Ford's New Electric Pickup Will Cost $28,350 -- August 7, 2026

Locator: 51354FORDEV.

Updates

August 8, 2026: read the Ford article at the original post, and then read this one. Link here. This makes a very, very difficult case for EVs any time soon. Pure EVs look "dead." Hybrids are the future and they are "fake" EVs. They improve the mileage for individuals but don't do much for the earth.  EV makers are banking on surviving the Trump years and coming back with a vengeance with a more progressive view. It's interesting: for the EV folks they might have been better off had Trump won that second consecutive term ... Biden's presidency just gave Trump a second chance ... pretty ironic. 

Now, with AI sucking up all the electricity, it's going to be a very, very hard sell to convince folks that electricity prices will drop, making EVs economical again.

As I write that, I'm getting mixed messages. On the one hand, we are being gold that there won't be enough electricity to go around, to meet all needs, because of AI, and now we have Ford going down the back-to-the-EV-future" EV road.   

The situation is testing longstanding data that shows when people go electric, most stay electric. A February study from J.D. Power showed that 96% of polled EV owners say they would consider purchasing or leasing another—but that outcome is contingent on having options in the EV market.

Nationally, second-quarter new EV sales and leases were down 20.5% year-over-year, according to Kelley Blue Book.

“There is defection from that EV market,” said Ivan Drury, an Edmunds automotive analyst. “I think the one biggest problem—it is a mental hurdle to say, ‘Man, I used to be paying $200 a month. Now you guys want $500?’”

Ahead of the $7,500 tax credit’s expiration in September 2025, dealers were eager to get the cars off their lots as fast as possible. Average monthly lease payments for EVs hit a low of $538 in July 2025, according to data from Edmunds. Some dealerships offered lease deals for EVs with monthly payments of less than $100.

As of June, average monthly lease payments for EVs have risen to $707, compared with an average monthly payment of $607 for a non-EV, according to Edmunds data.

Original Post 

Ford EV: this will generate a lot of headlines but it cannot possible generate a lot of profit. Selling an EV for less than $30K. 

Hunch: the total "drive-off-the-lot" cost will be closer to $40K than $30K. 

Bookmark this for January, 2028. 

Car Sales (Total, ICE, And EV) And The US Economy -- July 23, 2026

Locator: 51230EVS.

EVs -- The Day The Music Stopped -- Seniors Don't Like EVs? July 21, 2026

Locator: 51215EVS.

Apparently rich seniors haven't  been enamored with EVs. 

Yesterday something caught my attention and I posted headlines regarding EVs that were making the news back in 2024. See below. How times have changed. Today, this headline (link here): 

****************************************
Posted Yesterday 

2024: Remember when the current CEO Mary Barra said that EVs would be profitable by 2030 and that the company would phase, by 2035, the ICEs for the vehicles most of us buy. This target was first established in 2021 and reaffirmed in late 2024.

EV Rust Belt -- March 31, 2026

Locator: 50382EVS.

Interesting, huh? High gasoline prices won't rescue EVs this time around. 

Ticker: Rivian -- 

Back to GM:

 

And Ford?

Oasis -- Lost Hills, CA -- Tesla's Huge Supercharger Station -- Buc-ee's On Steroids -- March 22, 2026

Locator: 50293MUSK.  
Locator: 50293EVS.  

This is a most interesting development.

• the distance from San Francisco, and then the distance to Los Angeles
• is easily reached in all EVs -- incredible, brilliant
• on top of that, it exactly matches the Bullet Train distance and route
• once folks get used to this EV Supercharging station, they will see no need to switch to the Bullet Train.
• Brilliant.
• Audacious.

Tesla: Supercharger station -- link here. 

• Oasis
• Lost Hills, California;
• 11 MW -- solar
• 10 Megapacks  -- 39 MWh
• 168 stalls
• self-contained energy system 

Unbelievable -- The Day The Music Died -- February 6, 2026

Locator: 49922EVS.

This $26 billion financial hit --  mainstream media suggests this happened overnight but it's been going on for quite some time now. Check "STLA" and set time frame to "five years" or "max." There's no way this can be sugar-coated.

