the writing on the wall; EU was going all in with EVs and PSA has no options. LOL. 

Look at Ford: investing $11 billion through 2022 to electrify its Ford Mustang Mach-E. $11 billion. Think about that: $11 billion through two years to bring one EV to market. I could be wrong on that ... but probably not too far off.

Tesla? Last time I looked, trending toward a market cap of $750 billion. 

This will be fascinating to watch. Which reminds me: do I need more popcorn? 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Again, I have no dog in this fight. I posted it because I was bored.

However, it spoke volumes about the money it will cost automobile manufacturers just to stay in the game. On top of that, "someone" is going to have to pay for:

  • the electric grid infrastructure;
  • the national charging network;
    • just the cost for the interstate system will be mind-boggling; 
    • then we have the "red" highways
    • then the "blue" highways
  • the lost federal and state gasoline tax which pays for highways (new and maintaining)
  • the displacement of the entire ICE servicing economy

If this -- the whole EV thing -- doesn't work out, it's not going to be a pretty picture for the country.

No New Permits; Six DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 4, 2021

--Active rigs:

Active Rigs1355635440

No new permits.

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37093, drl/A-->3,209, MRO, Ruggles 14-33H, Bailey, first production, 11/20; t11/20; cum 16K over nine days; cum 144K 7/21;
  • 37095, drl/A-->3,194, MRO, Wiest 24-33H, Bailey, first production, 11/20; t11/20; cum 27K over 16 days; cum 137K 7/21;
  • 37316, conf-->3,082, MRO, Klovstad 34-33H, Bailey, first production, 11/20; t11/20; cum 16K; cum 131K 7/21;
  • 35017, SI/A-->116, BR, Lillibridge 1D TFH, Blue Buttes, first production, 12/20; t11/20; cum 169K 7/21;
  • 36993, drl/A--> 3,442, MRO, Leiderbach 11-27H, Chimney Butte, first production, 11/20; t-11/20; cum 31K over 15 days; cum 208K 7/21;
  • 37250, loc/A-->3,418, MRO, Hoss 41-3TFH, Killdeer, first production, 12/20; t12/20; cum 202K 7/21;

Three of the MRO wells are all on the same pad, these wells are clearly on the fringe of the Bakken:

  • 37316, conf-->3,082, MRO, Klovstad 34-33H, Bailey, first production, 11/20; t11/20; cum 16K; cum 131K 7/21
  • 37093, drl/A-->3,209, MRO, Ruggles 14-33H, Bailey, first production, 11/20; t11/20; cum 16K over nine days; cum 144K 7/21;
  • 37094, PNC, MRO, Pomeroy,
  • 37095, drl/A-->3,194, MRO, Wiest 24-33H, Bailey, first production, 11/20; t11/20; cum 27K over 16 days; cum 137K 7/21;

MRO Reports A Great Stillwell Well In Lost Bridge -- 215K Bbls Crude Oil In Three Months -- The DC2-K-L-S Pad -- January 4, 2021

Five wells on this pad bear watching; some run north; some run south.

The wells:

  • 21839, conf, MRO, Kottke USA 11-13H, Lost Bridge,
  • 21837, 1,398, MRO, Deep Creek USA USA 14-12TFH, Lost Bridge, t3/13; cum 358K 10/21;
  • 21838, conf, MRO, Levi USA 11-13TFH, Lost Bridge,
  • 32434, 4,679, MRO, Stillwell 21-13H, Lost Bridge, t9/20; cum 420K 10/21;
  • 21840, 1,380, MRO, Deep Creek USA USA 21-13TFH, Lost Bridge, t2/13; cum 389K 10/21; looks like a moderately interesting halo effect;


Original Note

I can't recall if I posted it, but I know I was thinking it: the Lost Bridge oil field would eventually turn out to be seen as a good field. It's smack dab in the middle of several other great fields. 

Although not updated in a long time, the Lost Bridge oil field is tracked here.  [Note: I would love to opine about this, but a) I need to move on; and, b), as noted earlier, I often get ahead of my headlights resulting in pushback from folks smarter than I; I have a thin skin, so I will hold my thoughts and not get ahead of my headlights.)

A huge "thank you" to a reader who alerted me to this well.

Again, MRO. 

