Saturday, September 7, 2019

Nothing About The Bakken -- September 7, 2019

Updates

September 8, 2019: it appears the Indian lunar probe may have landed on the moon. Engineers have "spotted" it and are now analyzing the data. No link. Story easily found.

Original Post 

How many times did the US put men on the moon and bring them back to earth?

Apparently that's more difficult to do than it seems. India, today, failed to simply land a small probe on the surface of the moon. And this is 50 years after Apollo 11, and one would assume the technology has improved since that time.
Landing on the moon has proven to be tricky, said Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, the head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi think tank.
“Since there was a deviation from the planned trajectory, the central engine could have malfunctioned. The other thing could be that the data transmission link got lost,” she said. “It could just be the communication link getting snapped but things being normal. It’s still difficult to say with certainty what could have gone wrong.”
Landing on the moon is particularly difficult because it has almost no atmosphere. That means parachutes can’t be used, so landers depend on thrusters to set them down at the proper speed and in the right place. Transmissions to and from Earth take more than a second, so the lander cannot be controlled in real time. The Indian lander was programmed to scan for a suitable spot to land and reach it automatically.
A similar Israeli mission failed earlier this year at around the same stage. As it descended to the lunar surface, it lost communications and hit the moon at too high a speed.
“These are challenging matters and it could happen even to more experienced countries,” said Ram S. Jakhu, former director of the Institute of Air and Space Law at McGill University in Montreal. “Knowing something in theory and doing it in practice is different.”
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Alfalfa Removed As Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy

Saudi Arabian energy minister is now a "royal": Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Seems to have a familiar sounding name.

Story here.

Hurricanes And Tropical Storms -- September 7, 2019

Idle chatter.

2019: Hurricane Dorian.

1971: Tropical Storm Doria --
Tropical Storm Doria was the costliest tropical cyclone in the 1971 Atlantic hurricane season. The fifth tropical storm of the season, Doria developed from a tropical wave on August 20 to the east of the Lesser Antilles, and after five days without development it attained tropical storm status to the east of Florida. Doria turned to the north, and reached peak winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) as it was making landfall near Morehead City, North Carolina. It turned to the northeast, and moved through the Mid-Atlantic and New England as a tropical storm before becoming an extratropical storm over Maine on August 29.
The tracks of these storms practically overlap each other perfectly, as best I recall.

Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, full concert, 1994

Random Update Of A Bruin/HRC Fort Berthold Well -- September 7, 2019

The well:
  • 18341, 567, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-1H, t10/11; cum 657K 7/19; off-line, 8/18; back on line, 11/18;
Recent produciton:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201931283326793206342010251364
BAKKEN6-2019151415163223681102537136
BAKKEN5-2019313920404538072334146228
BAKKEN4-20193044154489407427671634269
BAKKEN3-20192633403275339319813421265
BAKKEN2-20192848915171691334651140796
BAKKEN1-2019318111778210931792023093531
BAKKEN12-2018316153591714896460721571624
BAKKEN11-20182236564013796342562672681
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-2018427921420164717140
BAKKEN7-20183143674257184724341405445
BAKKEN6-20183026923048113725621407165
BAKKEN5-201831261121761092394064393
BAKKEN4-201830122613256173057831345
BAKKEN3-20183117371602146024861303168
BAKKEN2-20182821912224177317601165216
BAKKEN1-201831206520726022834160376
BAKKEN12-2017311854175914382163154965
BAKKEN11-20173011711171107419311363358

Hubbert's Theory Revisited, September 7, 2019

This well was the subject of some notoriety when it was first reported back in 2010 or thereabouts. But that's ancient history. Full production profile at this post.

The well:
  • 18040, 993, MRO, Arvid  Bangen USA 31-18H, t8/10; cum 607K 7/19; has always flared;
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20193193089406411263508984745
BAKKEN6-2019301052410493603871097595590
BAKKEN5-201924937692998733630805652
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-2018127441227119554214239
BAKKEN11-20183023042218405170913886
BAKKEN10-2018312212221539416811119258

Newfield's Jorgenson 1-15H Back On Line After Being Off Line For 15 Months -- September 7, 2019

A Newfield Jorgenson well in Lost Bridge has just come back on line:
  • 17086, 560, Newfield, Jorgenson 1-15H, t11/08; cum 334K 3/18; off line as of 3/18; remains off line 5/19; just came back on line 7/19; lots of activity in the area which would explain on-again / off-again / on-again
See link at June 7, 2017; has previously been featured.

