Thursday, December 3, 2020

Update On BR's Cherry Wells -- December 3, 2020

This page will not be updated.

The BR Cherry wells are tracked here.  

Rig on site; all wells on confidential status.



Update On Two Wells Of Immense Interest -- December 3, 2020

The wells:

  • #36887 (33-061-04580; Amber Renee 25-36H-R; Sanish)
  • #36888 (33-061-04581; Sophia Drake 25-36H-R; Sanish)

File report, #36888, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R; Sanish; drl/NC; FracFocus does not yet have frack data:

  • 10/23/20: sundry form; verbal approval to purchase and transport oil:
  • 3/05/20: sundry form received; frack: 48 stages; total water, 250,306 bbls; total proppant, 10.045 million lbs;
  • 12/30/19: request for the well to be placed on confidential status; has not yet produced yet; off confidential list, 6/30/20;

File report, #36887, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish; drl/NC; FracFocus does not yet have frack data:

  • 12/7/19, work completed; sundry form: frack: 47 stages; total water pumped, 243,375 bbls = 10.222 million gallons of water; total proppant, 10.248 million lbs;
  • 12/30/19, sundry form: company requests that well be put on confidential list; comes off confidential list 6/30/20;

For newbies: these are two wells that are of immense interest

See a post on the "original" Amber Renee here. #18408, Amber Renee is carried as TA.
3/6/19: Murex requested that TA status for this well be extended one more year; this request had been made every year until 2020 when I do not see a request; nor do I see a letter from NDIC alerting the operator that the well's status has "expired."

An Old WPX Well Off Line For A Year Is Now Producing Once Again -- December 3, 2020

After one year of being off line, a WPX Bearstail well is back on line with nice production.  Hubbert's theory of peak oil: this is not supposed to happen.

The well:

  • 18419, 510, WPX, Bearstail 32-29H, Eagle Nest, t2/12; cum 334K 10/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-202024465345231679711423824106
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-2019248291189410196717140
BAKKEN8-2019311567150445329872523126
BAKKEN7-2019311591162846030342550143
BAKKEN6-2019301557144547629692471166

Hess With Six New Permits; Enerplus Reports Four Big DUCs; Kraken Reports Three DUCs; Newfield Reports One DUC -- December 3, 2020

Active rigs:

$45.64
12/3/202012/03/201912/03/201812/03/201712/03/2016
Active Rigs1355655339

Six new permits, #38002 - #38007, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Capa (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for a 6-well CA-E Burdick pad in SESE section 20-155-95; Capa oil field;
    • the wells will be sited 318' FSL and between 811' and 976' FEL;
    • the Hess E Burdick wells are tracked here;

Ten permits renewed:

  • Hess (6): six BW-Rolfson permits in McKenzie County
  • Lime Rock: a Schneider permit in Dunn County
  • EOG: a Burke permit in Divide County
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: a Bervik permit in Divide County

Note: the Enerplus "Cloudy" wells are tracked here. See DUCs below. 

Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: note -- the ERF "Cloudy" wells are tracked here:

  • 35595, SI/A, Enerplus, Lenticular 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 208K 10/20;
  • 35598, SI/A, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 170K 10/20;
  • 35599, SI/A, Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 212K 10/20;
  • 35600, SI/A, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 178K 10/20;
  • 35857, drl/A, Newfield, Kummer 149-98-3-10-2HLW, Pembroke, t--; cum 7K in six days;
  • 36905, drl/A, Kraken, Kokomo 13-24 3H, Sanish, t--; cum 7K over 16 days;
  • 36906, drl/A, Kraken, Kokomo 13-24 2H, Sanish, t--; cum 7K over 15 days;
  • 36907, drl/A, Kraken, Kokomo 13-24 1H, Sanish, t--; cum 13K over 16 days;

ONEOK Seeks To Expand Pipeline Capacity Near Halliday, Dunn County -- December 3, 2020

It's possible this has been posted earlier but do not remember. Regardless, I would rather report a second time than miss something.

From a reader, who alerted me to this story: ONEOK seeks to expand a NGL pipeline that connects to its Bear Creek gas processing plant near Halliday in Dunn County.

Data points:

  • wants to add two pump stations
  • currently carries up to 15, 000 bpd
  • expansion would permit up to 80,000 bpd
  • one pump: on a 5-acre parcel of land eight miles southeast of Watford City
  • second pump: on a 7-acre parcel of land 18 miles northwest of Killdeer
  • pipeline: 38 miles long; built in 2016;
  • no change in maximum operating pressure;
  • NGLs ultimately be shipped via ONEOK's Bakken and Elk Creek pipelines, from eastern MT to Kansas
  • this expansion is separate from a planned expansion of the Bear Creek processing plant

Natural gas processing plants in North Dakota are tracked here.

