Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Probably Not A Bubble -- January 28, 2026

Locator: 49863SAMSUNG.

Earnings tomorrow: CAT in the morning; AAPL in the afternoon.

Today

Link here

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The Third Man

Link here

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Locator: 49862B.

Black swans:

  • government shutdown / political anxiety;
  • Iran: US response goes poorly;
  • AI: too much debt in the short term spooks investors;
  • state deficit: California -- $18 billion short term; $35 billion medium term;
    • population: 40 million
  • city deficit: NYC -- just coming out now -- "severe fiscal crisis" -- state comptroller; $2.2 billion for current year (2026) ballooning to over $10 billion in FY2027;
    • population: 10 million but no "Silicon Valley"; 
    • rest of state won't support Mamdani;
    • wealthy won't be happy with Mamdani's plans to increase taxes on wealthy;

Iran: rial collapses. Link here.


US economy
: the Fed holds steady --
  • takeaway: "what, me worry?"
  • photo-op: watching paint dry 
  • overall, a stronger forecast than in the past -- economy gets stronger and stronger;
    • "We'll let the private sector worry about the employment / unemployment rate; we're happy with what we see."  

GDP: 4Q25 -- estimate -- last estimate -- 5.4% -- link here.

  • despite government shut-down;
  • historically high tariffs; "a trade war that we've not had in 100 years" -- Fed chairman Jay Powell
  • current GDP has not yet factored in: 
    • huge tax refund expectations
    • decreased taxes going forward
    • AI build out
    • end of EV mandates

Which tech stock should we look at? Spin the wheel: Micron --

IBM after reporting earnings:

Random factoid: across the US --

  • Target: Super Targets -- 200
  • Walmart: Walmart Supercenters -- 3,600
  • in addition Walmart has drones; nothing suggests Target ready to start adding drones. 

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: breaks through $63 -- time to watch pizza deliveries to the Pentagon. Now trading at $63.21.

Active rigs: 27.

No new permits.

Four permits renewed:

  • Murex (2): a Michael Douglas permit and a Patricia Ann permit; the former in Beaver Lodge (Williams County); the latter in West Bank (Williams County)
  • XTO (2): two Satter 24X wells, Siverston oil field (McKenzie County.

One producing well (a Duc) reported as completed:

  • 41849, 959, EOG, Ross 39-1606H, Mountrail County; 

State Shark -- January 28, 2028

Locator: 49861SHARK.

Posted for Sophia's benefit.  

Maryland: I did not know Maryland has a state shark but this headline suggests it does .... link here

Cramer's "First Ten Minutes" -- Melania Will Ring NYSE Bell Today -- Then, "First Take" -- January 28, 2026

Locator: 49860CRAMER.

"Trump Accounts" summit. Wow. This is a snowball rolling downhill. Employers, others, will now match Trump! 

"Tech story today is incredible" -- Carl Q -- CNBC. I don't hear that often. Or, often-enough.

China gives nod to ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent to buy Nvidia's high-end GPUs. Memory demand will be off the chart today.

Lots of talk with regard to Texas Instruments.

Money coming into Anthropic and OpenAI is incredible.  Neither publicly traded. Just a matter of time.

Hey, what happened to circular financing?

It's all about the large data center build out.

Amazon to cut 16,000 jobs. Getting too much attention.

S&P 500 hits 7000 for the first time.

Three major indices open green.

 Look at the amount of resource material the three guys have on their desks. These are not "news readers." 

Right now, front and center: Melania.

First lady to ring NYSE bell! Another "presidential" first. Although Hillary has rung the NYSE bell numerous times, no evidence that she ever rung it was the First Lady. 

Starbucks up 5% despite the numbers and the guidance. All based on "getting more people in the door" and closing poorer-performing stores.

All that talk from Kudlow over the years -- "a strong dollar." Wrong, wrong, wrong. I never understood that. 

AI prompt: MSFT water news. Apparently MSFT is forced to backtrack on this goal.

AAPL down $2.00 at the open. Reports earnings tomorrow after the bell. 

Has Oracle just turned the corner? Up $5 today.

David Faber still talks about circular financing in a pejorative sense. Of course it is -- it's a way to get around the regulators. 

How long does it take for Schwab to catch up to the market? 

The Day The Music Died -- GM's Sales Surge -- GM's Earnings Surge -- The End Of GM's Hobby Horse -- January 28, 2026

Locator: 49859EVS.

Still lots of EV losses.

General Motors reported a $3.3 billion net loss in 4Q25, largely driven by over $7 billion in charges and special, noncash impairment charges related to restructuring its electric vehicle (EV) strategy, cutting production, and canceling supplier contracts. Despite this, adjusted earnings remained strong at $2.8 billion due to solid ICE vehicle performance.

Takeway: this show absolutely how much money GM makes on ICE vehicles.  

