Time For A Movie Interlude -- July 5, 2025

Locator: 48672MOVIE.

The Coen Brothers film rankings.

Link here.

Ethan Coen (by himself) and Honey Don't -- opens in theaters August 22, 2025; trailer here:

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Iran: From July, 2025 -- The Next Decade

We're going to be overwhelmed by YouTube videos on this subject for the next year. Right, wrong, indifferent. Whether one agrees or disagrees with Trump's policies, these videos are going to be ubiquitous over the next well months. Victor Davis Hanson will probably have the best analysis.

How "the" war in Iran will completely cripple Russia. Link here.

Reminder:

Seven US B-2 bombers were used to strike Iranian nuclear facilities as part of Operation Midnight Hammer.

These bombers were tasked with delivering GBU-57 MOP bunker-busting bombs. The operation targeted the Fordow and Natanz nuclear enrichment facilities.

The U.S. Air Force has 19 B-2 Spirit stealth bombers in service. Initially, the U.S. had 21, but one was lost in a 2008 crash and another in 2022.In the operation against Iranian nuclear facilities, US B-2 bombers dropped a total of 14 GBU-57 "bunker buster" bombs. These bombs were used to target the Fordow enrichment facility and a second nuclear site. The operation, named "Midnight Hammer," also involved other precision-guided weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from submarines.

The Russian void in Iran will be filled by ... not China ... but Turkey, the US, and Saudi Arabia.

We're going to get a lot of "propaganda" that China will step in to fill the void (they won't). We will also get a lot of "propaganda" that Turkey will step in to fill the void. That's partly true, but Saudi Arabia and the US will be watching closely. The economic potential in the Mideast following the 35-minute US war on Iran will be huge for those countries rushing to fill the void left by Russia, and each will want a piece of that economic pie. My hunch: Saudi Arabia is most "needful" of that potential and won't let China step on the Muslims.

The Hormuz Strait:

• I generally disregard any analyst who raises this canard: Iran can shut down the Hormuz Strait.Fact: the Hormuz Strait has never been shut down and never will be by Iran.
• If, if, if, if --- the Hormuz Strait is shut down, "we" have bigger problems than oil in the Mideast.  
• any media outlet, particularly CNBC, that talks about the risk of the strait closing tells me that CNBC is not serious on this issue.
  

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- April, 2025, Data -- May 23, 2025

Locator: 48663RUSSIA.

Link here.

Russia Oil Exports To China Jump -- April 18, 2025

Locator: 48503RUSSIA.

Link here. 

Link here: Russia foreign exchange reserves.

Saudi, Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- April 2, 2025

Locator: 48410SAUDI.

The Russian link was posted a few weeks ago; the Saudi data was just posted this morning.

Russia: link here.

Saudi: link here.

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The Book Page 

Thutmose III and Hatshepsut, Pharaohs of Egypt: Their Lives and Afterlives, Aidan Dodson, c. 2025. Notes here. 

The trick is to build the scaffolding simple enough to transfer a complicated story to Sophia. And so we begin.

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Locator: 48535B.

Gold: hit a new record high -- $3,051.96. 

Copper: hits a record; hits $10,000 in rally fueled by Trump's tariff threats.

China grid: China accelerates grid spending to absorb deluge of solar power.

Russia's oil price: drops 24% below budget target. Link here.

Most wanted:

• under Biden's administration, the FBI captured a total of four on the "Most Wanted" list
• under Trump, the FBI has already captured three on the "Most Wanted" list; new FBI director has been in office less than one full month

March Madness: Texas falls to Xavier in the final play-in game last night. My NCAA "March Madness" bracket has already crashed.

• first round, all 64 teams playing: today and tomorrow

Pemex: nationalized, again? Link here. 

In fact, it appears the entire Mexican energy sector -- fossil fuel, electricity, renewable energy -- has been nationalized. But I may have lost something in translation. 

California headlines:

• PSX plans to shut down it's refinery in Los Angeles this year; link here;
• this one refinery supplies 10% of the gasoline on which the state relies; ten percent;
  
• costly health care expansion -- for uninsured criminals -- worsens California's chronic budget deficit;
• LA city budget shortfall grows to nearly $1 billion, with layoffs "nearly inevitable";
• California's Medicaid (Medi-Cal) budget shortfall: $6.2 billion;
• University of California system begins hiring freeze amid threats to budget;
• "California's bullet train may deserve a mercy killing" -- the headline seems to be an op-ed but it's being reported by a most prestigious and credible source, CalMatters.
• Governor Newsom suggests the project connecting Sacramento to San Diego simply isn't going to happen; will now concentrate on that all-important, highly traveled corridor from Merced to Bakersfield
• Expedia shows no flights between these two cities

Sixth industrial revolution: link here. 

