Friday, June 30, 2017

The Katie Ledecky Page -- June 30, 2017 -- More Records -- Coming In Threes; Lowers World's Fastest Time In 200 Meter Freestyle

From the Phillips 66 National Championships, June 27 - July 1, 2017, Indianapolis, IN:
Katie Ledecky won her THIRD title of the meet Friday in the women’s 400m freestyle, turning in a time of 3:58.44, a U.S. Open and meet record.
It was the THIRD-fastest performance of all time in this event. The win marks the THIRD event in which she’s qualified for the 2017 FINA World Championships, to be held June 23-30 (sic) in Budapest, Hungary. It will be her THIRD career World Championships.
The dates for the Budapest meet have to be a typographical error; I wonder if the dates aren't July 14 - 30, 2017?

Her earlier titles in the Phillips 66 meet:
  • women's 800m freestyle, 8:11.50 (second place came in at 8:20.46)
  • women's 200m freestyle, 1:54.84 (second place came in at 1:56.68)

19-year-old Katie Ledecky won another national title in the 200 free on Wednesday night at the 2017 Phillips 66 USA Swimming National Championships.
Ledecky already had the number one time in the world after what she did at Santa Clara earlier this month. Ledecky lowered that time with a 1:54.84 to move further ahead of Sweden’s Michelle Coleman (1:55.64).

Twenty-Five Tanker Cars Derail In Plainfield, IL -- Crude Oil Spill -- NOT The Highly Flammable Bakken Oil


July 1, 2017: except for the carrier and the local community, this has quickly morphed into a non-story. Maybe as much as 45,000 gallons leaked from two cars, possibly a third; most of the crude oil ran into trenches being dug for a natural gas pipeline. No oil got into any river and authorities said, again, there was no risk to anyone. The clean-up will take a few days.

Original Post
From CBS Local, so far:
  • no injuries
  • derailed on 143rd Street east of Van Dyke Road just after 6:30 p.m. Friday
  • 40,000 gallons (again, so far)
  • Canadian National Railroad
  • 25 cars derailed
  • oil leaking from three cars
  • oil has not reached the DuPage River
  • strong oil smell; "almost sickening"
  • Plainfield, IL: about 40 miles southwest of downtown Chicago
  • Plainfield, IL: about 50 miles northwest of Kankakee, Illinois
City of New Orleans, Arlo Guthrie

No one says "Kankakee" better than Arlo Guthrie. 

Wow, I love this country.

Week 26: June 25, 2017 -- July 1, 2017

This may be the big story of the week, perhaps even the big story of the month: CBR is back!
 Oil continued to claw its way back to $45 this past week.
 "They" mis-underestimated the frackers. Despite OPEC production cut (wink, wink), US crude oil inventories actually rose slightly.
We might be seeing the first effects of the OPEC (Saudi Arabia) production cuts.

Enerplus with some interesting in-fill plans
Windridge Operating: a new operator in the Bakken?
July, 2017, hearing dockets posted
Huge Newfield Jorgenson Three Forks well shut-in? 
Random update of an old Gadeco well
Rath Federal pad activity?

Oil companies are said to no longer want the Keystone XL
Another pipeline connection to the DAPL; near Watford City

Natural gas
MDU with three natural gas projects
Harold Hamm expands NG deal with South Korea

Seven States Whose Residents Must Just Love Their Representatives -- States Where Gasoline Taxes Jump On July 4th Weekend -- June 30, 2017

The seven states:
  • California: a trivial jump in state income tax, at 1.9 cents/bbl -- rate calculated based on a formula that ties the rate to the price of gas; but get this: on November 1, 2017, the gasoline tax will increase by 12 cents and diesel will increase by 20 cents
  • Montana: jumps 4.5 cents/gallon; rising first time in 23 years
  • Tennessee: jumps 4 cents/gallon; first assessment since 1989
  • West Virginia: 3.5 cents
  • South Carolina: 2 cents; first of six annual hikes of the same size; first increase since 1989
  • Maryland: 0.3 cents/gallon based on an inflation formula
But get this: two states will lower their gasoline taxes --
  • Iowa: the gasoline tax will drop 0.2 cents/gallon (trivial) but the tax on blended ethanol that accounts for most of the market will remain unchanged
  • Nebraska: dropping 0.3 cents/gallon now, but will jump 1.5 cent(s) on January 1, 2018
Hey, what happened to New Jersey? I thought New Jersey raised their state gasoline tax. The state did ... but it was last year, November 1, 2016 -- state gasoline tax jumped 23 cents/gallon in New Jersey --  New Jersey drivers no longer pay the second-lowest state gas taxes in the U.S., a rare exception in an otherwise high-tax state ... corresponding sales, estate and income tax cuts will be phased in over years.

Line Dancing -- Liverpool, 1962

Wow, this is really quite amazing: line dancing in Liverpool during the era of the "British invasion." At the video below skip ahead 25:15 to see some great line-dancing, specifically, the Memphis.

John O'Hara And His Playboys, 1965
Wiki suggests line dancing began in the disco era of the 1970. Clearly, line dancing began long before the '70s.

And this is how they do it in Texas:

Boot Scottin' Boogie, Brooks and Dunn

Latest GDP Forecast - Down To 2.7% -- June 30, 2017

GDP Now link here. Latest forecast: 2.7 percent — June 30, 2017.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 2.7 percent on June 30, down from 2.9 percent on June 26.
The forecast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth fell from –0.34 percentage points to –0.51 percentage points after Wednesday's advance release on inventories and international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Rich States, Poor States

My favorite bedtime reading: rich states, poor states, 10th edition. At the link, click on the "report icon" for a PDF to download. Why would folks be fleeing Illinois? Look at estate taxes: Illinois is ranked dead last, #50, among the US states when it comes to estate taxes. Others tied at #50: New York, Delaware, Connecticut, Oregon. This surprised me: (sort of) no estate taxes in California; ranked #1 (along with others, of course, including North Dakota).


What presidents do best: foreign travel.

President Trump apparently will visit Paris this summer and now it appears he has accepted South Korea's invitation to visit their country.

I love to see President Trump traveling. Gets him out of the swamp.

140 Characters

The other day President Trump tweeted that Amazon did not charge sales tax. Of course, he was wrong, and he was taken to task for that. But he was not entirely wrong: remember, unlike an Obama speech in which there are 25,634 words to explain something, President Trump uses less than 140 characters to make a point. If shipped from Amazon, taxes are due, because Amazon has a footprint in most states. However, if something is sold through a third party (something Target, Wal-Mart, others tend not to do), then taxes may not be due if the third party does not have a physical presence in any particular state. Here is an excellent example:

(You may have to click on the graphic to better see what the "arrow" is pointing at.)

Right, wrong, or indifferent, all things being equal, I would rather read a 140-character tweet from President Trump than listen to a 25,634-word speech by President Obama.

By the way, this product sells for $119 at Lego but is temporarily out of stock. Lego will eventually be selling it again. Meanwhile, if you can't wait that long, you can spend twice that amount ($198 + $20 shipping) to get the item now. 

Great, Great Example Of "Fake News" -- CNBC -- June 30, 2017

This is what happens when one tries to fit a "good news" story that doesn't fit the narrative: a headline and a story completely out of whack with some incredibly bad writing.

This is the banner CNBC headline: consumer sentiment hits 95.1 in June vs 94.5 estimate.

This headline and the story is so out of whack. The story did not say the estimate was 94.5%; the story says that economists expected the measure of consumer attitudes to fall further to 94.5%. Maybe that was just poor writing. Maybe the writer meant to say that economists had expected consumer attitudes to fall to 94.5%.

Regardless, there's little difference between 95.1 and 94.5% in this kind of poll. And in the last couple years of the Obama presidency, Consumer Sentiment Index struggled to stay at 90%.