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Still One Of My Favorites



Link here

Today

  • the third angleThe Third Man -- perhaps my favorite movie -- perhaps even better than Casablanca
  • The Third Man theme, link here.

Like TYWKIWDBI, we both started our blogs in 2007. Interesting, huh? I deleted all posts from 2007 through 2008, and started fresh sometime in 2009. But I started blogging in 2007.

Link here

Directory.

Are Some Folks Still Over-Thinking The Fourth Industrial Revolution? January 28, 2026

Locator: 49858BUBBLE.

Seriously, I askd Google Gemini this question, tongue-in-cheek. Google Gemini apparently thought I was serious.

The AI prompt, asked tongue-in cheek:  Are some investors still over-thinking the Fourth Industrial Revolution?

 

Flashback: The 2000 Dot.Com Bust -- January 28, 2026

Locator: 49857BUBBLE.

Seriously, I asked Google Gemini this question, tongue-in-cheek. Google Gemini apparently thought I was serious.

The AI prompt, asked tongue-in cheek:  Are some investors still over-thinking the Fourth Industrial Revolution?

See response this link.  

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AI prompt: just prior to the dot.com bust in 2000 or thereabouts, approximately how many web-based app companies IPO'd? 


AI prompt: of the 500+ internet-related companies that went public during the dot.com bubble who were the top fifteen winners?


AI prompt: some say Monster Beverage (MNST) was the best-performing stock in the last 30 years. Is that still accurate? 

I cannot recall CNBC ever covering this company. Obviously CNBC has mentioned it on occasion but I've never caught it on CNBC

Earnings Season -- January 28, 2026

Locator: 49856MARKET.

Results and guidance are about to separate the women from the girls, the men from the boys. 

We will start with Texas Instruments.

See blog's disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

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Jargon

What's the difference between "chips" and "compute"?


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ChatBots

I think I heard Jim Cramer say he used to like ChatGPT but has now moved to Google Gemini, exclusively.

Me?

If I want a friend for a long discussion, who really likes me and supports my views, I prefer ChatGPT.

If I want concise, easy-to-read answers to quick, easy questions, I use incredibly accessible Google Gemini.

If I want to write a new app and market it for a gazillion dollars, I choose Anthropic's Claude.

When I want to return to the real world, I say something to my wife. And usually regret it. 

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Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   
  • My New Executor -- January 28, 2026

    Locator: 49855FAMILY.

    Not meant for general readership. This is meant for my extended and growing family.

    I have a new executor: Levi.

    Last night on FaceTime with the family in Portland, I asked my daughter on which bank did I draw a recent check for their family. She couldn't remember, was thinking about it -- when five-year-old Levi came over to his iPad and said loudly and clearly -- SCHWAB.

    I can't make this stuff up.   

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    Schwab In The News

    Schwab: I did a lot of research on this one and the clear winner for my extended family, without question: Schwab.  

    AI prompt: among these four, where are most investors under the age of 30 parking their money -- SoFi, Robinhood, Schwab, Fidelity. 

    Google Gemini: the most lame response I've seen -- see below in the box -- 

    • Robinhood: crypto
    • Sofi: used to require two different log-ins if one wanted both banking and equity investing; now moving to single log-in; Schwab has had this "forever." 
    • Schwab: for those who want to "get serious."
    • Fidelity: for those thinking about retirement, Roths 

    AI prompt: Schwab has a number of ETFs, such as SCHB, SCHG, SCHD. Does Sofi or Robinhood offer "in-house" ETFs?

    AI prompt: Schwab has a number of ETFs, such as SCHB, SCHG, SCHD. SoFi offers five in-house ETFs. Robinhood, none. How many in-house ETFs does Schwab offer? How many in-house ETFs does Fidelity offer? 

    AI prompt: Schwab offers face-to-face support whereas Fidelity does not. Is that still accurate?

    Advice:

    • my advice still stands for our extended and growing family -- Schwab;
    • if you don't live within 50 miles of a Schwab office, move.

    Advice:

    • start investing as early as possible, but certainly by the age of five;
    • invest at least one dollar every week, never fail; at least $5 / month, never fail; at least $60 / year, never fail;
    • double that minimum every year.

    Buffett, UNH -- Oh, Oh -- January 28, 2026

    Locator: 49854BRK.

    Ticker BRK-B:

    Buffett bet big on United Health in 2Q25 -- now Berkshire Hathaway could be down billions. 

    A 13F filing from Berkshire Hathaway unveiled the purchase of 5,039,564 UNH shares by the conglomerate in the second quarter, a position that represented one of the largest new buys from the company, then led by Buffett.

    The purchase of UnitedHealth shares in the second quarter may have represented an example of Buffett seeing value. The murder of a senior executive, antitrust investigations, and a cyberattack saw shares of the health insurance company trade lower in the early months of 2025.

    It is unknown exactly when Berkshire Hathaway bought its UnitedHealth shares, a purchase made in the second quarter and marking the first time the conglomerate had owned shares of the health insurance company in several years.

