Monday, July 22, 2019

Closing Out The Day -- July 22, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

HAL jumped 9% today after announcing earnings.

SDI. Coincidental to the earlier post/announcement, SDI reported earnings today. The company missed earnings expectations, $0.87 vs $0.89. Shares were up slightly, perhaps better said, flat, but the fact that shares "held," suggests to me a) folks knew the whisper number was closer ot $0.86; and/or, b) guidance was great.

Nucor: for investors, this name keeps popping up.

Futures: up slightly. Is there still some doubt about the budget deal? One week away, is there doubt about "Fed" rate cut. I'm not convinced the Fed will cut rates. If it does, a quarter point and the last cut this year? Later, this from zerohedge:

And, later, also from zerohedge:

Hmmmm! If this is accurate, it speaks volumes about the ability of the White House to "turn on a dime," to coin a phrase. A baggie of fentanyl is generally about 1/10th of a gram. The individual of interest was caught with 1,500 grams, which would yield about 15,000 doses on the street. Wholesale fentanyl runs about $6,000/kg; retail Fentanyl runs about $1.6 million/kg. Source. Obviously, prices vary considerably. New Hampshire has been particularly hard hit by opioid abuse, apparently #1 among US states for fentanyl-related deaths.

Sam Snead: 82; said  he should have been credited with 89. Tiger Woods, 81; Golf Digest says he should be credited with 95. Fight's on. Tiger Woods is 43 years old. Easily has ten more years if he can bear the pain. He can minimize the number of tournaments he plays but the PGA requires minimum number of starts each year. It appears there are only six more PGA tournaments this year.

No glass ceiling. Link here.

Can't Wait To See The Market Tomorrow -- July 22, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Color me surprised. I had no idea this would happen so quickly. I honestly did not think this would happen before the August recess. Congress doesn't like doing anything until they absolutely have to. I guess they were afraid of hearing from their constituents during August when/if the market tanked.

Huge. But this is clearly the top non-energy story of the week. I suppose we need to see some of the details, but the headline and the lede blew me away. Link here.

Color me surprised.

Look how far out into the future this extends -- two years. That takes us well past the next presidential election, and maybe into the next mid-term cycle. Depends.

Debt? According to at least one Nobel Laureate, debt doesn't matter:

I find this whole economic "thing" absolutely fascinating.

Last Friday, in case you missed it:

Keeping America Great; Steel Mills All Along The Gulf Coast -- July 22, 2019


Later, 7:59 p.m. CT: after posting the original post, a reader noted --
It is virtually impossible to overstate the impact of an abundant, cheap energy supply ... most particularly when referring to industrial (high consuming) end users.
When we, the public, regularly note the benefits of 2 buck/gallon gasoline, these industrial heavyweights are scanning regions with 5 and 6 cent per kilowatthour with which to do their thing.
With Henry Hub pricing looking to stay low for decades, the latest iteration of Combined Cycle Gas Plants springing up all over, the USA will continue to be THE place for business, especially heavy manufacturing.
As a sharp counter point, virtually the ENTIRE Green New Deal would have taken this country in the completely opposite direction.  
Comment: when I first started blogging back in 2007, I called the Bush II era a "lost decade." Many others subsequently said the same thing. I think most of us thought a second "lost decade" would be virtually impossible, but Barack Obama managed to pull it off. Clearly, the US is starting to make up for lost time.

For much of the past decade (yes, it's been that long) I've opined that the major energy hiccup for the US was Obama killing the Keystone XL. I'm not so sure any more. If the Keystone XL had gone in on time, it's very possible the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian may have taken another direction. Not ready for prime time, but I am starting to question whether killing the Keystone might have worked out to our advantage. Something to think about. 

Original Post

I find this fascinating. It is simply staggering what is happening from Corpus Christi to Houston to New Orleans. 

Link here. Data points:
  • US steelmaker Steel Dynamics (SDI) chose this site over a site in Louisiana
  • 30 miles northwest of Corpus Christ
  • electric arc furnace: almost $2 billion to build; operations should begin in mid-2021
    • 3 million short tons/year of hot-rolled coil (HRC)
    • will also have a galvanizing line with a capacity of 550,000 st/year
    • will also have a paint line with a coating capacity of 250,000 st/year 
  • Sinton, TX:
    • SDI's seventh EAF-based steel mill; third flat-rolled facility
    • joins Butler, IN, and Columbia, MS -- the latter facilities can produce 6.4 million st/year of HRC
First question: what are all these still mills in the deep south, and not up in Pennsylvania, New York, etc.

By the way, it was George Bush II that really got Texas rolling when he declared Texas open for business some years ago.

Much more at the link, including news of other steel mills being built in the US.