Having said that, it appears that as soon as Trump became president, the index of consumer sentiment hit a 10-year high. Look how long it took the index to climb out of its hole under the Obama administration.

The implication of the linked CNBC story was that under the Trump administration, consumer confidence is souring.

Proof? Look at the lede:
Consumer attitudes soured in June as U.S. consumer sentiment slid to a seven-month low, a new report showed on Friday, though still rising slightly above economists' expectations.
I thought a consumer sentiment of 95.1% was outstanding. Let's look at the 10-year graph:

But if consumer sentiment is souring, it's due to two words: tax reform. As in "tax reform ain't gonna happen this year."

Blame the GOP.

But 95.1% consumer sentiment seems to be an incredibly good number -- yes -- like a 10-year record. One wonders if previous number, current number, and the forecast are mathematically significantly different or even reproducible.

Enough of this. Fifteen minutes of my life I will never get back.

It's Cold In North Dakota -- The Political Page, T+161, Part II -- June 30, 2017

So hot in Phoenix last week, airplanes were grounded. Reported over and over. And over and over.

Meanwhile, record cold this summer in the northern tier and the northeast US -- and not a peep. But much, much more at the IceAgeNow:
Last week all you heard was it’s so hot the airplanes can’t take off, but now with record cold during summer and 1/4 of the northern and N.E USA below normal … not a peep.

Also, global temperatures aren’t rising as expected this summer, another indication of the intensifying mini ice age. Snows in Russia days earlier, meters of snow in South America and atmospheric compression events at dozens of locations planet wide.

The changes are beginning. We are entering a mini ice age.

Indeed, according to, September-like cool air is about to plunge into the midwestern and northeastern US.
Baby, It's Cold Outside, Neptune's Daughter

Blog Is Guilty Of Fake News -- My Bad! -- June 30, 2017

From Platts questioning where OPEC is headed:
As a result, while OPEC can point to 117% compliance for those members with production caps, it has to temper that achievement with the fact that after promising cuts of 1.2 million b/d, OPEC’s total output in May was just 690,000 b/d below the October benchmark.
Worse still, Iraq is proving — as expected — a reluctant partner to the deal. Arguably the country had just as much justification as either Libya or Nigeria for an exemption.
In the event, Iraqi production has averaged 4.415 million b/d from January through May, against an allocation of 4.351 million b/d. Iraqi output rose in May by 70,000 b/d to 4.43 million b/d.
It is thus very hard to see where OPEC is heading. 
I posted that because I had made a mistake in an earlier post. In an earlier post I said that Iraq was exempt from the OPEC agreement to cut production. I was wrong. At the time of the post, I knew I wasn't quite sure, but didn't take the time to confirm. My bad. Fake news.

Anyway, now I've got it. Iraq is part of the OPEC agreement to cut production (wink, wink).

New Wells Reporting: 3Q17

New data, for a new quarter, began on July 3, 2017.

Data for 4Q16: 4Q16
Data for 3Q16: 3Q16
Data for 2Q16: 2Q16
Data for 1Q16: 1Q16
Data for 4Q15: 4Q15
Data for 3Q15: 3Q15
Data for 2Q15: 2Q15
Data for 1Q15: 1Q15
Data for 4Q14: 4Q14
Data for 3Q14: 3Q14
Data for 2Q14: 2Q14
Data for 1Q14: 1Q14
Data for 4Q13: 4Q13
Data for 3Q13: 3Q13
Data for 2Q13: 2Q13
Data for 1Q13: 1Q13
Data for 4Q12: 4Q12
Data for 3Q12: 3Q12
Data for 2Q12: 2Q12
  Data for 1Q12: 1Q12   
Data for 4Q11: 4Q11 
Data for 3Q11: 3Q11 
Data for 2Q11: 2Q11 
 Data for 1Q11: 1Q11  
 Data for 2H10: 2H10 
Through 1H10: 1H10

Saturday, September 30, 2017: 105 for the month; 177 for the quarter
  • 32246, 1,083, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 8T, Siverston, Three Forks B1, 50 stages, 10.2 million lbs (large only/sand/ceramic), t4/17; cum 277K 3/20;
Friday, September 29, 2017: 104 for the month; 176 for the quarter
  • 32247, 1,270, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 9B, Siverston, 50 stages, 10.1 million lbs, t4/17; cum 408K 3/20;
Thursday, September 28, 2017: 103 for the month; 175 for the quarter
  • 33143, 1,245, BR, Croff 22A MBH, Croff, t10/17; cum 447K 3/20; these could be some big wells;
  • 32255, 1,262, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-35 12B,  Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, small/large/ceramics, t4/17; cum 425K 3/20;
  • 31870, 1,940, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-6H, Pembroke, t7/17; cum 338K 3/20;
Wednesday, September 27, 2017: 100 for the month; 172 for the quarter
  • 33420, 1,876, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-5H, Pembroke, t7/17; cum 369K 3/20;
  • 33144, 318, BR, Mathistad 22A MBH, Croff, t10/17; cum 532K 3/20;
  • 31869, 2,250, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-7HLW,  Pembroke, 62 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t7/17; cum 348K 3/20;
  • 30724, 634, NP Resources, Beaver Creek State 41-36-2PH, Roosevelt, Three Forks, 35 stages; 5.3 million lbs; some ceramic; t4/17; cum 182K 3/20;

Tuesday, September 26, 2017: 96 for the month; 168 for the quarter
  • 33145, 585, BR, Croff 22B UTFH, Croff, t10/17; cum 430K 3/20; 
  • 32244, 781, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 6T, Siverston, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t3/17; cum 270K 3/20;
  • 31871, 2,898, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-4H, Pembroke, t 7/17 ; cum 351K 3/20; exposure to target -- 58.1% in 15' target zone; 5.3% in middle Bakken D facies; 36.5% in middle Bakken B facies;
Monday, September 25, 2017: 93 for the month; 165 for the quarter
  • 33146, 273, BR, Mathistad 22B UTHF, Cross, t10/17; cum 532K 3/20;
  • 32254, 1,320, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-33 11T, Siverston, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4 million lbs; large/small/ceramic, t4/17; cum 310K 3/20;
  • 32243, 852, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 5B, Siverston, 50 stages; 4 million lbs, large/small/ceramic; t3/17; cum 249K 3/20;
Sunday, September 24, 2017: 90 for the month; 162 for the quarter
  • 33326, 1,814, MRO, Spring 21-15TFH, Bailey, t11/17; cum 118K 3/20;
  • 33147, 379, BR, Croff 22C MBH, Croff, t10/17; cum 395K 3/20;
Saturday, September 23, 2017: 88 for the month; 160 for the quarter
Friday, September 22, 2017: 87 for the month; 159 for the quarter
33324, 2,282, MRO, French 31-15TFH, Bailey, t10/17; cum 267K 3/20;
31942, 748, WPX, Rachel Wolf 27-34HS, Squaw Creek, Three Forks, 51 stages; 6.1 million lbs, t8/17; cum 2K 7/1;

Thursday, September 21, 2017: 85 for the month; 157 for the quarter
31941, 1,891, WPX, Rachel Wolf 27-34HC, Squaw Creek, Three Forks, 51 stages; 6.5 million lbs, t8/17; cum --;

Wednesday, September 20, 2017: 84 for the month; 156 for the quarter
31940, 1,285, WPX, Rachel Wolf 27-34HY, Squaw Creek, Three Forks, 49 stages, 5.9 million lbs, t8/17; cum --

Tuesday, September 19, 2017: 83 for the month; 155 for the quarter
33349, SI/NC, MRO, Homme 11-18TFH, Big Bend, no production data, 
32957, 560, Enerplus, Potato 148-92-19B-20H-TF, Heart Butte, 40 stages, 9.7 million lbs, small sand, t6/17; cum 44K 7/17;
31939, 2,106, WPX, Rachel Wolf 27-34HG, Squaw Creek, 51 stages, 6.5 million lbs, t8/17; cum -- 