Recent production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201921119392214201564678729
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20181000000
BAKKEN3-2018229571422343129301110
BAKKEN2-20182846875082220343291103967
BAKKEN1-201831455642902567411927421098

Two Under-The-Radar Whiting Stenseth Wells Have Been Fracked -- September 7, 2019

This well has recently come off line:
  • 17072, 2,843, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 717K 5/19; off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19; 
It turns out two more wells in the immediate area were also taken off line recently:
  • 21758, 293, Whiting, Oppeboen 21-5TFH, Sanish, t5/12; cum 128K 5/19; off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19;
  • 21759, 368, Whiting, Oppeboen 21-5H, Sanish, t3/12; cum 331K 5/19; off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19;
It turns out there are two wells in the immediate area that are SI/NC:
  • 36392, SI/NC, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5HU, API: 33-061-04478, Sanish, no production data, fracked, 8/19/2019 - 8/25/2019; 3.5 million gallons of water; 88% water; very small frack;
  • 36325, SI/NC, Whiting, Stenseth Trust 11-5-2H, API: 33-061-04455, Sanish, no production data, fracked, 8/19/2019 - 8/25/2019; 5.9 million gallons of water; 89% water; moderate frack;

Random Update Of EOG Van Hook Wells In / Around Section 25-152-91 -- September 7, 2019

This page will not be updated. These wells are tracked elsewhere. 

The well:
  • 24666, 1,913, EOG, Van Hook 126-2523H, 1920 acres; Three Forks, 57 stages; 11.4 million lbs sand; t7/13; cum 748K 7/19;
Let's see what's going on in that area.

The graphic:


The other wells in the graphic:

  • 19518, 861, EOG, Van Hook 17-23H, Van Hook, t7/11; cum 194K 7/19; off line as of 7/19;
  • 18504, 2,195, EOG, Van Hook 7-23H, Van Hook, t5/10; cum 599K 7/19; low production;  off line much of 6/19; back on line 7/19;
  • 24855, 1,981, EOG, Van Hook 130-2526H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 454K 7/19; nice production continues; jump in production, 3/18;
  • 24856, 611, EOG, Van Hook 23-2526H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 340K 7/19; low production now;
  • 24666, 1,913, EOG, Van Hook 126-2523H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 748K 7/19; nice production continues; 
  • 24667, 1,173, EOG, Van Hook 19-2523H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 585K 7/19
  • 17613, 690, EOG, Van Hook 2-24H, Van Hook, t7/09; cum 572K 7/19; low production now;
  • 29056, 754, EOG, Van Hook 25-1319HH, Van Hook, t8/15; cum 285K 7/19; low production 3/19 - 6/19, but seems to be coming back
  • 32227, conf, EOG, Van Hook 51-2523H,
  • 32228, conf, EOG, Van Hook 53-2523H,
  • 32229, conf, EOG, Van Hook 56-2523H, 
Be sure to pay attention to the "chronologic" number of the wells. Also, see this post.

NASCAR Today -- September 7, 2019

96th career Xfinity Series win for Kyle Busch.

I honestly don't understand why a "varsity" driver continues to race with the "junior varsity."

With the number of car insurance ads, it's clear that Americans are overpaying for their car insurance.

Looks like Mars, Incorporated, owns it all: M&Ms, and Combos.

Seriously, Is Anyone Paying Attention? -- September 7, 2019

Seriously, is anyone paying attention?


Three Geoff Simon Stories From This Past Week -- North Dakota Most Dangerous State In Which To Work -- September 7, 2019

Top stories for the past week were posted earlier, but these three stories caught my interest. For additional top ND stories from Geoff Simon go to the linked post.

