Sunday, September 18, 2022

Focus On Fracking -- September 18, 2022

Link here. The lede:

  • US oil supplies at a 19 year low; 
  • gasoline supplies at 42 week low; 
  • global oil surplus at 1,630,000 barrels per day 

When will this "catch up to us"?

  • US oil supplies at a 19 year low; 
  • gasoline supplies at 42 week low; 

Only thing I see when I see this: global recession.

  • global oil surplus at 1,630,000 barrels per day  

US oil data from the US Energy Information Administration

For the week ending September 9th showed that despite a big drop in our oil imports, a record draw of oil from our SPR meant we had unused oil left to add to our stored commercial crude supplies for the 2nd time time in 5 weeks, and for the 18th time in the past 42 weeks.... in other words, the SPR release was not needed, but we already knew that.

Our imports of crude oil fell by an average of 988,000 barrels per day to average 5,792,000 barrels per day, after rising by an average of 824,000 barrels per day during the prior week, while our exports of crude oil rose by 82,000 barrels per day to average 3,515,000 barrels per day, which meant that the net of our trade in oil worked out to an import average of 2,277,000 barrels of oil per day during the week ending September 9th, 1,070,000 fewer barrels per day than the net of our imports minus our exports during the prior week

Over the same period, production of crude from US wells was reportedly unchanged at 12,100,000 barrels per day, and hence our daily supply of oil from the net of our international trade in oil and from domestic well production appears to have totaled an average of 14,377,000 barrels per day during the September 9th reporting week

Sweden -- Long, Long Neutrality -- Who Would Have Ever Thought Sweden Would Join NATO -- And Be Admitted -- Literally -- Overnight -- Over Turkey's Ill-Conceived Objections -- September 18, 2022

Wow, I love the blog. Either I actually know what I'm talking about or I'm very lucky. Probably the latter.

The other day I posted this as part of a much longer blog:

Putin's goal only a few years ago was to re-establish the Russian Empire, weaken NATO, and work to break up the EU.

The former Russian Empire seems in worse shape than ever (see below) and NATO has added two more countries (Sweden and Finland).

US is arming Poland to the teeth, as they say, and now there is talk of long-range missiles being moved to Ukraine. 

Biden's militarization of eastern Europe is said-to-be "generational."

Russia's southern border is on fire.

Again, this is what  I posted:

The former Russian Empire seems in worse shape than ever (see below) and NATO has added two more countries (Sweden and Finland)

Hold that thought.

Now, tonight from Carl Bildt (wiki) over at twitter

Compared to some NATO leaders, this guy actually looks like a military commander.

An Oasis Nikolai Federal Well Has Been Completed; Producing -- September 18, 2022

The well:

  • 37623, loc/A, Oasis, Nikolai Federal 5297 11-6 6B, Banks, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 107K 9/21; 33-053-09449; fracked 5/6/21 - 5/15/21; 10.6 million gallons of water; fresh water, 89.7% water by mass; 107K in less than four months; cum 196K 7/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2022314938494092572933728624400
BAKKEN6-2022305462546093022549125014158
BAKKEN5-20223158735878761432423320800
BAKKEN4-20223067416738114183900938132482
BAKKEN3-2022317574757412608400773954499
BAKKEN2-202228768476811190442928412401267
BAKKEN1-20223194239445145745514454060570
BAKKEN12-2021311179411785174466963068428572
BAKKEN11-2021291196411959155244716145801739
BAKKEN10-2021291690516912226327377572086861
BAKKEN9-202130266152660129401102201993021687
BAKKEN8-202131301963019520597286944761539
BAKKEN7-20213130880308943081489450832104911
BAKKEN6-20212919459194303650258392570741125
BAKKEN5-202131000000

Two CLR Norfolk Wells IIn North Tobacco Garden Trending Toward 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- NFL: Bengals At Dallas -- Holy Mackerel -- The Cowboys Just Won -- On The Final Play -- September 18, 2022

The wells:

  • 29000, 1,249, CLR, Norfolk 7-1H, middle Bakken, 40 stages, 4.6 million lbs, t5/15; cum 431K 5/20; cum 465K 10/21; cum 491K 7/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223024142549370026865265570
BAKKEN6-20223039584047426733802316121800
BAKKEN5-20223131052899318812734123310
BAKKEN4-202228182719621824790776090
BAKKEN3-2022312725250823521103210185450

  • 20676, 567, CLR, Norfolk 1-1H, middle Bakken, 30 stages, 2.6 million lbs, t8/11; cum 485K 5/20; cum 491K 10/21; cum 496K 7/22; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223141652468313828134090
BAKKEN6-20223048449667013504118591240
BAKKEN5-20223154751274614216137970
BAKKEN4-20223055050472812137117390
BAKKEN3-20223157853686312855124360
BAKKEN2-20222853253495711353109750

************************
NFL

There may be / may have been an NFL game today as good as the Bengals - Dallas game that is currently in the fourth quarter but none better. 

With 3:45 left in the fourth quarter, the Bengals marched the entire field to tie it up 17 - 17, after converting on the two-point-ATD.

I've flip-flopped numerous times with regard to the NFL the past several years, but for me, the NFL is back!

And then, NASCAR! Nope, just kidding -- that was last night. Wow, that was a painful race for the drivers. Engines blowing up; cars not performing well for unknown reasons, but we got through it, and moved from the field of sixteen to the field of twelve.

I would make one change to the playoffs, but in the big scheme of things, the playoff scheme is almost perfect.

It looks like the Bengals - Dallas game will go into overtime. 

With 24 seconds, will Dallas kick a field goal? No more time outs. Four seconds left. A 50-yarder! It's good. Dallas wins!

**************************
The Sermon

Here We Go! China Opens Up -- September 18, 2022

Link here.


Beautiful Autumn Day In New York -- And They're Paying $300 For Electricity -- September 18, 2022

Link here.

Shameful.

Reminder:

  • Texas (ERCOT) has a demand problem.
  • ISO New York and ISO New England both have a supply problem.

Random Note On Starbucks -- September 18, 2022

Updates

September 19, 2022: the sixteen US stores that Starbucks will close. Wow, per capita, closing six in greater Seattle compared to six in greater Los Angele is simply breath-taking. 

If this is really safety / crime, it speaks volumes about Seattle. Compared to Los Angeles, Seattle is a back-water, trivial pueblo. If I were to visit Los Angeles today, it is completely unlikely that I would come anywhere near to any neighborhood where these six Starbucks are going to close. On the other hand, I would very likely be in three or four of those neighborhoods in Seattle. Same holds true for Portland.

  • six in greater Los Angeles
  • six in greater Seattle
  • two in Portland, OR
  • one in Philadelphia
  • one in DC

Original Post 

Pre-Covid I was at Starbucks every weekday working on the blog. 

Since March, 2020, I have not gone to my local Starbucks even once. I have gone to out-of-town Starbucks on two occasions in the past six months, associated with my cross-country trip to Montana. It's still a great experience, but at home, the Starbucks K-pod at home is costing me less than 50 cents for a cup of coffee. At Starbucks, my average expenditure was $4.00 and several hundred calories (chocolate croissant). At home, I never, never have a chocolate croissant; I have oatmeal. 

I see that Starbucks is now starting to close stores in high-crime areas. Link: 

  • https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/starbucks-makes-good-promise-close-more-stores-crime-rages-new-orleans.

From the linked article:

A popular Starbucks location in New Orleans will close next month due to safety concerns, just weeks after Starbucks' top executive said crime will force stores across the country to close. 

The Canal Street Starbucks location has been in operation for nine years. It will officially close on October 3, 2022.

Starbucks officials announced in July that 16 stores across the country were closing due to safety concerns. 

On a separate note, at least one Starbucks restaurant has now unionized and apparently a second store is considering doing the same.

My hunch is that Starbucks management is getting ahead of this union move, and will use "we-need-to-close-this-store-for-safety-reasons" rationale for closing other Starbucks for "other" unstated reasons. 

The NLRB can investigate but it's hard to argue against closing a store where customers and employees are at risk for their own safety.

SCO9 -- A Joke -- Putin Rebuilding The Russian Empire -- September 18, 2022

This turned out to be a huge joke.

