Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Two Wells No Longer Being Followed -- Back On Line And Doing Great --February 4, 2020

These two wells have been removed from the list of wells that need to be followed. They are clearly back on line and are still great wells:
May 19, 2019: on 320-acre spacing; these are the only two wells on this drilling unit; they both went inactive 1/19; remain inactive 3/19:
  • 20307, in the west half, A/1,328, EOG, Clarks Creek 103-17H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t11/11; cum 157K 10/19; only 1,000 bbls/month; off line as of 1/19; still inactive, 7/19; 4 days, 8/19; looks to be back on status as of 9/19;
  • 19693, in the east half, 722, Enerplus, Danks 17-44H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t7/11; cum 263K 10/19;  only 1,000 bbls/month; off line as of 1/19; still inactive, 3/19; active as of 4/19 but only producing one day/month? see this note. And here. Now back up to 4,000 bbls/month with only one day of being on line according to the scout ticket; see this post; strange production profile; again, only one day of production 8/19; only one day of production, 9/19 but produced 3,479 bbls; one day, 10/19, 2,207 bbls;
Recent production for #20307:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A Slawson Wolverine Federal Well Is Back On Line; Soon To Go Over 500K Cumulative -- February 4, 2020

Another well I've been following for quite some time. It looks like this well is finally back on line and doing very, very well:
  • May 17, 2019: this well is back off line again, as of 11/18, and it's a great well; returns to production, 6/19; remains off line 10/19;
    • 23108, 767, Slawson Exploration, Wolverine Federal 5-31-30TFH, Elm Tree, t9/13; cum 479K 12/19; off line as of 7/19 again; remains off line 10/19;
Current production having just come back on line -- 11K in just 19 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

A 5-Well Hess BB-Federal Pad Update; All Five Wells Have Been Fracked -- February 4, 2020

I've been following these wells for quite some time. I can now take them off that list of wells that need to be followed. They have all been fracked and are huge wells.

The original note:
October 23, 2018:  #18250 parallels the wells coming from this 5-well pad; still off line; back on line for a few days in 11/19; one day, 12/10; #33737 is on a 5-well pad; this one was the first to report; the others are SI/NC, but I believe they have all been fracked; will soon report; #18250 was IA; 1/19 -- now back on A status, 10/19; three days of production in 2/19; still off line as of 4/19; back on line 5/19 but no production; no production, 7/19; remains off line 9/19; two days production 10/19 with minimal production; 2,000 bbls over 10 days, 11/19; continue to follow; the five well pad: #33736 - #33739, inclusive, all have been fracked; 
Disclaimer: this well is not representative of all wells in the Bakken. 

Update: #33736 - #33739, inclusive, have now all been fracked. Example, one well:
  • 33739, 2,444, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-7, Blue Buttes, t9/18; cum 324K 12/19, full production to date:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

California In Light Of Iowa -- February 4, 2020

With Joe Biden coming in a distant fourth in Iowa, it is time to look at California. This is not good news for Joe Biden.

These are four different pollsters and they all have their biases, but in light of the Iowa caucuses, these are really concerning numbers for Biden.

Sanders by 14 points over Biden in the most recent poll.

  • Sanders is trending up, from a low of 20% (Survey/USA) in early January, to 30% (KQED/NPR) in late January
  • meanwhile, during that same time period, Biden has imploded; from 30% to 15% -- very, very similar to what we saw in Iowa
  • Pocahontas looks relatively good at 16% but not when one considers what happened in Iowa; her numbers won't improve in California
  • Buttigieg, if he has the money to keep going will take votes from Pocahontas and Biden and could get into the mid-20s, coming in second to Sanders who looks to "bury" the others in California
  • the others remain irrelevant except that they remain spoilers.
  • Californians are not going to warm up to a former NYC mayor (Bloomberg) who currently polls at 4%
  • Steyer: LOL
  • Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind, may not have the money to compete in California; regardless, she will drop out after the California primary if she doesn't drop out before
  • but in light of Iowa, the California polling certainly suggests Sanders will take that state

Iowa Caucus Results; Biden Tanks -- 4:00 P.M. CT -- February 4, 2020

62% of "results" to be released momentarily.

Press conference beginning.

Seems to start with Q&A: Iowa Democrat party chair looks cynical. Leaves the stage abruptly. [Only question: when does he get fired?]

Only 62% will be released now. No word when all results will be released. Press conference seems unsatisfactory. [62% of what? And why only 62%?]

Ten minutes later, still not being reported.

