Friday, November 9, 2018

United Van Lines Annual Movers Study -- 2017 Data

I remember posting this in 2016; I can't recall if I posted the 2017 data (2018 data not yet available):
  • United Van Lines Annual Movers Study, link here.
  • Blue: high inbound
  • Gray: balanced
  • Yellow: high outbound
The interactive map at the link, if the map is not "moving," click on the arrow in the lower right hand corner below the map. It appears the "arrow" bleeds over into the sidebar at the right. If you can't get map to work on this site, go to the linked site above.

From the linked site, part of the narrative:
“This year’s data reflects longer-term trends of movement to the western and southern states, especially to those where housing costs are relatively lower, climates are more temperate and job growth has been at or above the national average, among other factors,” said Michael Stoll, economist and professor in the Department of Public Policy at the University of California, Los Angeles. “We’re also seeing continued migration to the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West as young professionals and retirees leave California.”

Snow Pack -- Western US -- Gettng Ready For Skiing -- November 9, 2018

Snow pack in November, 2015, government figures:

Snow pack in November, 2018, same government source (google: snowpack westwide snotel; or google: usda nrcs snow pack westwide SNOTEL):

It appears President Trump is cutting government. Note the small print in the graphic above:
Notice: We anticipate this map will not be available next year (2019) due to staffing constraints. Alternative maps:
And, yes, that link works -- at least it did for me just now.

Wow, look at Colorado and central Montana/Idaho this year -- all dark blue. Lots of snow for the Kennedy grandchildren who have apparently never seen snow. It looks like the far northwest and northern Nevada/California may have less snow than in 2015. But regardless, both 2015 and 2018 had significantly more snow cover across the entire region that the 1981 - 2010 median.

The current snow pack is compared to the "Basin-wide percent of 1981 - 2010 median."
  • red: > 50%
  • orange: 50 - 69%
  • and so on, to
  • light blue: 130 - 149%
  • darkest blue: > 150%

Is MRO Getting Ready To Frack Four Wells Near The Quale Wells In Reunion Bay? -- November 9, 2018

Two Quale wells are coming off line. Is MRO getting ready to frack neighboring wells? The Quale wells that have just come off line:
  • 22288, 1,466, MRO, Joanne Quale USA 21-30H, Reunion Bay, t1/13; cum 313K 9/18;
  • 22289, 1,444, MRO, Joanne Quale USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t12/12; cum 365K 9/18
Note: one was a TFH well (and a slightly better well) and the other was a middle Bakken well
Neighboring wells:
  • 34597, SI/NC, MRO, Sheldon USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data;
  • 33923, SI/NC, MRO, Maleckar USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, no production data;
  • 33924, SI/NC, MRO, Skadeland USA 31-30TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data;
  • 33925, SI/NC, MRO, Wendell USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, no production data;

Whiting's Obrigewitch Wells Have Been Updated -- November 9, 2018

Link here.

Regular Unleaded Gasoline -- North Texas (DFW Area)

I saw a service station selling regular, unleaded gasoline today for $2.19 / gallon. Generally, it's going for about $2.29 in the DFW area right now. And, no, no one is offering "S&H Green Stamps." When I was growing up, I do believe our "silverware" set grew through these stamps.

By The Way, Did She Mention My Name?

Wow, this is such a great song. I have not listened to it in ages. Gordon Lightfoot wrote it, recorded it, released it but I was interested in hearing someone else sing it.

Did She Mention My Name?, Mac Wiseman

I'm just on the blue side of lonesome, right next to the Heartbreak Hotel, in a tavern that's known as Three Teardrops on a barstool not doing so well. -- John Prine, YouTube here.

For a nostalgic romantic, "Did She Mention My Name" is tough on a Friday night.

Random Update Of Four Whiting Buckman Wells In Southwest Bakken -- Bell Oil Field -- November 9, 2018

See more at this post.

The well:
  • 22286, 1,669, Whiting, Buckman 34-9PH, Bell, t9/12; cum 243K 9/18;
Relevant production profile:


The graphic:

"Holy Icicles, Batman, It's Cold Out There" -- November 9, 2018 -- Deer Hunting Season In North Dakota Opened Today

I do believe these are the coldest temperatures I recall seeing this early in the "season" in North Dakota. From KFYR vis social media. A big "thanks" to Don for sending me these (plus a lot more).