Six New Permits -- July 22, 2019; Bakken Flooding Update

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5667583268

Six new permits, #36768 - #36673, inclusive:
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Capa (Williams); Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comment: Hess with six permits for a CA-Russel Smith/BL-A Iverson pad in Capa oil field/Beaver Lodge, section 24-155-96; note that some of the wells target the "Devonian" rather than the Bakken
That was all.

Bakken Flooding

Bakken flooding update: link here

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- July 22, 2019

The Royal Navy: unable to stand up to a third-rate navy, the Iranian Navy, or whatever they call themselves. 

Ice cream day: In 1984, President Ronald Reagan designated July as National Ice Cream Month and the third Sunday of the month as National Ice Cream Day. In 2019, National Ice Cream Day was yesterday, Sunday, July 21. But various outlets will continue to celebrate during this week. Sophia celebrates ice cream day as often as she can. LOL. 

Ronald Reagan: wow. Also appointed first woman to the US Supreme Court. GOP.

Fact checking, from Ther Burlington Free Press -- Did you miss out on National Ice Cream Day this past Sunday? Don't worry, the whole month of July is National Ice Cream Month, thanks to President Ronald Reagan. In 1984 there were two joint resolutions, one in the House of Representatives and one in the Senate, asking Reagan to proclaim July as National Ice Cream month and July 15 as National Ice Cream day.
Reagan signed a presidential proclamation on July 9, 1984, citing that ice cream was an important food to the American people and that the sweet frozen treat be celebrated in July.
Lutefisk? Celebrated throughout America during the autumn and winter.

Electoral College: needs to be free -- Bernie Sanders.

Apollo 11: I watched a lot of documentaries on the "moon landing" last week on "public television." The constant theme when they concluded the documentaries: "we" need to save the earth. LOL. George Carlin was right. I was not "moved" by the theme that "we" need to save the earth. What incredible hubris. Two things jumped out at me.
First: after decades of looking for extra-terrestrial intelligence, none has been found. In fact, the best "we've" been able to do it identify possible candidates where there may be intelligent life -- and yet "we" have found none.

Second: there is nothing "in the middle." At the far end of the continuum an incredibly brilliant, diverse Earth. Everything else: grey and black rocks (a lot of the universe reminds me of the burned out embers I clean out of the Weber grill every week) and/or gaseous orbs (e.g., Jupiter and the stars, including "our own" star). But that's it: the entire universe appears to be a) empty; b) black and grey rocks; c) gaseous orbs; d) one earth. Truly, truly awe-inspiring. Scientists, in general, do not like going down that road.

One exception: Privileged Planet. 

One of my favorite books is The Privileged Planet: How Our Place in the Cosmos is Designed for Discovery, Guillermo Gonzalez and Jay Richards, c. 2004. 

EVs Gaining In North Dakota And Other Stories Of Fiction -- July 22, 2019

Wow, talk about a long, long article -- the writer must be looking for a Pulitzer Prize in Journalism.

The article over at The Grand Forks Herald goes on and on and on.

The article was sent to me by a reader. Thank you.

141 electric vehicles registered in North Dakota, according to the article.

The article does not provide a denominator, the total number of registered vehicles in North Dakota. It looks like there are about 800,000 vehicles registered in North Dakota, most of them being trucks (about 600,000). Link here.


Gaining momentum.

Doubling that number and we get to 0.04%.

North Dakota ranks near the bottom among US states in number of EVs.

Charging stations:
  • ND has 22 charging stations, but no "fast" chargers
  • nearest "fast" charger is in Moorhead, MN
  • last time I checked, there were no Tesla chargers in North Dakota
  • still seems to be accurate based on a note dated May 18, 2019: no Tesla chargers in North Dakota
Wild enthusiasm:
[A spokesman for the American Lung Association and Clean Cities] also praised West Fargo Public Schools for purchasing the state’s first all-electric school bus. The larger the diesel vehicle, the more emissions it tends to produce, he said.
“Just taking one diesel bus off the road and replacing it with electric, that makes a big difference,” he said.
A 1,000-mile journey begins with the first step.

The article concludes:
Jason Bohrer [president and CEO of the Lignite Energy Council] said the Tesla handled icy conditions this past winter as well as a sport utility vehicle, but bitterly cold temperatures do pose a problem for North Dakota drivers when it comes to battery life.
Just as frigid air rapidly drains the battery in cellphones held outside a jacket pocket, it also sucks down the charge in electric vehicles.
Josh Schaffner [Capital Electric Cooperative, Bismarck, ND] has noticed that while driving the Chevrolet Bolt, and Bohrer says the same is true of the Tesla.
Sitting in his Bismarck office with the Tesla parked in back on a recent July day, Bohrer looked out the window to the warm, sunny weather.
“Today, I could drive that from here to Fargo,” he said.
When it’s 20 below, he’s not sure he could make it to Steele.

