Locator: 49338SOYBEANS.
Variations of the following dominate the agricultural feeds on my x account. Link here.
Wednesday, October 8, 2025
Global Oil Demand -- So, What's Going On? October 8, 2025
Locator: 49337OIL.
When I first started blogging, global oil demand was around 96 million bopd, and growth forecast was fairly flat. Then the lockdown and two years or so to get back to "normal."
Now, all of a sudden, it seems like overnight: 103 million bopd demand around the corner.
And natural gas demand. That's going to be the big story over the next four years!
And with the end of EVs ....
And US auto manufacturers are pivoting to fake EV's --- huge SUVs with electric motor assist. LOL.
A Reminder: 2-NM Process -- October 8, 2025
Locator: 49335CHIPS.
2-nm technology: this was posted on the blog back on June 16, 2022. Link here. And tracked here. Apparently people have forgotten. Link here. Tom reminded us last month. Link here.
AMD, Intel, and Media Tek. TSMC's customers, link here.
Four New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- October 8, 2025
Locator: 49334B.
WTI: $62.55.
Active rigs: 32.
Four new permits, #42381 - #42385, inclusive, excluding #42383, an SWD:
- Operators: BR
- Field: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie County)
- Comments:
- BR has permits for two Maverick wells and two Stortroen wells, SWSW 12-151-97;
- to be sited 500 FLS and 741/837 FWL.
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
- 41683, 608, Hunt Oil, State A 156-90-0-16H-2, Mountrail County;
AMD Surges! Up $24 Today -- Up 11% Today -- October 8, 2025
Locator: 49333AMD.
After hours, holds gain, and adds another one percent.
Is anyone paying attention?
From two days ago:
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Barron's: AMD
I don't recall for sure, but I could look it up if I cared. I don't.
But I remember the moment very, very well.
Our community library is perhaps the best community library in the immediate area and there are many to choose from.
So, I don't recall the exact day, but I do remember the aha moment! I'm pretty sure it was June 21, 2024, about eight months ago. At that time I was going to the library on a regular basis, focused on business periodicals, biographies, and top-shelf literature.
Whatever day it was, the cover photo on the Barron's issue on the shelf was of Lisa Su.
I read the article. It didn't make a lot of sense but Barron's only publishes once a week, which means that Barron's only publishes 52 covers each year. Lisa Su and AMD was now one of them, just as all the talk at that time was of the Fourth Industrial (Sixth Industrial) Revolution.
At that moment, I started a position in AMD and I haven't looked back. For the record:
- Micron (MU) was the last chip / tech company I bought. Source: Chip War. I'm very "proud" of picking that when I did -- it was so out of favor when I bought it. Just as Intel was.
- Oracle: second best chip / tech company I bought. Source: discussion with our older daughter and oldest granddaughter planted the seed. It's still my favorite in terms of fascinating to watch, not necessarily the best investment opportunity right now.
- Broadcom: luckiest position -- specific recommendation from a reader who probably has written me once.
- Amazon: hated it; said I would never buy it -- but within the last year, "the writing is on the wall," as they say. I think it was Starlink (Musk) / Kuiper (Bezos) that was the tipping point.
- Intel: my rules of investing do not allow me to invest in Intel.
So, that's kind of where I'm at. That's most of my tech holdings.
Through ETFs, a whole lot more.
Back to Lisa Su, June 21, 2024, link here, tenth anniversary at the helm -- just reaching her peak --
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- Longer version here.
Chart Of The Day -- October 8, 2025
Locator: 49331CAT.
Up $11 / share today. In early trading. Later, in mid-day trading, up $22 / share.
*******************
The Book Page
Perhaps the three best books of a non-technical nature on Alan Turing:
- Alan Turing: The Enigma, Andrew Hodges, first published in 1983; link here;
- The Universal Computer: The Road From Leibniz to Turing, Martin Davis, c. 2000
- The Man Who Knew Too Much: Alan Turing and the Invention of the Computer, David Leavitt, c. 2006.
Can anyone connect the dots? It practically jumps out at you, if you know the story.
The Man Who Knew Too Much: Alan Turing and the Invention of the Computer, David Leavitt, c. 2006.
Chapter 1: The Man In The White Suit -- very short.
Chapter 2: Watching the Daisies Grow -- a long chapter. I would like our daughter with five-year-old twins to read this chapter. Truly amazing -- Turing's coming of age, her quirks, personality, the poster child for concrete thinkers.
From page 14:
Also from page 14:
I find that a lot of the replies I get from ChatGPT are very similar to the vignettes above.
Chapter 2 was much more interesting due to my eclectic reading program back in 2004 and thereabouts:
- C. K. Scott-Moncrieff and Proust
- Virginia Woolf, Lytton Strachey, Leonard Woolf, and John Maynard Keynes (the Bloomsbury group);
- Bertrand Rusell; The Apostles;
- E. M. Forster;
- The Well of Loneliness(1928)
- Middlemarch, George Eliot, and Mr Casaubon
Chapter 2 also lays the groundwork for the math and physics that would follow.
Chapter 3: The Universal Machine
Now it starts to get a bit more difficult. A very, very long chapter.
Chapter 4: God Is Slick.
It begins: Turing had now provided a definition for a whole new category of numbers, the "computable numbers."
Chapter 5: The Tender Peel -- 1938 -- a critical year.
The second generation bombe, p. 180 - p. 181, invented by Turing, in 1939, or thereabouts. Not earlier.
Chapter 6: The Electronic Athlete
Chapter 7: The Imitation Game.
Chapter 8: Pryce's Buoy (link here).
