Thursday, October 21, 2021

Let's Go, Bakken -- October 21, 2021

Cushing: nears empty. Link here

*****************************
Let's Go, Bakken 

Active rigs:

$82.57
10/21/202110/21/202010/21/201910/21/201810/21/2017
Active Rigs2914627154

No new permits:

Eleven permit renewals:

  • Enerplus (50: five WM Brown permits in Williams County;
  • CLR (4): four Charolais South Federal permits in McKenzie County;
  • Bowline (Nine Point, Triangle) (2): two Lee permits in McKenzie County;

One permit canceled:

  • 38290, Whiting, LBJ 24-14H, Mountrail County;

Producer now abandoned:

  • 16715, MRO, Kevin Buehner, Dunn County;

November, 2021, Hearing Dockets Are Posted — Pretty Much Complete

Link here.

Tuesday, November 2, 2021.
Wednesday, November 17, 2021.
Thursday, November 18, 2021.

The usual disclaimer applies.  I do this quickly for my benefit. It is not meant for readers; readers should go to the source documents.

In a long note like this there will be content and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Tuesday, November 2, 2021

Six cases: Minnkota. See this post.

Wednesday, November 17, 2021
Nine pages

These are cases, not permits:

  • 29038, NDIC, confiscation,
  • 29039, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, setback rules, Dunn County
  • 29040, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, fourteen wells on a standup 2560-acre unit; sections 6/7/18/19-146-94; Dunn County;
  • 29041, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, one well on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams County;
  • 29042, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, one well on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams/Mountrail counties.
  • 29043, Hess, Pleasant Valley and/or Big Butte-Bakken; one well on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit; Williams and Mountrail counties;
  • 29044, Hess, Pleasant Valley, Beaver Lodge and/or Manitou-Bakken; one well on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit, Williams and Mountrail counties;
  • 29045, Kraken, Rainbow and/or Oliver-Bakken, two wells on a new standup 1920-acre unit, 17/20/29-158-98; Williams County
  • 29046, Kraken, Oliver; two wells on a new standup 1920-acre unit, 33-158-98; Williams;
  • 29047, Kraken, Oliver and/or Rainbow-Bakken; one well on a new overlapping 3840-acre unit, Williams
  • 29048, Prudent Resources, LLC, changing drilling units; two vertical wells, 80-acre drilling unit, E/2 of the SE/4-17-158-91; commingling Bakken and Three Forks oil; Mountrail
  • 29049, Murex, pooling;
  • 29050, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, nine horizontal wells on a 1280-acre unit, section 12-157-95 and section 7-157-94; Williams and Mountrail;
  • 29051, Hess, Sorkness-Bakken, eight wells on a 1280-acre unit; sections 34/35-157-93; Mountrail;
  • 29052, Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, nine wells on a 1280-acre unit; sections 30/31-156-95, Williams
  • 29053, Hess, pooling,
  • 29054, Hess, pooling,
  • 29055, Hess, pooling,
  • 29056, Hess, pooling,
  • 29057, Hess, commingling,
  • 29058, Whiting, conversion to SWD, file #19580,
  • 29059, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, two wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 28/29/32/33 -146-93, Dnnn County
  • 29060, MRO, commingling,

Thursday, November 18, 2021
Eleven pages -- wow!

These are cases, not permits:

  • 29061, Eagle Operating, Feldner Coulee-Madison, re-define field limits, Renville County
  • 29062, Behm Energy, Pronghorn-Red River, re-define field limits, McKenzie County;
  • 29063, Hunt, Ross-Bakken, five wells on a new overlapping 2560-acre unit, Mountrail
  • 29064, Grayson Mill (Equinor), Todd-Bakken (city of Williston), one well on a new overlapping 2560 acre unit, WIlliams County
  • 29065, Bison Oil & Gas III, LLC, Briar Creek-Bakken, six wells on a new 2880-acre unit; McKenzie;
  • 29066, CLR, Catwalk, Last Chance, and/or Baker-Bakken, i) create an overlapping 1280-acre unit; ten wells; ii) create an overlapping 1920-acre unit; eleven wells; iii) create an overlapping 2560-acre unit, two wells; iv: create an overlapping 3840-acre unit, two wells, Williams and McKenzie
  • 29067, EOG, Stanley and/or Parshall-Bakken, create i) an overlapping 2240-acre unit, one well; and, ii) an overlapping 2560-acre unit, two wells; Mountrail County
  • 29068, EOG, Stanley-Bakken, file #17487, #17862, #17949, #17996, injection, pilot injection project, Mountrail
  • 29069, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken, file #32797, #32798, #32795, production/injection test, McKenzie
  • 29070, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken, file #32797, injection, McKenzie
  • 29071, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken, file #32798, injection, McKenzie
  • 29072, EOG, Clarks Creek-Bakken, file #32795, injection, McKenzie
  • 29073, EOG, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken, create i) two overlapping 1920-acre units; five wells in each; ii) an overlapping 3840-acre unit, one well; Dunn, McLean counties
  • 29074, CLR, pooling,
  • 29075, CLR, pooling,
  • 29076, CLR, pooling,
  • 29077, CLR, pooling,
  • 29078, Ovintiv (Encana, Newfield), pooling
  • 29079, Grayson Mill (Equinor), pooling
  • 29080, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese
  • 29081, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese
  • 29082, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese
  • 29083, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese
  • 29084, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese
  • 29085, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese
  • 29086, Sinclair, risk penalty legalese
  • 29087, XTO, commingling
  • 29088, XTO, commingling
  • 29089, KODA Resources, SWD

Apple Giveth, Apple Taketh Away -- October 21, 2021

SNAP: crashes. Loses a third of its value. What a debacle.

  • ouch
    • dropped 25%
    • dropped  $20
    • trading at $55
  • watching the spin by analysts will be interesting;
    • blames Apple
    • apparently Apple made changes in it iOS that dramatically affect Snap
  • Epic-like apps might want to take notice
  • should this have been a surprise for SNAP investors?

S&P 500: closed at new high;

Selected tickers
:

  • UNP: closes at 52-week high.
  • XLNX: closes at 52-week high.
  • AAPL: actually up slightly; surprised
  • oil equities: mostly slightly lower
  • one exception: Icahn's SWX
  • DFS: down 8% -- ouch
  • INTC: down almost 8% after hours; beat on earnings, but missed on revenue
  • ARKK: up a bit

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

DUCs -- October, 2021 Data

Sent to me by a reader.

Full data posted elsewhere.

This is only data for:

  • December, 2013
  • January, 2014
  • month of January, 2018- 2020
  • all months, 2021 through September, 2021

Month/Yr

Bakken



Drilled

Completed

DUC


Dec-13

--

--

570


Jan-14

178

143

605


Jan-17

62

52

781


Jan-18

107

72

768


Jan-20

99

98

844


Jan-21

20

44

752


Feb-21

19

28

743


Mar-21

25

47

721


Apr-21

27

52

696


May-21

29

68

657


Jun-21

31

65

623


Jul-21

32

62

593


Aug-21

39

66

566


Sep-21

41

68

539


Legacy Fund Deposit -- October, 2021

Legacy Fund.


*********************************
Reminiscing

We were so incredibly fortunate. We were stationed overseas for thirteen consecutive years -- my wife says fourteen -- it's just that Turkey seemed longer than it really was -- LOL. 

I'm re-reading parts of Nicholas Boyle's two-volume biography of Goethe: The Poet and The Age, c. 1991.

I was curious to re-read that chapter on Goethe's trip to Italy, 1786. 

Prior to the trip he was depressed and suicidal. After he returned, he was a different person. Little is known about that trip. Much conjecture. 