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Elf On A Shelf

With Sophia's favorite salty snack. 

Disneyland -- Oh, Oh -- December 3, 2020

End of football games; end of all sports.

End of Disneyland and all other theme parks. 

All schools, all universities abruptly closed.  

Hollywood filming needs to be shut down immediately.

Port of Los Angeles / Port of Long Beach shut down?

LAX shut down?

It will be interesting to see how long this lasts.


If they don't close all the airports, this "order" is completely bogus. I'm sure the state can't close international airports, but certainly, the state police can stop every car, every bus, every taxi leaving the airport and ask for papers, and perhaps even tattoo identifying numbers on every person entering the state.

Panama Canal -- Update -- December 3, 2020

Back on June 24, 2016, the NY Times dissed the Panamanians over their widening of the canal. Link here.

Update here

This is one of the reasons I find SRE so exciting. They saw this coming and made the decision to build a huge LNG export terminal on the west coast of California. Baja California, that is. Previously posted.

Notes From All Over -- The Mid-Day Market Edition -- December 3, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

NASDAQ: hits another record.

Dow: back over 30,000 as Boeing surges with news on the 737 Max. Some suggest Boeing needs to refer to this "new" aircraft as the "737." It will be interesting whether the public (mainstream media) keeps the "Max" moniker.

Of the Dow components, along with Boeing, Walgreens is up almost 8%. I assume this is based on foot-traffic generated by folks streaming in to get their (in many cases) free Covid-19 vaccination. And not just once in most cases, but twice. And then a third and fourth time to buy Tylenol (JNJ) to treat the side effects of the vaccination. For many, this has been the easiest stock-picking environment we have had in years:

  • end of Chinese flu;
  • new administration advocating for multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure bill;
  • Boeing gets great news;
  • pharmaceutical companies and "vaccine-delivery" locations (see below);
  • Jim Cramer's "pent-up demand bull market" + the annual Santa Claus rally

The biggest unknown: energy. But one good omen: CVX price action today.

From Motley Fool today:

Under the plan, people will be able to get inoculated against the coronavirus at pharmacies such as CVS, Walgreens, Rite Aid, as well as other retailers with pharmacy operations such as Costco, Kroger, and Walmart.

Will some of these "vaccine-delivery" locations set up kiosks outside, especially high-volume big box stores like Costco and Walmart? Might we see those "containerized housing units"? This could be the largest mass immunization in the history of mankind? I can't imagine these stores with long lines of people snaking among their aisles while trying to maintain normal operations.

Perhaps this would be a good time to study how China executed their mass immunization policy -- not how they prioritized who got the vaccine, but "in the trenches," how did they manage large groups of people descending on vaccination centers. 

Obviously immunizing residents in nursing homes and prisons will not be an issue in the same sense. Or even immunizing nurses and other first responders. But once released to the general public this could be quite a spectacle. 

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Whoo-Hoo!

Sophia has jumped to Level 4 -- Spanish -- Duolingo. This is the fastest she has jumped from one level to the next level!

Homeschooling In Texas -- December 3, 2020

This is why home schooling in Texas is taking off. It is being reported that home schooling in Texas has jumped 228% in the state over 20 years. Link here.  This is from Bexar County, Texas, the county of San Antonio:

SAN ANTONIO – New data from the Texas Home School Coalition (THSC) shows a breakdown of all homeschool withdrawals from Texas public schools since 1997 and, based on the numbers, Northside and North East Independent School Districts in San Antonio had some of the highest withdrawal rates in Texas.

“Between 1997-2019, withdrawals from public schools to homeschool in Texas increased 228% compared to a 41% increase in public school enrollment over the same period,” the THSC report found.

The map of Texas school districts shows that between 1997 and 2018, both school districts had the third and fifth highest withdrawal rates.

Top five districts with the number of withdrawn students from 1997 to 2018:

  • Houston ISD - 9,776 students
  • Cypress-Fairbanks ISD - 8,040 students
  • Northside ISD - 7,513 students
  • Conroe ISD - 6,204 students
  • North East ISD - 4,907 students

It’s worth noting, NEISD and NISD frequently rank among the top school districts in the Bexar County area.

Earlier I mentioned that my spellchecker and grammar expert was a bit "under-the-weather," as they say. 

She appears to have fully recovered. 

