Wednesday, April 22, 2026

CSX -- Never Saw This Coming -- AVGO -- $2 Trillion Market Cap -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50594CSX.

MU: why did Micron surge today? SK Hynix posted record first-quarter profit, in line with estimates based on higher memory prices.  With regard to the three, market share, how do they compare? Is anyone paying attention?

AVGO: this is pretty special. Link here. AVGO's market cap: $2 trillion -- only the sixth in US history to achieve that milestone. The other five: AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG. 

*****************************
CSX 

CSX reported nice earnings. Link here

After hours, shares surge. UNP will report earnings tomorrow morning before the market opens. Futures (UNP) flat after a down day today.

John C Phelan Is Sacked -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50593SACKED.

This absolutely makes my day. On April 10, 2026, just twelve days ago, I wrote:

I first "met" Peter Zeihan back in 2022, or thereabouts, when he published The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning, published June 14, 2022. The big -- almost my only -- takeaway from that book:

  • the importance of water for trade; and,
  • the US Navy, alone, protected free and safe passage on the water, worldwide.  

My notes, very, very sparse, on that book, are here.

Time to take a look at the current CNO and the former CNO:

  • current CNO: advanced degrees in engineering; naval career -- submariner.
  • former CNO: undergraduate degree in journalism; naval career -- mostly executive officer, assistant director, acting director positions -- surface warfare; appointed by Biden; sacked by Hegseth

US Secretary of the Navy

  • John C. Phelan
  • businessman (no military experience?)
  • huge fundraiser for Trump
  • art collector
  • married to former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader; date of marriage unknown, but long term romance; he was 36 or 37 years old when he married.  

Of the last ten US secretaries of the navy, how many have had no military experience? Even experience in the defense industry? One. Exactly one has had no military experience. John C. Phelan.

Of the recent U.S. Navy Secretaries, only one of the last ten (John Phelan, confirmed in 2025) has had no prior military experience. While some nominees in recent years faced scrutiny over limited background in national security, most secretaries in the last 15–20 years served in the armed forces or held high-level defense industry/government roles.

And folks are concerned about Hegseth? LOL. 

**********************************

So, to repeat the high points -- the point I was trying to make.

CNO: chief of naval operations. The most important US combatant commander -- the CNO -- submarines, nuclear missiles; air wings; and transportation arm for the US Marines. I can't think of a more important US combatant commander and then consider the geography of the world.

So under Biden, the CNO he appointed was a journalism major in college. Seriously, there is no degree less rigorous than journalism. Compare that CNO's background with every CNO before and since.

Then, the Secretary of the Navy -- this is who Trump appointed:  

  • John C. Phelan
    • businessman (no military experience)
    • huge fundraiser for Trump
    • art collector
    • married to former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader; date of marriage unknown, but long term romance; he was 36 or 37 years old when he married.  
      • how is the date of a marriage not known? In America, isn't there something like a marriage license required. Yes, I know common law marriages, but this source suggested there was a specific, but unknown, date.

Of the last ten US secretaries of the navy, how many have had no military experience? Even experience in the defense industry? One. Exactly one has had no military experience. John C. Phelan.

Of the recent U.S. Navy Secretaries, only one of the last ten (John Phelan, confirmed in 2025) has had no prior military experience. While some nominees in recent years faced scrutiny over limited background in national security, most secretaries in the last 15–20 years served in the armed forces or held high-level defense industry/government roles.

And you can't say the current president has had no military experience. He was a commander-in-chief for four years, 2017 - 2021.

****************************
Today: It's Being Announced -- John C Phelan is leaving.
 

Wow, wow, wow -- about time. It will be interesting to see who will replace him.

Hung Cao, the undersecretary of the Navy will be the acting secretary until Trump appoints a new secretary.

Hung Cao? Link here

After immigrating to the United States in 1975, Cao and his family moved to West Africa. He returned to Northern Virginia at the age of twelve and later graduated with the inaugural class of Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology. He entered the Navy as a Seaman Recruit in 1989 and was later commissioned as a Special Operations Officer from the United States Naval Academy in 1996.

As a Navy Diver, Cao led underwater missions around the world. As an Explosive Ordnance Disposal Officer, he led counter improvised threat missions for Special Warfare and Special Forces around the world with multiple deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia. In his final tour of duty, he led sensitive activities, exploitation, counter-messaging and counter-drone operations in support of the Geographic Combatant Commanders and Special Operations Command. He retired from active duty in October 2021 as a Captain.

Prior to his appointment, Cao was a Vice President and Client Executive at CACI International. He helped in fielding electronic warfare packages, counter-drone technology, optical communications, photonics, enterprise IT and shipyard infrastructure optimization in support of the Department of the Navy.