During our first USAF military assignment to Germany, we took a car trip to Venice. Unknown to us at the time, we traced Goethe's footsteps almost exactly. His journey started a bit east of ours, but by the time he got to Regensburg, Germany, our paths were pretty much the same:

  • the Brenner Pass;
  • we took the side trip to Innsbruck; Goethe did not;
  • Vicenza; see Mignon;
  • the last stopping point before Venice
  • at the time of our trip, a huge US Army post
  • Venice;

Nicholas Boyle then spends a full page or two describing the "Palladian" architecture Goethe found in Vicenza. I know nothing about architecture but in another life, long ago and far way, I had a woman friend who was very, very much into architecture. I was never able to accompany her, but I pined over that lost opportunity when she took an architectural tour of southern England. Wow, those were the days. 

This is why I worry not about "spoiling" my grandchildren. I don't care what they study in college. I care not where their passions may lead them. I want them to live their lives to the fullest. Things will work out. They generally do.

For me:

  • several cross-country hitchhiking trips during my college years
  • one trip to Europe on my own, and hitchhiking all the way, 
    • from Williston, ND, and back, via NYC, Luxembourg, Koblenz, Germany;
    • Basel, Switzerland; Rome; Marseilles; Lisbon; Frankfurt; and back
  • thirteen years overseas with the US Air Force
  • every summer during college, a different job, geographically challenging

On another note, the autumn evenings in Texas are in incredible for star-gazing. I cannot believe how bright Jupiter, and to some extent, Saturn are. I thought Jupiter was Venus, but my iPhone sky-app sorted that out for me. 

So, every night, I see the moon, and down to the "right," maybe a hand width away, Jupiter and than Saturn; Venus much farther to the right (I guess that would be to the southwest -- I could be wrong there). In the morning, Sirius is chasing the moon: Sirius is high above me, the moon is heading toward the horizon. 

One year ago:

  • Billy Joe Shaver, August 16, 1939 - October 28, 2020
  • Jerry Jeff Walker, March 16, 1942 - October 23, 2020
  • Eddie Van Halen, January 26, 1955 - October 6, 2020
I'm Just An Old Chunk Of Coal, Billy Joe Shaver

Billy Joe Shaver and Jerry Jeff Walker, the early days.

A Farmer's Plight -- October 21, 2021


Notes From All Over -- The Kyndryl Edition -- October 21, 2021

UNP, 3Q21 earnings:

  • profit topped analysts' expectations
  • cost cuts and price increases bolstered the bottom line even as cargo growth lagged
  • UNP cut its 2021 volume target
  • volume growth, 5%, down from a target of 7%;
  • EPS: $2.57 vs $2.51, and higher than than the $2.01 a year earlier;
  • revenue rose 13% to $5.6 billion vs $5.4 billion forecast

Economic indicators released today: wow, wow, wow -- the housing sales numbers were absolutely incredible. I was impressed. 

A reminder, IBM to split into two companies:

  • Kyndryl ("can drill") would have been a better name for an oil company
  • link here; and, here.

Wework: set to go public via a SPAC two years after failed IPO. Link to WSJ

Supply chain shortages:

  • US: just-in-time delivery
  • China: just-in-case delivery

********************************
CCS

Updates

October 21, 2021: HartEnergy has the story, finally. And also at KFYR

North Dakota’s regulatory framework for geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) is leading the nation again as the North Dakota Industrial Commission approved the first Class VI well in North Dakota on Oct. 19.

 North Dakota was the first state to receive primacy of Class VI wells from the US EPA in 2018, followed only by Wyoming in 2020.

Original Post

North Dakota carbon storage: ethanol plant seeks to capture emissions. Amy R. Sisk.

Paddle Boarding Comes To An End For The 2021 Season in Grapevine, TX -- October 21, 2021

How high is oil? It drops $2.41 / bbl and it's still above $81.

Recession?

Recession? With regard to the current economic cycle I first mentioned the "R" word back in August, 2021.  Some argue, and rightly so, if a recession is indeed in the cards, blame the high cost of energy, especially gasoline, here in the states. "GasBuddyGuy" tweeted yesterday that Saudi Arabia, sitting on tons of spare capacity -- defined as 30/90 -- and showing no signs of a willingness to release it, will result in a recession

The last thing Saudi Arabia wants or needs is a recession because they sat on all that spare capacity. And there's the rub. For sake of argument, let's play devil's advocate.

