Rants And Raves -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48670NATIONALPARKS.

Link here.

To tell the truth (and I always do) I didn't expect this when I clicked on the article in The New York Times after seeing the headline.

Here's the headline and the lede:

The writer is advocating for more federal support, not less, so that even more visitors can show up and national parks. 

And then this: how reduced federal funding will impact national parks:

By April, the effects of reduced staffing reportedly had been felt. Arches National Park in Utah had terminated some of its ranger-led tours. Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument in Colorado had closed on Mondays and Tuesdays for lack of staff. Pinnacles National Park in California had canceled its summer ranger programs. Great Smoky Mountains National Park had closed several campground and picnic areas. And the list went on.

It seems to me, one wants to use strongest arguments possible when arguing for one's position.

But in this case, number one on the list: with Trump cuts, "Arches National Park in Utah had terminated some of its ranger-led tours.

For the record, I've been going to federal and state parks like forever, and not once have I required, desired, or participated in a ranger-led tour. Not entirely true, I suppose. I was probably part of some ranger-led tour when I traveled with my family, but I honestly can't recall. 

Number two on the list: Florissant Fossil Beds National Monument in Colorado. Until this moment I had never even heard of FFBNM, and now it was closed Mondays and Tuesdays for lack of staff. OMG. Closed on Mondays and Tuesdays. Most national parks were closed for a full two years just a few years ago due to Covid. 

Number three on the list: Pinnacles National Park in California had canceled its summer ranger programs. Like FFBNM, I had not heard of Pinnacles -- vaguely it seems I recall that name but can't find it on a map. [For the record, the park is about an hour south of Gilroy, off US Highway 101.] For the record, I've been going to federal and state parks like forever, and not once have I required, desired, or participated in a summer ranger program. 

I'll quit there but I think you get the point.

If this is the worst that the Trump cuts will have on the National Park system, I think we will do just fine. I have no idea how the loss of these programs will result in the "end of America's national parks as intimated by the headline. Wow.

On another note, all of these programs would be better served by self-supporting non-federal funded programs, both for the parks and for the visitors. 

"Blaming everything" on Trump -- it gets tedious.

Rambling. Thinking Out Loud -- Time For A Musical Interlude -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48669MONOPOLIES.

ASML: is a monopoly and cannot be broken up.

TSM: is a monopoly and cannot be broken up.

Nvidia: may not be a monopoly, but its moat is huge -- so huge, one could argue it's a monotony; regardless, can't be broken up.

AMIRITE?

Other than ASML, TSM, NVDA it's just a matter of staying alive.

Obviously that's hyperbole. But not much.

Link here.

Holy Mackerel! Will Trump Get Any Credit? This Is WITHOUT The Fed's Help -- It's All Trump -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48668MARKET.

Doesn't look like a recession to me.

GDP: 2Q25 GDPNow forecast -- up to 4.6% -- up from 3.8% -- which was up from 2.1%. Holy mackerel. 

Link here.

Doesn’t Look Like A Recession To Me —June 2, 2025

Locator: 48667MARKET.

Headline today:

S&P 500 saw best May since 1990.

********

Meanwhile

20-y/o journalists. It took a year and a half to plan a hate crime that was nothing more than two Molotov cocktails. That was The New York Times takeaway. That was the headline. I can’t make this up. I wonder how The New York Times would headline the “9-11” terrorist attack today.

 

The market today: wow, this really encapsulates the market today -- it's all about steel! Who would have thought? 

