It's Gonna Be A Johnny Rivers Night -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44539MUSIC.

Wow, I'm in a great mood. 

Link here.

From wiki: 

Rivers claimed to have written the guitar intro, although it is clearly heard on Sloan's demo version. Chuck Day, the father of Cass Elliott's daughter, also claims to have written the riff. 

My wife is miffed that President-elect Trump was given "equal time" for his Christmas message despite the fact that Joe Biden didn't have a Christmas message this year. LOL. I think the Dems are about ready to ride Biden out of DC on a rail. Tarring and feathering would probably be a bridge too far, but being that Biden is used to riding the rails -- his entire life, apparently, was spent riding the rails between Delaware and DC.

Link here.

Folsom Prison ... why did that just flash in front of me? LOL.

 Maybe more later, maybe this is all for tonight. We'll see. 

Later: I guess we'll quit with one last story. Hertz is so desperate to get rid of their EVs, they're asking those who rent an EV just to keep them and not bring them back.  Link here.

I can't make this stuff up.

The day the music died.

Apple -- AAPL -- Market Cap Watch -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44538AAPL.

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Walmart vs Amazon

In a sidebar discussion with a reader:

I no longer think of AMZN and WMT as direct competitors.

WMT for me is still RETAIL.

AMZN for me is now AI.

Look at e-commerce below. For me, e-commerce is as much AI as it is retail. Amazon is data mining their e-commerce data as is WMT, but Amazon has so much more. And AMZN can spin on a dime when changes need to be made.

For me, investing well requires one to know:

• what sector to place the ticker in which one is interested;
• know the "average" p/e of the tickers in that sector;
• know the history of the p/e of the ticker in which one is interested;
• know the margins of the ticker in which one is interested and the margins of the other tickers in that category.

Of those four data points, the most important? Knowing what sector place the ticker in which one is interested.

 

That's why AAPL is so difficult. It's in a sector of its own. The closest sector that matches AAPL? Fashion. 

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The Year Of The All-Day Cafe

Link here.

The upcoming year will see out-of-towners moving into Dallas-Fort Worth to open snazzy spots like Delilah, a supper club, and Avra, an upscale Greek restaurant. More importantly, 2025 will bring a delicious roster of food for all of us, with barbecue, burgers and tacos on menus. And, we’re pleased to report that three of our most exciting new restaurants and bars of 2025 boast great eats from sunup past sundown, showing an upswing in all-day cafes.

Let’s pause on that all-day phenomenon for a moment. Restaurants cut back hours during the COVID-19 pandemic. Small-business owners removed entire days of service to keep costs lower. So it’s a big leap that, in 2025, places like the coming-soon East Dallas restaurant Serritella will open just after dawn and close at 2 a.m.

Serritella co-owner Jason Gorsuch is banking on the idea that Lakewood needs its own Italian village — a place for coffee, lunch, dinner and drinks. He thinks the economy can support it.

Start the year at Vaqueros Texas Bar-B-Q, a Grapevine food truck that’s getting its first permanent home in Allen’s Watters Creek Village shopping center. Customers in line for Mexican-inflected barbecue will find a cocktail “kiosk” near the front with the offer of a margarita or a paloma while they wait. (We like it!) Then it’s on to birria tacos, hot links, brisket and more.

The owners of Rye and Apothecary on Dallas’ Lower Greenville are branching out to Plano to open a European bar and bistro named Flamant, the French word for flamingo. This restaurant team already has experience in the ‘burbs, as its first Texas restaurant, Rye, started in McKinney. Co-owners Tanner Agar, Taylor Rause and Nic Cain have a knack for bringing serious food to areas that can support it, but they don’t take themselves too seriously. Menu items at Flamant might include croquettes with dirty martini dipping sauce or octopus to share.

One of their bartenders just won a Michelin award for Exceptional Cocktails — the only one given in the state. Naturally, Flamant will have great drinks.

AI -- Truly Amazing -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44537AI.

This is simply amazing. Broadcom -- AVGO -- up 50% in the past month.

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The Bakken Revolution

We've been talking about this on the blog for years. Link here.