Monday, September 18, 2017: 80 for the month; 152 for the quarter
33348, SI/NC, MRO, Shrader 41-13H, Big Bend, no production data,
32956, 696, Enerplus, Wheat 148-92-19B-20H, Heart Butte, t6/17; cum 54K 7/17;
32776, 1,682, Whiting, State 34-36-2H, Tyrone, 45 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t3/17; cum 90K 7/17;
31938, SI/NC, WPX, Rachel Wolf 22HC, Squaw Creek; producing, 244 bbls reported;

Sunday, September 17, 2017: 76 for the month; 148 for the quarter
32165, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-4H, Charlson, no production data,

Saturday, September 16, 2017: 75 for the month; 147 for the quarter
32775, 958, Whiting, State 34-36-2TFH, Three Forks, Tyrone, 45 stages, 7 million lbs, t3/17; cum 54K 7/17;
28101, 1,554, WPX, Lucy Evans 29-32HW, Antelope, Sanish pool, Three Fork, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t7/17; cum 46K 7/17;

Friday, September 15, 2017; 73 for the month; 145 for the quarter

Thursday, September 14, 2017: 73 for the month; 145 for the quarter
32238, SI/NC, Statoil, Mark 4-9F XE 1H,  Williston, no production data,
31783, 1,154, WPX, Lucy Evans 29-32HF, Antelope; t6/17; cum 14K 7/17;

Wednesday, September 13, 2017: 71 for the month; 143 for the quarter
32774, 2,329, Whiting, State 34-36-1H, Tyrone, 50 stages; 8 million lbs, t3/17; cum 95K 7/17; spud date, October 3, 2016; cease drilling, October 10, 2016; TD = 10,170 feet; low background gas pressure;
31871, conf, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-4H, Pembroke, produced 21,000 bbls first month;
31784, 2,155, WPX, Lucy Evans 29-32HUL, Antelope, Three Forks First Bench, 40 stages; 6 million lbs, t6/17; cum 50K 7/17; 

Tuesday, September 12, 2017: 68 for the month; 140 for the quarter
31474, 111, Crescent Point Energy, CPEC Elgaard 5 30-29-164N-100W, Three Forks, 35 stages, 2.8 million lbs, TD = 7,944 feet; 14 drilling days; Colgan, t4/17; cum 14K 7/17;

Saturday - Monday, September 9 - 11, 2017: 67 for the month; 139 for the quarter
32374, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 145-97-34D-27-3H, Little Knife, no production data,
32773, 1,998, Whiting, State 34-36-1TFH, Tyrone, Three Forks, 46 stages; 7.1 million lbs, t3/17; cum 88K 7/17; 

Friday, September 8, 2017

Thursday, September 7, 2017
: 65 for the month; 137 for the quarter
32248, 684, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 10T, Siverston, 10 stages, 1.7 million lbs, large sand/ceramic, t4/17; cum 55K 7/17; taken off-line at end of 6/17, see this post;

Wednesday, September 6, 2017
: 64 for the month; 136 for the quarter
24550, conf, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 144-97-6A-7-1H, Little Knife, no production data,  

Tuesday, September 5, 2017: 63 for the month; 135 for the quarter

Monday, September 4, 2017: 63 for the month; 135 for the quarter

Sunday, September 3, 2017: 63 for the month; 135 for the quarter

Saturday, September 2, 2017: 63 for the month; 135 for the quarter
26920, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-3, Elm Tree, no production data,
33281, 3,026, MRO, Iron Woman USA 14-9H,  Antelope, 30 stages, 15.3 million lbs, t7/17; cum 28K in 13 days; (#20602; #19790)

Friday, September 1, 2017: 61 for the month; 133 for the quarter
26921, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-4, Elm Tree, no production data, (#19538)
31400, SI/NC, MRO, Stark 44-35TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
Thursday, August 31, 2017: 59 for the month; 131 for the quarter

Wednesday, August 30, 2017: 59 for the month; 131 for the quarter

Tuesday, August 29, 2017: 59 for the month; 131 for the quarter

Monday, August 28, 2017: 59 for the month; 131 for the quarter

Sunday, August 27, 2017: 59 for the month; 131 for the quarter
26922, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-5, Elm Tree, no production data, (#19538)
33345, SI/NC, MRO, Lund 44-35H, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Saturday, August 26, 2017: 57 for the month; 129 for the quarter
26923, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-6, Elm Tree, no production data, (#19538)
33346, SI/NC, MRO, Harley 14-36TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Friday, August 25, 2017: 55 for the month; 127 for the quarter
26924, SI/NC, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-7, Elm Tree, no production data,
32241, 1,825, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 3B, Siverston, 50 stages; 4 million lbs; small and large sand; ceramics33, t2/17; cum 156K 6/17; (21657)
33212, SI/NC, XTO, Lundin 11X-4AXD, North Fork, no production data,
33347, SI/NC, MRO, Houser 14-36H, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Thursday, August 24, 2017: 51 for the month; 123 for the quarter
32242, 1,598, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 4T, Siverston, Three Forks 1st bench, 50 stages; 3.9 million lbs, small, medium, ceramics, API: 33-053-03816; no frack data at FracFocus, t3/17; cum 137K 6/17; (21657)

Wednesday, August 23, 2017: 50 for the month; 122 for the quarter
33211, SI/NC, XTO, Lundin 11X-4E, North Fork, t4/17; cum --
Tuesday, August 22, 2017: 49 for the month; 121 for the quarter
30482, 870, Oasis, Cook 5300 12-13 6B, Willow Creek, 50 stages; 6 million lbs, t2/17; cum 20K 6/17; (27353 - TA)
32952, 2,071, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-2932H-2, Blue Buttes, Three Forks, 50 stages, 7 million lbs, t7/17; cum --
33210, SI/NC, XTO, Lundin Federal 11X-4B, North Fork, no production data,

Monday, August 21, 2017: 46 for the month; 118 for the quarter
30072, SI/NC, BR, Elizabeth Stroh 24-7MBH, Cabernet, no production data,
32953, 2,219, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-2932H-3, Blue Buttes, 50 stages, 7 million lbs, small/large, t7/17; cum --
33209, SI/NC, XTO, Lundin Federal 11X-4F, North Fork, no production data,
33243, SI/NC, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 2H, Oliver, no production data,

Sunday, August 20, 2017: 42 for the month; 114 for the quarter
30071, SI/NC, BR, Cecilia Stroh 24-7MBH, Cabernet, no production data,

Saturday, August 19, 2017: 41 for the month; 113 for the quarter
32954, 2,042, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-151-95-2932H-4, Blue Buttes, Three Forks, 50 stages, 7 million lbs, small/large, t7/17; cum --
33244, SI/NC, Kraken Operating Fairbanks 20-17 3H, Oliver, no production data,

Friday, August 18, 2017: 39 for the month; 111 for the quarter
19780, 2,252, Whiting, Skunk Creek 4-10-11-8H3, South Fork, Three Forks first bench, spud Feb 18, 2017; TVD, February 27, 2017; 100% in zone, 9 days from spud, t7/17; cum 5K over six days;
24113, 695, Enerplus, Zion 148-95-02B-11H, Eagle Nest, t11/17; cum 151K 2/19;
32955, 1,304, Hess, BB-Lars Rothie-LE-151-95-2932H-4, Blue Buttes, 4 sections, 53 stages, 7.4 million lbs, t7/17; cum -- 

Thursday, August 17, 2017: 36 for the month; 108 for the quarter
26969, 714, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 145-97-34D-27-2H, Little Knife, t12/17; cum 82K 2/19;
31096, 360, Crescent Point Energy, CPEC Elgaard 3 31-32-164N-100W, Colgan, t4/17; cum 19K 6/17;
33245, 1,196, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 3H, Oliver, t8/17; cum 167K 2/19;

