Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Poll -- May 17, 2017

As a rule I don't "do" non-energy, political polls. But this one caught my eye. Good, bad, or indifferent, what are your thoughts on a "special counsel" being appointed to investigate the "Russian thing." Poll at the sidebar at the right.

The Katie Ledecky Page
From NBC Sports, April 14, 2017: 
Katie Ledecky is using this week’s meet to start building toward the Tokyo Olympics in three years.
In her first meet in an Olympic-size pool since the Rio Games, Ledecky won the 400m freestyle in 4:01.01, the fastest time in the world this year by 1.51 seconds.
It’s the fastest time ever swum in the month of April — and Ledecky’s been coming to this April meet for five years. That’s a strong indicator that Ledecky is on track for the U.S. Championships in June and the world championships in July. She doesn’t seem tired at all from her first NCAA season at Stanford.
Notes From The Man-Cave

I'm debating whether I need a wide-screen television out here -- one of those humongous flat screens -- out here on my patio -- my man-cave.

I can watch anything I want, streaming cable television on my laptop. Right now I'm listening to "best instrumentals of all time." The UE Boom is truly incredible. But wide-screen television would be a hoot.

North Texas: clear skies; 88 degrees, feels like 84 degrees according to "weather channel."

Earlier Sophia and I were in the pool for two hours. We had to finally get out when her mother called and said it was time for her to come home. Wow, she's a lot of fun. (Sophia, not her mom. LOL.)

The highlight of the day for me was visiting the Kimbell Museum of Art in Ft Worth, special exhibit, the Phillips Collection. I came across a nice Frank Lloyd Wright book in the gift/book store there and will add it to my collection (Amazon, of course). The book gave me a great idea on how to "dispose" of our Stickley furniture when we are moved into an assisted nursing home.

This Amazon Prime is simply astounding. I forgot how convenient it was. I ordered the book, and just got an e-mail confirmation saying it would be here Friday (barely two days from now).

On a night like tonight and listening to some wonderful easy listening instrumentals, I am taken back to the wonderful months I spent in northern Yorkshire. One only goes through life one; make the most of it. 

Active Rigs In North Dakota Increases By One -- To 52 - May 17, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs522683190189

One new permit::
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30799, 1,844, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16B, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum --
  • 31765, 847, Hess, HA-State-152-95-1621H-6, Hawkeye, t4/17; cum -- ; see 19072 and 19073;

Five Guys Beats In-N-Out As America's Favorite Burger Chain -- May 17, 2017

From Business Insider, and why "America" is the greatest country in the universe:
America has a new favorite burger chain.
Five Guys, the East Coast-based burger chain famous for its simplicity and myriad toppings, claimed the top spot in the latest annual "Harris Poll EquiTrend" survey.
West Coast-cult favorite In-N-Out held the title for the past two years but came in second this year.
See what they had to say at the link.

Five Guys is my brother-in-law's favorite hamburger chain ... or maybe it's In-N-Out. I honestly forget. He lives out in Huntington Beach, CA, and knows his hamburger chains.

Ball of Dust

From The Williston Herald: Main Street merchants tired of all the dust. 

Mexico: Natural Gas Very, Very Tight

From Oil & Gas Journal: Mexico is experiencing a very tight natural gas market in part because its dry gas production is declining for lack of any onshore gas-directed drilling.

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Later This Week -- May 17, 2017

Friday, May 19, 2017
  • 32454, SI/NC, MRO, Garness USA 31-4TFH-2B, Antelope, no production data,
  • 32455, SI/NC, MRO, Cunningham USA 31-4H, Antelope, no production data, 
Thursday, May 18, 2017
  • 29600, 299 (no typo), Lime Rock Resources, Kenneth Stroh 3-12-1H-143-97, Cabernet, producing, a half-dozen or so Stroh wells came off-line 4/17; it is amazing how much better the Stroh wells are now that OXY USA is no longer in the picture; truly amazing, 21 states; 2.7 million lbs; t11/16; cum 36K 4/17 (off-line as of 4/17, along with a number of other Stroh wells -- stay tuned;
  • 32453, SI/NC, MRO, Marcella USA 21-4TFH, Antelope, no production data, 
  • 32503, 1,282, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-11H, McGregory Buttes, 34 stages, 5.1 million lbs, t12/16; cum 91K 3/17;
32503, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-11H, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

29600, see above, Lime Rock Resources, Kenneth Stroh 3-12-1H-143-97, Cabernet:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

DAPL Flowing! Skoal! -- May 17, 2017

We're back to "skoal." See skoal!

Active rigs:

Active Rigs502683190189

RBN Energy: natural gas projects vie to provide SCOOP/STACK takeaway capacity.

DAPL flowing: from KFYRTV -- Energy Transfer Partners informed regulators they planned to start flowing the DAPL Sunday; Monday, the operator said they were able to stick to their schedule. A huge "thank you" to one reader for suggesting this a couple days ago; and, then for a second reader sending me this K-fire link.

The Market And Energy Page, T+117 -- May 17, 2017

Weekly petroleum data:
  • crude oil inventories: dropped 1.8 million bbls vs 2.2 million forecast (at this rate, it will only take 95 weeks to get US crude oil inventory to historical levels of 350 million bbls)
  • crude oil inventories: upper half of the "average" (wink, wink) range for this time of year
  • separate data from API suggested there was actually a gain of 882,000 bbls
  • refinery utilization at 93.4% 
  • all in all, not a bullish report; following the report, where is WTI?  $49.01, up a bit for the day
  • gasoline demand up slightly but well below what it was last year at this time
Days of crude oil supply in the US:

As recently as January, 2015, there were 22 days of crude oil supply in the US and the US has gotten along fine with as few as 17 days of crude oil supply. Last week crude oil supply, measured in days, hit an all-time (?) record, of 34 days. It's now back to around 31 days but much longer than the historical "average" of around days, and double what we really need.

Futures: have come off their lows since early last night. Now down about 73 points.

Reminder: today we get the "drawdown" numbers. EIA/Platts released a forecast yesterday. EIA forecasts a crude inventory drawdown of 2.2 million bbls -- Platts. At that rate, 2.2 million bbls/week, it will take 77 weeks for US crude oil inventory to get back to historical average: 350 million bbls in storage.

Gasoline demand: numbers starting to line up. DOT is reporting that "vehicle miles traveled" (VMT) was up only 0.5% in March, 2017, year-over-year.

Volatility: TGT -- was down to $54.53 yesterday. In pre-market trading, TGT is up almost 8%, up about $4.27.

The Political Page, T+117 -- May 17, 2017

One Republican, a US congressman, says if reports are accurate that Trump pressured Comey to drop Flynn investigation, then worthy of impeachment. Consider the source. It appears some folks think that if Trump is impeached, Hillary becomes president. Another day in the market like today (Dow down 350 points), more than one Republican will start talking impeachment. Where's Ivanka when you need her? Where's Jared?