This is Sophia an hour ago homeschooling.


 Why would any student not like homeschooling? Note Corky is also in attendance.

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iPhone Camera In Portrait Mode

As long as I'm at it, can you believe how good this photo is -- an iPhone 11 (?) in "portrait mode." This was taken by Sophia's mom after Corky returned home from a long absence. Apparently Corky visited California on her way home from Chicago back to her home in Grapevine, TX. 

Dividends

January 6, 2021: anticipation

December 21, 2020:  

December 3, 2020:

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Dividends

Start

BK

7/27/21

EPD

7/30/21

OKE

8/2/21

KMI

8/2/21

ET

8/6/21

AAPL

8/9/21

SCCO

8/12/21

ENB

8/13/21

AMGN

8/17/21

BKH

8/18/21

MPC

8/18/21

PSX

8/18/21

CVX

8/19/21

DFS

8/19/21

MNRL

8/20/21

JNJ

8/24/21

YUMC

8/25/21

YUM

8/27/21

UNP

8/31/21

QCOM

9/2/21

WMB

9/10/21

DVN

9/13/21

MRK

9/15/21

TTE

9/20/21

SCHD

9/23/21

SCHB

9/23/21

SCHG

9/23/21

SRE

9/24/21

CSCO

10/5/21

CMCSA

10/6/21

EOG

10/15/21

COP

10/28/21

PFE

11/5/21

HP

11/23/21

MCD

12/1/21

WMT

12/20/21

Apple

March 15, 2021: Apple overtook Samsung to become world's largest smartphone maker in 4Q20. Link here

Apple produced 77.6 million iPhones units in the fourth quarter of 2020, 69.8 million of which were iPhone 12 models, helping the company overtake Samsung to become the top global smartphone brand. 
The analysts' latest report says Apple sold 10 million more phones than its biggest rival over the quarter, with Samsung selling 67 million phones, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14%. By contrast, Apple recorded an 85% increase QoQ, driven in part by Apple's support for 5G across its latest smartphone lineup and its adoption of an aggressive pricing strategy.

February 8, 2021: talks between Hyundai/Kia and Apple have broken off. 

February 2, 2021: Hyundai battery; Apple could partner with GM.

January 28, 2021: record 1Q21; blows away forecasts; most incredible record ever;

January 14, 2021:

January, 9, 2021:

January 5, 2021:

  • 1Q21 (Oct - Dec 20) results: after market closes, 5:00 p.m. Wednesday, January 27, 2021;

December 29, 2020:

December 26, 2020:

  • much more variety than Peleton, 
    • Apple Fitness+ gets rave review; requires an Apple Watch to set up; 
    • subscription, $7.99 / month or $79.99 / year. Link here

December 25, 2020:

December 3, 2020:

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Apple

Chips are tracked here.

Chevron Slashes Spending Plans -- CVX Jumps -- December 3, 2020

As an investor, how excited am I about 2021? Very. 

I have added an "Investors Page" to the top of the blog (far right). 

In addition, I have added "fossil fuel" to the top of that "Investors Page."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Chevron slashes spending.

CVX:

  • up about a percent in early trading; now up about 0.7%
  • pays almost 6%

Majors will do what they can to protect their dividends.

The majors tread water for four years. 

What happens after four years? Depends on whether we see the end of demand for oil. 

Skywatch: Conjunction Of Jupiter - Saturn Later This Month -- December 3, 2020

This is really, really cool. Link here.

Sophia and I follow the night sky almost every evening. We have been following the moon, Mars, Saturn, and Jupiter for the past several months. 

Early on, the moon was in the lead as the four crossed the night sky on successive evenings. But like the hare and the turtle, gradually, Saturn/Jupiter overtook the moon and are clearly in the lead. Mars is still lagging. 

Sophia and I can spot Jupiter and Saturn almost immediately every evening. Mars takes a few more seconds. LOL. But easy to find. And we confirm them on our "skywatch" app on the iPhone.

A reader sent me this: "Christmas Star" to light up December sky for first time in 800 years. Wow, Jupiter and Saturn have been separated by about one outstretched hand-width. Jupiter is already one of the brightest "stars" if not the brightest just after sunset. Saturn is not nearly as bright but it's so close to Jupiter it is easy to find. 

From the linked article:

On Dec. 21, humans can witness something not seen in nearly 800 years. That’s right, during the upcoming winter solstice, Jupiter and Saturn will line up to create what is known as the “Christmas Star” or “Star of Bethlehem.” 