Sixth industrial revolution, link here:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.16.

New wells:

• Friday, March 21, 2025: 52 for the month, 167 for the quarter, 167 for the year,
• None.
• Thursday, March 20, 2025: 52 for the month, 167 for the quarter, 167 for the year,
• 41022, conf, CLR, Alfsvaag Federal 8-31H, 
• 40156, conf, Hess, EN-Schroeder-157-94-1102H-3,

RBN Energy: Mexico hoping for boom in LNG exports, but major hurdles remain.

Mexico’s LNG sector has seen notable advancements in the past year, including new export project announcements and strategic investments. But many of the proposed LNG projects require extensive pipeline buildouts — no easy task south of the border and perhaps the biggest impediment most of the export projects face. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at where things stand with Mexico’s LNG sector and the export projects under development.

Foreign Exchange Reserves In Russia And Saudi -- September, 2024

Locator: 48614SAUDI.

Link here.

Saudi, August, 2024, link here:

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- April, 2024, Data

Locator: 47169RUSSIA.

Link here.

TGIF -- A Gaggle Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List; The Market? Higher For Longer -- February 16, 2024

Locator: 46833ECON.

Wow, another beautiful day in north Texas, although it will be cooler over the weekend.

We have a four-day weekend, so we'll be going down to San Antonio, simply for a road trip.

The gap widens between investors and savers, link here: 

PPI: I see PPI came in "higher than expected." LOL. As with the CPI, it did not come in higher than expected, it "came in higher than hoped." LOL.

• higher for longer;
• the gap widens between the well-off and the middle class
• the gap widens between the homeowners and the home buyers
• the gap widens between investors and savers, but at least savers are getting a bit more for their money
• the gap widens between Wall Street and Main Street
• the gap widens between Main Street and Oak Street
• the gap rises between those who can raise their prices and those who cannot.
  

Another buying opportunity, although that may not last. The Dow is only down only 89 points and well off its lows. 

PPI: definition and explanation at this link. Bottom line:

• CPI: retail inflation; the inflation you and I see
• PPI: wholesale inflation: the inflation the Heinz CEO sees, and which he said he won't pass on to consumer (wink, wink)

Yesterday I wrote:

 Before that, on December 22, 2024:

My theme continues to be: Warren Buffett has set the S&P 500 as the bar against which he is to be "rated / judged." The S&P 500 -- are you kidding me? That's "simply the market."  That's why I keep posting "comparison" charts.

Well, someone -- and that someone is a very, very credible analyst, has just written about the same thing. Link here. 

Fed: Atlanta Fed president interview on CNBC at 10:04 a..m. -- he telegraphed as clearly as he could: "I don't see any rate cuts in 2024." In fact, I think he almost slipped and almost said that: "no rate cuts in 2024." The question is not "when will you start cutting" but will you cut in 2024? 

The "old" word with regard to inflation was "transitory." No more. If inflation is defined a > 2.0%.

The "new" word is "immediately."

As in a direct quote: "I don't see cutting rates immediately." 

The Fed has clearly stated they won't see "2%" this year -- and so "immediately" means one year.

The Atlanta Fed president said we're not cutting rates immediately, which means no rate cuts this year, though publicly he says he expects two rate cuts this year (50 basis points; the Fed dot plot shows three rate cuts, so the Atlanta Fed president sees much less urgency than the Fed in general

He didn't say it, but the real question is why do we need a rate cut at all?

Meanwhile, the stock market doesn't care, link here:

Lilly: some analysts now suggest this weight-loss drug company could join the "mile-high club."

Doofus of the week: Tucker Carlson.

Russia cash, link here: 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Tuesday, February 20, 2024: 50 for the month; 109 for the quarter, 109 for the year
39994, conf, CLR, Ransom 11-30H2,

Monday, February 19, 2024: 49 for the month; 108 for the quarter, 108 for the year
39993, conf, CLR, Ransom 10-30H

Sunday, February 18, 2024: 48 for the month; 107 for the quarter, 107 for the year
39619, conf, Whiting, DE YK Federal 12-33H
39618, conf, Whiting, DE YK Federal  12-33-2TFH,
39069, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7-2H,
39068, conf, Whiting, Safely Federal 32-7H
38303, conf, Whiting, Bigfoot LE 23-11 9H,
37705, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Bighorn 3-6H,

Saturday, February 17, 2024: 42 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 101 for the year
39992, conf, CLR, Omlid 13-19H,

Friday, February 16, 2024: 41 for the month; 100 for the quarter, 100 for the year
39115, conf, Hess, EN-Hegland-LW-155-94-0508H-1, 

RBN Energy: who are the winners and losers with Biden's LNG permitting pause? The short answer? Russia and Iran. Terrorists and murderers keep getting rewarded. At least that's my takeaway.