Steele is about 40 miles east of Bismarck.

Global Warming Propaganda With Cartoon

Link here.

And Other Works Of Fiction

Book sales.

"Conservative" book on Kavanaugh: #1 in sales
New York Times: #6 -- based on a handful of bookstores which The NYT won't identify

Link here.

From the linked article:
Conservatives have repeatedly protested how The New York Times "Bestseller List" doesn't live up to its name. 
We have reported the pattern with David Limbaugh and Dinesh D'Souza. The newest example came from Sean Davis of The Federalist, and the book in question is Justice On Trial by Mollie Hemingway (of The Federalist) and Carrie Severino. The book about the Kavanaugh confirmation shot to #1 on Amazon, but the Times was playing games....again. Davis said they "fudged" it.
But you know, considering this comes from The New York Times and from sales in likely liberal bookstores, even getting to #6 is quite impressive.

Fact checking: the article is correct. Here it is -- #6 on the list.

Becoming by Michelle, was #4 and falling.

But Kavanaugh beat out a book on John F Kennedy, Jr, #7, which, of course, speaks volumes on this list.

Keeping America Great -- US Oil Exports Reach New All-Time High -- July 22, 2019

From the Rigzone staff, data points:
  • June, 2019, US crude oil exports, an all-time high: 3.3 million bopd
  • US net petroleum imports reduced to 1.3 million bopd 
  • total US petroleum exports, an astounding 8.4 million bopd, a June record
  • an increase of almost 4% from May and 8% year-over-year
  • And now get this -- (rig counts are meaningless, but not to be taken out of context) --
    • record US crude oil production of 12.2 million bopd was sustained in June, 2019, "despite less drilling", [i.e., less active rigs]
  • Reasons for record production:
  • increasingly low breakeven prices
  • strong productivity gains in key production regions
  • incremental additions of new pipeline infrastructure
Again, because this can easily get lost in all the data: record US crude oil production of 12.2 million bopd was sustained in June, 2019, "despite less drilling", [i.e., less active rigs].

There is still "groupthink" and lack of understanding of shale production by many analysts, it seems to me. Hubbert's "peak oil" thinking continues despite the fact that the theroy has been proven wrong. I get pushback when I write that -- some say that Hubbert was talking about "conventional" oil not "tight oil." I don't know. I haven't read much of what he actually wrote. But what I have read suggests that was not the general consensus at the time, that when he developed his theory he was talking about conventional oil only. Interestingly, it appears to me that the theory will eventually be proven wrong in conventional oil also, but that's a blog for another time.

Legacy Fund Deposits For July, 2019

Link here.

Down a bit from last month (June, 2019) but the single July, 2019, deposit was still greater than all but two yearly averages since the Fund began.

Energy Contribution From From Wind In ISO-NY --- Drum Roll -- 0.33%; From Crude Oil: 1.3% -- July 22, 2019


Later, 12:54 p.m. CT: wow, at ISO-NE -- natural gas -- 72%.

Original Post

ISO-NY (link here) and ISO-NE (link here).
  • 11:11 a.m. ET --
    • New England: $35; 72% natural gas;
    • New York: $30
      • dual fuel, natural gas or other fossil fuel (like coal): 36%
      • natural gas: 21%
      • nuclear: 24%
      • hydro: 16%
      • wind: 0.33% -- really?  (less than oil which is about 1.3%)
In other words, crude oil is providing almost 5x the amount that wind is providing to generate electricity in ISO-NY.

I'm sure it will "pick up" this afternoon.

ISO-NY: all fuel --

ISO-NY: renewable (it's all hydro -- and hydro has been around "forever," not because of global warming but because it was available and affordable) --

  • at 10:55 a.m., wind accounted for 0.12% of total energy, down from 0.33% just one hour earlier
  • percent coming from "dual fuel" (all fossil fuel) is increasing -- fossil fuel is dispatchable, wind is not -- and we're seeing this first hand

CLR Reports A Nice Bakken Well -- July 22, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5567583268