Bakken oil flows hit 6-month high as rail to East Coast drops, Pipeline & Gas Journal, August 22, 2019
Crude pipeline flows from North Dakota's Bakken shale field have climbed to the highest in six months after the June closure of the largest U.S. East Coast refinery cut crude-by-rail volumes, according to traders and market intelligence firm Genscape.
The diverted barrels and rising production from the third-largest U.S. shale field are helping to offset some of the decline in supplies at the main U.S. storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, and adding to crude flows to the U.S. Gulf Coast, traders said.
Crude inventories at Cushing last week dropped to 42.3 million barrels, from 52.5 million barrels in June, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Two new pipelines transporting crude from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico to the coast have reduced flows from West Texas to Cushing, traders and analysts said.
Before its June closure, Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) refinery had consumed a steady diet of about 40,000 bpd of crude transported by rail from the Bakken. Flows since the fire have stopped entirely, according to Genscape data. Bakken pipeline volumes over the past eight weeks reached as much as 980,000 bpd, utilizing more than 90% of its takeaway capacity for the first time since February. That was up from 874,000 bpd in the three weeks before the PES fire, the data showed.
"Extra flows from the Bakken help replenish Cushing storage and offset some of the impact of Permian barrels redirecting" to the Gulf Coast, one U.S. trader said. Crude production from North Dakota rose to a record 1.42 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, according to state data.
Missouri River Basin runoff second most in history, Minot Daily News, September 5, 2019; 
The second highest runoff ever recorded in the Missouri River Basin was increased again this week as the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers released their latest projections.
Significant rainfall has boosted the September forecast to 54.6 million acre feet of water, an increase of 1.7 maf from a month earlier.The September outlook issued by the Corps for the Missouri River Basin is 215% of average, exceeded only by the record runoff of 61.0 maf in the historic flood year of 2011.
Most of the water entering the system is occurring downstream from North Dakota, limiting the impact on water levels in Lake Sakakawea which has been declining for several weeks. Lake Sakakawea stood at 1,847.7 feet Wednesday following a peak elevation near 1,852 feet earlier this summer. Inflow into the large reservoir Tuesday was recorded at 32,000 cubic feet per second. Outflow through Garrison Dam was 46,100 cfs, an amount considerably higher than average for the season.
The release rate is scheduled to be reduced later this month before reaching an end of month rate of 42,000 cfs.
Most North Dakota worker deaths happen on the road, but the feds typically don't investigate them, Inforum, August 31, 2019. At 68%,
North Dakota had the highest percentage of its workplace deaths classified as transportation-related in the country for 2017, according to a Forum analysis of the latest data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the AFL-CIO.
Of the 38 workplace deaths counted that year in the state, 26 were transportation-related. That was compared to 40% for the U.S. and 45% in Minnesota in 2017, according to the analysis. Comment: I didn't pay a lot of attention to this article, but my first thought was  this -- compared to driving, actual work in the oil patch seems to be relatively safe.
OSHA:

Washington, DC, construction deaths: say what? Five to six times the rate as the rest of the country. Now that seems to be a story waiting to be told.

Oil patch: from 2017 news report, 2015 data -- North Dakota remains most dangerous state to work.
OSHA investigated six work-related deaths in 2016 in North Dakota, according to state director Eric Books. So far they’ve investigated or are investigating four deaths in 2017, one oil and gas-related, a number Brooks described as historically low. OSHA measures years using the October through September fiscal calendar.

Week 36: September 1, 2019 -- September 7, 2019

Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top ND stories (for more on some of these stories, see this post)
  • Dickinson to supply water to Davis Refinery
  • MDU looking to build an 88-megawatt simply cycle natural gas combustion
  • Oasis quietly laid off workers in North Dakota
  • Most worker deaths happen on the road, but feds typically don't investigate
  • St Alexius Health in Williston works to keep up with increasing demands
  • Lake Sakakawea: Missouri River Basin runoff second most in history
  • North Dakota worker shortage persists amid low national unemployment
  • Bakken oil flows hit 6-month high as rail to East Coast drops
Operations:
Bakken 2.5:
Commentary: