Sunday, February 24, 2019

Closer Look At Four Stand-Up 1280-Acre Drilling Units Proposed By Hess For 48 Horizontal Wells -- February 24, 2019

From the March, 2019, NDIC hearing dockets, this single case (again, this is a case, not a permit):
  • 27361, Hess, Tioga-Bakken, establish four stand-up 1280-acre units (5/8; 6/7; 17/20; and 18/19-158-94); 12 wells in each; 48 wells total; Mountrail
The graphic:

Four stand-up 1280-acre units:
  • 12 wells in each of these units
So, pop quiz: what do you notice about these four 1280-acre units? Or what do these four units have in common? Later, the answer: not one of the four 1280-acre units has an active Bakken horizontal well. Generally we see an initial "exploratory" well before jumping into 12 wells for a drilling unit.

By the way, on another note, #345 (in the southwest drilling unit highlighted above) is a monster Madison well:
  • 345, 504/PNA, Hess, Tioga-Madison Unit L-144, Tioga, t8/53; cum 2.1 million bbls; 5/07; it produced oil from 1953 to 2007 (54 years) 
How To De-Clutter

Apparently there's a woman out there making millions "teaching" folks how to "tidy up."

Her manta, "if it doesn't give you joy, throw it out."

Marie Kondo. No link. Her story everywhere.

We've carried this balalaika around for two decades. Our older daughter brought it back from Russia back in 2000 or thereabouts. Somehow it ended up in our possession. I don't know if our daughter gave it to us, or somehow we knew it would be thrown out or lost forever if we didn't hold on to it.

But it just ended up on the floor, leaning against the wall, in any room, always underfoot. We never knew what to do with it. Every year it got closer (literally and figuratively) to the recycling center.

The other day I finally figured out what to do with it. I couldn't part with it. It probably has some "sentimental" value for someone.

I hung it on the wall. Yes, it gives me joy and I couldn't part with it.

My wife hasn't noticed it yet.

A Jump In Production With Many Story Lines -- February 24, 2019

See this post for background regarding this post.The well at that link:
  • 17356, 356, BR, Archer 14-25H, Charlson, t11/12/08; cum 366K 12/16
Now, a sister well:
  • 26419, 2,904, BR, Archer 14-25TFH, 33-053-05259, Charlson, t2/14; cum 528K 12/18;
Look at this production profile (only recent production):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

For newbies:
  • the overall production of 528K is not trivial
  • this well is only about five years old; and, then,
  • look at the jump in production
Now, this:
So, what caused the jump in production? From 5,000 bbls/month to 26,000 bbls/month?

I don't know. I have no idea.

All I know is that Petro-Hunt fracked a neighboring well just prior to this jump in production. The well that jumped in production: a TFH well; the Petro-Hunt well that was fracked in the immediate area: a middle Bakken well.

A lot of story lines, huh?

Graphic to follow.

Look How Far Shale Operator Debt Has Fallen -- In Just Three Years -- February 24, 2019

See this note, where it all started.

Back in the day:
  • 2012: $62 billion -- whoo-hoo!
  • 2014: $58 billion -- whoo-hoo!
  • 2016: $57 billion -- wow!
But now,
  • 2017, just over a year ago, down to $33 billion -- half what it was five years earlier
  • 2018, last year, $22 billion, about what it was eleven years ago 2007

... and, oh, by the way, US shale oil producers are setting new production records almost every month.
Something tells me there is a story there ...

With regard to tight oil, perhaps we've added another piece to the puzzle ...

Putting Things Into Perspective

Go ahead, you guys worry about debt and equity/debt ratios, I'm having a salmon dinner! Whoo-hoo!

Virtually Overnight The US Becomes The World's Third Largest LNG Exporter -- Motley Fool -- Making America Great -- February 24, 209

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

From Motley Fool via Yahoo!Finance -- why 2019 will be a big year for LNG?
Given how long it takes to bring liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals online, it's not exactly a surprise that 2019 will be a monumental year for the domestic industry. Investors saw it coming years ago. But that doesn't make the growth any less impressive.
Actually, I don't agree that it takes all that long (if you are building in Texas) -- remember, these are billion-dollar projects -- we started posting all the proposed facilities only a couple years ago, back in October 2016. Since then, a lot of terminals have come on line. Probably faster than the world can really adjust in the first place.

But I do agree with the second part of that paragraph: Investors saw it coming years ago.