All precincts will be reporting, but only 62% of the results. That's what they said. [Of course that makes no sense; later we are told that 62% of the precincts would be reporting.]  Most interesting: we were told that results would be released at 4:00 p.m. CT. Didn't happen.

Results released at 4:10 p.m. CT.

62% of precincts provided:
  • 26.9: Buttigieg
  • 25.1: Sanders
  • 18.3: Warren
  • 15.6: Biden
  • Klobuchar: 13%
  • Yang: 1%
41 delegates at stake, first pass:
  • Buttigieg: 30% of 41 = 12 delegates (twice the number of popular votes than Biden)
  • Sanders: 30% of 41 = 12 delegates
  • Warren: 21% of 41 = 9 delegates
  • Biden: 19% of 41 = 8 delegates
February 5, 2020, 10:46 a.m. ET, The New York Times, and only 71% of precincts reporting:
  • Buttigieg, 26.8%: 11 delegates
  • Sanders, 35.2%: 11 delegates
  • Pocahontas, 18.4%: 5 delegates
  • Biden,15.4%: 0 delegates
  • Amy, legend in her own mind, punching above her weight, 12.6%: 0 delegates
  • Steyer, the village idiot, 0.3%; 0 delegates

MDU Earnings, 4Q19 -- Huge Fourth Quarter Beat; Ford Tanks

Link here for MDU. Huge report.
  • earnings increased by 23% in 2019
    • earnings: $335.5 million
    • $1.69/share
  • 2018
    • $272.3 million
    • $1.39/share
  • 4Q19 vs 4Q18:
    • $95.1 million vs $78.8 million
    • 47 cents/share vs 40 cents/share
    • forecast: 39 cents/share 
  • guidance
    • initiating per share guidance in range of $1.65 - $1.85
FORD tanks: down 11% after earnings reports came out; operating income falls by two-thirds; auto make cites lower production volumes in North America;

  • adjusted EPS: 12 cents vs 15 - 17 cents
  • revenue: 39.7 billion vs $36.3 - $36.49 billion forecast
  • issues lower 2020 outlook
  • 94 cents to $1.20 vs $1.31 estimate
  • admitted execution issues in the US tied to the new Explorer SUV
  • company's sales fell 5% from the prior year
  • free cash flow decreased to $500 million from $1.5 billion
  • sales dropped in all geographic regions
  • comment: pivot to EVs is going to be problematic
  • comment: the linked article at The WSJ is very, very troublesome; this paragraph stood out: Under the CEO, Mr. Hackett, Ford has pursued futuristic initiatives, such as testing driverless pizza delivery and an all-electric SUV version of the Mustang muscle car. But it has also been consumed by present-day problems that have weighed on earnings. 
  • Ford also invested in a "scooter" company; $100 million for Spin;

Primary Schedule -- Nothing About The Bakken -- February 4, 2020

Primary calendar and "bounce" at this link.

WTI Settles Solidly Below $50; OPEC In A Panic -- February 4, 2020


Ouch: Tesla plunges

Original Post

Acquit: US Senator Susan Collins will vote to acquit Trump. Announced at 3:15 p.m. CT, today. How will Mitt Romney vote? He's already been dis-invited to the CPAC event this year after voting to extend the US Senate impeachment trial.

Boom: NASDAQ up 210 points; hits a brand new all-time intra-day high.
  • AMZN: up $54; up 2.7%; now trading at an all-time high, 2,058
  • TSLA: incredible; hit $960 intra-day; closes at $887
  • MSFT: hit an all-time high today
  • DIS: beats
  • F: tanks
Is 2019-cNoV already plateauing? We're coming up on two weeks when "ground zero" was shut down. Five million folks "escaped" Wuhan before it was shut down, but we're coming up on two weeks, the incubation period, and globally not much unexpected news;

DIS: smashes expectations; EPS, $1.53 vs $1.44 forecast;

Iowa Democrat caucus results: no new information; we were originally told that the "majority" of results would be released at 4:00 p.m. Most recently I've heard that "50%" of the results will be released.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5463584044

Another day with no new permits? Doesn't matter! A gazillion permits were renewed.

Twenty-seven permits renewed:
  • CLR (11): eleven Gordon Federal permits in Dunn County;  
  • EOG (10): four Ross permits and four Liberty LR permits, all in Mountrail County; two Hawkeye permits in McKenzie County;
  • Lime Rock Resources (4): a Schneider permit in Dunn County; a Garfield permit in Mountrail County; a State permit in Mountrail County; and, an Emil Veverka permit in Dunn County
  • Liberty Resources (2): an Orris permit in Burke County; a Thronson permit in Mountrail County

Notes From All Over, Part 4 -- February 4, 2020

This Week In Pictures

And this one won't even need to be "photo-shopped."



Later, 2:21 p.m. CT: note more "inconsistencies" here. 

Later, 11:00 a.m. CT: Iowa Democrat committee says it will release the "majority" of the Iowa results at 4:00 p.m. CT. "Majority" of results? What does "majority" mean, and why not "all" the results?

Original Post
It will be interesting to see the timeline of how things played out in Iowa.

Most concerning: "inconsistencies."

It's bad enough that the results were not provided but what is infinitely worse is that the results were held up because there were "inconsistencies."

Can you imagine this in Chicago, Baltimore, Illinois, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the general election? Results held up because of "inconsistencies"? Immediately the press would pounce and suggest something nefarious was going on. (And, in this case, they would be correct.)

It is interesting that Iowa, so far, is getting a pass. The press is reporting, and apparently, "we" are believing that there was simply a technology error in the software, in the app, and then the telephone system failed. That's what they are telling us. The telephone system failing? Yeah, right.

What if the timeline was a bit different?

Let's say the app worked exactly as advertised (and I'm sure the developers are scrambling now to come out with exactly that story). The app would have been fairly simple, and they had four years to beta test it. Certainly the telephone system was working.

So, let's say the app worked exactly as advertised.

Let's say the initial results from the smaller precincts started coming and because of the small numbers, Sanders was winning, let's say 100% to 0%. He was taking the first 23 votes, perhaps not enough for one delegate, but it wasn't the delegate count that was the problem. The problem was the fact Sanders took all the early votes from the first small precincts. Of if not all, he was trending so far in front that the Iowa Democrat party was stunned. They had to do something.

First thing to do, crisis management. Don't report results. Don't report any results. Certainly something has to be wrong. Sanders can't be winning by this big a margin. How do "we" report this? "We" call it "inconsistencies."

And from there, the work begins to manage the Sanders crisis.

Those photographs of those paper ballots? The photographs can be photo-shopped.

We've gone from hanging shads to photo-shopped photographs.

It will be interesting to watch boxes of "original" paper ballots showing up at Iowa Democrat headquarters.

Conspiracy theorists can take this one step farther. The most influential Iowa pollster failed to release the final poll. In hindsight, their explanation seems more than a bit far-fetched.

Results will be released some time today, perhaps. But that won't end the debacle.

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- February 4, 2020

This is really, really cool.

When I was in the USAF, I had an incredibly well-received presentation regarding the strategic plan for our small clinic over at Rhein-Main Air Base, Germany. The thesis of the presentation: "what business are we in?"

So, I was pleased to see this in a commentary earlier this morning regarding Schwab:
How do these add up to what I call a possible brilliant strategy? Understand that Schwab, the original discount broker, is no longer in the brokerage business.
I've said for several years that Tesla is not in the car business. It's in the battery business, disguised as a car company. And as such, Tesla is going to do very, very well.

Likewise, maybe a decade ago, I noted that Apple was not in the hardware/software business, it was in the mobile entertainment / luxury apparel division. Wow, that was prescient. 

Amazon? I'm trying to figure that one out. It's too easy to say it's in the "logistics" business, rather than "retail" per se. But maybe that's all it is: logistics. Trucking, air cargo, warehousing.

Speaking of Amazon. Years ago, Lego had a complicated map / spreadsheet in their catalogues showing how long and how much it would cost to ship their products. It seemed to take forever to receive a Lego order. Same with Omaha Steaks. It seemed from time or order to actual arrival, two weeks for Omaha Steaks and expensive shipping. Now, both companies are expediting their deliveries: I received a Lego delivery in three days; and, an Omaha Steaks delivery arrived in less than a week. I was amazed. Lego shipping? Free. Omaha Steaks: generally a minimum $20 fee to ship but often they provide a coupon or a special with free shipping. This didn't "just happen." One word: Amazon.

By the way: if Amazon, Lego, and Omaha Steaks are colluding to lower their prices, lower their shipping fees, and shorten their delivery times, I'm all for this kind of collusion. LOL. See early note/comment from a reader who mentions collusion.

Walmart. I don't often shop in brick and mortar stores but when I do, I shop Walmart. About a week ago, I realized I needed more birdseed, but I was not going to go to Walmart until I needed a few more things to make the trip worthwhile. So, yesterday, the Walmart trip:
  • birdseed, and lots of it (incredibly inexpensive)
  • a new housekey
  • a couple of 3-ring binders (tax season, statements, yada, yada, yada)
  • envelopes
  • one Hot Wheels car (a 1965 convertible Ford Mustang, driven by 007); 94 cents; six cents less expensive than elsewhere; Sophia is acquiring quite a collection;
  • dog treats for the neighbor's dog (I always keep a bag in the car for Sophia to give to Huey, the lovable dog next door)
  • a bag of Reese's bite-size chocolate-peanut butter cup treats
Credit card. Last week I received an e-mail note from my bank.
At first I thought it was a scam. The e-mail note said that I had not used my credit card from that bank in almost two years, suggesting I no longer needed it (that sounded a bit snarky). The bank said I needed to use it by the end of March, 2020, to keep it. That was true; I had not used that card in almost two years. But I hate to go through the process of getting a new card if I need it, so I used it to purchase my goodies at Walmart. I was curious if it would still work. It did.
Self-service: self-service scan and pay at Walmart is awesome. I always use it. I always thank the  jilbāb-robed woman who watches over the area. Always very, very pleasant. She has been there for a couple of years, and always seems to be there when I go to that particular Walmart.

Girls and boys are different. Well, duh! But why?
Another example. I picked this up from Sophia. Today while watching a YouTube video with Sophia it dawned on me. The videos she likes all involve other girls in social settings, and they are always talking about their feelings, and their relationship with others, especially their parents. Boys? They're driving Tonka trucks and building things. Sometimes they build together (collaborate); sometimes they compete. But feelings, relationships. LOL. It's all about getting a project. Wow, I'm going to get a lot of hate mail accusing me of sexism. It was just an observation. One can learn a lot from those in kindergarten.
Counting. This is pretty cool. This is what Sophia explained to me when I dropped her off at Tutor Time. This is how the Montessori teacher from India is helping the four- and five-year-olds conceptualize big numbers. And, there's a bit of contest involved. The first photo:

Second photo:

So, this is what is going on.

There are two "pads." On the right, the westernized number system.  On the left, the eastern number system.

The Montessori teacher sits between the two pads. One student is on the left, with the "abacus." Another student is on the right with the Arabic numerals.

The teach calls out a 3-digit number such as 233. The students then "put" the cards or the beads together to represent 233.

On the right, one "200 card"; a "thirty" card; and a "three."

On the left, Sophia will pick up two 10 x 10 bead sets (200); three lengths each with ten beads; and, finally three beads.

I think it's a pretty clever way to help students conceptualize big numbers.

The contest: challenging the students to see who can put the "big number" together first.

My dad would have probably used $100-bills; $10-bills; and, $1-bills. LOL.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- February 4, 2020

One needs to ask: what's driving the market? The Dow is up 450 points in early morning trading.  TSLA is up $126, up 16%, now trading at $906/share. AAPL up $6, at $314. Okay. That's all I'm going to look at for now. [Later: AAPL up $9.76; up 3.15%; trading at $318, but well below it's 52-week high, of 328.]

Positive news re: 2019-nCoV. Most Chinese hospitalized with this virus are going home. Mortality rate of 2% well below SARS and well below mortality rate of 6 - 7% for "seasonal flu" in the US.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All over? This past week I mentioned two things regarding the 2019-nCoV:
  • US corporate world sees this thing ending by March, 2020
  • we will know the pandemic scare has reached its peak when the stock market surges
Today, the Dow is up almost 450 points in early trading.

Could be a "dead cat" bounce. If so, blame it on 2019-nCoV pneumonia.

Iowa Democrat caucus glitch? What better way to slow down Bernie's momentum? This has Hillary's fingerprints all over it. And that's now being reported by others, including The Washington Post, Fox News, and The Washington Examiner.  I knew she would do it, I just did not know how. Wow, wait 'til the Bernie supporters hear this. Others say it was Buttigieg, who has already claimed victory in Iowa and has moved on.


We've spent, what, trillions of dollars on fighting cancer?

In the big scheme of things there have been some real successes.

But in the big scheme of things, it certainly doesn't appear we're getting much in return for how much has been spent. 

Man on the moon and safely back before the end of the decade.

The Manhattan project to end WWII.

Cracking the DNA code by a couple of Cambridge labs in less than a couple of years (one can quibble about the actual amount of time).