Crude oil production in the U.S. Lower 48 states, which excludes Alaska and offshore production, reached a record 11.3 million barrels per day in November 2024, according to our estimate in the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook published on December 10.

Crude oil production in the L48 states increased 3% year over year despite fewer active rigs in most major producing regions, demonstrating gains in operational efficiency.

Rigs drill oil wells, and an increased number of active drilling rigs indicates that U.S. producers are drilling more wells, which generally results in growing oil production.

Our latest STEO shows the active rig count decreased year over year in 2024 through November in all L48 primary crude oil producing regions except the Bakken. The region with the most activity, the Permian Basin, declined from 310 rigs to 303 rigs between November 2023 and November 2024. The active rig count for these regions, which includes the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken, declined 18% to 389 rigs since the recent January 2023 high.

Data on 34 publicly traded exploration and production companies also suggest increasing well productivity is helping reduce companies’ production cost per barrel.

Oil and natural gas companies are increasingly leveraging technological advances, including artificial intelligence, electronic hydraulic fracturing technologies, and automated drilling processes, to optimize operations while operating fewer rigs, according to trade press. This shift toward digital solutions has improved drilling and completion techniques and reduced rig downtime, and it provides advanced analytics to help target future operations.

These technological solutions have allowed producers to increase production rates for rigs as they drill new wells. Improved performance is particularly evident in the Permian region, where we observed a 9% year-over-year increase in November’s crude oil productivity per active rig.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $69.62.

Active rigs: 33 (a recent record low)

One new permits:

• Operator: Hunt Oil
• Field: Ross (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hunt Oil has a permit for a State A well, SWSW 3-156-90, to be sited 357 FSL and 453 FWL

Four permits renewed:

• Hess (2): RS-State, Parshall, Mountrail County;
• CLR (2): Salem, Dollar Joe, Williams

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  
• Longer version here.  
  

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My First New Car -- A 1973 Chevy Nova SS
Best Christmas Gift Ever! LOL!

WMT Vs AMZN -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44536RETAIL.

Link here. Based on their trajectories, Amazon could displace Walmart as soon as 2027.

But this is the revenue chart that simply blows me away, link here:

Apple comes in at #4 though not by much does it lead #7 - #9, inclusive.

At one time, AAPL represented 40% of Buffett's equity portfolio. 

With regard to investing, I prefer margins:

At "net profit," margins:

• WMT: 3%
• Apple: 16%

But as a cautious investor, one can invest in both. 

Costco, interestingly enough, also has a 3% net profit margin.

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Oracle

As long as we're looking at these, one more, a company that has gotten a bit of "talk" on CNBC recently.

The US Consumer -- Christmas Spending? Across The Board Almost 100 Basis Points Greater Than Last Year? On Line? Almost 700 Basis Points Greater -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44535RETAIL.

Original

Link here. $1200. At $23 / first month plus principal over six months = $200 + $23 = $223 / first month.

Original Post

Reported earlier: December 22, 2024.

So, this was the survey December 12, 2024:

So, how did this  work out?

Mastercard? Actual results blew away the estimates -- CNBC quote today --

According to a Mastercard SpendingPulse report, online spending during the holiday shopping period from November 1 to December 24, 2024, grew by 6.7% over last year, compared to a 2.9% increase for in-store sales.

This contributed to a total spending increase of 3.8% over 2023, surpassing the previously forecast rise of 3.2% and topping the 3.1% increase during the same period last year.

Steve Sadove, senior adviser to Mastercard and former Saks CEO and chairman, told Reuters that spending rose even when higher prices due to inflation were factored in. He noted that the last five days of the holiday season accounted for 10% of all holiday spending, showing "a lot of strength in the end."

Tracking The Apple M5 Here -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44534APPLE.

What is the difference between the Apple M4 and M5 chips?

Apple: link here. The M4 was revolutionary and is only starting to shop up in Apple productions. Now, already, we're talking about the M5. 

The M5 family of chips will be manufactured on TSMC’s N3P node, the next step up from the N3E on the M4. Kuo says the new node “entered the prototype phase a few months ago,” but it’s the first time we’re getting three generations of chips in a row that use the 3nm node.