Some data points:
  • by late 2018, two terminals built, capacity to 3.6 billion cfpd
    • Sabine Pass, owned by Cheniere Energy: 2.8 Bcf/d
    • Cove Point, owned by Dominion Energy: 0.8 Bcf/d
  • but by end the of 2019, four more LNG export terminals
    • will double export capacity to 8.9 Bcf/d
    • the US will become the world's 3rd-largest exporter of LNG (Qatar, #1; Australia, #2)
  • players:
    • Dominion Energy
    • Kinder Morgan
    • Sempra Energy (Cameron LNG terminal)
    • Freeport LNG (privately held)

Just When You Thought It Was Safe To Come In Out Of The Dark -- February 24, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not many investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Later, 6:06 p.m. Central Time: shale natural gas revolution began earlier, but the US shale crude oil revolution began in Montana in 2000, but the real boom began in 2007 in the Bakken, followed by the Eagle Ford and the Permian some years later. So, drawing a line from 2007 to the present, debt is now back to what it was when the boom was just beginning. Who's to say, whether the equity/debt ratio is the bigger story or whether the incredible decline in debt is the bigger issue? The decline in debt is not subtle; it's a huge decline and despite that huge decline in debt, shale production is literally setting records every month.

Original Post 

From The WJS today, on Sunday, February 24, 2019:

The once-powerful partnership between fracking companies and Wall Street is fraying as the industry struggles to attract investors after nearly a decade of losing money.

Frequent infusions of Wall Street capital have sustained the U.S. shale boom. But that largess is running out. New bond and equity deals have dwindled to the lowest level since 2007. Companies raised about $22 billion from equity and debt financing in 2018, less than half the total in 2016 and almost one-third of what they raised in 2012.

The loss of that lifeline is forcing shale companies—which have helped to turn the U.S. into an energy superpower—to reduce spending and face the prospect of slower growth. More than a dozen companies have announced spending reductions so far this year, even as crude-oil prices have rallied more than 20% from December lows. More are expected to tighten budgets as they release earnings in coming weeks.
Shares of Continental Resources Inc. fell 5.4% Tuesday after the shale company, founded by billionaire Harold Hamm, disclosed that fourth-quarter spending was almost 10% higher than analyst expectations.

Wall Street support allowed shale companies to persevere through a plunge in oil prices that began in 2014, eventually helping the U.S. surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest producer of oil, with 11.9 million barrels a day in November, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

A Parthian Shot Before I Get Off The Net For Awhile -- February 24, 2019

I'll be off and on the net today. I will be taking the middle granddaughter to Olympic Development Program (ODP) practice today in Dallas, and with driving back and forth, will be involved with that from noon to 4:00 p.m.

I will easily find wi-fi but if I don't find a sports bar I will  miss the NASCAR race; I can follow the PGA golf tournament on line and watch the entire final round this evening on the golf channel.

If you run out of things to do today while surfing the net, be sure to explore the featured blogs at the sidebar at the right, including

From Powerline today: reporting on the winter storm in Minnesota --
I wrote here about the epic winter we are having in Minnesota, hard on the heels of “expert” testimony in Minnesota’s legislature to the effect that we don’t get much snow anymore because of global warming–false, snowfall has been increasing, not decreasing–and temperatures in Duluth are no longer expected to dip below 10 degrees. Less than two weeks after that testimony was given, the winter turned brutal and the temperature in Duluth fell to 25 below zero. The Al Gore Effect lives!
Meanwhile, here in the Twin Cities, the snow continued to fall. We have already smashed the record for snowfall in February by six or seven inches, and as I type this, there is a blizzard warning in effect for tonight
The author included a photograph of icicles off his room, some of these icicles are more than six feet long.
His "Parthian shot": Memo to the alarmists who warned us that children will grow up, no longer experiencing snow: not to worry.
My Traveling Companions

Sophia's friends that she leaves in the front seat of my car.

CLR To Report Some Huge Wells This Week; With Pop Quiz -- February 24, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Note: I remain inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

I can't recall if I have ever posted this note on the blog, but I have off-line conversations with readers about the one operator and one non-operator who probably know more about the Bakken than any of the others: CLR and NOG.

CLR: because it literally has wells throughout the Basin and Harold Hamm started accumulating acreage years (decades?) before the boom began.

NOG: because it literally participates, as a non-operator, in wells across the Basin and works with almost every operator in the play. I've blogged about this aspect of NOG before; it was a good post; if I can find it, I will link it. NOG is yet to report 4Q18 earnings; I always enjoy their earnings conference call (via SeekingAlpha).

CLR said that 2018 was a transition year for them. They turned "cash flow positive" and began paying down debt.

CLR will report some very good wells this next week. Here are a few of the best. Pop quiz: when you scroll through this very, very short list (only five wells), what other bit of trivia do you notice that is not trivial?