Let's say Saudi Arabia sees the same chart we see above. Let's say they buy into "GasBuddyGuy" that by not pumping / exporting more crude oil, Saudi Arabia's inaction will lead to recession. If so, wouldn't Saudi Arabia start producing / exporting more oil? It takes awhile to ramp up. Playing devil's advocate, if Saudi Arabia knows that a recession looms because it is not producing more oil, this tells me only thing: link to Simon Watkins.

***************************
The Witches Are Watching

Grapevine Lake, TX -- swan song for the season, 2021. There is talk of a "Polar Bear Plunge" on New Year's Eve / Day.

Notes From All Over -- Tesla's Tipping Point -- One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- October 21, 2021

Jobs: very, very good numbers for the most part says CNBC. Initial claims and continuing claims, a post-Covid low. But still at 290,000 or thereabouts. Yawn. In an hour, the number will be forgotten. 

Oil and natural gas investors: if you are not reading RBN Energy every day ... well, what can I say. That's almost as bad as not reading the MDW blog every day. RBN Energy on cash hoarding by E&Ps below.

Biden approval poll: top CNBC political story by Steve Liesman today -- Resident Biden's approval has plummeted; approval in the red. Worst polling in thirteen years on economy outlook. Steve Liesman is shocked -- again. He is shocked how "negative" Americans are. Some of the worst polling numbers Liesman says he has seen in thirteen years. Noted that gasoline in California is now $5.  Americans are very worried about a recession. What does that mean. If one has discretionary income, it is likely to go into savings, not investing and not spending. Not going into investing: the gap between the investor class and the non-investor class will continue to widen. Not spending: could be a self-fulfilling prophecy for a recession. Those with a long investment horizon, a recession is simply a buying opportunity.

Tipping point: Tesla -- no longer any doubt. It's real. Tesla is so far ahead of any of the others, it has to scare the likes of Ford, GM, European manufacturers, etc. The meme no longer holds: Tesla makes money on the emissions credits. Tesla is now making money ex-credits. But get this: new revenue stream -- Tesla Insurance Company (TIC). The believers will be rewarded.

What about the others? Analyst who probably knows most about this -- Jon McNeill, former Tesla president. At the beginning of a multi-decade growth of EVs: Rivian, F-150 Lightning, Lucid, Cadillac, and several others mentioned.

Triple-digit oil? GasBuddyGuy, Patrick De Haan, thinks it is possible. Agrees with others: OPEC is deliberately holding oil production down -- OPEC controls a third of global production. What if De Haan is wrong? What if OPEC doesn't have the supply? We've posted Saudi's supply graphic and it's not pretty. One may want to follow Josh Young

*********************************
Let's Go, Bakken

Bakken story of the month: the story is poorly written; I don't understand what happened, or better said, how it happened. The story does not mention the headline. 

Here's the story in a nutshell (I may have it wrong; see linked article):

  • oil spill on private land
  • private landowner sues oil operator
  • suit goes on for many years, in and out court over several years
  • court dismissed with plaintiff fails to show
  • oil spill suit dismissed after discovery that sanctions limited damages to $1

Active rigs:

$82.80
10/21/202110/21/202010/21/201910/21/201810/21/2017
Active Rigs2714627154

One well coming off confidential list: Thursday, October 21, 2021: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 239 for the year:

  • 37228, conf, Whiting, Sorenson 21-6H, Bully

Initial production for #37228 --

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
8-20211258021155
7-20211710225807
6-20211894736790
5-20211585025009
4-20211013518838

RBN Energy: E&Ps start hoarding cash from rapidly rising inflows. Archived.