MRO is on a roll. This is really quite incredible. Maybe more on this later, but for now, the well:

  • 32434, drl/NC-->4,679, MRO, Stillwell 21-13H, 33-025-03101, Lost Bridge, first production, 8/20; t--; cum 215K 9/20; fracked, 8/19/20 - 8/25/20; 7.9 million gallons of water; 81.2% fresh water by mass; 6.4% produced water by mass; production; note 90K in first full month of production; 215K in three months. Early in the boom, EURs of 300K were the expected; 403K 8/21; F;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

It appears that an older, producing well, #21840, on the same pad shows a subtle jump in production. Most may disagree with me, but it looks like a small jump occurred in that older well about the time the Stillwell well was fracked, but again, just my biased observation. I can't say for sure, but I believe the Stillwell is a middle Bakken well whereas #21840 is a Three Forks well. Again, I may be mistaken.

That well:

  • 21840, 1,380, MRO, Deep Creek 21-13TFH, Lost Bridge, t2/13; cum 378K 8/21;
Let's see:
  • 250K x $20/bbl = $5 million.

Wow, Wow, Wow -- ESPN "First Take" -- LOL -- January 4, 2021

Chinese Flu Watch

The US Vaccine Rollout

Now with the US rollout faltering, I see a headline that "scientists are debating vaccine distribution." Oh, give me a break. "They" had a plan. Pro rata distribution to the states. The states set up groups 1a, 1b, and 1c. This is not rocket science. Vaccinate those in 1a until the vaccine runs out; wait for more, and continue the process. Meanwhile, start planning for groups 2a, 2b, 2c, 2d, 2e, 2f .... 2z+n and move on. 

You know, the interesting thing is that President Trump would not have put up with this rollout debacle, but he's a lame duck president and this is now the least of his worries. The tea leaves suggest the rollout will worsen under Biden. Which reminds me, my microwave popcorn has quit popping. LOL.

The Sports Page

I completely missed this. Apparently some games were played yesterday. LOL.

But, wow, the New York fans are livid. LOL. 

Something about their team not moving on. LOL They haven't mentioned the sport yet, but I think they're talking about the NFL. LOL. 

And how those Cowboys? LOL. 


Apparently not as urgent as everyone suggested. 

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- January 4, 2021

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1355635440

Three wells coming off the confidential list today --

Monday, January 4, 2021: 3 for the month, 3 for the quarter, 3 for the year.

  • 36706, drl/A, Hess, BL-Amelia-156-95-1514H-8, Beaver Lodge, first production, 7/20, t--; cum 88K 11/20;

Sunday, January 3, 2021: 2 for the month, 2 for the quarter, 2 for the year.

  • 36381, drl/A, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-5, Big Butte, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 82K 11/20; see below

Saturday, January 2, 2021: one for the month, one for the quarter, one for the year.

  • None.

Friday, January 1, 2021: one for the month, one for the quarter, one for the year.

  • 36250, conf, Slawson, Osprey Federal 3-26-29H, Big Bend, no production data.

RBN Energy: the top ten RBN prognostications for 2021.

  • US natural gas is now totally dependent on exports to balance supply and demand (10)
  • US producers will now shut in wells to prevent a total price collapse (9)
  • in crude oil markets, it's all about the Permian (8)
  • midstreamers hanging on to minimum volume commitments "for dear life" (7)
  • the big story: propane (6)
  • low crude oil prices do not mean high natural gas price (5)
  • ethane will see better days in 2021 (4)
  • Houston will be the exporter of crude oil; stealing volume from Corpus Christie, others (3)
  • hydrogen is the new momentum fuel (2)
  • shale operators, in mature market phase, is now risk-averse (1)

Big Butte -- It Certainly Is

The well:

  • 36381, drl/A, Hess, EN-Enger-156-94-1423H-5, 33-061-04470, Big Butte, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 82K 11/20; initial production; 42,281 over 24 days extrapolates to 52,851 bbls crude oil over 30 days; fracked 5/14/20 - 5/23/20; 7.0 million gallons of water; 86% water by mass;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Incredible Amazing Bakken -- January 4, 2021

I've updated the MRO wells in Antelope-Sanish at this post. I'll come back later and take a closer look at some of them.

Was It A Parrot Or A Myna Bird?

Link here. Dog reunited with owner after being "lost" for eight years. Unidentified animal alerted the owner.