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- February 4, 2020

That didn't take long: Iowa Democrat caucus glitch can be traced right back to Hillary. Being reported elsewhere. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

They must be reading the blog: I first mentioned this story several weeks ago, how Schwab is up-ending the investment industry. This is really quite amazing. Long, long article over at financial planing:
Vanguard has been sucking up assets but today, the $6 trillion company has a real threat — Charles Schwab. Schwab is poised to upend the industry with no fees, higher quality service and better products that could make traditional index funds and ETFs obsolete. Schwab has made three big announcements recently. The connection between the three may not be obvious, but together, they indicate what could be a brilliant strategy.
  • it eliminated commissions on stocks and ETF trades
  • it agreed to buy TD Ameritrade in a $26 billion deal
  • it said it would offer fractional shares in stocks 
How do these add up to what I call a possible brilliant strategy? Understand that Schwab, the original discount broker, is no longer in the brokerage business. In fact, it appears the asset management business is merely a side business and a money loser at that: They are charging less than their costs. About 61% of Schwab revenue comes from net interest income with most of the rest coming from asset management fees according to Schwab’s most recent 10-Q.
It's a very, very long article; worth a read. I know I have been incredibly happy with Schwab; I've been with them for decades.

Truly Ridiculous

With all that's going on in the world, the US FTC sues to block Schick from merging with Harry's.

Oh, give me a break.

I was once told that a merger often means that one company is in trouble (or, in some cases, both companies).

Years and years ago the US government also stopped the merger of two VHS video rental companies, national franchises, despite more than adequate competition. Both of those video rental companies are now out of business.

It will be interesting to see if the government lets the Schwab - TD Ameritrade "merger' proceed. I'm thinking this may not be a chip shot, or whatever the idiom is.

Iowa Hiccups; Twelve Wells To Report -- February 4, 2020

Iowa caucups: Bloomberg apparently did the right thing, skipping the caucuses.

BP: boosts dividend (by a relatively small amount, 2.4%); will stop share buyback program (saying they have completed their $1.5 billion share buyback plan). Company reported a 26% drop in 4Q19 profit, but that beat forecasts. Cash flow rose by more than 10 percent in 2019 to $25 billion despite lower commodity prices. But this was due to result of higher production, particularly in US shale following the acquisition of BHP.  Comment: at best, I call that a very, very mixed report.

#1 story over at Rigzone: (previously posted) - that huge gas discovery over in the Mideast.

And, of course:

That cold weather, and snow? It will arrive starting tonight and go on through the weekend.

Back To The Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5463584044

Wells coming off the confidential list --

Tuesday, February 4, 2020: 12 for the month; 119 for the quarter, 119 for the year:
  • 35447, conf, Lime Rock, Nordloef 4-30-19TFH, 160-90L,
  • 35044, conf, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6AXD, 
  • 30188, conf, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 11-31 2B, 
  • 22574, conf, Enerplus, Glacier 148-95-02A-11H TF,
Monday, February 3, 2020: 8 for the month; 115 for the quarter, 115 for the year:
  • 35856, drl, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19A, Heart Butte,
  • 35098, 872, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 12-30 6T, Banks, t9/19; cum 12/19; a 30K month;
  • 35047, drl, XTO, Johnson Trust Federal 21X-6EXH-N, Elidah,
Sunday, February 2, 2020: 5 for the month; 112 for the quarter, 112 for the year:
  • 35885, 817, Liberty Resources, Paige 158-93-19-18-3MBH, East Tioge, t8/19; cum 85K 12/19; a 21K month;
  • 35855, drl, XTO, FBIR Bird 21X-19E, Heart Butte,
  • 35655, 1,015, Lime Rock Resources, Neal 5-33-28H-144-95L, Murphy Creek, t8/19; cum 62K 12/19; 
  • 35116, 574, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 11-30 5T, Banks, t8/19; cum 97K 12/19; a 36K month;
  • 30189, 548, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 11-31 2B, Baker, t8/19; cum 109K 12/19; a 29K month;
Saturday, February 1, 2020: 0 for the month; 107 for the quarter, 107 for the year:
  • None.
RBN Energy: the refineries on the block in the western US, part 2.
Over the weekend, PBF Energy closed on its acquisition of Shell’s Martinez, CA, refinery, marking the first completed U.S. refinery transaction of 2020. The closure of that deal may seem unremarkable, but it’s rare for more than two to three transactions involving individual refineries to take place in the U.S. in a given year, and there are as many as eight other refineries on the market. These include two each in the Philadelphia area, the Midcontinent and the Rockies, and one each in Washington state and Alaska. Why are so many refineries on the block? Today, we continue our series with a look at the facilities said to be on the market in PADDs 4 and 5.