The Biden administration’s recently announced decision to pause further action on new LNG export permits for at least several months sent shockwaves through the industry and shook up expectations regarding which projects will be hurt by — or benefit from — the pause. As we’ll discuss in today’s RBN blog, the decision is likely to put a number of Gulf Coast LNG export projects (one of them a real giant) in limbo, set back a Mexican project that would depend on Permian and Eagle Ford gas, and boost a couple of projects up in Canada. Oh, and there’s this: The pause also may help two avowed enemies of the U.S.: Russia and Iran.

Russian Foreign Exchange Reserves -- September, 2023

Locator: 45718RUSSIA.

Link here.

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- July 5, 2023

Locator: 45889RUSSIA.

Link here.

The jump from the summer of 2022 to early 2023 was due to "internal" money shifts, not due to "oil money."

This chart is updated for May, 2023, data. I believe the June, 2023, number will be worse.

Saudi Arabia Could Cut Crude Oil Exports To The US -- The News Had Absolutely No Effect On Price Of Oil -- Crying Wolf Too Many Times -- June 27, 2023

Locator: 45080SAUDI.

I saw this headline a few days ago, but never clicked on the link or read the article, thinking it was a joke, but for some reason I was curious who wrote it. 

Written by Charles Kennedy so I have to take the article seriously.

A lot of good data points in this article and some good reasoning.

However, after scrolling through the blog, word search "Saudi," it certainly seems Saudi "cries wolf" a lot, threatening to cut back on oil production.

From May 4, 2019: this was a great graph -- one of the best ever, but I've never seen an update, unfortunately. 

There is now talk among some analysts that Saudi's production is maxing out at 9 million bopd.

Just Released -- Russia's Foreign Exchange Reserves -- May, 2023

Locator: 44886OIL.

Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves.

Link here. 

See this note to explain the jump in late 2022 -- January 18, 2023 --  it was Putin simply moving money from one pocket to another pocket, in this case, converting the country's pension fund (held/paid in rubles) into foreign exchange reserves (generally western currency).

For those still confused: Putin doesn't pay his pensioners their social security in dollars.

The chart was re-set in October 2022 when Putin began having trouble financing his war.

OPEC In A World Of Hurt -- June 6, 2023

Locator: 44849B.

If you have time for only one energy story today, this is is. 

From the link:

Saudi Arabia over the weekend slashed 10% of the kingdom’s oil output to boost prices, and the returns so far suggest it could be a costly bet.

After warning speculators that OPEC+ could cut oil production again, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced Sunday that the world’s biggest crude exporter would reduce 1 million barrels of its own output in July after other cartel members refused to join the effort.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies account for close to half of the world’s oil production.

An output cut was expected to prop up prices amid concerns about a slowing global economy crimping energy demand. On Monday, oil prices opened sharply higher but gave up most of those gains. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 0.8% to settle at $76.71 a barrel.

Oil prices remain about 18% lower than they were when OPEC+ first jolted the market in October with output cuts, which some members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, expanded in April.

Saudi officials familiar with the matter acknowledged that Monday’s increase in oil prices was less than expected by Abdulaziz, who privately defended the move to cut output and push back against short sellers after the contentious meeting, they said.

In other words, Abdulaziz remains an unhappy camper.

The two big stories today:

• OPEC+ is really, really in a world of hurt.
• Apple's headset.

OPEC+:

• Saudi's inability to raise prices. Link here.

• Citi: oil prices unlikely to hit $80 despite Saudi's production cut. Link here.

• Russia: takes huge hit in May, 2023. Link here. So much for all that talk about futility of sanctions. This is from Charles Kennedy so you know it's good and it's important.

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How Bad Is It?

Previously posted:

Locator: 44842SA. 

Link here.

The "y-axis" has been changed from last month's posting making things look better than they really area.

Today's one year view:

The five-year view is better and other time-spans also show how badly Saudi Arabia must be hurting.

Years ago, Saudi's budget was based on $100-oil. From there it went to $80-oil. Currently running about $75 but could be selling oil at greater discounts.

A Trifecta -- Putin's War -- June 2, 2023

Locator: 44833RUSSIA. 

The big story today -- Russia -- of this in the past week:

• Ukraine strikes Moscow
• Russian seaborne diesel plummets in May
• Russian economy implodes

Seaborne diesel plummets, link here:

Economy implodes, link here:

Drones and thrones:

From the linked WSJ article:

The opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural-gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over.