Top performers, today, note:

• mining:
• Southern Copper (SCCO): up 1.7% today.
• FCX: up 4.34%and
• Vistra (say what?)
• largest competitive power generator in the US
• HQ: Irving, TX
• incredibly diverse energy platform (natural gas, nuclear, renewables)
  

Bottom performers:

• not shown: Lucid; market cap: $16 billion
• quick: what percent of Lucid is owned by Saudi Arabia? 60% 
• 60% of $16 billion = $10 billion
• as bad as its stock performance has been, it's gotten even worse this year, if you can imagine that!
• the big question: how much longer will Saudi Arabia stay engaged with Lucid?
• Lucid's cash burn in 2024 was $3 billion, slightly better tan 2023 
• Saudi Arabia just placed a $5 billion bond offering
• so basically, Saudi Arabia is issuing debt to keep Lucid afloat
  
• likewise, not shown, Rivian, down 3%
• largest stakeholder in Rivian? Amazon
• Amazon holds 160 million shares; almost 15% of the company (Rivian)

Is it safe to say, EVs:

• steel: just got more expensive, and not by just a little bit.
  
• batteries: EV manufacturers can't make them without Federal subsidies and help from China.
  
• software: upwards of one-third of total wholesale cost of an EV: software
  
• 2020s estimate: 10% - 20% of total wholesale cost of an EV
• by 2030, software is expected to represent 30% to 40% and possibly higher in premium or autonomous-capable EVs

Why is software so important for EVs?

• battery management systems (BMS)
• autonomous driving features (ADAS, navigation, sensor fusion)
• infotainment systems
• vehicle control software
• cybersecurity

Mileage -- 2007 Chrysler Minivan -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48666ARCHIVES.

Tag: mileage, Chrysler minivan; wife's soccer van.

"Boom And Bucket" Scholarships -- Updated Williston State College Scholarships -- Huge Opportunities -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48665B.

A reader sent me an e-mail requesting that I link scholarship information at this link:

Link to Boom and Bucket. 

I have no relationship or connection with Boom and Bucket other than posting this link. 

Background.

The "Boom and Bucket" reader had seen a post on the blog with regard to Williston State College scholarships. That blog was posted back in 2014. 

I posted all of that on the blog early this week but today the Marketing Director at Williston State College sent me an e-mail telling me the college has updated their scholarship information and asked if I could update the blog.

The Williston State College scholarship information is linked here.

Dated October 30, 2024, the press release states that WSC has introduced a newly restructured scholarship program designed to provide students with great control and flexibility. 

The updated Homesteader Scholarship now offers up to $4,000 per year, allowing students to use funds for not just tuition and fees, but also for books, housing, and food. This expanded coverage provides greater freedom for students to tailor their aid to meet their personal financial needs, giving them more control over how they manage college expenses.
 
“By expanding the scope of how scholarship funds can be used, we’re helping students make their financial aid go further,” said Hunter Berg, Executive Director of the Williston State College Foundation. “This flexibility means that more students can afford college without the financial strain that often comes with hidden costs like housing and books.”

The newly revised WSC scholarships:

• Offer up to $4,000 per year: Funds can be applied toward tuition, fees, books, housing, and food.
• Comprehensive coverage: Scholarship dollars now cover a variety of college-related costs, helping students manage more than just tuition.
• Maximized aid: Scholarships are applied after federal grants such as Pell Grants, allowing students to make the most of their available resources.

Hopefully that's all correct. If any of the above information is incorrect or needs to be edited, please let me know.

On another note, something I think about often:

Both my brother and I benefited from low-interest rate loans from the Alva J. Field Memorial Trust many, many years ago. 

KODA Resources With Two New Permits -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48664B.

Note: every time you read a headline that says "XYZ Corp, Inc" is laying off hundreds of workers -- think this: many of those workers are software engineers no longer needed because of AI. Think about that. We'll eventually see articles along this line. Just remember: you read it here first. LOL.   

Transistors: this past month I've been focused on semiconductors and transistors. I now understand everything. That was easy.