Cao is a decorated combat veteran, a qualified Navy Special Operations, EOD and Diving Officer, Naval Parachutist, and Surface Warfare Officer. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Ocean Engineering, a master’s degree in Applied Physics and was a Fellow with MIT Seminar XXI and Harvard Kennedy School. He is fluent in French and Vietnamese. Cao and his wife April have five children.

AI query: why was John C Phelan sacked?

Reply

  • As of April 22, 2026, the Pentagon announced that Navy Secretary John Phelan is leaving his post effective immediately, with sources confirming he was fired, according to reuters via tucson.com. No official reason was given for the sudden departure, which occurred after a 13-month tenure marked by internal friction and a wider shake-up of top US defense leadership by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

And folks are concerned about Hegseth. He's the least of our problems. In fact, he's taking care of a lot of problems. Exhibit A: John C. Phelan.

By the way, the meme -- Hegseth sacking military generals -- the meme -- it gets tedious. 

AMD: Soars Through $300 / Share -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50592AMD.

It goes without saying this was a 52-week high.

AMD's PEG: 0.6 to 1.4 -- relatively inexpensive.

Link here

***********************
The Book Page

AI Query: in the The Jewish Annotated New Testament it is stated that Paul was not a convert to Christianity because Christianity did not yet exist as a separate relgion in his time. If that's true, when and where do scholars feel Christianity first came along? 

Reply:

How Bad Is The Transportation Fuel Situation In California? April 22, 2026

Locator: 50591CA.

Link here

The Western Gateway Pipeline will connect Midwest and Gulf Coast refinery supply to Phoenix, Arizona and California markets with connectivity to Las Vegas, Nevada, via Kinder Morgan’s CALNEV pipeline.

This is actually pretty clever. One lateral will definitely get built. Let California take their time deciding what they want to do with their proposed lateral.  

**************************
Enola Gay

Link here

Huge Day For The Market -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50590B.

Jiu-Jitsu: Gen Z's version of Twister. Seriously. Google Gemini query. 

Kristi-Noem-purse thief: sentenced to three years in prison. Wow. 

MacBook Neo: I "had" to visit Costco today to pick up some gifts. The visit gave me a chance to see the new MacBook Neo. 

It really is amazing. To walk up to the Apple computers, and among high-end computers, there's a Neo that looks just like all there rest -- except for the price -- "in-person," seeing the $589 price tag is amazing. Did anyone really think we would ever see a state-of-the-art Apple laptop for under $600? 
Saying it's under $600 makes it sound even more expensive that it really is. It's $589 -- holy mackerel. Next fall it should qualify for Texas "back-to-school" tax-free weekend. I don't know, but it should. 

Heavy metal: copper on fire today; link here. Could test all-time highs. Both GLW and SCCO up 2% today. LUMN? Up 6% today

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $92.52. Up $2.84; up 3%. Most likely due to:

  • reports that Iran seized two tankers in the strait;
  • the US blockade on Iran is holding;
  • everyone knows Iran won't negotiate away their uranium or their control of monetizing the strait (i.e., diplomacy is over);
  • Trump, meanwhile, can simply sit, stalk, select.

Active rigs: 22.

Four new permits, #42855 - #42858, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hunt Oil (3); Hess
  • Fields: Thompson Lake, Burke County; Dimond, Burke County; Ross, Mountrail County;
  • Comments: 
    • Hess has a permit for a RS-Jones well, NWSW 35-136-92, 
      • to be sited 2043 FSL and 495 FWL;
    • Hunt Oil has permits for two Kandiyohi wells, SESW 31-160-90, 
      • to be sited 404 FSL and 1393 / 1423 FWL;  

Tesla Surges After-Hours -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50589TSLA.

Tesla earnings -- with report, shares surge 4.55%; up $17; will pull the market up with it tomorrow, all things being equal; remember: autos are now computers on wheels (COWs).

  • EPS: beats; 41 cents vs 37 cents
  • revenue: misses

IBM earnings -- reports beat on top lines and increases quarterly dividend; but maintains guidance; shares fall slightly. 

  • EPS:
  • revenue: 

LAM Research earnings -- reports beat on top lines and shares surge.

ServiceNow (NOW) earnings beat (?) -- but shares plummet 14%. 

April 22, 2206 -- "In The Short Run, The Market Is A Voting Machine ....

... but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." 

S&P 500, NASDAQ close at records

I wonder when folks will get the clue bug that we are in the fourth (sixth) industrial revolution. 

Locator: 50588AAPL.

I don't know if folks are following this, but it's absolutely fascinating.

The market surges today, hitting new records:

  • AAPL gains;
  • BRK-B falls.

I can't add anything to the Apple "news" that hasn't already been addressed by someone somewhere.

But, to me, it certainly appears that retail investors and now managed funds are dumping BRK. A vote of no confidence?

Three things to note:

  • Greg Abel appears to be going it alone -- the sole investment manager for BRK now? 
  • sells more of Apple; and,
  • buys NYT

In the old days if BRK sold AAPL, AAPL would fall, but today the news is out that BRK sold AAPL and AAPL surges.

BRKB is selling AAPL -- perhaps the best managed company in the world, and now, not only does the Apple CEO transition look like it's going very, very well, the changes in top leadership and reorganization appear to be making Apple even stronger:

  • the executive chairman is sticking around, moving to an independent advisory position; 
  • Tim Cook is moving to the executive chairman position; and,
  • Apple gets a hardware engineer who has been with Apple for 25 years, and is only 50 years old, to be the next CEO. Could John Ternes be a lot more like Steve Jobs, with Levinson and Cook his guardrails? 

Meanwhile, to paraphrase Orson Welles in The Third Man, what is BRK doing? Selling AAPL and buying NYT. I can't make this up. In addition, BRK keeps adding to Japanese multi-industry conglomerates just as Japan is facing an energy crisis of fairly huge proportions.  

Market today:

BRKB today:

AAPL today

What will it take to right the BRK ship?

So, What Changed? April 22, 2026

Locator: 50587RAINFOREST.

Link here.

Midday Market -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50586MARKET.

BRKB: again, on a day the market surges --


 The market:

Micron: new 52-week high. 


 

GE Venova: gapped up 12.5%. A few weeks ago, my note to the extended family -- two of the three GE companies need to be core holdings.  


Chart Of The Month -- Fascinating -- A Harvard Case Study? Avis Surges 500% In One Month -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50585AVIS.

Monumental short squeeze? One hundred percent of the stock owned by two investors? 

Link here

 **************************
The Book Page

Link here

The book of interest: Why I Am Not An Athiest, The Confessions of a Skeptical Believer, Christopher Beha, former editor of Harper's., February 17, 2026. 

Over at Amazon.  

I've not read the book. I have not decided whether to order it or not. 

Might be a book for a church book club to consider.

Among many accolades:

All this for only $25?!

Lewis H. Lapham, wiki

The review, the lede:

All Eyes On Ternes -- MacRumors -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50584APPLE.

Link here

Interesting, I made this very same comment -- but didn't attribute it to Ternes - just made the observation that FSD was not one of Apple's core competencies. I was surprised to read that Ternes pushed back on VR. 

He is also reportedly ready to push back when it matters – Ternus apparently opposed development of the Vision Pro, which has flopped, as well as the company's autonomous car project that cost around $10 billion, but was ultimately scrapped.

This is what everyone is watching: 

Earlier this month, Ternus reportedly reorganized the hardware engineering division around a new AI platform designed to speed up product development and improve device quality. Ternus is said to be keen to deploy AI quickly throughout Apple to improve its operations, suggesting he is willing to make clear calls and shake things up where necessary. Ternus has also told employees he will remain closely involved in hardware engineering development, indicating a sharper focus on products. 

***************************
Selection Process 

AI query: Apple CEO: new CEO. Who are the members on the Apple, Inc Board of Directors. Who do you think were instrumental in choosing John Ternes -- which members of the board? Tim Cook's role?

Reply:

 
One has to admit this is a very, very interesting board. The most important change -- Tim Cook replacing Arthur D Levinson. Interestingly, currently Levinson is also CEO of Calico, an Alphabet venture, link here, another example of close relationship between Google and Apple. And perhaps a reason why Apple is so interested in medical / healthy life-style apps on their wearables. Just a thought. 
 
Having said that, Arthur Levinson will remain at Apple, transitioning from non-executive chairman to Lead Independent Director effective September 1, 2026.  I am unable to find the name of the current LID, assuming there was one. It appears this is a new position. If so, the Apple board has gotten significantly stronger.
 
Hardware: Ternes likes hardware. Somehow Apple needs to get a new product out in front of the high-end retail consumer. What would be a nice new box for Apple to sell? Is it time for Apple to to partner with Canon? I queried Google Gemini. The reply:
 

It's hard to believe John Ternes won't take a different path than Tim Cook. Also at TechCrunch.
 
Apple likes money. Link here to appleinsider.   

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Locator: 50583B.

BRK: looks like BRKB will have another miserable day.

Gates: as in Bill Gates. Legacy in tatters? Melinda knows. Gates Foundation gutted. Buffett walked away a long time ago. Link here. Will testify June 10, 2026.

Energy: link here

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $90.28. 

New wells reporting

  • Wednesday, April 22, 2026: 71 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 228 for the year,
    • 41791, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12D-S, 
    • 41380, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-8H-ELL, 
    • 41103, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-7H, 
    • 41102, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-6H, 
    • 41101, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-5H, 
    • 40793, conf, Hess, GO-Seaton-156-98-0607H-3, 
  • Tuesday, April 21, 2026: 65 for the month, 65 for the quarter, 222 for the year,
    • 41790, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12G-S
    • 41789, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12H-S, 

RBN Energy: organic oil and gas reserve replacement continues to dip on conservative investment. Link here. Archived.