Maurice Pryce, first mentioned, on page 115. Pryce, 1913 - 2003, physicist and professor at Oxford. A friend of Turing's.
Early Market Trading -- Cramer's First Hour; The Eisen Hour -- October 8, 2025
Locator: 49330CRAMER.
CNBC's response rate greatly delayed at the open.
Holy mackerel: both AMD, MU, and SCCO all surge at the open. Wow.
Day 8 of government shutdown. Futures look solid.
Cramer on Lucent (again). If what he is saying is accurate -- where was the SEC?
Today's tech story: this morning, Cisco announced a new chip to connect AI data centers over vast distances, putting it in direct competition with Broadcom, which also announced AI networking developments . Both companies are positioning their latest technologies to capitalize on the explosive demand for AI infrastructure.
CSCO at the open: up maybe half a percent.
Dell: updates growth from 8% to 15%. Jumps $5.44 at the open -- a new 52-week high.
SCCO: holy mackerel.
Futures, in the news:
- ASTS and Vrizon. ASTS up 14%.
- INTC: HSBC downgrades Intel to reduce.
- BMW: down 6% in pre-market trading.
- Gold at 4,062, another 1% gain.
Chyron:
- AMD: up another $1.39 after gaining another $7.80 yesterday.
- MU: I will be adding to my position today (actually for three grandchildren. I no longer invest for myself.) Down $5.27 yesterday; up almost $2.00 in pre-market. See disclaimer.
- AAPL: down slightly, second day in a row.
- SRE: this $75-stock closed above $94 yesterday.
- UNP: dropped $5.55 yesterday. Not doing much today.
- CSX: not doing much either.
- CVX: down $1.44 at the open. Wow, energy simply continues to struggle.
- BRK-B: in a very, very narrow trading range. At the open, with almost everything else up, BRK-B is down again, down $1.47.
TSLA: "big announcement" yesterday didn't affect stock price much. In fact TSLA dropped $20 yesterday; up $3.30 in pre-market trading today.
Trump / Ronald Reagan air traffic controller playbook. Folks may want to ask ChatGPT how "we" survived Ronald Reagan, with regard to this issue.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
- I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
- Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
- If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
- Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
- I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
- And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
- I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
- Longer version here.
Hump Day -- Assad Wearing Out His Welcome? October 8, 2025
Locator: 49329B.
Breaking: Ousted Syrian leader Assad reportedly hospitalized in Moscow after suspected poisoning.Nobel prize: chemistry. Underwhelming. Climate-change prize. Most bizarre headline: "US scientist of Palestinian origin among Nobel Prize winners in chemistry.
The prize committee has announced the three winners: Susumu Kitagawa from Japan, Richard Robson from Australia, and Omar Yaghi from the USA, born to Palestinian parents in Jordan."
- Arizona State University; now UC-Berkeley
- Kyoto University, Japan
- Australia, Melbourne
This is what will be story:
Omar M. Yaghi received his Ph.D. from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley. Dr. Yaghi was born to Palestinian refugees who settled in Jordan, and moved to New York for college. He “was in love with chemistry from the very beginning,” according to a statement from the University of California, Berkeley.
It will be interesting to see how AI puts their discovery in plain English. I don't get it at any level. But I can see how the nomination made it to the committee for final decision. "In love with chemistry from the very beginning." That was the best UC-Berkeley could do?
Nobel Prize winners: link here.
But, a Palestinian and global warming! Wow, that's a twofer.
**********************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $62.77. "All of a sudden," folks seem to be getting worried about supply. Link here.
New wells reporting this next week. Link here.
RBN Energy: link here.
Free Cash Flow -- October 8, 2025
Locator: 49328CASHFLOW.
A talking head on CNBC this morning noted that OpenAI is valued at $500 billion when OpenAI will be competing with companies that have $50 billion to $100 billion cash flow on an annual basis.
ChatGPT generally responds to any one of my queries almost immediately. To get this chart took five to ten seconds.
Most recent cash flow in far right column below:
I was curious about BRK:
Back to OpenAI:
- Historic chart: link here.
- ChatGPT:
Jensen Huang Llive On Squawk Box -- October 8, 2025
Locator: 49327NVDA.
While listening to Jensen Huang, all I could think of was Alan Turing. Link here.
A 30-minute+ interview with Jensen Huang on CNBC. Impossible to capture all the high points but mostly "platitudes." Did not learn anything new.
The entire spend of the internet boom during the dot-com era was $45 billion total. Most spend was on "web pages." Few with a "real manufacturing business."
First tranche of infrastructure right now is $50 billion. That's just the entry free for a single company today.
Total spend in 2025: in the ballpark of $1.5 trillion.
Spend in 2026 could hit $2.0 trillion.
All of this needs to be fact-checked. I was doing this on the fly and my transcription is/was very, very poor.
Don't quote me on any of this. I wouldn't stand behind any of what I wrote above. I'm sure the interview will be available on CNBC later today.
BHP CEO On CNBC: AI Boom Boosts Copper Demand -- October 8, 2025
Locator: 49326COPPER.
World's largest mining company; Australian.
Copper: traditional growth but now AI demand.
Copper demand to grow 70% by 2050.
Resolution Mine.
- fits and starts.
- has Trump's support.
- a $10-billion FID.
In the US, a huge problem to open a new mine. Incredibly important for US government to become a partner with these mining companies but this CEO has concerns with an administration picking winners and losers.
Ticker SCCO: looked "severe" yesterday; pre-market today, looks better. The one-year chart: up 16%. Pays 2%+.
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