• Marconi and radio waves; okay;
• invention of vacuum tubes; okay;
• archaic computers that could do little; mostly novelties; okay;
• Fleming and the thermionic diode; okay;
• amplification; okay;
• telegraph relay; okay;
• Lee de Forest and the vacuum tube triode; 
• the third filament, the grid; long distance telephone calls; okay;
• on/off -- determined by the voltage
  
• Boolean logic; okay;
• Boolian logic could be represented by electronic circuit diagrams; okay;
• ENIAC: 500 operations per second (Philadelphia)
  
• Los Alamos: ENIAC made the Manhattan Project possible
• 190 vacuum tubes: 1 one-bit computer 
• lasted 116 hours, on average, before a bulb burned out
• this was key, how we jumped from light bulbs to transistors: 
• aliens gave us semiconductors and transistors; okay;
• insert the Beatles here; okay;
  
• Steve Jobs invented the iPhone; okay;
  
• then Nvidia. End of history as we know it.
  

A musical interlude: I think it's time to learn "why 1965 changed music forever." LOL. By far, not my favorite YouTube video by a long shot, but it's great history. Link here.

• after midnight;
• I argue that 1969 was the best year ever for rock and roll music.
• the video above (link here) suggests that the "1969 era" began in 1965
• I can't argue
• Bob Dylan runs through the one-hour documentary.
  

*************************
Back to the Bakken

A reader received an offer today: the details.

WTI: 462.98.

Active rigs: 29.

Two new permits, #41974 - #41975, inclusive:

• Operator: Koda Resources Operating
• Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County)
• Comments:
• Koda Resources has permits for two Amber wells, NENE 21-160-103, 
• to be sited 1119 and 1154 FNL; and, 131 FEL.

Minor Notes -- Late Afternoon Trading -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48663SAUDI.

Just announced, Saudi Aramco: Saudi Aramco completes $5 billion bond issuance. Link here. Look how little $5 billion is compared to all the other figures with regard to Saudi Arabia today. Compare to Warren Buffett:

Record levels: Berkshire Hathaway's cash holdings were over $334 billion at the end of 2024, almost double the $167.6 billion reported at the end of 2023. By March 31, 2025, this increased to $347 billion. Buffett holds $1 for every $20-bill held by the US Treasury IIRC and need to be fact-checked.

This $1 for every $20-bill held by the US Treasury is an interesting number. It is said that Cornelius Vanderbilt also held that amount of money in cash at his peak. Again, IIRC and needs to be fact-checked. 

CLF: ask "is it time to sell CLF." Surprising answer from ChatGPT. Of course, the answer is "it depends." But most interesting is the 12-month price range estimate. CLF's p/e ratio is n/a.

Texans Don't Like Taxes: $10B Property Tax Cut Deal In Sight For Texas Homeowners -- Monday, June 2, 2025

Locator: 48662TEXAS.

Link here.

Texas lawmakers are on track to reduce property taxes for homeowners and businesses after a pair of bills were greenlit by the House on May 20, 2025.

The overview:

• Senate Bill 4 would raise the statewide homestead exemption from $100,000 to $140,000, applying only to taxes levied by public schools.
  
• SB 23 would give homeowners who are over 65 years old or have a disability a $200,000 exemption from school taxes.
• House Bill 9: one day earlier, House lawmakers accepted senators’ amendments to House Bill 9, which would exempt up to $125,000 of businesses’ personal property from taxation.

More details: All three bills are accompanied by proposed constitutional amendments, which are set to appear on Texas voters’ ballots in November. The state will spend about $10 billion on the tax cuts.

The debate: On the House floor May 20, lawmakers discussed concerns that the tax relief package would not directly benefit millions of renters or impact municipalities' ability to raise tax rates.

This Is Not An Investment Site -- This Informaiton Is Posted To Put The Bakken In Perspective -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48661INVESTING.

Broadcom: minutes ago, I asked ChatGTP, "what's going on with Broadcom today?" GTP's answer:
AVGO is trading at $248; up $.6.40; up 2.6%. 

That comes with a long "essay" on what's driving AVGO today -- a much better synopsis than even what Motley Fool would provide at a subscription price. A lot of investing websites are in deep trouble. Top of that list: Motley Fool, and SeekingAlpha.

