Sunday, February 25, 2018

Random Update Of Two Wells Near Neighboring Nelson Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- February 25, 2018


Later, 9:50 p.m. Central Time: it did not make sense why #25581 was so much better than #19970 coming back on line after neighboring wells were fracked. It is most likely due to the fact that a very nice well, a Keeling well (#32731) in the same immediate area was also recently fracked, and this well is very close to #25581.

Original Post
Whiting's Nelson wells in Traux field are coming off confidential list this week.

These two wells were taken off-line while the neighboring Nelson wells were fracked:

FracFocus does not have data for a refrack for this well:
  • 25581, 2,667, Whiting, P Evitt 154-98-15-12-19-16H, Truax, 38 stages; 5.2 million lbs, 4 sections; API - 33-105-03083, t11/13; cum 307K 12/17; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

FracFocus does not have data for a refrack for this well:
  • 19970, 502, Whiting, Nelson 5-18H, Truax; API - 33-105-02043, t8/11; cum 155K 12/17; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Great, Great Article On GroupThink And Anthropogenic Global Warming -- February 25, 2018

At the Science & Environmental Policy Project weekly archives, click on "Feb 24, 2018" and a PDF will quickly download.

From the monograph, a nice definition of Groupthink:
Groupthink describes systematic errors made by groups when making collective decisions. It was popularized by Research Psychologist Irving Janis in his 1982 book of that title. Janis used it to describe the poor US preparation, despite warnings, for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, and the failed US-supported invasion of Castro’s Cuba in 1961. His work suggests that pressures for conformity restrict independent and critical thinking by individuals of the group, biasing the group’s analyses.
The forward is written by
Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, emeritus, of MIT, discusses how well this concept applies to the Climate Establishment and its promotion of fear of carbon dioxide (CO2)-caused dire global warming:
“…Booker’s relatively brief monograph asks a rather different but profoundly important question. Namely, how do otherwise intelligent people come to believe such arrant nonsense despite its implausibility, internal contradictions, contradictory data, evident corruption and ludicrous policy implications. Booker convincingly shows the power of ‘groupthink’ to overpower the rational faculties that we would hope could play some role. The phenomenon of groupthink helps explain why ordinary working people are less vulnerable to this defect…”
Janis's three rules of groupthink and the author explaining his book:
Janis’s first rule is that a group of people come to share a particular way of looking at the world which may seem hugely important to them but which turns out not to have been based on looking properly at all the evidence. It is therefore just a shared, untested belief.
Rule two is that, because they have shut their minds to any evidence which might contradict their belief, they like to insist that it is supported by a “consensus”. The one thing those caught up in groupthink cannot tolerate is that anyone should question it.
This leads on to the third rule, which is that they cannot properly debate the matter with those who disagree with their belief. Anyone holding a contrary view must simply be ignored, ridiculed and dismissed as not worth listening to.
What my paper does is look again at the entire global warming story in the light of Janis’s rules, and to show how consistently they explain so much of the way it has unfolded all the way through.
This is what I did not know:
The alarm over man-made climate change was first exploded on the world in 1988 by a tiny group of scientists who had become convinced that, because both CO2 levels and global temperatures were rising, one must be the cause of the other. Unless something very drastic was done, they urged, the planet was heading for catastrophe.
In November that year two of these fervent believers in what they called “human-induced climate change” were authorised to set up the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. This would report to the world’s politicians on the basis of computer models programmed, according to their theory, to predict just how fast the world was likely to heat up over the next 100 years.
With startling speed, their theory was soon proclaimed as being supported by a scientific “consensus”, backed by governments, all the main scientific journals and institutions, environmental pressure groups and the media.
In fact right from the start, many scientists, like the eminent physicist Richard Lindzen of MIT, were highly sceptical, both of the theory itself and of those computer models. These, as Lindzen wrote, were so narrowly focused on CO2 that they were far too simplistic to allow for all the other natural factors which shape the earth’s climate.
“But such dissenters were ignored.
And for nearly 20 years the ‘consensus’ rolled on, ever more extreme in its apocalyptic claims, with each new IPCC report scarier than the last. By 2006 Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth was outdoing them all.”

EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2018 Released -- Projections Out To 2050 -- February 25, 2018

Clicking on the following link will result in a pdf being downloaded: Annual Energy Outlook 2018.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter -- 2018

Berkshire Hathaway owns shares in many companies, but in some cases, Berkshire Hathaway owns entire companies, such as BNSF.

I was unaware of the number of automobile dealerships Berkshire Hathaway owns. From the annual letter, 2018:

Peak US Shale Could Be Four Years Away -- Headling -- February 25, 2018 clickbait headline today: peak US shale could be four (4) years away.
U.S. shale production growth has outperformed even the most bullish forecasts, forcing OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to revise up American supply growth projections month after month.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also expects shale/tight oil to continue to grow in all possible modeled scenarios for the next four years, according to its Annual Energy Outlook 2018 published this month.
While the EIA is not predicting what will happen, it is modeling possible production scenarios under certain assumptions. Under one of those modeled projections—the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case—the assumptions applied are lower resources and higher costs. In this model, U.S. tight oil production—including the plays Bakken/Three Forks/Sanish, Eagle Ford, Woodford, Austin Chalk, Spraberry, Niobrara, Avalon/Bone Springs, and Monterey—is expected to rise from 4.96 million bpd in 2017 to 5.59 million bpd in 2022, and then to start declining on a steady downward trend by 2050, when tight oil production is expected to be at 4.42 million bpd.
But then this:
This is one of the side cases in EIA’s models, and one of the most unlikely, because it assumes no technological breakthroughs, lower resources, and higher costs. Under this model, total U.S. crude oil production is pegged at 9.14 million bpd this year, while figures are currently available, showing that production is already above 10 million bpd and likely to average more than 10.5 million bpd this year.  
Much more at the link.

From the EIA, August 22, 2016:

Week 8: February 18, 2018 -- February 24, 2018

The most entertaining "phenomenon" of the week has been the "Tesla tweets."

WTI trending toward $64.

Making America great again: jobless claims at 45-year low.

Perhaps the biggest story in the Bakken this month: emergency task force activated to look at ways to handle surging natural gas and natural gas liquids production in the Bakken.  But perhaps as big: Andeavor to build a huge NGL logistics hub at Belfield. Also, here. And, here.  And, here, a $150 million investment in the Bakken.

Another big story: the supertanker test was successful.

Putting the Bakken into perspective: Kashagan missing its targets.

Commentary: glut or no glut.

Top Stories in the Bakken

NDIC hearing dockets for March, April posted
MRO reports a record well
Year-end production data for North Dakota 

Analysts worry about a fracking sand shortage  

Natural gas
ONEOK to build another 200-million cf/d natural gas processing plant, Demicks Lake, near Watford City 

WPI receives approval for Valley Expansion Project, north side of Fargo
Denbury reports a nice horizontal well in the Madison 

Bakken economy
Huge jump in Legacy Fund deposit 
Bakken 2.0: four new permits; nine permits renewed; and, four DUCs completed 

Market action for selected Bakken operators over the past six months
Primer on natural gas liquids published by the US Dept of Energy 
Project Tundra and rare earths, connecting the dots
Project Tundra update

Higher Prices Will Likely Open "The Fringe" -- Western Dakota Energy Association -- February 25, 2018

For the archives: The Bakken today and some forecasts, from a presentation linked by the Western Dakota Energy Association. Clicking on this story at this link "Higher Oil Prices May Open Up “the Fringe” will open a pdf.

For the archives.

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 25, 2018

With regard to some of the wells coming off the confidential list this week:
Friday, March 2, 2018:
31581, SI/NC, BR, CCU Audubon 2-1-27MBH, Corral Creek, no production data,  
31291, SI/NC, Slawson, Serpent Federal 5-36-32TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
31127, SI/NC, Enerplus, Manx 148-93-31D-30H TF, McGregory Buttes, no production data,