The M5 Pro, Max, and Ultra, specifically, will use “server-grade” 2.5D packaging, with the explicit purpose of improving production yields and thermal performance. This will allow the CPU and GPU to use separate designs, which is a major change from previous generations that use a conventional system on chip. Kuo also mentions that these high-end M5 chips will be “better suited” for AI inferencing.

More.

Thomas Jefferson And The Louisiana Purchase -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44533MISSISSIPPI.

What did Thomas Jefferson and when did he know it?

Link here. 

At wiki:

Introducing The M5 -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44532B.

Netflix: getting, getting very positive reviews this morning for the two football games yesterday.

• the average 30-second Super Bowl commercial costs $7 million to air
• Netflix paid $150 million for two highly anticipated NFL games on Christmas Day
• the math works out to 10 commercials per game to break even
  
• Netflix treated one of the two games as a Super Bowl game; Beyonce Show at half-time was not to be missed -- I missed it
• waiting to see the new subscriber growth; the analysts' comments
  

Apple: holy mackerel! On a down day at the open -- AAPL up $1.09 at the open, now up 0.5% today, trading at $259.39. $264.63 is the $4 trillion mark. Today on CNBC:

Apple: link here. The M4 was revolutionary and is only starting to shop up in Apple productions. Now, already, we're talking about the M5. 

The M5 family of chips will be manufactured on TSMC’s N3P node, the next step up from the N3E on the M4. Kuo says the new node “entered the prototype phase a few months ago,” but it’s the first time we’re getting three generations of chips in a row that use the 3nm node.

The M5 Pro, Max, and Ultra, specifically, will use “server-grade” 2.5D packaging, with the explicit purpose of improving production yields and thermal performance. This will allow the CPU and GPU to use separate designs, which is a major change from previous generations that use a conventional system on chip. Kuo also mentions that these high-end M5 chips will be “better suited” for AI inferencing.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.68.

Friday, December 27, 2024: 48 for the month; 151 for the quarter, 679 for the year

• None.

Thursday, December 26, 2024: 48 for the month; 151 for the quarter, 679 for the year

• 40354, conf, Koda Resources, Amber 1301-1BH,
• 40002, conf, Hess, GO-Hoyt-LE-157-97-2833H-1
• 33974, conf, Enerplus, Silver 147-93-09D-04H,

Wednesday, December 25, 2024: 45 for the month; 148 for the quarter, 676 for the year

• 40335, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 2H,
• 40334, conf, Grayson Mill, Sponheim 31-34F 1H,
• 40333, conf, Grayson Mill, Hopes 30-27F-3H,
• 40332, conf, Grayson Mill, Hopes 30-27F 2H
• 40331, conf, Grayson Mill, Hopes 30-27F 1H,
• 40198, conf, Grayson Mill, Hopes 30-27F 4H,
• 38491, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 153-95-17B-16-1H,
• 37666, conf, BR, Nordeng 1A MBH,

RBN Energy: how cown manure is helping to fuel heavy-duty fleets across North America. 

A primary objective of the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), when it was expanded back in 2007, was to stimulate by 2022 the production of at least 16 billion gallons/year of gasoline and diesel made from cellulosic biomass in conversion plants resembling small refineries.

After getting lots of headlines in the early days of renewable fuels, that vision faded into the background and attention shifted to the use of ethanol in gasoline and the production of diesel from soybean oil, but cellulosic biofuels — non-food crops and waste biomass like animal manure, corn cobs, corn stalks, straw and wood chips — are back in the spotlight thanks to a regulatory quirk.

In today’s RBN blog, the first in a series, we review the unusual history of the D3 Renewable Identification Number (RIN), the subsidy designed to stimulate cellulosic biofuel production, and the recent impact on heavy-duty trucking.

DFW Expanding, Adding Flights -- DFW Direct To Connecticut Starts At $89 -- December 26, 2024

Locator: 44531DFW.

Tag: DFW airlines Fiji Airway Avelo Airlines