Wednesday, August 16, 2017: 33 for the month; 105 for the quarter
30549, 1,686, MRO, Torrison 24-8TFH, Bailey, t10/17; cum 225K 2/19;
33344, 1,700, WPX, Etstatis 32-29HXR, Eagle Nest, Three Forks, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t6/17; cum 36K 6/17; 

Tuesday, August 15, 2017: 31 for the month; 103 for the quarter
24111, 604, Enerplus, Beaver Creek 149-94-31D-30H TF, Eagle Nest, t11/17; cum 259K 2/19;
30550, 4,516, MRO, Brush 24-8H, Bailey, t9/17; cum 250K 2/19;
32498, 866, Hess, EN-Rehak-LE-155-93-0718H-1, Alger, t12/17; cum 55K 2/19;
33246, 1,182, Kraken Operating, Fairbanks 20-17 5H, Oliver, t8/17; cum 146K 2/19;

Monday, August 14, 2017: 27 for the month; 99 for the quarter
31526, 1,751, Hess, EN-Skabo Trust-155-93-0631H-4, Alger, t12/17; cum 117K 2/19;
32240, 238, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 2TX, Siverston, 50 stages, 3.8 million lbs, t2/17; cum 96K 6/17;

Sunday, August 13, 2017 (the QEP Foreman wells are tracked here): 25 for the month; 97 for the quarter
31527, 1,468, Hess, EN-Skabo Trust-155-93-0631H-5, Alger, t11/17; cum 167K 2/19;
31530, 1,822 QEP, Foreman 12-11-1-2T2H, Blue Buttes, 17 stages, 3.1 million lbs, t2/17; cum 71K 6/17;
31532, 1,962, QEP, Foreman 5-2-1BH, Spotted Horn, 49 stages, 9.6 million lbs, t2/17; cum 87K 6/17;
31533, 992, QEP, Foreman 1-2-1T3H, Spotted Horn, 49 stages, 3 million lbs, t2/17; cum 42K 6/17;
31534, 1,757, QEP, Foreman 4-2-1BHR, Spotted Horn, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, t3/17; cum 85K 6/17;
31535, 2,238, QEP, Foreman 2-2-1THR, Sptted Horn, 49 stages, 10 million lbs, t3/17; cum 104K 6/17;
31689, 2,003, QEP, Foreman 12-11-1-2BH, Blue Buttes, 49 stages, 9.4 million lbs, t2/17; cum 82K 6/17;
31690, 2,177, QEP, Foreman 6-2-1BH, Spotted Horn, 49 stages, 9.3 million lbs, t2/17; cum 110K 6/17;
32239, 1,640, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 41-33 14BX, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t2/17; cum 141K 6/17;

Saturday, August 12, 2017:16 for the month; 88 for the quarter
31528, 1,767, Hess, EN-Skabo Trust-155-93-0631H-6, Alger, t11/17; cum 220K 2/19;

Friday, August 11, 2017: 15 for the month; 87 for the quarter
31475, conf, MRO, Lacey USA 11-5H, Van Hook, no production data,
31531, see below, QEP, Foreman 3-2-1TH, Spotted Horn, producing,
31536, see below, QEP, Foreman 3-2-1BHR, Spotted Horn, producing,

Thursday, August 10, 2017: 12 for the month; 84 for the quarter
31476, 2,613, MRO, Moline 14-32H, Big Bend, t8/17; cum 271K 2/19;
31529, IA/1,099, Hess, EN-Skabo Trust-155-93-0631H-7, Alger, t11/17; cum 73K 2/19;

Wednesday, August 9, 2017: 10 for the month; 82 for the quarter

Tuesday, August 8, 2017: 10 for the month; 82 for the quarter
26835, 1,993, WPX, Wolf Chief 27-34HW, Mandaree, Three Forks, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t5/17; cum 81K 7/17;

Monday, August 7, 2017: 9 for the month; 81 for the quarter
26839, 2,253, WPX, Wolf Chief 27-34HD, Mandaree, 41 stages, 6.1 million lbs, t4/17; cum 97K 6/17;
33290, 4,204, MRO, Lena USA 14-22H, Antelope, t12/17; cum 298K 2/19;

Sunday, August 6, 2017: 7 for the month; 79 for the quarter

Saturday, August 5, 2017: 7 for the month; 79 for the quarter

Friday, August 4, 2017: 7 for the month; 79 for the quarter
29631, 3,070, MRO, Delia USA 14-9TFH, Bailey, t8/17; cum 324K 2/19;
32543, 310, BR, Lassen 1-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 313K 2/19;

Thursday, August 3, 2017: 5 for the month; 77 for the quarter
32445, 224, BR, Lassen 2-1-26MBH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 336K 2/19;

Wednesday, August 2, 2017: 4 for the month; 76 for the quarter
25885, 332, Slawson, Pike Federal 7-3-2TFH, Big Bend, t12/17; cum 196K 2/19;
29630, 5,644, MRO, Clarice USA 14-9H, Bailey, t9/17; cum 358K 2/19;
31437, 357, Slawson, Pike Federal 6-3-2TFH, Big Bend, t12/17; cum 164K 2/19;

Tuesday, August 1, 2017: 1 for the month; 73 for the quarter
32544, 284, BR, Lassen 3-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 269K 2/19;

Monday, July 31, 2017: 72 for the month; 72 for the quarter

33043, 290, BR, Veeder 4B TFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 451K 2/19;
33247, 2,774, MRO, Mittelstadt 34-12H, Chimney Butte, t6/17; cum 361K 2/19;

Sunday, July 30, 2017: 70 for the month; 70 for the quarter

33044, 340, BR, Veeder 4C MBH, Bailey, t8/17; cum 459K 2/19;
33248, 3,382, MRO, Hondo 34-12TFH, Chimney Butte, t6/17; cum 232K 2/19;

Saturday, July 29, 2017
: 68 for the month; 68 for the quarter

33045, 149, BR, Veeder 4D MTFH, Blue Buttes, 30 stages; 14.3 million lbs (small, large), t8/17; cum 45K 9/17;

Friday, July 28, 2017: 67 for the month; 67 for the quarter

33046, 433, BR, Veeder 4E MBH-ULW, Blue Buttes, t7/17; cum 32K 9/17;

Thursday, July 27, 2017: 66 for the month; 66 for the quarter

Wednesday, July 26, 2017
: 66 for the month; 66 for the quarter

Tuesday, July 25, 2017: 66 for the month; 66 for the quarter
27391, 998, EOG, Parshall 68-1820H, Parshall, 52 stages; 14.6 million lbs; all 100 mesh; t1/17; cum 73K 5/17;
28402, 428, EOG, Parshall 30-1820H, Parshall, 40 stages; 10.4 million lbs; all 100 mesh; t1/17; cum 86K 5/17;
28404, 1,399, EOG, Parshall 31-1820H, Parshall, 39 stages; 10.3 million lbs; all 100 mesh; t1/17; cum 74K 5/17;

Monday, July 24, 2017: 63 for the month; 63 for the quarter
31438, 747, Slawson, Pike Federal 3-3-2H, Big Bend, t10/17; cum 198K 2/19;

Sunday, July 23, 2017: 62 for the month; 62 for the quarter
28306, 603, EOG, Parshall 70-19H, Parshall, one section, 24 stages, 6.7 million lbs, all 100 mesh, t1/17; cum 47K 5/17;

Saturday, July 22, 2017: 61 for the month; 61 for the quarter
24549, 731, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 144-97-34D-27-1H, Little Knife, t12/17; cum 88K 2/19;
32741, 397, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-7, Hawkeye, t7/17; cum 50K 9/17;