Of the many "theories" / speculations about the "Christmas star," the conjunction of Saturn - Jupiter is only one of many and appears to be one of the least likely. That doesn't make the skywatch any less interesting, it's just important to make sure that this doesn't become "fake science." Especially when Sophia is involved. LOL.

Like most Christian holidays, the origin of December 25th as Christmas also has a long, long pre-Christian history

Chinese Flu Watch -- North Dakota Drops Off Top-5 List -- Johns Hopkins -- December 3, 2020

Link here.

The "brown" is really, really thinning out. 

North Dakota drops out of the top five.


Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- Part 2 -- December 3, 2020

Oh-oh: it's being reported that Ford-150 sales are down 46% in November as new model rolls out, or is it, as new models roll out? Apparently prospective buyers are waiting for the e-models. LOL. Let's see what F is doing in pre-market trading: up 4 cents, trading at $9.23.  Later, from a reader. I thought this story was strange -- the best-selling vehicle in the US -- sales drop 46% -- "something needs to be going on." From a reader and I bet he's right on target. Huge thanks to the reader:I noticed the reference to F150 sales being way down and that is not surprising. 

Based on what is seen at my local dealership (WI) they do not have the inventory to sell. All summer until now they have been lucky to have a half dozen F150's on the lot and last year at this time there were 50+ at all times.

The same goes for the Chev and Ram dealers in the area, very limited inventory. You cannot sell what you do not have! The supply chain appears to be very fractured.

I've heard the same thing from my son-in-law who works for a big truck manufacturing company. They have had a devil of a time getting parts due to a "broken" supply line. 

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Working From Home

The vaccine: it's too bad this is behind a paywall; it's a great story on how Moderna/BioNTech developed the west's first Covid-19 vaccine so quickly. The link is to The WSJ. I'll post some excerpts later. But this should get your attention. This was done in Europe by two Turkish physicians living and working in Turkey and had nothing to do with WarpSpeed. From the linked article:

In January, days before the illness was first diagnosed in Europe, he used this knowledge to design a version of the vaccine on his home computer.
On his personal computer. At home. He comes up with the west's first Covid-19 vaccine. Okay.What am I missing here?

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Note: there will be more typographical and content errors than usual this morning. My spellchecker and grammerly authority, Sophia ,is sleeping in this morning. She's a bit "under-the-weather" as they say.  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The market

  • IBD headlines:
    • stimulus deal hopes revive, helping market hold gains
    • CrowdStrike leads three earnings breakouts
    • Tesla rises (LOL; "rises'; it's surging)
  • MarketWatch:
    • investors are overlooking this one thing: major bank sets 4,000 target on S&P
  • NY Times:
    • one percent of PPP borrowers got over one-quarter of the loan money
  • Fox Business
    • November bankruptcies hit 14-year low with steep drop in personal filings
    • former Zappos CEO Tony Hsiah apparently died wihtout a will; billionaire apparently couldn't afford $49 LegalZoom fee
    • Walmart+ waiving $35 delivery fee for its members during holiday season; huge;

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- December 3, 2020

First things first: third-world nation out west. Headline: southern California braces for area's biggest power cuts this year. Link here

  • Power shutoffs have begun that could wind up affecting more than 1M people in southern California, as high winds raise the risk of live wires sparking wildfires. 
  • Southern California Edison says it cut electricity to 9,313 homes and businesses as of 6:49 p.m. local time, last night, December 2, 2020, which it says could be the first power outages among more than 272K customer accounts in eight counties, or 816K people based on the size of the average household, which would comprise the region's largest safety blackout this year.
  • Sempra Energy's San Diego Gas & Electric utility also warns that 88,700 homes and businesses, or more than 260K people, could lose power tonight (December 2, 2020)  or tomorrow morning (December 3, 2020), and possibly remain dark through Sunday or Monday. 
  • Dry winds strong enough to knock down power lines are forecast to hit southern California through Thursday, exposing more than 6.4M people to critical fire weather, says the National Weather Service and the U.S. Storm Prediction Center. 
  • Edison cut power to thousands of customers on Thanksgiving because of high winds, as utilities across the state have cut power repeatedly to power lines from falling into dry brush.

Someday I will draw you a picture why this happening. It all has to do with renewable energy. Well, at least most of it has to do with the push for renewable energy. Do you remember these stories twenty years ago -- California utilities cutting power in California? You have to ask yourself, what changed?

Pipeline capacity exceeded: no, not crude oil or natural gas. The holiday delivery pipeline. There were so many on-line orders UPS stopped picking up packages at Big Box stores. Link here. 