Thursday, March 1, 2018:
33598, SI/NC, MRO, Rita 41-3TFH, Bailey, no production data,
33597, SI/NC, MRO, Stanton 41-3H, Bailey, no production data,
33233, 1,326, Liberty Resources, McGinnity E 159-95-31-30-3MBH, Northwest McGregor, a nice well; 27 stages; 6.5 million lbs; t9/17; cum 130K 1/18;
33161, 1,421, Whiting, Irgens 41-17-1HU, East Fork, a nice well; 40 stages; 10.1 million lbs; t9/17; cum 92K 12/17;
33133, 1,636, Whiting, Nelson 11-18TFH, Truax, a very nice well; 44 stages; 9.9 million lbs; t9/17; cum 88K 12/17; 
32731, 1,306, Whiting, Keeling 31-13H, Truax, a very nice well; 44 stages; 10.5 million lbs; t9/17; cum 107K 12/17;
31580, SI/NC, BR, CCU Audubon 2-1-27TFH, Corral Creek, no production data, 
31579, SI/NC, BR, CCU Boxcar 14-22TFH, Corral Creek, no production data, 
30266, SI/NC, MRO, Hillesland 31-3TFH, Bailey, no production data,

Wednesday, February 28, 2018:

Tuesday, February 27, 2018:
33642, SI/NC, WPX, Arikara 15-22HQL, Reunion Bay, no production data,
33353, 1,504, Whiting, Nelson 21-18TFH, Truax, a very nice well; Three Forks, 44 stages; 9.7 million lbs; white sand/mesh; t9/17; cum 82K 12/17;
33162, 1,720, Whiting, Irgens 41-17-1TFH, East Fork, a very nice well; Three Forks, 40 stages; 10 million lbs; t9/17; cum 100K 12/17;

Monday, February 26, 2018:
33619, SI/NC, WPX, Arikara 15-22HA, 
29718, 294, Nine Point Energy, Anderson 148-100-7-6-2H, Buffalo Wallow; 31 stages; 4.3 million lbs; mesh/large/small, t9/17; cum 35K 12/17;

Sunday, February 25, 2018:
31854, 574, Whiting, McNamara 42-26-2XH, Sanish, a nice well; 41 stages; 9.5 million lbs; large/medium/small; t9/17; cum 74K 12/17;
23965, SI/NC, WPX, Arikara 15-22HW, Reunion Bay, no production data, 

Saturday, February 24, 2018:
33818, 1,277, WPX, Mabel Levings 14-23HE, Mandaree, a nice well; 4 sections; 40 stages ("top sleeves @20,914 - 20,934 did not open"); 6 million lbs; 4 sections; t11/17; cum 46K 11/17;
33408, 710, Liberty Resources, Olson c 158-96-21-16-4MBH, Big Meadow, a nice well; 27 stages; 6.5 million lbs; no mesh; large/medium; t9/17; cum 59K 1/18;
33163, 1,800, Whiting, Irgens 41-17-2H, East Fork, a very nice well; 40 stages; 10.6 million lbs; t9/17; cum 106K 12/17;
32357, 1,190, CLR, Hereford Federal 2-20H1, Elm Tree, another nice Elm Tree well for CLR; TD = 26,940 feet; Three Forks 1; 61 stages; 22.8 million lbs, mesh/large/medium; t9/17; cum 130K 12/17;
31674, 1,808, CLR, Rath Federal 9-22H, Sanish, another nice Sanish well for CLR, TD = 25,322 feet; 56 stages, 19.9 million lbs; t9/17; cum 75K 12/17;
23964, SI/NC, WPX, Arikara 15-22HB,

Daimler On The Move -- February 25, 2018

Two days ago it was announced that Chinese manufacturer "Geely" had acquired a $9 billion interest in Daimler. First, I thought it was all about luxury cars; then I thought it was all about trucks. Then I thought it was all about EVs. Now: it's about all three: cars, trucks, and EVs.

I think I read somewhere Geely is the largest auto maker in China. Geely already owns (all of) Volvo, having bought it from Ford some years ago.

Today, it's being reported that China's fourth largest automaker, BAIC Motor, and Daimler plan to build a $2 billion production base in China. From the Reuters story:
In a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange dated Feb. 23, Baic said the new factory would manufacture various Mercedes-Benz products in China including "new energy electric vehicles" equipped with "high quality premium automobile manufacturing system to further improve the overall production capacity of Beijing Benz.
A Day At Six Flags Over Texas -- Dallas/Ft Worth -- Arlington, TX

With her sisters skiing in Colorado, Sophia is spending the day with her mother in Six Flags Over Texas.