Tuesday, February 4, 2020

California In Light Of Iowa -- February 4, 2020

With Joe Biden coming in a distant fourth in Iowa, it is time to look at California. This is not good news for Joe Biden.

These are four different pollsters and they all have their biases, but in light of the Iowa caucuses, these are really concerning numbers for Biden.

Sanders by 14 points over Biden in the most recent poll.

  • Sanders is trending up, from a low of 20% (Survey/USA) in early January, to 30% (KQED/NPR) in late January
  • meanwhile, during that same time period, Biden has imploded; from 30% to 15% -- very, very similar to what we saw in Iowa
  • Pocahontas looks relatively good at 16% but not when one considers what happened in Iowa; her numbers won't improve in California
  • Buttigieg, if he has the money to keep going will take votes from Pocahontas and Biden and could get into the mid-20s, coming in second to Sanders who looks to "bury" the others in California
  • the others remain irrelevant except that they remain spoilers.
  • Californians are not going to warm up to a former NYC mayor (Bloomberg) who currently polls at 4%
  • Steyer: LOL
  • Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind, may not have the money to compete in California; regardless, she will drop out after the California primary if she doesn't drop out before
  • but in light of Iowa, the California polling certainly suggests Sanders will take that state

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