Forty-two days until winter. Just saying.

Forecast. Blue = cold. Dark blue = really cold.

Twenty-Nine Permits Renewed -- November 9, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66523765193

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Rimrock (4); Nine Point Energy
  • Fields: Heart Butte (Dunn); Williston (Williams)
  • Comments: Rimrock has permits for a 4-well Two Shields Butte pad in section 8-149-92; Nine Point Energy's one permit is a Little Muddy permit in section 8-154-100
Twenty-nine permits renewed:
  • CLR (15): seven Durham permits in McKenzie County; in Williams County: four Dover permits and four Hartford permits -- an 8-well Dover/Hartford pad in 19-155-97;
  • Murex (4): one Evar P. Skari permit; one Vernone E.Skari permit; one Iner Skari permit and one Laura Skari permit, all in McKenzie County
  • EOG (4): four Mont permits in Williams County; all on lot 2, section 34-155-102;
  • BR (2); one Mathistad permit and one Croff permit, both in McKenzie County
  • Denbury (2): two CHSU permits in Bowman County
  • Nine Point Energy: one Novak permit in McKenzie County
  • XTO: one FBIR Lawrence permit in Dunn County
The NDIC office will be closed Monday; there will be no report released Monday, November 12, 2018.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+1 -- November 9, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken

Note: I am taking a small break from blogging about the Bakken today. I will post some energy stories and I will post the NDIC data that is released today and any really important Bakken / energy news but other than that. The rest of this page: nothing about the Bakken. It's for the archives for the granddaughters. If you came here for the Bakken scroll down or to the sidebar at the right.


Update 6: From wiki, re: Twin Peaks (The Return), 2017. On ShowTime; 18 episodes though it was filmed as one long movie, but it was cut into 18 pieces ... see one of many clips.
The series garnered critical acclaim, with praise centering on its unconventional narrative and structure, visual invention, and performances.
Many publications, including Rolling Stone, The Washington Post, and Esquire, named it the best television show of 2017.
The film journals Sight & Sound and Cahiers du cinéma named The Return the second-best and best "film" of the year respectively, sparking discussion about the artistic difference, if any, between theatrical film and TV series in the era of streaming.
Update 5: whenever I meet a veteran, I always ask what him/her what assignment he/she enjoyed most. Today, one of the F-16 pilots I met said Aviano, Italy. He and his family had been stationed there for three years. I told him I was sent to Aviano (while assigned to a base in Germany) for one month for a temporary duty assignment. I brought my family (wife and two daughters). I said we really enjoyed the food. He said the food was delicious but the problem: it was all Italian. He was serious. LOL. He was comparing his Aviano experience to that of Germany. He was correct: in Germany one could get almost any type of cuisine. Turkish food was particularly prevalent.

Update 4: a real gentleman -- I knew him well; incredibly kind and a great friend of my father's.

Update 3: the books I am enjoying --
  • The New Journalism, Tom Wolfe
  • The God Problem, Howard Bloom
  • The Peabody Sisters, Megan Marshall
  • Aeneid, Virgil, translation by Frederick Ahl
  • Genesis, the Bible
I was disappointed in the latest issue of The London Review of Books. One article was interesting, on Graham Greene, but it turned out to be lacking.

Update 2: I am pretty much taking the day off from blogging about energy, or politics, or the market.
I haven't watched a bit of television today or listened to any news. I heard earlier that the market was down but have no idea what it is doing now. I see that natural gas was up a bit today and posted a note about that earlier. I'm in a great mood.
Except for a couple of driving assignments later this afternoon, between now and tomorrow morning, I'm completely free.
For the past hour or so, I continued a project I started earlier this week, going through the pilot episode of Twin Peaks (television; David Lynch; Laura Palmer; yes, that Twin Peaks) scene-by-scene, taking notes, to see how well put together this pilot was: to see how David Lynch introduced no less than two dozen characters that were there for the duration; to see a handful of one-time appearances (I find it interesting to see which characters did not continue in the series and which did, including the Log Lady); to see how he introduced story line after story line in this one episode. Wow, there were so many subplots. How he integrated the music. His fascination with young beautiful women. His fascination with really quirky visuals.
Update 1: this is where I plan to be this Sunday morning. The manager personally invited me to come in Sunday for a free breakfast for veterans at McDonalds. Because of the glare, it's a bit hard to read, but there it is. I plan to take Sophia.