Link here. 

Link here.

The Day The Music Died -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49914EVS. 

Link here. 

And then BYD:

**********************
And, Then, Of Course, There's Rivian

Link here. 

The downgrade hits Rivian stock at a vulnerable moment. The company just reported 2025 deliveries of 42,247 vehicles, down 18% from the prior year and slightly below Wall Street’s forecast.

EVs: The Day The Music Died -- February 4, 2026

Locator: 49908EVS.

For EVs, the day the music died:

Investing, Part 2 -- February 2, 2026

Locator: 49882MARKET.  

At / near the close:

DIS: worst performer on the Dow. Dropped 7% today. Evenso, it's amazing how much time CNBC spends on DIS. Now, on top of everything else, Bob Iger is checking out. Lame Duck.

AAPL: huge day.

PLUG: for me, this is the second biggest story of the day.

BYD: this is the biggest story of the day. The day the music died.  

GLW: up $8.55. I still remember how I discovered GLW. It was watching Apple (AAPL).

CAT: up $34 today. P/E: 37. Rule-of-forty: 31%.

MU: company’s rule-of-forty has recently exceeded 50 - 60%. 

The Day The Music Died -- GM's Sales Surge -- GM's Earnings Surge -- The End Of GM's Hobby Horse -- January 28, 2026

Locator: 49859EVS.

Still lots of EV losses.

General Motors reported a $3.3 billion net loss in 4Q25, largely driven by over $7 billion in charges and special, noncash impairment charges related to restructuring its electric vehicle (EV) strategy, cutting production, and canceling supplier contracts. Despite this, adjusted earnings remained strong at $2.8 billion due to solid ICE vehicle performance.

Takeway: this show absolutely how much money GM makes on ICE vehicles.  

**********************
Still One Of My Favorites

Link here. 

Today: 

• the third angle, The Third Man -- perhaps my favorite movie -- perhaps even better than Casablanca. 
• The Third Man theme, link here.

Like TYWKIWDBI, we both started our blogs in 2007. Interesting, huh? I deleted all posts from 2007 through 2008, and started fresh sometime in 2009. But I started blogging in 2007.

Link here. 

Directory.

The Year The Music Died -- January 22, 2026

Locator: 49788EVS. 

Link here. 

Automobile Sales -- January, 2026, Data -- The Day The Music Died -- Posted January 2, 2025

Locator: 49784EVS.

EV: reminder -- tax credits, etc, ended September 30, 2025 --  

• coincided with end of 3W25
• coincided with end of US federal government fiscal year

4Q25 data -- first quarter in which tax credits were no longer available. Decrease in sales were expected, and percentage decline would have been exaggerated by surge of buying in 3Q25 before tax credits were no longer available.  

Tesla, reported Friday, January 2, 2026:

• delivered 418,227 vehicles
• down from 495,570 deliveries from one year ago
• below the consensus estimate: 440,907
• TSLA: shares down 1.2%
• so, 
• estimate: 441,000
• actual: < 420,000
• 5% worse than expected, and 
• down 16% from one year ago  

Rivian, reported Friday, January 2, 2026:

• delivered 9,745 vehicles (these numbers are atrocious)
• down from 14,183 deliveries from one year ago
• consensus estimate not provided
• RIVN: shares down 2.2%
• so, 
• one year ago: 14,183
• this quarter: 9,745 
• down 31% from one year ago  
• history: it appears that Rivian recorded an all-time high of 13,201 deliveries 3Q25
• for perspective, 12,640 deliveries, 2Q23
• overall 2025 performance
• delivered 42,247 vehicles vs 51,579, full year 2024
• an 18% decrease from 2024, slightly below analyst expectations
• 2024, full year: 51,579. 
• 3Q: 13,201 or 31% (straight line would have been 25%)
• 4Q: 9,745 or or 23%
• 9,745 extrapolates an rate of 38,980, or  
• 92% of total deliveries, 2025
• 75% of total deliveries, 2024 
• one wonders how they will spin this; three more years of Trump.  

***************************
BYD

Sales decline y/y (fourth quarter).