As the war continues into its second year and Western sanctions bite harder, Russia’s government revenue is being squeezed and its economy has shifted to a lower-growth trajectory, likely for the long term.

The country’s biggest exports, gas and oil, have lost major customers. Government finances are strained. The ruble is down over 20% since November against the dollar. The labor force has shrunk as young people are sent to the front or flee the country over fears of being drafted. Uncertainty has curbed business investment.

“Russia’s economy is entering a long-term regression,” predicted Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian Central Bank official who left the country shortly after the invasion.There is no sign the economic difficulties are bad enough to pose a short-term threat to Russia’s ability to wage war. But state revenue shortfalls suggest an intensifying dilemma over how to reconcile ballooning military expenditures with the subsidies and social spending that have helped President Vladimir Putin shield civilians from hardship.

Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska warned this month that Russia is running out of cash. “There will be no money next year, we need foreign investors,” the raw-materials magnate said at an economic conference.

Having largely lost its European market next door, and with other Western investors pulling out, Moscow is becoming ever more reliant on China, threatening to realize long-simmering fears in Moscow of becoming an economic colony of its dominant southern neighbor.

Much more at the link.

Russia is a gas station on an island. And that was before Putin's war. 

From what I can tell, this pretty much summarizes Russia:

• Dr Zhivago
  
• Stalingrad;
• nukes;
• oil; and,
• not much else.

The big question: why has Putin not yet used tactical nukes?

What's Wrong With This Picture? Foreign Exchange Reserves: Russia And Saudi Arabia -- May 21, 2023

Locator: 44711SAUDI.

Link here. 

Link here.

US Oil Is Back -- Stronger Than Ever -- February 26, 2023

Link here.

ESG is dead.

Energy transition is dead.

But US oil sector is not. 

From the linked article:

A year of war in Ukraine has highlighted the return of oil as a source of U.S. financial influence and geopolitical power.

As the West has shunned most Russian energy, unleashing a pressure campaign against the Kremlin’s petroleum revenues, record U.S. crude exports have helped fill the gap in Europe with the oil needed to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

Since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, average monthly seaborne cargoes to the continent jumped 38% compared with the previous 12-month period, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler. A fleet of skyscraper-size tankers carried more crude to Germany, France and Italy—the European Union’s largest economies—as well as Spain, which alone boosted purchases by about 88% over the period.

The pull of oil shipments from the Gulf Coast to Europe, which Kpler pegged at 1.53 million barrels a day in January, has in recent months made the continent a larger destination for U.S. crude than Asia.

By the way, have others noted "Kpler"?

Now, fallout from the war in Ukraine is underlining how the shale boom remade U.S. energy leverage over the past 15 years. Innovations in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling that tapped gushers of fossil fuels are reshaping energy trading and prices in the image of West Texas and other shale regions.

U.S. natural gas shipments to Europe more than doubled last year, according to the White House, cushioning the continent’s households and manufacturers after Russia throttled supplies. Analysts say surging U.S. crude production helped to calm markets as the West restricted most Russian exports with bans and novel price caps in recent months.

“America is back in the most predominant position it has been in world energy since the 1950s,” said Daniel Yergin, an energy historian and vice chairman of S&P Global. “U.S. energy now is becoming one of the foundations of European energy security.”

Much, much more at the link.

Remember: the most recent round of sanctions went into effect earlier this month, February 5, 2023.

And Russia has announced it's cutting production by 500,000 bopd starting in three days -- March, 2023.

Russian Economy -- Update -- February 25, 2023

Link here.

France 24.

Off The Net For Awhile -- Off The Grid, As The Say -- February 20, 2023

Who else missed this? Re-posting. Link here.

Miscellaneous:

Link here.

Link here:

 

Remember: We're In A Recession -- February 15, 2023

JPow or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Embrace Inflation 

"Wednesday's robust retail retail sales figures, along with a strong January job report, suggest that the economy remains durable, perhaps even strengthening, and at little risk of succumbing to a recession anytime soon."

US consumer: checking and savings accounts still hold more cash than they did pre-pandemic. Think about that. -- February 15, 2023.

The area under the curve:

Updates

Later, 11:36 a.m. CT, link here:

Original Post

US consumer: checking and savings accounts still hold more cash than they did pre-pandemic. Think about that. -- February 15, 2023.

Oil: is this a change from last year's forecast? Link here.

Tesla: very, very surprising. Doing very, very well. I'm impressed. 

Remember, we're in a recession:

Biden not getting the credit he deserves:

Can you imagine if the US deployed 97% of its entire army in South Korea?

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Cost Renewables 

Link here and here. 

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Sophia's First Medal