Friday, July 21, 2017: 59 for the month; 59 for the quarter
32742, 1,996, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-8, Hawkeye, Three Forks, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs, large (40/70); small (30/50); t5/17; cum 50K 9/17;

Thursday, July 20, 2017: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter

Wednesday, July 19, 2017: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter
27390, 918, EOG, Parshall 69-1820H, Parshall, 56 stages; 20.46 million lbs; 100 mesh, t1/17; cum 81K 5/17;
28401, 1,611, EOG, Parshall 153-1820H, Parshall, 49 stages; 14.5 million lbs; 100 mesh, t1/17; cum 57K 5/17;
29899, 1,045, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-16-9-5MBH, McGregor, 27 stages, 6.5 million lbs; large (40/70); t1/17; cum 66K 5/17;
29900, 1,070, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-16-9-5TFH, McGregor, frack data not available, t1/17; cum 63K 5/17;
29901, 1,257, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-16-9-6MBH, McGregor, 27 stages, 6.5 million lbs; large (40/70), t1/17; cum 86K 5/17;
29910, 1,038, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-21-28-6TFH, McGregor, frack data not available, t1/17; cum 86K 5/17;
32743, 1,723, Hess, HA-Grimestad-152-95-3031H-9, Hawkeye, 60 stages; 4.2 million lbs; large (40/70); small (30/50); t5/17; cum 11K after 8 days;
32912, 413,  BR, Lillibridge-Veeder 3E MBH-ULW, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 159K 3/19; (#16571)

Tuesday, July 18, 2017: 50 for the month; 50 for the quarter
30086, 636, Liberty Resources, ND State 158-95-21-28-5TFH, McGregor, Three Forks, 27 stages, 6.5 million lbs, 40/70 (large-size proppant), t1/17; cum 45K 5/17;
32744, 1,947, Hess, HQ-Grimestad-LE-152-95-3031H-1, Hawkeye, 60 stages, 8.4 million lbs, 40/70 & 30/50 (combo large-size, small-size proppant), t5/17; cum 19K 5/17 (12 days);
33274, 180, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 5A-26-25-164N-100W,  West Ambrose, t4/17; cum 7K 5/17;
32746, 160, BR, Lassen 4-1-26MBH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 27K 9/17;
32911, 524, BR, Lillibridge 3D UTFH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 149K 3/18;
33148, 142, Petro Harvester, STR1 22-15 163-90 B, Stony Run, Madison, t9/17; cum 35K 3/18; TD = 15,968 feet; 20 stages; 1.8 million lbs; lots of water; a long lateral;

Monday, July 17, 2017: 44 for the month; 44 for the quarter
32910, 555, BR, Lillibridge 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 196K 3/18;

Sunday, July 16, 2017: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter
32747, 547, BR, Lassen 5-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum 130K 3/18;

Saturday, July 15, 2017: 42 for the month; 42 for the quarter
28739, 564, EOG, Parshall 86-29H, Parshall, 23 stages, 5.6 million lbs, t1/17; cum 39K 5/17;
32909, 441, BR, Lillibridge 3B UTFH, Blue Buttes, t9/17; cum 148K 3/18;

Friday, July 14, 2017: 40 for the month; 40 for the quarter
32018, 817, Oasis, Rolfson S 5198 14-29 13T, Siverston, Three Forks 1st bench, 50 stages, 4.1 million lbs, t1/17; cum 99K 5/17; proppant: mix of 100 mesh; 40/70 white; 30/50 white; 30/50 CRC
32908, dry, BR, Lillibridge 3A MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Thursday, July 13, 2017: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter

Wednesday, July 12, 2017
: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter

Tuesday, July 11, 2017: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter

Monday, July 10, 2017: 38 for the month; 38 for the quarter
2302, 81, original IP back in 1959; Enduro, Newburg-Spearfish-Charles Unit J-714, originally drilled in 1959, produced through 2003; cum 466K 3/89; sundry form received January 7, 2015, reported that the company plugged the well in 2010; scheduled it for re-entry and converstion to injection in early 2015;
2359, 7, original IP back in 1959; Enduro, Newburg-Spearfish-Charles Unit E-717, originally drilled in 1959, produced small amount of oil through 1975; cum 48K 10/75
2657, 15, original IP back in 1960; Enduro Newburg-Spearfish-Charles Unit J-712, originally drilled in 1960, produced small amount of oil through 1989; cum 115K 3/89;

Sunday, July 9, 2017: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter

Saturday, July 8, 2017: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter
28740, 697, EOG Parshall 161-2928H, Parshall, 26 stages, 6.3 million lbs, t1/17; cum 85K 3/18;
Friday, July 7, 2017: 34 for the month; 34 for the quarter
30786, 40, Crescent Point energy, CPEUSC Fairholm 5-27-28-164N-100W, West Ambrose, 4 sections; target: Three Forks Unit 5 / Three Forks Unit 6; TVD, 7,862 feet; TD, 18,280 feet; t4/17; cum 54K 3/18;

Thursday, July 6, 2017: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter
27445, 766, EOG, Parshall 158-20H, Parshall, one section, 22 stages, 7.6 million lbs, t1/17; cum 54K 5/17;
32887, 1,531, Enerplus Wasp 150-94-11C-12H, Spotted Horn, t7/17; cum 157K 3/18;
33164, 1,718, Statoil, Russell 10-3F XW 1H, Painted Woods, t11/17; cum 59K 3/18;

Wednesday, July 5, 2017: 30 for the month; 30 for the quarter
27444, 335, EOG, Parshall 78-20H, Parshall, one section, 24 stages, 8.6 million lbs, pt1/17; cum 22K 5/17;

Tuesday, July 4, 2017: 29 for the month; 29 for the quarter
32516, 1,892, XTO, Lundin 11X-15F, Siverston, t11/17; cum 53K 3/18;
33165, 1,720, Statoil, Russell 10-3 2H, Painted Woods, t11/17; cum 57K 3/18;

Monday, July 3, 2017: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter
32515, 1,997, XTO, Lundin 11X-15AXB, Siverston, t11/17; cum 90K 3/18;
32886, 1,194, Enerplus, Ladybug 150-94-11C-12H-TF, Spotted Horn, t8/17; cum 186K 3/18;

Sunday, July 2, 2017: 25 for the month; 25 for the quarter
31324, dry, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 5-26-25-164N-100W, West Ambrose, no production data,
31638, 2,978, XTO, Lundin 11X-15EXH, Siverston, t11/17; cum 123K 3/18;
33166, 2,024, Statoil, Russell 10-3 3H, Painted Woods, t11/17; cum 44K 3/18;

Saturday, July 1, 2017: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter
31136, 1,391, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-11H, Lost Bridge, t6/17; cum 114K 3/18;

31637, 1,804, XTO, Lundin 11X-15A, Siverston, 11/17; cum 123K 3/18;
32441, 1,073, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 23H, Williston, 31 stages, 4 million lbs, t1/17; cum 186K 3/18;
32885, 946, Enerplus, Beetle 150-94-11C-12H, Spotted Horn, t7/17; cum 199K 3/18;
33167, 1,827, Statoil, Russell 10-3 4H, Painted Woods, t11/17; cum 27K 3/18;

Friday, July 7, 2017: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter
30786, 40, Crescent Point energy, CPEUSC Fairholm 5-27-28-164N-100W, West Ambrose, t4/17; cum 54K 3/18;

Thursday, July 6, 2017: 16 for the month; 16 for the quarter
27445, 766, EOG, Parshall 158-20H, Parshall, t1/17; cum 92K 3/18;
32887, 1,531, Enerplus Wasp 150-94-11C-12H, Spotted Horn, t7/17; cum 157K 3/18;
33164, 1,718, Statoil, Russell 10-3F XW 1H, Painted Woods, t11/17; cum 59K 3/18;