Full-year sales at 4.6 million met their revised target.

Surpassed Tesla to become the world's largest EV manufacturer overtaking Tesla.

Unlike Tesla and Rivian (both pure-play EVs), 50% of BYD's sales are BEVs; 50% are PHEV (fake EVs).

Chinese market is saturated; reports strong export performance. 

Just Breaking -- WSJ -- Where Does One Even Begin? The Day The Music Died -- December 15, 2025

Locator: 49711FORD.

Updates

December 16, 2025: but Ford isn't giving up on EVs. Memo for record -- Ford will discontinue current Lightning F-150 (with poor towing capability and 300-mile range) to F-150 on steroids (towing capacity of a "locomotive" and a 700-mile range). Why don't we have this today? 

December 16, 2025:  

December 16, 2025:

December 16, 2025: Kentucky battery plant -- all 1,600 jobs cut. Link here.

Original Post

Lightning F-150: one of the best-selling EVs by many accounts prior to today. Will completely stop building the Lightning.

Appears to have been posted by The WSJ just after the market closed for the day.

Front page: 

This is all AI had moments before the close:

This is all old news; all AI had at the close of business today:

But they still can't quit altogether. Note last paragraph in the lede from The WSJ today:

Ford said Monday it expects to take about $19.5 billion in charges, mainly tied to its electric-vehicle business, a massive hit as the automaker retrenches in the face of sinking EV demand. [Amazing how they round this to come in under $20 billion.]

The sum is among the largest impairments taken by a company and marks the U.S. auto industry’s biggest reckoning to date that it can’t realize its electric-vehicle ambitions anytime soon.  

Ford, which has lost $13 billion on its EV business since 2023, said it would bolster its lineup of gas-powered vehicles while shifting to hybrid and so-called extended-range electric vehicles that include onboard gasoline engines. [Fake EVs.]

The goal is to pull back from loss-making assets and redeploy capital designated for EVs to models with higher profitability. 

“Instead of plowing billions into the future knowing these large EVs will never make money, we are pivoting,” Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley said in an interview. “We now know enough about the U.S. market where we have a lot more certainty in this second inning” of reduced-emissions powertrains, he said. ["... will never make money." Large EVs have large margins; small EVs have small margins.]

Regulatory changes and lackluster demand from Americans are forcing U.S. automakers to abandon plans to quickly step to an electric-vehicle future. Ford, which had bet big on EV, is now making one of the industry’s biggest changes to its business.

The company said it remains on track to produce a $30,000 EV pickup for sale by 2027, which the company says will be the first in a new string of low-cost EVs. “Now this is the core of our EV strategy in America,” Farley said. “We’ve got to land the plane.”

Ticker F today: mostly flat. Full year -- trading near its one-year high -- 

Lucid: lost another 6% today and for the year is down almost 60%. The back stop for this company: Saudi Arabia, the country (PIF)

Rivian: actually doing quite well for the year. The backstop for this company: Amazon, holds 13% of the stock. VW committed to using the technology. Saudi group invested. 

Tesla: not unexpected in light of Ford's news. TSLA up $16, almost 4%. 

Random Note On EVs -- The Day The Music Stopped -- December 11, 2025

Locator: 49688EVS. 

Autos.

Who would have predicted this two years ago?

They will try to spin it the best they can, but the short answer is this: both Farley and Barra blew it when it came to EVs. 

 

Link here. 

*****************************
Meanwhile, Rivian Fell Another 6% Today

Tuesday -- December 2, 2025

Locator: 49588B.

Google: analysis over at x. Link here. Note: I've never invested directly in Google. I assume some of my managed accounts and ETFs hold GOOG. Market cap: $3.8 trillion. Contributor says GOOG needs to be seen as a $4 trillion market cap company.

EVs: absolutely not unexpected. Link here. 

Rivian: upbeat analysis. Link here. 

XOM: eyes Lukoil's huge Iraqi oilfield as US sanctions forces sales. 

MU: flashback. Probably one of my best posts on Micron ever. Link here. Recent, link here. Dell. 

****************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $59.20.

New wells reporting:

Wednesday, December 3, 2025: 9 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 716 for the year,

• 41775, conf, CLR, Rose Federal 3-34H
• 41774, conf, CLR, Rose Federal 2-34H, 
• 41222, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 11-2 4H, 
• 41221, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 11-2 3H, 
• 41220, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 11-2 1H, 
• 41138, conf, Phoenix Operating, Marshall 11-2 2H, 
• 41025, conf, Devon Energy, Helling 16-21 5H, 
• 36701, conf, BR, Muri 2D-UTFH, 

Tuesday, December 2, 2025: 1 for the month, 124 for the quarter, 708 for the year,

• None.

RBN Energy: Targa continues its sour-gas expansion with stakeholder deal. Archived. 

Few parts of the gas gathering and processing sector have been hotter lately than the Northern Delaware Basin, where crude-oil-focused wells rock also generate large volumes of sour associated gas packed with hydrogen sulfur (H2S) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Targa Resources, already the largest sour gas processor in the Permian, doubled down on that specialty on December 1 with the announcement that it will acquire Stakeholder Midstream, another player in that space, for a cool $1.25 billion. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the deal and the assets that come with it.

In our recent three-part blog series on sour gas processors in southeastern New Mexico and the counties just east of there in West Texas, we said the Permian’s Northern Delaware is the epicenter of U.S. crude oil production growth, with New Mexico’s Eddy and Lea counties accounting for an astounding 52% of U.S. production growth from 2020-24, a four-year gain of nearly 1 MMb/d in just two counties. That growth, which has continued through the first 11 months of 2025, came as a result of producers like EOG Resources, Devon Energy, Mewbourne Oil, Occidental Petroleum and Matador Resources perfecting their drilling-and-completion techniques and — with their midstream partners — solving the area’s #1 challenge: dealing with elevated levels of H2S and CO2 in much of the associated gas that emerges from many wells there.

We also looked at how high the H2S and CO2 concentrations can be and the approaches midstream companies can use to bring down those levels. Generally speaking, the most effective way to slash H2S and CO2 content in associated gas is to run the gas through a centralized amine treatment facility, then compress the resulting H2S/CO2 mix into a supercritical liquid and inject it into an acid gas injection (AGI) well for permanent sequestration. (A bonus: The CO2 sequestration can provide federal tax credits.)

Sensing a unique opportunity, Targa Resources over the past few years has been expanding its gas gathering and processing presence in the Northern Delaware through a combination of acquisitions and organic growth. Targa, the region’s largest treater of sour gas, currently has a total of 2.3 Bcf/d of centralized amine treatment capacity in the basin, including 920 MMcf/d at its Red Hills sour gas treating and processing complex in southern Lea County (blue triangle near center of Figure 1 below) and 850 MMcf/d at its Bull Moose facility across the state line in Winkler County, TX. The company also has seven AGI wells (brown dots) with the capacity to inject a total of more than 30 MMcf/d of liquefied H2S/CO2.

A Most Interesting Phenomenon -- Record High Price For New Cars -- Yet Sales Remain Strong -- November 23, 2025

Locator: 49785AUTOS.

I think this is incredibly bullish. It would be interesting to see the demographics: what demographic accounts for these numbers? 

But then this.  

Random Note On The Ford F-150 Lightning -- November 16, 2025

Locator: 49728EVS.

For the archives. There is a huge misreading / misinterpretation of the data by the author.

Link here. 

Hint: I've walked across the street to check out the newest Tesla out of curiosity. But I was, in no way interested / interested in buying a Tesla.

In the old days, people would flock to grotesque "features" at circuses, but that doesn't mean they were were "interested" in them as something they would want to adopt, marry, or bring home to the kids.

EV Sales -- November 10, 2025

Locator: 49384EVS.

The stories below tell me two things:

• the pie (global EV sales) may or may not be getting bigger but more automakers are entering the sector, certainly leading to more competition, and perhaps smaller slices of the pie for the automakers;
• in the US, presence or absence of tax credits will make or break many EV manufacturers. 

Link here. 

Link here. 

Link here. 

Link here.