• likewise, Drudge Report? Useless.
• likewise, ZeroHedge -- I haven't visited that site in years.
• next up: ChatGPT will send me a daily summary of news I'm interested in based on what my internet surfing has generated.
• this will end my dozens of newsletter e-mails that I don't want showing up in my in-box every day. 

Apple: I also did the same thing with Apple (AAPL) -- completely negates any need to try to find the story on CNBC for a quick summary.

Now, for ChatGPT: "what's the real story on Ukraine's drones hitting Russia over the weekend?" ChatGPT will provide a more balanced summary on the continuum between The New York Post and The New York Times. 

Critical: social media comments regarding SaaS and VMware following Beth's comments.

Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  
• Longer version here.  

 

For traders, and perhaps, investors: what's more important -- the monthly "Consumer Confidence" numbers or Tom Lee's prognostications on CNBC?

• Bitcoin:
• in 2019, a CNBC host dismissed Tom Lee's advice to invest 1 - 2% of a portfolio in Bitcoin at $5,000 as "crazy"; was the host Becky Quick, taking her "advice" from Warren Buffett? It seems likely.
• today, Tom Lee says Bitcoin is going to $3,000,000 -- that's $3 million -- per coin.
• S&P 500:
• today, Tom Lee says he thinks a new bull market started on April 7th and he never changed his year-end price target for the S&P 500 of 6,600. Today, the S&P 500 is 5,900. At 6,600, that would be a 12% increase.

Like many investors, because of my fear of getting really, really wealthy, I'm missed:

• Bitcoin;
• Netflix;
• Palantir;

Fortunately, I did not miss:

• Nvidia;
• AVGO;
• ORCL;

But I'm still disappointed.

Living in a state with no income tax has softened that blow a bit (missing Netflix, Palantir). 

Tom Lee is a regular guest on CNBC but has never wavered; he has always stood his ground.

• Benjamin Graham --> Peter Lynch --> Warren Buffett --> Tom Lee?

Beth, from over the weekend, tag AVGO, Boradcom:

EOG -- Utica -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48660B.

This story has been posted on the blog at least twice, but it's being re-posted. It's a huge story

Link here. Social comments, if any, might be found here.

Encino Utica + EOG: in the Utica Basin will produce 275,000 boepd and control inventories of more than 2 billion boe.

What I missed before:

• Encino Acquisition Partners LLC is the largest oil producer in Ohio.
• EOG's holdings in the Utica will grow its operations in Ohio "into a 275,000 boepd operation and turn it from a developing asset into a foundational one. 

From the linked story: 

EOG chairman and chief executive officer Ezra Yacob said May 30 that his team has been working in the Utica with and alongside Encino for years and added that both leadership teams “found ourselves at a point where it made a lot of sense going forward to consolidate these positions.” Encino Acquisition Partners was launched in 2017 by Encino Energy, also of Houston, and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board when they acquired the Utica operations of what was then Chesapeake Energy Corp.

EOG today controls about 460,000 net acres in eastern Ohio and is producing about 40,000 boe/d while Encino owns about 675,000 acres and is producing 235,000 boe/d. When combined—the cash-and-debt acquisition is expected to close in the second half of this year—the operations will control more than 2 billion boe of reserves.

Much, much more at the link. This takes me back to Mark Papa and EOG back to the Bakken in 2007. .

But now its natural gas, not oil. About 45% of the companies' prospective joint productin i th Utica will be natural gas.

• natural gas: 45%
• natural gas liquids: 30%
• oil: 25%

From the story:

EOG will apply some of its technologies to Encino’s operations—since 2022, EOG’s average production per foot drilled in the volatile oil window has been about 10% higher than Encino’s—and thinks both entities’ teams should be able to bring learnings from their work on liquids to gas operations.