Wednesday, July 5, 2017: 13 for the month; 13 for the quarter
27444, 335, EOG, Parshall 78-20H, Parshall, t1/17; cum 43K 3/18;

Tuesday, July 4, 2017: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter
32516, 1,892, XTO, Lundin 11X-15F, Siverston, t11/17; cum 113K 2/19; see #23041, #23042;
33165, 1,720, Statoil, Russell 10-3 2H, Painted Woods, t11/17; cum 57K 3/18;

Monday, July 3, 2017: 10 for the month; 10 for the quarter
32515, 1,997, XTO, Lundin 11X-15AXB, Siverston, t11/17; cum 90K 3/18;
32886, 1,194, Enerplus, Ladybug 150-94-11C-12H-TF, Spotted Horn, t8/17; cum 186K 3/18;

Sunday, July 2, 2017: 8 for the month; 8 for the quarter
31324, dry, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Aldag 5-26-25-164N-100W, West Ambrose, no production data,
31638, 2,978, XTO, Lundin 11X-15EXH, Siverston, t11/17; cum 123K 3/18; see #23041, #23042;
33166, 2,024, Statoil, Russell 10-3 3H, Painted Woods, t11/17; cum 44K 3/18;

Saturday, July 1, 2017: 5 for the month; 5 for the quarter
31136, 1,391, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-11H, Lost Bridge, t6/17; cum 114K 3/18;
31637, 1,804, XTO, Lundin 11X-15A, Siverston, t11/17; cum 123K 3/18;
32441, 1,073, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 23H, Williston, t1/17; cum 186K 3/18;
32885, 946, Enerplus, Beetle 150-94-11C-12H, Spotted Horn, t7/17; cum 199K 3/18;
33167, 1,827, Statoil, Russell 10-3 4H, Painted Woods, t11/17; cum 27K 3/18;

Great Way To End The 2Q17 -- Murder Jared -- Chris Matthews -- June 30, 2017

Why notFrom If anyone has, had, or has had questions about Chris Matthews' political leanings, this pretty much clinches it.

You're fired: I posted a note about ObamaCare the other day suggesting that --
  • in the "financial" arena,  senators might be able to find a way to come together on ObamaCare, but it's all about Medicaid now
  • in the political arena, senators will not be able to come together on ObamaCare
Solution: repeal it as the first step. Come back later and "replace" it. That's the current talk in Washington. It is interesting to note that a Trump tweet earlier this week (last week?) suggested he wasn't all that excited about health care reform any more. Tea leaves are starting to swirl. [Update: about 30 minutes after posting this, I was scrolling through Twitter and found this Donald J Trump tweet:
If Republican Senators are unable to pass what they are working on now, they should immediately REPEAL, and then REPLACE at a later date!]
Well, that ends that.

He better hope there are no e-mails: From Burlington Free Press --
Facing more questions about Burlington College, Sen. Bernie Sanders is denying that his office exerted any pressure to help secure a loan for the small liberal-arts school once led by his wife.

Junk? We should know by next week whether Illinois is junk. But will that really change anything? I mean, really change anything. Probably not.

Oil Continues To Claw Its Way Back -- June 30, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs593076191189

RBN Energy: understanding Waha -- Part 3.

Misreading important of rig counts: John Kemp is misreading the importance of rig counts, apparently not understanding US shale; fracking; re-fracks; DUCs; wells on inactive status; the incredible efficiency and effectiveness of the new rigs being used in the US; and, the improved completion technology. All things being equal, completion strategies matter a whole lot more than number of rigs. John Kemp's three tweets on the subject today:
U.S. shale firms (and OPEC) really need the U.S. oil rig count to stabilise to avert a further decline in oil prices ... dangerous to read too much into one-week change in the rig count given the volatility in the series .... but it is the first sign the rig count might, just might, stabilise or even fall in the weeks ahead, which would help put a floor under oil.
Really? It's still about rig count? North Dakota Bakken is producing more oil today than it did in 2014, and as one can see from the chart above, 191 rigs back in 2014 vs a paltry 59 rigs today.

-1: Yes, that's the number that has John Kemp so excited; from his tweet:
  • Baker Hughes U.S. rig count fell -1 to 940 this week (oil rigs -2 to 756, gas rigs +1 to 184) (first decline in oil rigs since early January, 2017)
News. Tesla to make announcement Sunday, in the middle of the "July 4 weekend." Should be lots of fireworks. See poll at sidebar at the right. 

The Market And Energy Page, T+161 -- June 30, 2017

Staggering: the Dow 30 and the S&P 500 is on track for the best first half since 2013. Wow. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. 

US oil companies don't want Keystone XL. The Wall Street Journal.

Oil set to soar. Citi at

Regrets. Poorly timed $20 billion in shale -- BHP Billiton's outgoing chairman.
BHP Billiton Ltd. Chairman Jacques Nasser said the timing of its $20 billion spree into U.S. shale in 2011 was a misstep and that if the miner could turn the clock back it wouldn’t have invested in the assets.
The world’s largest mining company has been been peppered with criticism since April, when restive investor Elliott Management Corp. went public with demands for a independent review of its oil division and castigated management decisions the fund claims have destroyed about $40 billion in value. BHP is considering further sales of its U.S. shale gas assets amid heightened scrutiny of the unit from shareholders.
Most admired: ENI. Wood Mackenzie:
Eni has secured the title of most admired oil and gas explorer in a new report released by Wood Mackenzie. The Italian energy company placed above Anadarko, Kosmos Energy, ExxonMobil, Lundin Petroleum, Tullow Oil, Shell, Statoil, Cairn and BP.

The Enerplus Cases In The July, 2017, NDIC Hearing Dockets -- June 30, 2017

From the July, 2017, NDIC hearing dockets, the following three cases:
  • 26007, Enerplus, Spotted Horn-Bakken; 9 wells on each of two existing 640-acre units; 5 wells on an existing 640-acre unit; 11 wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units; and, 11 wells on an existing 1920-acre unit; 56 wells total; McKenzie, Mountrail County
  • 26008, Enerplus, Antelope-Sanish, 7 wells on each of two existing 640-acre units; 13 wells on each of three existing 1280-acre unit; 53 wells total; McKenzie County
  • 26009, Enerplus, Heart Butte-Bakken; 5 wells each of two existing 320-acre units; 11 wells on each of eight existing 1280-acre units; 98 wells total; Dunn County
Case 26007:
  • 640-acre unit: 5-150-94, 9 wells
  • 640-acre unit: 36-150-94, 9 wells
  • 640-acre unit: W/2-28/33-150-94; 5 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 4/9-150-94, 11 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 11/12-150-94, 11 wells
  • 1920-acre unit: 6/7/18-150-94, 11 wells 
Case 26008:
  • 640-acre unit: E2-29/32-152-94, 7 wells
  • 640-acre unit: E/2-17/20-151-94, 7 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 16/21-152-94, 13 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 18/19-152-94, 13 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 28/33-152-94, 13 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 16/21-151-94, 13 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 28/33-151-94, 13 wells
Case 26009:
  • 320-acre unit: W/2-5-148-92, 5 wells
  • 320-acre unit: E/2-6-148-92, 5 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 17/20-149-92, 11 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 18/19-149-92, 11 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 29/32-149-92, 11 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 30/31-149-92, 11 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 35-149-92 and W/2-4-148-92 and E/2-5-148-92, 11 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 19/20-148-92, 11 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 21/22-148-92, 11 wells
  • 1280-acre unit: 23/24-148-92, 11 wells
Let's look at a couple of those drilling units.

