Locator: 44749DEBT.
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Debt Ceiling
SecTreasury Yellen said US government would hit the "debt ceiling" between January 21, 2025, and January 23, 2025.
I haven't heard anything since. Tomorrow, about forty minutes from now it will be January 23, 2025. Just saying.
By the way, who's the SecTreasury now? Mr David Lebryk. Link here. Wiki here.
Locator: 44748ICE.
Updates
Later, 9:37 p.m. CT: in first 33 hours, ICE makes "hundreds of arrests," specifically more than 460. That's a good start.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), in the first days of the Trump administration, has made for than 460 arrests of illegal immigrants, including those with criminal histories that include sexual assault, domestic violence and drugs and weapons crimes.
.... between midnight January 21, 2025, and 9 a.m. January 22, 2025, a 33-hour period, ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) arrested over 460 aliens that include criminal histories of sexual assault, robbery, burglary, aggravated assault, drugs and weapons offenses, resisting arrest and domestic violence.
Agents arrested nationals from a slew of countries including Afghanistan, Angola, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Senegal and Venezuela.
Arrests took place across the U.S. including Illinois, Utah, California, Minnesota, New York, Florida and Maryland.
This will start to become routine and the reporting will eventually turn simply to reporting numbers. ICE has four years. I think folks are going to be amazed at the crimes these folks committed and yet were allowed to walk free by local law enforcement. I wonder how Amy Klobuchar feels about this. My hunch: both "Morning Joe" and "The View" will avoid this issue, at least the specifics. And if they're worried about due process, there's room at G. Bay to hold them pending trial now that President Biden emptied those prisons. But they're not being re-arrested for their violent crimes, they're being arrested for being "here" illegally.
Let's see. The US Senate has confirmed one of Trump's nominees. SecState.
Original Post
We're seeing an administration working / making news 24 / 7 and it's not going to quit any time soon.
Now this, being reported at 9:40 p.m. ET, Wednesday night, January 22, 2025:
For all the folks who thought this was going to require more "man" power and more money --- not so fast. Wait until Trump deputizes ... well, I'm not going to say it. LOL. Except to say there are probably 1,600-some folks that would be more than happy to be so deputized.
Remember when Richard Nixon and Elvis Presley were apparently talking about some such law enforcement opportunity?If one takes time to read the memo, it seems very, very appropriate and really nothing particularly new, but the headline will capture the imagination of the panel on "The View."
From the memo and TWSJ:
The memo, sent by acting Homeland Security Secretary Benjamine Huffman, says DHS is granting immigration-enforcement authority to several agencies at the Justice Department, including the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the U.S. Marshals Service.
The memo also emphasizes that Federal Bureau of Investigation agents already possess immigration-arresting powers, known as Title 8 authority. Still, FBI agents traditionally steer clear of such work except where it intersects with their main mission of national security and other investigations.
Though the memo doesn’t directly deputize those agents to assist with President Trump’s promised deportation campaign, administration officials are planning for the Justice Department to cooperate by lending some agents, a person familiar with the matter said.
The Marshals Service may become involved in immigration-related cases if they overlap with federal fugitives or detention responsibilities. The ATF and DEA have historically not been involved in immigration enforcement, either, except where there are other gun or drug-trafficking violations. Officials in these agencies have long complained that they are already strapped for resources they need for their core missions of fighting violent crime and drug enforcement, and policing immigration violations would add more to their plates.
Locator: 44747B.
Devon (think Grayson Mill) getting active on the west side of Williston.
The wells that are producing are good wells for this area of the Bakken. Very good.
The maps:
The wells:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 31166 | 25314 |
| 10-2024 | 22092 | 11093 |
| 9-2024 | 12527 | 0 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 33718 | 29574 |
| 10-2024 | 45048 | 23538 |
| 9-2024 | 3649 | 0 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 33847 | 27636 |
| 10-2024 | 46859 | 26170 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 35237 | 30173 |
| 10-2024 | 36352 | 20284 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 33872 | 28723 |
| 10-2024 | 33661 | 16786 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 29954 | 21501 |
| 10-2024 | 30753 | 16926 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2024 | 30528 | 25434 |
| 10-2024 | 9746 | 4201 |
Locator: 44746ARCHIVES.
For the archives.
Locator: 44745B.
Covid-19: Trump apparently working to end US research on Covid-19-like viruses. Will let the Chinese "own" that research. Of course, folks don't realize that to combat new viruses, ... well, we've talked about this before; not interested in rehashing it.
Sixth industrial revolution: Morgan Stanley's top tech banker apparently in talks to leave Morgan Stanley to join White House. Put that in context with Stargate.
Market: I have not been following the market very closely, but I'm occasionally looking at certain tickers.
Today, for example, I looked at Amazon. Not on purpose; it was on my twitter feet. Amazon hit an all-time high. When I run through the companies that will most benefit from the Sixth Industrial Revolution, all I can see is "animal spirits," risk-on trades, FOMO, MOJO, and YOLO. It is rare for these events -- the election of a president like Trump and all the tailwinds in place for the market as a whole -- to occur.
When it comes to winners and losers, this seems to be an open-book test.
My personal portfolio, the part for which I am totally responsible, has not been particularly great -- partly due to "legacy" holdings that "can't" be sold. Having said that, I wouldn't change a think. With a 30-year horizon, I'm incredibly happy with the portfolio.
My wife, on the other hand, has her entire portfolio professionally managed, and she has had a super 2024 and it appears that, to date, she may be even doing better in 2025.
California fires: a new fire "explodes." This one: the Hughes fire. Well north of Los Angeles city proper. Quickly went to 9,400 acres; no structures lost. I-5 has been closed, but will re-open after the evening news conference. A reminder: the fires began on January 7/8, 2025; this makes it two weeks.
Breaking news:
Breaking news: another southern California fire breaks out.
Average IQ in the White House: surged on Monday, January 20, 2025.
Director, Bureau of Prisons: resigns. Link here. Also, link to Forbes.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $75.44.
Active rigs: 32.
Five new permits, #41537 - #41541, inclusive:
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Dry hole:
Locator: 44744TECH.
There's an interesting 12-page essay in the February, 2025, issue of The Atlantic.
The title: "The Anti-Social Century,"
The writer makes a lot of observations, raises a lot of issues and references, among others, Jean M Twenge, the author of the best-seller Generations, c. 2017.
One of several graphs that piqued my interest. This is a survey of high school seniors (twelfth graders):
Unfortunately, the author notes the graph but does not do any satisfactory analysis, at least as far as I'm concerned.
I plan on coming back to this one but in the meantime spend some time on the graph.
The author's (and Ms Twenge's) thesis is that much of this is due to technology, e.g., the iPhone.
The trend is pretty much flat-lined for forty years (1970 - 2010) and then declines significantly over the next decade. It's impossible to miss this "hockey-stick" phenomenon.
With regard to technology, name the top three technology breakthroughs that could explain this graph.
I'll provide the correct (LOL) answers later this evening if I don't run out of time.
Locator: 44743INVESTING.
Stocks climbed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 hitting a fresh all-time high, as technology shares such as Oracle and Nvidia rallied on artificial intelligence optimism and President Donald Trump’s new term in office.
The S&P 500 advanced 0.61% after hitting an intraday record of 6,100.81, exceeding the last milestone touched in December before the market pullback. The broad index closed at 6,086.37, slightly below its all-time closing high.
The Nasdaq Composite popped 1.28% to 20,009.34, underscoring the outperformance of tech names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 130.92 points, or 0.3%, to 44,156.73, boosted by Procter & Gamble ’s gain of nearly 2% on the back of strong earnings.
Stocks surged on strong earnings reports, with Netflix jumping more than 9% after the company surpassed 300 million paid memberships. Its fourth-quarter earnings and revenue also topped analyst expectations. The streamer’s results got a boost from hit series “Squid Game” and live sporting events such as the Jake Paul and Mike Tyson boxing match.
Oracle shares jumped more than 6% and Nvidia climbed more than 4% as investors continued to pile into the AI trade following an announcement from the new White House. President Trump announced a joint venture dubbed “Stargate” on Tuesday, with OpenAI, Oracle and Softbank to invest ″$500 billion, at least” in AI infrastructure within the United States.
“The combination of a resilient economy, easing inflation, stabilization in interest rates, an earnings season off to a strong start, and less day-one focus on tariffs by President Trump has provided a solid backdrop for the market,” said Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer. “Tech is reasserting its leadership on the back of the Stargate project, which highlights the secular tailwinds and transformative potential of AI.”
“Today is yet another reminder that the dominant theme of this bull market is artificial intelligence and technology,” Lerner added.
Some would call this "the perfect storm":
“The combination of a resilient economy, easing inflation, stabilization in interest rates, an earnings season off to a strong start, and less day-one focus on tariffs by President Trump has provided a solid backdrop for the market,” said Keith Lerner, Truist’s co-chief investment officer. “Tech is reasserting its leadership on the back of the Stargate project, which highlights the secular tailwinds and transformative potential of AI.”
Locator: 44741MMF.
My favorite chart. MMFs. Money market funds. Liz is trying to make a point (?) but folks will be led to misread this chart if they don't spend some time on it. Hint: pay attention to the line graph and not the bar graph.
Locator: 44740EVS.
Updates
January 23, 2025. Sounds like a religion to me. I wonder what Patrick George would have to say about this? Link here.
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Other Auto News
Stellantis to bring back American classics after CEO exits. Link here.
Locator: 44739B.
Back to the law of the land: this is directed against state and city officials with regard to sanctuary cities --
Netflix: just went over $1,000. Share price.
Right now, electricity, NY-ISO, ISO-NE:
Netflix: in premarket trading uip almost 15%; up $127 / share after jumping $12 yesterday
P&G: surprising earnings beat estimates as shoppers buy more household staples. Yup. Consumers still doing well.
Again, read disclaimer. I often make a lot of typographical and content errors. I correct them when I find them. Posted "on the fly." This is not an investment site. Don't make any financial or life decisions on anything you read or think you may have read on this blog or any other blogs in the "MillionDollarWay" stable.
Disclaimer: more than ever it's important to re-read the disclaimer, especially the part about content and typographical errors.
Trump 2.0 -- day 2:
DOD: my hunch -- having those "come to Jesus" meetings in preparation for briefing Trump over the weekend.
Tariffs: on track for February 1, 2025, for Mexico, Canada
Immigration: interestingly quiet yesterday
Electricity: right now --
MSFT:
Energy:
*********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $75.93.
New wells:
RBN Energy: how much will Trump's flurry of orders remake US Energy?
U.S. energy policy was at the heart of the 2024 presidential campaign in
more ways than one. Many voters cited economic concerns in their
decision to return President Trump to the White House, with energy costs
top of mind, but U.S. energy policy impacts everything from domestic
manufacturing and decarbonization efforts to resource development and
international trade. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the executive
orders issued by Trump on the first day of his second term and how they
fit into his plan for the U.S. to exert “energy dominance.”