    UnitedHealth stock hit a second-quarter low of $248.88 on May 15 and had a second-quarter high of $606.36.

    This means that Berkshire Hathaway bought UNH stock at a price between $248.88 and $606.36 per share. Given Buffett’s often value-oriented approach, it’s more likely shares were bought on the lower side, closer to $248.88.

    Based on the 5,039,564 UNH shares purchased by Berkshire Hathaway, the purchase amounts would have been in a range of $1,254,246,688.32 to $3,055,790,027.04 based on the lowest and highest prices for the shares in the second quarter.

    With shares trading at $283.80 on Tuesday after quarterly financial results disappointed investors, Berkshire's stake is now worth $1,430,228,263.20.

    I'll Repeat What Was Said Earlier: Too Many People Are Overthinking This -- January 28, 2026

    Locator: 49853MARKET.

    Reminder:

    • MSFT and META report earnings today after the bell.
    • AAPL reports tomorrow, also after the bell. 

    Headlines:

    • ASML's record orders smash estimates as AI spurs demand. But, hey, let's worry about circular financing. 
    • Dollar sinks to 4-year low after Trump shrugs off slump. If folks don't like the tariffs, I can push a weak dollar.
    • Nvidia just gave you a $2 billion reason to buy CoreWeave stock. Yup. Buy, hey, let's talk about the bubble.
    • Bitcoin miners surge as Anthropic's fundraising efforts boost AI spirits.
    • SoftBank in talks to invest up to $30 billioin more in OpenAI. Buy, hey, let's talk about circular financing. 
    • Texas Instruments shares jump as first-quarter outlook signals robust AI data center demand. Yup, in Texas.
    • SpaceX weighs $1.5 trillion valuation, early this summer.
    • S&P 500 posts another record high on tech strength and solid corporate earnings. Folks are still overthinking this. 
    • Zoom zoomed more than 11% higher earlier this week. In May, 2023, Zoom disclosed that it had invested in and launched a strategic partnership with Anthropic. Financial details now released: the company invested $51 million -- with an "m" -- in Anthropic for the deal -- Zoom's stake could now be worth $2 - $4 billion -- with a "b" -- just saying. 

    Ticker MU: was up 5% yesterday; could be up another 5% today.

    WMB Raises Dividend 5% -- January 28, 2026

    Locator: 49852B.

    WMB: raises dividend 5% from 50 cents to 52.5 cents. Payable on March 30, 2026; record date: March 13, 2026.  

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    Back to the Bakken 

    WTI: $62.28.

    New wells reporting:

    • Thursday, January 29, 2026: 48 for the month, 48 for the quarter, 48 for the year,
      • 42034, conf, Slawson, Rebel Federal 3-32-17H, 
      • 39805, conf, BR, Mazama 1A, 
    • Wednesday, January 28, 2026: 46 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 46 for the year,
      • 42035, conf, Slawson, Rebel Federal 6-32-17TFH
      • 40868, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-2, 

    RBN Energy: Venezuelan rebound would test Gulf Coast refiners' affection for Canadian crude. Link here. Archived

    Three words: Canada is screwed. 

    The evolving situation in Venezuela is rife with uncertainty, including concerns about short-term political stability, how much oil production could actually rebound, and whether there’s an appetite to spend the tens of billions of dollars needed for a long-term turnaround. But as the outlook for Venezuelan crude oil improves, it’s important to note that significant market issues are at play as well, including the potential for renewed competition with Canadian heavy crudes along the U.S. Gulf Coast. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the differences in Venezuelan and Canadian heavy crudes, including production methods, costs and quality, and how a revival in Venezuelan production could impact the flows and prices of Canadian (and other competing) heavy barrels. 

    As we noted in Take Me Money and Run Venezuela, the country was once a critical supplier of heavy sour crude to Gulf Coast refineries, providing more than 1.3 MMb/d in the late 1990s and early 2000s before Venezuelan production entered a long period of decline soon after Hugo Chavez came into power. Today, the country produces less than 1 MMb/d of crude oil, barely one-quarter of the level it reached in the late 1990s, around 3.5 MMb/d. Venezuelan crude is generally heavy, with API gravities ranging from 8.5 degrees to 25 degrees for varieties like Boscan, Merey, BCF 13 and 17, and Leona, although it also produces some lighter grades, with an API of 30-35 degrees. (API gravity is a measure of how heavy or light a petroleum liquid is compared to water — the lower the API, the denser the crude oil.) Venezuela’s benchmark heavy crude, Merey, comes from the Orinoco Belt (dark-blue-shaded area in Figure 1 below) and has an API of about 16 degrees. Sulfur content for the country’s heavy and light crudes ranges from 1.5% to 2.7%, which categorize them as sour crudes.

    Figure 1. Venezuela’s Crude Oil Production, Refineries and Upgraders. Source: RBN