First, the two 320-acre units in sections 5 and 6, 148-92:

The wells in those two 320-acre units:
  • 17634, 465, Enerplus, Fredericks 6-31H, Heart Butte, t3/09; cum 112K 4/17;
  • 17299, 829, Enerplus, Fredericks 5-11H, Heart Butte, t9/08; cum 153K 4/17;
Now, one of the 1280-acre units with request for 13 wells -- 28/33-152-94:

The existing wells in the 1280-acre unit above:

New Operator In The Bakken? -- June 30, 2017

In the July, 2017, NDIC hearing dockets:
  • Case 25982, Windridge Operating, Portal-Madison; i) create an 800-acre unit; ii) create a 1280-acre unit; or alternatively, i) create a 400-are unit; ii) create a 640-acre unit; two wells on each of the drilling units, Burke County
This is all I could find on Windridge Operating LLC:
  • the website;
  • a brand new company; 
  • Windridge Operating LLC: filed as a Domestic Limited Liability Company in the State of Texas on Friday, May 5, 2017, and is approximately one month old, according to public records filed with Texas Secretary of State;
  • LinkedIn;
  • connected with Windridge Oil & Gas (Lee T Billingsley, Matthew M. Billingsley, and David M Home); Windridge Oil & Gas, San Antonio, founded July, 2016; and,
  • not yet found at "well search" at the NDIC website

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Trump Looks To Be Favoring Mexico, Despite The Rhetoric More Pipelines Approved -- June 29, 2017

Trump loves Mexico. The US says it has issued permits for three more US-Mexico pipelines -- but no (?) movement on the Keystone XL. From Reuters, data points:
  • NuStar Logistics hit the trifecta
  • three NuStar pipelines given permits to cross the US-Mexico border
  • New Burgos Pipeline: 180,000 bbsl/day of "refined petroleum products"; will cross near Penitas, TX
  • two other pipelines, also; one also near Penitas, TX; the other near Laredo, TX -- will authorize a broader range of petroleum products
Mexican natural gas pipeline expansion -- EIA:

FERC: do we have a quorum? President Trump will apparently nominate a third member to the FERC. Google "turmoil FERC" at the blog for more; if the link does not break, this would be one place to start

Keystone XL dead: Canadian suppliers no longer have any interest in Keystone XL. Will be posted / linked later -- a Wall Street Journal article.
The Devil Sent You To Laredo

The Devil Sent You To Laredo, Baccara

They Mis-Underestimated The Frackers -- June 29, 2017

I remember when the analysts said US shale operators could not act quickly in bringing new supply of crude oil to the market. A sentence in this Bloomberg article jumped out at me. From the article:
The chorus in the oil market calling for deeper production cuts gets louder almost every day. By resisting the clamor, OPEC is breaking with its own history.

As crude sank below $50 a barrel -- less than half the price of two years ago -- market-watchers from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to former OPEC officials said supply curbs imposed this year need to be intensified. That would be consistent with past behavior, when production cuts or increases often arrived in stages a few months apart.

This time is different. The emergence of U.S. shale oil producers -- who can adjust supply more rapidly than OPEC’s previous rivals -- means the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cannot act with the same freedom it once did. As economic pressure mounts for exporting countries, using the old playbook runs the risk that new American supplies would fill in any extra cutbacks.

“When OPEC was in control, it would often act in stages,” said Chakib Khelil, a former Algerian energy minister who was OPEC president in 2008. “The market is different than in 2008. Today, non-OPEC plays a larger role in supply. And the major issue is how long can they sustain this supply.”

Oil has given up almost all its gains since OPEC and Russia launched their initiative to clear a three-year surplus. Their supply cuts have failed to deplete the world’s bloated fuel stockpiles quickly enough and West Texas Intermediate futures have declined about 16 percent this year, trading at $45.06 a barrel at 10:04 a.m. in New York on Thursday. Previously, that would probably have prompted OPEC to revise its plans and agree on additional reductions.
In bold again for those missed it the first time around: the emergence of U.S. shale oil producers -- who can adjust supply more rapidly than OPEC’s previous rivals ...

Bloomberg reports this like it's a fact, and a fact that everyone has known from "day one." But I remember analysts only two years ago suggesting US shale operators would be unable to quickly add output, that it would take six months to a year to ramp up production.

I guess they underestimated the "frackers" -- Aubrey McLendon, Harold Hamm, George Mitchell, Tom Ward, Charif Souki, and Mark Papa, to name a few.

Wow, I love this stuff.

Notes to the Granddaughters

This past year, Olivia, the middle granddaughter and fifth grader, took it upon herself to re-establish her school's garden. I do not know if she was influenced by Michelle Obama but I know she really, really like Ms Obama. Be that as it may, Olivia's garden was a huge success. There were three plots, mostly tomatoes, gourds, cabbage, herbs, and marigolds.

We stopped by the yesterday to see how the garden looked. It was quite amazing, to say the least:

The Daily Note

The Trump Presidency
The Third 100 Days
The Third 30 Days + 10 (261 - 300)
The Second 30 Days (Days 231 - 260)
The First 30 Days (Days 201 - 230)

The Trump Presidency
The Second 100 Days
 The Third 30 Days + 10 (161 - 200)
The Second 30 Days (Days 131 - 160)
 The First 30 Days (Days 101 - 130)

The Trump Presidency
The First 100 Days
The Third 30 days + 10
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration
The Third 10 Days
The First 30 Days

August 8, 2017, T+200: Making America great again: GALLUP: U.S. Small-Business Owners' Optimism Highest in 10 Years ---

August 7, 2017, T+199: Trump gets a B+ based on economy performance. Considering this comes from the anti-Trump, liberal press, this is quite remarkable -- obviously an A+ from a fair and balanced analyst. Another record-setting day on the Dow and S&P 500.

August 6, 2017, T+198: Trump on vacation. In New Jersey. And New England is jealous. LOL.

August 5, 2017, T+197: UN votes $1 billion sanctions on North Korea; largest in history by UN on North Korea. I do not recall ever seeing BOTH Russia and China supporting the US on anything of this nature. And it was initiated by the Trump administration.

August 4, 2017, T+196: GOP is Trump's worse enemy. Writes bill to keep Senate in session during August recess (on a technicality) to keep Trump from making recess appointments.

August 3, 2017, T+195: GOP smells blood -- Trump's approval ratings at 38% -- all-time low; lower than lowest Obama approval rating while in office.

August 2, 2017, T+194: with Gen (ret) Kelly moved to WH Chief of Staff, there is a vacancy at Homeland Security. Reports: Rick Perry being considered. Good move. Perry is in over his head at Energy; he had no clue (nor did most Americans) that DOE was a nuclear energy department, not an "energy" department. I'm not even sure Perry knows how to spell "nuclear" but he would know something about the illegal border crossings along the Texas international border.

August 1, 2017, T+193: first day under new WH Chief of Staff -- no presidential tweets as of 6:36 a.m.

July 31, 2017, T+192: Trump works 24/7. One wonders what Trump will do now that Congress begins their August recess? Later: did I read that Mitch McConnell delayed the Senate recess for two weeks?

July 30, 2017, T+191: Russia kicks out 755 American "diplomats" working in Moscow. That leaves about 455 in place. Why in the world do we need 1,200 "diplomats" working in Moscow. [Update: FBN  noticed this also, and asked the question. It turns out that only a quarter of those 1,200 "diplomats" are actually American. The vast majority of folks working in the US Embassy in Moscow are Russians providing admin support for the most part. Thus, most of the 755 "diplomats" being expelled from the US Embassy are not American, but rather poor Russian workers just trying to earn a living.

July 29, 2017, T+190: South Korea's very dovish president has finally seen the light after North Korea launches two more ICBMs; Korean Peninsula arms race begins. Trump tweets that Obamacare reform might not be off the table; threatens unilateral action.

July 28, 2017, T+189: ObamaCare is pretty much off the table for the 2018 elections. Priebus fired. 