Andrew Dittmar, principal analyst at Enverus Intelligence Research, said the Encino deal lets EOG—which hasn’t made a big acquisition since buying Yates Petroleum in 2016—accumulate inventories in an energy market that has seen other players strike big deals in recent years (OGJ Online, Sept. 9, 2016).

And then the Bakken reference:

“Targeting this area provided for a significantly less expensive acquisition cost for undeveloped locations than what could be found in the Permian while also getting a much less developed asset than what would be available at scale in areas like the Eagle Ford and Williston Basin,” Dittmar said.

CLR Reporting Some Nice Dalin Wells In Divide County -- June 2, 2025

Locator: 48659B.

CLR is reporting some nice wells in Divide County, north of Williams County.

This well came off confidential list February 2, 2025 -- earlier this year. 

• 39389, conf, CLR, Dalin 2-16H, Hamlet,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2024	3071	3924

I posted that information, of course, but didn't think anything about it -- except Divide County is reporting some nice wells -- but a reader alerted me to the well this morning. Thank you.

It's an extended long reach well (three sections; "three-mile horizontal"), running north, bottom hole stopping just short of the section line and about half-a-mile from #41823, with rig-on-site.

The well:

The second well on that pad, runs south:

• 39390, F/A, CLR, Goodson 2-21H, Hamlet, t--; cum 129K 4/25;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2025	30	18300	18605	33496	26196	25798	0
BAKKEN	3-2025	31	23209	23185	39398	27976	27019	546
BAKKEN	2-2025	28	24577	24429	44284	27064	25643	1063
BAKKEN	1-2025	31	22515	22488	47203	25601	24720	881
BAKKEN	12-2024	30	38582	38575	97535	43389	37801	5588
BAKKEN	11-2024	4	2172	1398	11531	2756	2380	376

Several wells of interest:

• 19183, 1,171, CLR, Dalin 1-4H, Hamlet, t10/10; cum 313K 4/25; initial production back in 2010:

BAKKEN	3-2011	29	9612	9948	4835	23111	23111	0
BAKKEN	2-2011	27	10546	10791	4161	10684	10684	0
BAKKEN	1-2011	27	7301	6546	3697	5469	5469	0
BAKKEN	12-2010	27	11247	11903	4637	15443	13243	2200
BAKKEN	11-2010	30	17430	17409	7273	16613	15363	1250
BAKKEN	10-2010	31	24652	24351	20278	23450	21363	2087
BAKKEN	9-2010	1	1108	684	2008	675	0	675

• 19183, mmall production jump in 2022, violating the theory:

BAKKEN	9-2022	30	1729	1522	749	2226	1821	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	1794	2091	730	2199	1786	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1933	1767	742	2063	1584	60
BAKKEN	6-2022	22	329	350	458	564	307	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	24	416	317	122	722	332	79
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	400	304	178	680	380	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	566	623	263	929	510	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	428	336	197	727	349	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	30	529	677	205	820	415	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	629	644	210	1029	610	0

• 20130, 332, CLR, Fortier 2-17H, Hamlet, t8/11; cum 106K 4/25; unremarkable well; poor to average at best; no halo effect;
• 18445, 110, CLR, Fortier 1-17H, Hamlet, t3/10; cum 123K 4/25; unremarkable well; poor to average at best; no halo effect;

Again, a huge thanks to the reader for alerting me to the Dalin wells.

Curious About AI? June 2, 2025

Locator: 48658B.

Link here.

Perplexity: it may be time to take another look. Founded in August, 2022, by Aravind Srinivas, Denis Yarats, Johnny Ho, and AndyKonwinski, Perplexity AI has rapidly grown, attracting significant investment from prominent figures such as Jeff Bezos and organizations like Nvidia. As of December, 2024, the company was valued at $9 billion.

Apple is actively exploring the integration of AI-powered search engines like Perplexity Ai into it Safari browser. Also, OpenAI and Anthropic.

It should be noted that Safari searches recently  declined for the first time in 22 years. I know I now use ChatGPT as complementary to wiki depending on my search needs.