China: Balancing a Floundering Russia and Angry Americans -- Peteer Zeihan -- September 18, 2022
Link here.
Things aren't looking great for Beijing.
Weeks of military posturing and a range of indirect-to-direct military
threats against Taiwan following United States Speaker of the House
Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei were meant to remind the world who's
boss. It would seem...not China.
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced yesterday that the US government would be halting sales of airframes and
related technology to Beijing for the foreseeable future, as a direct
response to Chinese agitation.
While the Chinese have responded with
some economic measures of their own, it is worth noting that there is
precious little in the way of meaningful replacements for what they were
seeking to buy from Boeing. This follows previous US de facto bans on
high-end silicon chip technology (including manufacturing tech and
equipment) making their way to China.
(Two points to mention during
upcoming holidays if there's a lull in conversation: for all the folks
in your life who are committed to a view that China is poised to take
over the world--they are utterly dependent on the US for a whole host of
critical technologies and inputs into their supply chains, not to
mention the facilitation of their global trade networks. And that the
Biden administration has struggled to put as much effort into anything
as it has into making Donald Trump's dream of using US trade policy to
cudgel China into reality, tweets and all.)
Expect the Europeans to follow the Americans' lead.
It's not entirely doom and gloom for the Chinese, though.
At a summit
earlier this week Russian president Vladimir Putin signaled he was ready
to cave to a number of long-standing Chinese demands as the Ukraine war
continues to go oh so very badly for Moscow.
With little end in sight
for European and American sanctions against the Russian economy, China
is in the catbird seat with regard to Russia. We'll see how long they'll
be able to use that to their advantage, however, and their broader
strategic position continues to look grim...
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.