UPS slaps shipping limits on Gap, Nike to manage e-commerce surge. Delivery giant instructed drivers not to pick up some packages on Cyber Monday as pandemic fueled online shopping.  
United Parcel Service Inc. imposed shipping restrictions on some large retailers such as Gap Inc. GPS -3.37% and Nike Inc. this week, an early sign that the pandemic-fueled online shopping season is stretching delivery networks to their limits.

The delivery giant on Cyber Monday notified drivers across the U.S. to stop picking up packages at six retailers, including L.L. Bean Inc., Hot Topic Inc., Newegg Inc. and Macy’s Inc., M 5.38% according to an internal message viewed by The Wall Street Journal and confirmed by UPS workers in different regions. “No exceptions,” the message said.

The move comes during a holiday season when retailers are increasingly dependent on delivery companies to move online orders, as store traffic has plummeted during the coronavirus pandemic—a dynamic that has shifted power significantly. UPS and rival FedEx Corp. have raised prices and promised to hold merchants to volume agreements.

The temporary limits, which some drivers say they haven’t seen during previous holiday seasons, are a sign that UPS is metering the flow of packages into its network to preserve its performance during one of the busiest shipping weeks of the year. The National Retail Federation estimated that online shopping jumped 44% over a recent five-day stretch that included Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Market: Wall Street is already increasing its 2021 price targets. Why 2021 provides a "perfect backdrop" for the stock market. This was in my e-mail -- a daily note from Yahoo!Finance. I never read the article, but it's interesting to see the headline.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

By the way, I do agree. It's going to be an incredible year for investors. Without question the gap between the haves and the have-nots will widen. The investor class will continue to do very, very well. And, again, the mid-term elections will force the Dems to get the economy going. I only watch TCM and sports-talk television (with some occasional exceptions) and it's going to be fun to watch the ESPN folks (and everyone else in media, I suppose) change the narrative on Covid-19 once the new administration is in place. 

Speaking of which. I see this as a bit of desperation. Former president Obama says he will "take" the Chinese flu virus vaccine and do it on live television to build confidence. Desperation? I see the Dems desperate to turn this narrative around. It will be fun to watch. I still see solitary walkers at 5;00 a.m. wearing masks. Given me a break. And, oh, by the way, you really think Obama will be getting anything other than normal saline injected? 

And we move on

Note: there will be more typographical and content errors than usual this morning. My spellchecker and grammerly authority, Sophia ,is sleeping in this morning. She's a bit "under-the-weather" as they say. 

CLR And Slawson Will Each Report One Well Today -- Thursday, December 3, 2020

First things first: headline -- "market under pressure after record-breaking rally."  So I checked the pre-market Dow -- down ... drum roll ... I hope you're sitting down ... down 30 points. LOL. Under pressure? The Yahoo!Finance headline writer clearly knows something I don't. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

TSLA: it's gonna surge today. GS raised its target price for TSLA. So I checked pre-market TSLA -- already up over 3%; already up over $18/share.

AAPL: appears to be holding; up slightly in pre-market trading. 

Jobless claims: is it Thursday already? Yawn.

Biggest question everyone is asking: when does the market crash? 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs

$45.01⇣
12/3/202012/03/201912/03/201812/03/201712/03/2016
Active Rigs1455655339

Wow, that Midwest AgEnergy Group, LLC, rig is still on the active list. How long does it take to drill a carbon capture and storage well? This rig must be going on two months. A typical Bakken well is drilled within a few days. 

Two wells coming off the confidential list --Thursday, December 3: 3 for the month; 59 for the quarter, 724 for the year

  • 37535, loc/NC, CLR, Kennedy 15-31HSL, Dimmick Lake,
  • 37423, loc/NC, Slawson, Tempest Federal 2-14H, Big Bend,

RBN Energy: the 2021 outlook for key misdtream-sector players.  

There’s no question, the pressures on many U.S. midstream companies have been steadily increasing for some time now, and the past few months have really tested them. Like exploration and production companies, refiners, and others in the energy space, midstreamers have seen their well-considered plans for 2020 upended by demand destruction, commodity-price gyrations, and cutbacks in capex, drilling, and production. 

While it may be tempting to simply wait out the last few weeks of this crazy, unforgettable year and hope that 2021 will be better, there’s actually at least some good news out there for the midstream sector, and good reason to believe that midstreamers have been positioning themselves to financially weather whatever next year may have in store. Today, we discuss highlights from East Daley Capital’s newly issued 2021 Midstream Guidance Outlook, which focuses on key trends affecting midstream asset owners.