The wells:
  • 32815, conf, CLR, Brandvik 9-25H, Corral Creek, a huge well, #16510, in the neighborhood was off-line for several months; now back on line; #29555, #23785, #23786, also all in the neighborhood, two of the three remain offline; #29555 has come back on line;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 32816, conf, CLR, Brandvik 10-25H2, Corral Creek, a huge well;  
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 32817, conf, CLR, Brandvik 11-25H, Corral Creek, a very nice well;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34591, conf, CLR, Pasadena 4-11HSL, Banks, a huge well; #21148, #23790, #23791, all in the neighborhood; the latter two were recently fracked for the first time; #21148 fracked back in 2012, showed a huge jump in 10/18; FracFocus does not show data to suggest #21148 was recently fracked; see this post (#21148);
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 32818, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, a huge well;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- February 24, 2019

Note: see this post for details regarding some of the wells coming off confidential list this week. 

Monday, March 4, 2019: 17 wells for the month; 17 wells for the quarter
35092, conf, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-9, Antelope, no production data,
32818, conf, CLR, State Weydahl 10-36H2, Corral Creek, a huge well;

Sunday, March 3, 2019: 15 wells for the month; 15 wells for the quarter
35390, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8--HLW, Siverston, no production data,
35091, conf, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-734H-10, Antelope, no production data,

Saturday, March 2, 2019: 13 wells for the month; 13 wells for the quarter
35391, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-7H, Siverston, no production data,
33234, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-4, Antelope, no production data,
33090, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 6-19H, Elm Tree, producing,
32817, conf, CLR, Brandvik 11-25H, Corral Creek, a very nice well;

Friday, March 1, 2019: 9 wells for the month; 9 wells for the quarter
34614, conf, CLR, Anderson 4X-4H1, Willow Creek, a huge well, a very nice well;
34591, conf, CLR, Pasadena 4-11HSL, Banks, a huge well;
33849, conf, Oasis, Berry 5493 41-7 7T, Robinson Lake, a nice well;
33237, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-7, Antelope, no production data,
33236, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-6, Antelope, no production data,
33235, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-5, Antelope, no production data,
33091, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 8-19H, Elm Tree, producing,
32816, conf, CLR, Brandvik 10-25H2, Corral Creek, a huge well;
24047, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-3H, Charlson, no production data,

Thursday, February 28, 2019: 117 wells for the month; 220 wells for the quarter
33238, conf, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-8, Antelope, no production data,
33720, conf, EOG, Austin 43-1113H, Van Hook, no production data,
32719, conf, EOG, Austin 46-1113H, Parshall, a nice well,  
32718, conf, EOG, Austin 465-1113H, Big Bend, no production data,
30762, conf, Slawson, Hunter 3-8-17H,

Wednesday, February 27, 2019: 112 wells for the month; 215 wells for the quarter
32815, conf, CLR, Brandvik 9-25H, Corral Creek, a huge well;

Tuesday, February 26, 2019: 111 wells for the month; 214 wells for the quarter
34896, conf, MRO, Linton USA 31-16TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
34546, conf, CLR, Pasadena 6-11H1, Banks, a nice well;
33092, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 10-19H, Elm Tree, producing,
30763, conf, Slawson, Hunter 5-8-17MLH, Big Bend, no production data,

Monday, February 25, 2019: 107 wells for the month; 210 wells for the quarter
34897, conf, MRO, Hurkes USA 41-16TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
34413, conf, Enerplus, Honey Badger 149-93-30A-31H, Mandaree, a very nice well;
33776, conf, Enerplus, Leopard 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, a nice well;
33775, conf, Enerplus, Serval 149-93-30A-31H, Mandaree, a very, very nice well;
33774, conf, Enerplus, Caracal 149-93-30A-31H-TF, Mandaree, producing,
32149, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-2, Capa, no production data,
32148, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-LE-155-96-2635H-1, Capa, no production data,
31497, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1B-7-4H, Charlson, no production data,

Sunday, February 24, 2019: 99 wells for the month; 202 wells for the quarter
34898, conf, MRO, White Owl USA 41-16H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
33093, conf, CLR, Sakakawea Federal 12-19H, Elm Tree, producing,
32150, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-3, Capa, no production data,
30765, conf, Slawson, Hunter 4-8-17MLH, Big Bend, no production data,

Saturday, February 23, 2019: 95 wells for the month; 198 wells for the quarter
34899, conf, MRO, Weidman USA 11-15TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
34766, conf, CLR, Steve 1-34H,Larson, a nice well;
34592, conf, CLR, Pasadena 5-11HSL1, Banks, a very, very nice well;
32164, conf, Hess, CA-Anderson Smith-155-96-2635H-4, Capa, no production data,
24739, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-94-15B-22-5H, Antelope, produced 261K between 10/13; and 4/16 when it was taken off-line; sundry form to start work on/about August 15, 2018 -- isolate collapsed casing; plug it; sidetrack; see details at this post;