For many years, the exploration and production sector of the oil and gas business was notorious for its profligate ways. When energy prices were high and money was flowing in, many E&P companies would spend like BeyoncĂ©. But the commodity price volatility of the past few years gave E&Ps a new-for-them financial discipline. Even when prices rebounded, they held down their capital spending, and focused on paying down debt and returning cash to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks and dividends. But there’s been a shift in all that lately, with a bigger share of the inflowing money now being used to build cash balances. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze recent cash flow allocation by the 38 E&Ps we monitor and examine what this new shift may mean.

Bowline -- Nine Point Energy

This is simply some housekeeping. I just realized I do not have "Bowline" linked at the sidebar at the right, nor was it ever added to "Bakken operators."

So, we will start with the links. These are all old stories; again, this is simply some housekeeping.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Edition -- October 21, 2021

Finally. Oil is now a top story over at CNBC. OPEC+ is holding four million bopd in storage and won't release it despite the US, China, and India all asking for more oil. Where are the US shale producers? PXD: if producers put more oil on the market rather than return cash to the shareholders, the companies get punished. ESG mandates. Why is OPEC+ sitting on spare capacity? Fears of new Covid variants.

Covid: UK and Russia out of control. Perhaps you can connect the dots between Russia's Covid outbreak; Nord Stream 2; and,

Wework: breaking story. Crash.

Oh, oh: the fear of peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply. -- Eric Nuttal, in response to news that XOM is considering cutting back on its major projects over concerns of peak supply. Link here

ISO NE: the spikes continue. 

For investors, BofA warns of 0% returns over the next ten years: this is very, very cool. The other day -- only two days ago -- I provided a long list of suggestions from Jim Cramer which he called "inflation winners." Yesterday, Bank of America provided a similar list -- amazing how it overlapped Cramer's list. Absolutely amazing. BofA's list:

  • Energy
    • XOM
    • CVX
    • COP
    • year to date, Chevron shares are up about 30%, Exxon Mobil has returned just over 50%, while ConocoPhillips is up a whopping 88%.
    • to put that in perspective, the S&P 500 returned around 20% during the same period.
  • Financials
    • Goldman Sachs
    • Morgan Stanley
    • JP Morgan
  • Materials
    • Freeport-McMoRan
    • DuPont

Polls are starting to show how concerned Amricans have become with regard to Resident Biden's policies. I have no sympathy. Especially for the folks in Minnesota who prefer CBR to pipelines. 

Supply shortages: I make it a point to visit Target every day. It's a one-minute bike-ride from our little hovel. I purposely walk down each aisle to note the shelf shortages: most remarkable -- the McCormick spices. Completely empty. Seriously. Salad dressing shelves are also quite empty. But have you noticed what is not in short supply? Beer. Speaks volumes. Huge trucks needed to supply beer and yet there seems to be no shortage. 

Netflix outage overnight was reported. "Down Detector" is the site to visit when one has questions whether a blog site or streaming service is down. With regard to Netflix, it was down for about an hour. 

Apple: one small chip, the M1 Max chip may have more raw GPU performance than a PlayStations 5. Link here.

All Pipelines Lead To Patoka, IL -- I Can't Make This Stuff Up -- Reason #7 Why I Love To Blog -- October 21, 2021

It's my impression that the EIA is pushing the renewable / global warming agenda. It's only my impression; I'm not saying it's true, but I about fell off my chair when I saw the EIA release yesterday. 

Because this post will get buried by additional posts over the next three hours, I will be-posting this.

From the EIA yesterday, in four screenshots:


I think that which is most surprising in the second and third screenshots is how quickly this all changed. It is absolutely amazing, at least for any of us paying attention.

Gasoline Demand -- Oh, Oh -- October 21, 2021

This is "oh,oh" for another reason. 

Over the past several months I have been surprised that US gasoline demand was not increasing in line with the improving economy. I attributed that to the rising price of gasoline and "demand destruction," as they say. 

Well, well, well, look at this. And I say "oh, oh" because if gasoline demand is going up despite prices going up, all things being equal, prices should continue to go up. 

The increase looks real, trending back to 9.5 million bbls per day as a four-week average. The most recent week: 9.6 million bbls.