July 27, 2017, T+188: new White House communications director has, apparently, released new directives for the White House communications agency through The New Yorker.

July 26, 2017, T+187:  S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs today; Dow 30 at record highs today. The Trump rally continues. Foxconn selects Wisconsin; 13,000 jobs initially.

July 25, 2017, T+186: Dow 30 looks like it will have a huge day on Caterpillar's earnings; CAT up 5% in pre-market trading. Jared Kushner testified yesterday, yawn; Dems (Schumer, Pelosi) look to re-brand: new emphasis -- $15/hour minimum wage; more regulation; slam US corporations. Re-branding? New ideas? LOL.

July 24, 2017, T+185: 185 days of "Hillary lost because of the Russians" preceded by 100 days of Jill Stein.

July 23, 2017, T+184: US gasoline prices at a 12-year low.

July 22, 2017, T+183: the US is hitting on all cylinders; and, the press is talking about the sitting president of the US pardoning Donald Trump. 

July 21, 2017, T+182: Sean Spicer resigns.

July 20, 2017, T+181: this will be the talk of the town this weekend. US Senate: 52-46-2 just went to 51-46-2 with Senator McCain out of action. This pretty much puts everything on hold. McCain won't quickly give up his seat; if/when he does, Arizona governor still needs to appoint a replacement. Two words: Kelli Ward. Please, oh, please, oh, please, Maxine Waters for president, 2020! ROFL.

July 19, 2017, T+180: President Trump hits his 6-month anniversary. Time to rally. Unto Ohio. With regard to ObamaCare: the most disillusioned are probably the Democrats: they know ObamaCare will implode; they wanted Trump to own ObamaCare Lite when it, too, imploded. Schumer said the patient (ObamaCare) was dying and that Trump/GOP failed to save the patient. I think Schumer forgets: true Republicans/Libertarians don't want the patient (ObamaCare) to survive. The big losers if ObamaCare not repaired: all the blue states that expanded Medicaid. Sure, Medicaid is costing the federal government a lot of money, but it can always print more money. The states cannot print money to cover the increasing costs of Medicaid. President Trump unhappy having been misled by Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Stock market: all three major indices hit all-time record highs on President Trump's 6-month anniversary.

July 18, 2017, T+179: stock market opened lower mostly due to Goldman Sachs earnings but then plunged when VP Mike Pence started talking about ObamaCare repair again -- repeating a litany of "facts" -- with no announcement of any success --

July 17, 2017, T+178: lots of TV time given to President -- executive order -- "Made In USA Day/Week." Steve Forbes has it right: GOP better press ahead with huge tax cut (tax reform); forget about CBO deficit projections; forget about ObamaCare repair. Americans like ObamaCare ("no pre-existing conditions"); they don't care about the deficit; they like tax cuts. Paul Rand could be held singly responsible for loss of US House if he doesn't get on board. ObamaCare Repeal is dead. The Dems will make a big deal out of this but at the end of the day, good, bad, or indifferent, ObamaCare is owned by the Dems. It will die on the vine; a lot of states will drown in their Medicaid debt.

July 16, 2017, T+177: quiet.

July 15, 2017, T+176: Senator McCain has surgery to remove small clot above right eye. He's 80 years old. Will convalesce in Arizona for another full week. Delays vote on healthcare bill. Then Senate goes on vacation. Bottom line: GOP healthcare plan dead for this year. The "bad news": so is any chance of tax reform.

July 14, 2017, T+175: Melania more popular than Hillary when the latter was First Lady. Color me surprised. LOL.

July 13, 2017, T+174: we are being told Don Trump, Jr, met with someone out to destroy our country, and yet, who let that cockroach into our country in the first place? Well, no other than President Obama, and it took "special" permission. LOL. Speaks volumes about our previous president. And John McCain? Well, there's always John McCain...

July 12, 2017, T+173: this morning I heard the new "Russian stuff" reported by the anti-Trump talking head on CNBC. It was such a convoluted story, it will have no impact on American public unless press is able to condense it into 30-second sound bite. Robert Mueller will run with this however. Will go nowhere. Market agrees. Futures up significantly after Trump son goes on Hannity to answer questions. Most noteworthy: CNBC does not mention the "Hannity" name. LOL. Curiouser and curiouser:

July 11, 2017, T+172: more Russian stuff.

July 10, 2017, T+171: more Russian stuff.

July 9, 2017, T+170: James Comey, fired FBI director, as bad as Hillary when it came to classified material. What a dingbat.

July 8, 2017, T+169: by every objective measure the US is in better shape today than it ever was under the Obama administration. One can start with the jobs data or unemployment data. Records of improvement being reported every week.

July 7, 2017, T+168: G20. Attendees all wear the "G20 Disney pin." Except President Trump. Hoo-wah! Link here. Sort of reminds me of what Groucho Marx was said to have said about clubs. 

July 6, 2017, T+167: G20.

July 5, 2017, T+166: G20.

July 4, 2017, T+165: the price of gasoline is at its lowest in 12 years.

July 3, 2017, T+164: tea leaves suggest CNN could have its credentials pulled from the White House briefing room: Trump probably doesn't like heckling in his own house.

July 2, 2017, T+163: the former president is again showing his true colors, worried about Americans showing too much patriotism. Indonesian or Kenyan, but not American.

July 1, 2017,  T+162: I'm sure BLM is percolating somewhere in the background, but it's interesting that we've heard so little from BLM now that President Obama is out of office.

June 30, 2017, T+161: consumer sentiment index hits 10-year record after Trump elected president; consumer sentiment index hit relative lows during Obama's presidency. Trump rally: the market has its best first half since 2013.

Declining Saudi Crude Oil Imports Into The US Now Affecting Regional Spreads -- June 29, 2017

This is my simplistic view of the subject; I could be wrong; it wouldn't be the first time. 

US refineries along the Texas-Louisiana gulf coast are optimized for heavy oil.

Without heavy oil, US refineries are not going to need as much Bakken oil.

That's why the Keystone XL was so important for the Bakken -- not because it would have carried Bakken oil (although that was possible) but because US refineries needed a stable source of heavy oil. US refineries blend light oil (US glut) and foreign heavy oil (cartel) to make things work.

This was a difficult concept for President Barack Obama to understand.

So, there is a relative glut of light, sweet oil (Bakken oil, WTI) and a relative decline in heavy oil (Canadian oil sands -- operators fleeing; Venezuela -- imploding; and, Saudi Arabia -- in deep doo doo). One should be able to predict the way prices will move based on that data.

So, let's see.

From Platts, today:
Declining Saudi crude imports to USGC strengthen regional differentials.A drop in the volume of Saudi Arabian sour crude imports to the US Gulf Coast has served to boost medium and heavy sour crude differentials.
Amid an increasingly tight global sour crude market driven by OPEC cuts, Saudi Arabian crude imports to the Gulf Coast in June decreased month on month by 9.975 million barrels to a level of only 11.519 million barrels, according to US customs data.
In May, Saudi crude imports totaled 21.494 million barrels and in April these imports reached 19.801 million barrels.
As imports from Saudi Arabia have tightened, the differential for domestic medium sour grade Mars has increased 85 cents/b since reaching a three-month low of WTI cash minus $1.80/b on June 20. Mars was assessed at minus 95 cents/b on Thursday after five trades were heard during the day at that level. (Mars off-shore platform.)
And this one-off:
The tightened supply in the Gulf Coast proved the perfect market for five cargoes of Mexican heavy sour Maya crude, diverted to the region from the US West Coast. Mexican state oil company Pemex diverted the cargoes to the USGC due to pipeline damage following both a regional flood and later a fire at the Salina Cruz refinery, according to market sources.
By the way, speaking of the Keystone XL killed by President Barack Obama, note this CBR story posted earlier today. Apparently, some folks in Washington thought CBR was better for the environment than pipelines. LOL.