Original Post 

Sorry for the delay in posting today. Veterans Day events at the schools.

If you came here for the Bakken, please feel free to skip this post. Lots of meandering. Rambling. Nothing about the Bakken.

I'm in a great mood and off my meds.

So, I will post stuff and then update, instead of a lot of separate posts.

Thank you to all fellow veterans -- all gave some, some gave all.

See Sergeant First Class Leroy A. Petry at this site, Medal of Honor recipient. The speaker at one of the events I attended today spoke with Sgt Petry this past week. The speaker asked Sgt Petry if he would have done anything differently, knowing the outcome. Sgt Petry, losing his dominant right forearm in the firefight trying to toss a live grenade back at the enemy, only said this, "I should have used my left hand."

Our oldest granddaughter was kind enough to take a photo of me after dropping her off for school -- the background isn't all that impressive but I'm thrilled we got the photo:

The flight jacket in the photograph above was the first flight jacket I was ever issued, and for the most part, it was the only one I ever wore for thirty years. It's a cold weather flight jacket. I believe, but I forget, I think I was later issued a warm weather flight jacket. It is customary for flyers to turn in their flight gear upon separation from the Air Force, including of course their custom-made helmet, but I was allowed to keep everything, including the helmet, which I believe was valued at $300 in 1983. I guess after 30 years in the service they don't ask for any personal gear back: I didn't have to turn in anything.

Back in 1982 or thereabouts, I completed flight training in San Antonio, and returned to my home station, Grand Forks Air Force Base with flying orders in my hand(s). Those orders were my ticket for issued flight gear: including cold weather gear for North Dakota. I still have all of it. The flight jacket was previously worn by a "Major Baird," a B-52 weapons system operator (WSO or "whizzo".) See photograph below. The original insignia on the jacket was that of a major; at the time I was issued the jacket I was a captain so I had to take off the gold leaves and replace them with silver bars.

Some years later, all flyers (first, just the pilots; and later, all those on flight status -- WSOs; flight surgeons; flight nurses; etc) were issued a WWII-like leather jacket -- as an incentive to keep pilots on active duty. I refused to take one. I didn't like freebies and I didn't like bribes. I loved the Air Force and would have stayed almost no matter what.

But about two years after I was "eligible" for one of those highly sought-after jackets, a junior medical officer was able to talk another junior procurement officer into obtaining a jacket for me. These were highly controlled; one had to personally sign for a jacket. how he was able to pull that off, I will never know. But, in the end I did get a jacket.

As long as I'm rambling, the rest of the story.

The WWII-flying jackets were incredible. But a lot of flyers wanted alterations. It turned out that tailors in South Korea and in Turkey made the modifications. I was stationed in Incirlik, Turkey, at the time and had my jacket modified. There were six major modifications, including additional pockets, a fixed lining, and a removable lining. The Turkish tailor drew up a piece of paper with the six modifications and one simply checked which of the six, one to six, modifications one wanted. I took all six; I've long forgotten what they all were. One included a fur collar. Faux fur, no doubt. LOL.

Stateside a 3-star general officer was aware of this. He sent me his jacket from Washington, DC, and told me which modifications he wanted. He only wanted three or four. I duly checked off the ones he wanted on the Turkish checklist.

I was mortified when the tailor returned the jacket to me with all six modifications! As noted, these jackets were controlled and even a general officer was not going to be happy trying to explain why he wanted a new jacket and then on top of that explaining why he modified official Air Force gear. I assume that was frowned upon.

I did not think he would notice but was it the better part of valor to tell him or not?

I inserted a heartfelt letter of apology when I mailed the jacket to him, assuming my career was over.

It turned out he was thrilled with all the modifications and thanked me profusely, including the fur collar, of which I think he was unaware was one of the options.

More photos later, perhaps.

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #4 -- US Natural Gas Fill Rate -- They're Reading The Blog -- November 9, 2018

This is why I love to blog. I learn a lot from my readers. When I started blogging on the Bakken in 2007 I knew nothing about natural gas. I still know very little but anything I know is due to readers educating me. Thank you.

It looks like winter is here -- at least this weekend over most of the southern and eastern US, according to weather forecasts I happen to catch.

I assume "everyone" saw this coming several years ago (after all, we know that the earth will be 2 degrees warmer one hundred year from now) but it certainly seems like the mainstream media is now just hearing about it. All of a sudden a gazillion news stories on how cold it will be this weekend.

I don't know if it was a reader or if I noted this myself but I'm quite "proud" of it either way.

At $3.722, the price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub, I suppose) spiked over 5%

First, the note today from CNBC sent to me by Don:

This is what makes this so exciting. Starting last spring I noted how low the natural gas fill rate was and how long it was taking to "turn the corner." See this graphic from May 3, 2018:

After that graphic I started posting the "fill rate" graphic every week; to the first tag, I added a second tag when it appeared this could be an interesting winter.

Since May, 2018, we have been tracking this, and, now, November 9, 2018, CNBC is starting to report it.

This is the most recent graphic, from yesterday:

This is what will frustrate me.

In a few months the "grey area" in the graphic above will be extended downward and after a few weeks folks will forget that it was 2018 when we set a new 5-year low. To prove my point, by looking at the graphic above, in what year did the "current/previous" 5-year low occur? Was it last year? Two years ago? Five year ago?

Having said that, we will have a small clue going forward. In the graphic above, look at the blue line after April 18, 2018. When did the blue line start to flatten out instead of "going up" as expected: Answer: May/June, 2018, timeframe.

When did it become obvious that we were setting a new low that was going to be sustained? Answer: July/August, 2018, timeframe.

So in the future, the five-year low between October, 2016, and May, 2018, will remain unchanged, but after August 1, 2018, "we" set a new five-year low.

It might be interesting to compare the NG-fill-rate graphic above with this graphic:

Getting back to the natural gas fill rate, if you've read this far, be sure to read this post based on a long note from a reader who follows the natural gas story very, very closely.

By the way, the RBN Energy graphic shows the same thing noted above: after April, the fill rate should continue on an upward trajectory. But note, that for 2018, that upward trajectory unexpectedly plateaued about June, 2018, and then dropped below the five year low in the July/August time frame.

By the way, this last graph answers the question: what year was the previous five-year low? Answer: 2014.

Random Update Of Two Oasis Muri Wells In Banks Oil Field -- November 9, 2018

Coming off confidential list today:
  • 34269, conf, Oasis, Muri 5198 11-4 14T, Banks, producing nicely,
The graphic:

This well was fracked recently:
  • 33240, A, Oasis, Muri 5198 12-4 7B, Banks, t6/18; cum 107K 9/18;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Neighboring producing well:
  • 18908, 1,587, Oasis, Berquist 33-28H, Banks, t6/11; cum 389K 9/18
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Extrapolation: 4,874 bbls over 24 days yields 6,100 bbls over 30 days.

WTI Drops Below $60 -- November 9, 2018

Only one well coming off the confidential list today --Friday, November 9, 2018:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Active rigs:

Active Rigs66523765193

RBN Energy: more coal-fired power plants closing on uncompetitive economics.
Gas-fired power generation in the U.S. has been making impressive gains lately and that trend looks likely to continue.
Power demand is growing quickly and generation fueled by cheap natural gas is taking an ever-increasing market share of the new and existing load from more expensive generators like coal and nuclear, which is leading significant numbers of those plants to shut down.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) earlier this year forecast that combined-cycle, gas-fired generation capacity could rise by 6.1 GW between now and 2020, which ­— if fully called upon — would equate to roughly 1 Bcf/d of gas demand.
That growth would displace some older gas-fired generation but also fill the void left by retiring coal-fired and nuclear power generators — two sectors EIA expects to decline over the next couple of years by 14.1 GW and 1.7 GW, respectively. What’s more, surging gas production and rapidly filling pipeline expansions in recent months suggest that gas-fired generation demand may be growing even faster than expected. Today, we take a look at how gas generation has been besting coal-fired plants on fuel costs in recent years, and at the string of nuclear and coal-fired generators that are being permanently retired.
See also the graphic at this post.