Wells coming off confidential list today, over the weekend --

Monday, July 22, 2019: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter;
  • 35758, SI/NC, Petroshale, Helen 2TFH, Eagle Nest, no production data,
  • 35176, SI/NC, MRO, State Eileen 34-36TFH, Killdeer, no production data,
Sunday, July 21, 2019: 36 for the month; 36 for the quarter;
  • 35432, 1,741, CLR, Syverson 4-12H, East Fork, t5/19; cum 17K over 15 days;
Saturday, July 20, 2019: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter;
  • 35919, SI/NC, Petroshale, Helen 1MBH, Eagle Nest, no production data,  
  • 35175, SI/NC, MRO, State Eggert 24-36H, Killdeer, no production data,
  • 34891, 27 (no typo), BR, Gorhumbian 3A MBH-ULW, 4 sections, Bailey, t6/19; cum --;
RBN Energy: EagleClaw Midstream's expansion into Permian crude gathering.
Acquire, expand, and acquire again. That’s proven to be a successful strategy for a number of midstream companies providing crude oil and natural gas gathering services in the Permian Basin. In the past couple of years, the hydrocarbons-packed shale play in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico has been experiencing major gathering-system buildouts and Pac-Man-like acquisitions that aggregate small and midsize systems into regional behemoths. A case in point is EagleClaw Midstream, which has used the acquire-and-expand approach to great effect, most recently with the concurrent acquisition of Caprock Midstream Holdings and Pinnacle Midstream — two deals that, by the way, gave previously gas-focused EagleClaw a strong foothold in Permian crude gathering. Today, we discuss EagleClaw and its holdings in the Permian’s Delaware Basin.

We’ve now posted a dozen blogs in our series on Permian crude gathering systems, and a key takeaway so far is that these systems — now with thousands of miles of pipeline among them — have been developed by folks with a strong entrepreneurial streak. In many cases, these companies with extensive midstream experience (and, often, private-equity backing) started out small, building or acquiring gas and/or crude gathering systems of only a few miles each. Then they expanded them, and soon thereafter, they either bought out nearby systems or got bought out by someone else. Today’s is another story like that.

Renewable Energy Unable To Keep Up With Demand -- Major Power Outages From Michigan To New York -- July 22, 2019


July 22, 2019: something seems a bit dysfunctional upstate and in NYC. Remember: it was the governor that a) banned fracking; b) banned an expansion of a natural gas pipeline to Brooklyn. From
Some 30,000 Con Ed customers in New York City were left without power temporarily yesterday as the utility fought a string of outages caused by the heat wave that struck the city this weekend.
“Here’s where we stand: Con Ed is taking 30K customers in Brooklyn, including Carnarsie, Mill Basin and Flatbush, temporarily off power so it can make repairs and prevent a bigger outage,” New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said in a tweet on Sunday afternoon.
In a later tweet, De Blasio said Con Ed would begin bringing back customers to the grid at a rate of 500 at a time beginning midnight.
The heat wave hit New York on Friday and although on that day Con Ed said it was confident in the capacity of its equipment to withstand a spike in consumption, events proved otherwise. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo condemned the blackout and threatened to revoke Con Ed’s license. “There is no God-given right that says Con Ed must be the utility company,” Cuomo said as quoted by CBS New York. “They can be replaced.”
"500 at a time." 500 every hour? 500 every day? 500 every week? These guys are good at obfuscation.

Wow, Amazon is lucky they didn't move to Brooklyn. Wow, Brooklyn is lucky Amazon didn't move to NYC.

We're starting to see what happens when the inmates run the insane asylum. 

Original Post

Data points (google: major power outages from Michigan to New York); also at Daily Express;
  • some of the power outages due to storms; others due to grid simply being unable to meet demand due to air conditioning demand/heat
  • power outages reported in multiple states, leaving hundreds of thousands without power
  • storms
    • heavy storms in Michigan over weekend: 800,0000 homes, businesses without power
    • apparently the largest storm in southeast Michigan in "years"
  • excessive demand due to heat
  • meanwhile in the northeast, the power outages were all liked with heat wave
    • NYC mayor Bill de Blasio declares a state of emergency as temperatures surge above triple digits
    • 12,000 scattered outages across Brooklyn and Queens
    • Con Ed asked customers in certain neighborhoods in southeast Brooklyn to conserve energy while company crews worked to repair equipment problems
    • NYC directed office buildings to set thermostats to lower than 78 degrees through Sunday to reduce strain on its electrical grid
    • a day earlier, a commemoration of the 1969 moon landing planned for Times Square canceled due to heat

ISO New England.

The Word Of The Day

I keep a list of new words that I come across when reading.

Some time ago I came across "casuistry. " I added it to the list of words I share with Arianna.
casuistry: a process of reasoning that seeks to resolve moral problems by extracting or extending theoretical rules from a particular case; generally pejorative, arguments that destroy morality, efface the essential differences between right and wrong; oversubtle, intellectually dishonest, sophistical
Yesterday while reading James Shapiro's The Year of Lear: Shakespear in 1606, c.  2015, I came across "Jesuitical equivocation." I had never heard that phrase before. A quick google search brought me to this site:
"From 'aequivocatio' to the 'Jesuitical equivocation' : changing concepts of ambiguity in early modern England.
I wouldn't have thought much about the article but there in the abstract, casuistrical:
In my second chapter I examine how the doctrine evolved from its first statement in 1584 by Doctor Navarrus, through the Casuistical tradition to Henry Garnet’s infamous A treatise of equivocation.