I assume it was Putin who wanted this meeting and who arranged this meeting.

I assume Putin wanted to "replicate" the G7 or the G20 or the EU or NATO or ASEAN or any similar western cooperative and so we got the SCO9 composed of

  • Russia
  • China
  • North Korea (in absentia)
  • Tajikistan
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Uzbekistan
  • Kazakhstan
  • India (hard to believe)
  • Pakistan (believable)

Perhaps in time, we get Afghanistan and Azerbaijan. Most of these countries are at war with each other.

For full listing of the "stan brothers" see this post.

China-Russia Axis
Not All It's Cracked Up To Be

September 18, 2022: Shanghai Cooperation Council.

Putin's meeting with Xi highlights Russia's waning status on the world stage, link here.

Data points for SCO9 - 2022:
  • Chinese President Xi Jingping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since the start of the Ukraine war. 
  • The two discussed Taiwan, Ukraine, and more, with China emphasizing finding a balance between Russia and the West. 
  • While Xi in many respects doubled down on China's relationship with Russia while in Uzbekistan, the Chinese leader has show sensitivity to Eurasia’s growing anxieties over Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. 
Other data points:
  • summit in Uzbekistan's ancient Silk Road city of Samarkand
  • the first meeting between Putin and Xi since February in Beijing just days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when they signed a joint statement declaring the partnership between the two countries had "no limits."
  • set up in 2001, the SCO consisted of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan before expanding in 2017 to include India and Pakistan. The summit offers a symbolic venue for the leaders as they look to deepen their partnership and voice opposition to the West.
  • both Beijing and Moscow view the SCO as a vehicle to oppose Western-led institutions and offer what officials from both countries have framed as an alternative world order. China also appears eager to respond to the United States following an August visit to Taiwan by U.S. House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, which Beijing said was "provocative."

Petro-Hunt Has A Gaggle Of Monster Wells -- September 18, 2022

Locator: 10010GAGGLE.

See this note.

The parent well:

  • 17668, 1,163, Petro-Hunt, USA 3D-4-4H, Charlson, t9/09; cum 505K 8/19; cum 668K 1/21; cum 793K 7/22; recent production; cum 833K 9/23;
oolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202231351735591287827533494277
BAKKEN6-202230387937711266965446304256
BAKKEN5-2022314741481817171303351987131
BAKKEN4-2022294548451018431229136938192
BAKKEN3-202229421641632009807910326764
BAKKEN2-20222856335711197014315214118
BAKKEN1-20223169416885231915670115452
BAKKEN12-2021316743684025781673140215676
BAKKEN11-2021307463746627421691227416124
BAKKEN10-20213181288150405617966017750
BAKKEN9-2021308814868143881688227639282
BAKKEN8-2021319383939746691794537129888
BAKKEN7-2021311071910747570920238415610607
BAKKEN6-2021301101811040730119146390210393

The daughter wells:

  • 38667, conf, Petro-Hunt, ...3A-33-5H,
  • 38668, conf, Petro-Hunt, ...3A-33-4H,
  • 38669, conf, Petro-Hunt, ...3A-33-3H,
  • 34653, 651, Petro-Hunt, ...3D-10-5H, Charlson, t2/21; cum 365K 7/22;
  • 34654, 903, Petro-Hunt, ...3D-10-6H, Charlson, t1/21; cum 407K 7/22;
  • 38670, conf, Petro-Hunt, ...3A-33-2H,
  • 38671, conf, Petro-Hunt, ...3A-33-1H,

Production:

  • 34653, TD = 1726! USA 153-95-3D-10-5H, t--;um 448K 9/23;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223110060100833868549782313028642
BAKKEN6-20223010431104163921483262389421340
BAKKEN5-20223111468115044194411932044518614
BAKKEN4-20222911640117604290430242196319616
BAKKEN3-20223113519136304972410431564623760
BAKKEN2-20222813383133334211443912543416432
BAKKEN1-20223116488164214868487121267322480
BAKKEN12-20213119118190796021595421500527186
BAKKEN11-20213021340216086858607151690324933
BAKKEN10-20213124345241166698566441662419555
BAKKEN9-20213025246254096853536061056025334
BAKKEN8-20213128161281827652536121300925522
BAKKEN7-20213127081268756703466981026022922
BAKKEN6-20213027513275677475449641100620411
BAKKEN5-20213125002249146857380811193712141
BAKKEN4-2021302277322868613635972131019243
BAKKEN3-2021312318023036733228985205407611
BAKKEN2-2021282834128487101494405443007852
BAKKEN1-20211259065342130273887031336
  • 34654, TD = 17046!
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223112205122616180609312696530264
BAKKEN6-20223013161131006531569032882224395
BAKKEN5-20223115021150687003571172904325133
BAKKEN4-20222915969160506068562992335431421
BAKKEN3-20223118748185867111521622101529022
BAKKEN2-20222818653188546986567903252421092
BAKKEN1-20223122769227748452605531580228096
BAKKEN12-20213124699247618617600291553026541
BAKKEN11-20213026649266548240571161608823059
BAKKEN10-20213127378272447462484901433516509
BAKKEN9-2021302823128182724948035981821749
BAKKEN8-20213132934331237704551741309426900
BAKKEN7-20213132411323448581529021154026159
BAKKEN6-20213034288341889256546221347524561
BAKKEN5-20213129004290048919445681388314435
BAKKEN4-20213027206271051024542134151422832
BAKKEN3-2021312574525853986031994232677794
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20212163110283192782744

The graphics:


Petro-Hunt: Three More Monster Wells -- September 18, 2022

The well:

  • FracFocus: no frack data.
  • Three newer wells in same section:
    • 37150
    • 37151
    • 37152

The three newer wells:

  • 37150, 807, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-2B-11 1H, Charlson, t4/21; cum 387K 7/22;
  • 37151, 437, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-2A-11 2H, Charlson, t3/21; cum 242K 7/22;
  • 37152, 1,059, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-2A-11 3H, Charlson, t3/21; cum 439K 7/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223123422235714116590863989017212
BAKKEN6-20223022826226465036509233406115012
BAKKEN5-20223123833240314702479553502411055
BAKKEN4-20222922751225334512445532851514380
BAKKEN3-20223126349262524793476063296012786
BAKKEN2-20222825268253794136429242719114023
BAKKEN1-20223127365274244321414032030611871
BAKKEN12-20213126604263784415395591675612879
BAKKEN11-20213026852271424783397451470712765
BAKKEN10-20213127397273524896382801806910842
BAKKEN9-20213028726285985505393151760412356
BAKKEN8-20213132858329396739470201829119216
BAKKEN7-20213129385294697282393651001621459
BAKKEN6-202123180761777258511831871349245
BAKKEN5-20211520835208856575302231157717023
BAKKEN4-202130426924282312740577352329833627
BAKKEN3-202111134271282228461365122191139

Updating Production For A Petro-Hunt Monster Well -- September 18, 2022

 The well:

  • FracFocus: no frack data.
  • Three newer wells in same section:
    • 37150
    • 37151
    • 37152
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20223160826157100120045113657935
BAKKEN6-2022307470750673619257144294085
BAKKEN5-20223190869174169519796165562373
BAKKEN4-202229101421017976919307126455892
BAKKEN3-202231110431100658120574153094468
BAKKEN2-2022288676869048815192120232438
BAKKEN1-202231112251115454917709114023715
BAKKEN12-202131127031270262419328113315771
BAKKEN11-20213012293122165831790685816680
BAKKEN10-2021311108711236306215603124462357
BAKKEN9-2021301247612403165517228133483059
BAKKEN8-2021311139011476155215904104374713
BAKKEN7-2021311352813397130217875107195628
BAKKEN6-202130109371105137611480091994003
BAKKEN5-2021311437914339386718682126924720
BAKKEN4-2021251366213558550517961707210715
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20211800000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-2020145955630910282017866239
BAKKEN10-20201109001430142
BAKKEN9-202012690533300323
BAKKEN8-202021030291200
BAKKEN7-202021171748829022
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202836293722127746234543813
BAKKEN3-20203163936437280737430144144