Energy industry cheerleaders tout vast supplies of untapped U.S. oil and gas resources, but increasingly limited volumes that can be practically and profitably developed — and their desire to follow a cash-return model — have left producers struggling to organically replace proven reserves. The percentage of hydrocarbon production replaced through finding and developing has been cascading since 2018 and dipped below 100% in 2025 for the first time in more than a decade. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review 2025 U.S. E&P reserve reporting and analyze the trends that are limiting the industry’s ability to ramp up future output.

First, let’s define oil and gas reserves and review how producers report them. Proved reserves are quantities of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs assumed to have at least a 90% chance of eventual recovery under existing economic and operating conditions (see Square One). In contrast, probable reserves have a 50% chance of technical and economic recovery, while possible reserves have only a 10% chance of recovery. Oil and gas companies are mandated to report their proved reserves in their annual Form 10-K’s. The changes result from four factors:

  • Extensions and discoveries, the most impactful, are reserves unlocked through the development of existing fields and the successful exploration of new properties. These additions are funded by the company’s annual organic — or finding and development (F&D) — capital spending. The level and effectiveness of this investment is critical to the long-term sustainability of an E&P. 
  • Revisions of previous estimates generally result from changes in commodity prices — lower prices can make certain volumes uneconomic to produce, while higher realizations nudge volumes into the proved category. Poor or better-than-expected well performance can also change estimates of future recoverable volumes from a field.
  • Purchases and divestitures reflect the net result of M&A activity.
  • Production volumes are subtracted from beginning-of-year reserves and current-year reserve additions to arrive at current year-end reserves.

The key measures of the quality and long-term sustainability of a company’s oil and gas properties are the costs incurred in organically replacing reserves through extensions and discoveries — see the first bullet above. These include development activities, such as drilling and completing wells, adding infrastructure such as roads and processing facilities, water handling and disposal, and other expenses. They also include exploration costs for finding new oil and gas reserves. What producers call the F&D replacement rate is calculated by dividing their total organic reserve additions by their total production. F&D costs are calculated by dividing the total exploration and development costs by the volume of organic reserve additions.

As shown in Figure 1 below, reserve F&D replacement rates (orange line and right axis) declined from a high of 228% in 2018 to just 93% in 2025. The steep fall from the peak resulted from sharp cutbacks in organic capital investment as oil prices plummeted in late 2019 and cratered with the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. The rate temporarily rose on catch-up activity in 2021 but has fallen since. At the same time, F&D costs (blue bars and left axis) nearly doubled from the $6/boe range in 2016-21 to about $12/boe in 2023-25.

Figure 1. F&D Costs and Replacement Rates, 2014-25. Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics LLC

 

 

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Elon Musk, SpaceX Could Buy Cursor -- April 21, 2026

Locator: 50582MUSK.

Colossus 2 is tracked here

Supercomputers are tracked here.  

Is This What Apple's New CEO Is Walking Into? April 21, 2026

Locator: 50582AAPL.

This is not an investment site:  (see blog's disclaimer).

Market cap:

  • AAPL: $3.91 trillion. P/E: 34. PEG: 1.3 to 2.7. (PEG: uncomfortably high.)
  • DELL:  $137 billion. P/E: 24. PEG: 0.7 to 0.9. (PEGs under 1.0 are considered best value.)

PEG: MU -- to compare -- MU, April, 2026, MU's PEG is thought to be between  0.04 and 0.12 as of April 2026, indicating the stock is significantly undervalued relative to its explosive AI-driven earnings growth. This low ratio suggests that despite a higher P/E, projected earnings growth is so high that the stock is considered "cheap 

Is this what Apple's new CEO, John Ternes, is walking into? Did Dell get it right? Did Apple get it wrong (initially)? Can Apple right the ship? The AI decisions below were CEO-level decisions. A lot of this depends on how important this subject is to end users and how Dell and Apple market their products. 

AI query: AI. This is interesting. For the last couple of years, Apple has been coming under a lot of criticism for its stumbling wiith regard to AI (Siri) but what AI is Dell using? 

Reply:


Only the "MAX" time period looks good for AAPL; the five-year and the one-year comparison (AAPL / DELL) is atrocious for AAPL.

Re-Posting -- Investing As A Hobby -- April 21, 2026

Locator: 50581BRK.

Investing as a hobby (see blog's disclaimer):  

  • Global equity markets: South Korean stock market surges to new highs; US S&P 500, consecutive days of new highs, profit-taking pullbacks followed by new highs
    • Jamie Dimon: has seen distressing warning signs every quarter for ten years; keeps making new highs; 111% return over five years plus 2% dividend
  • BRK: has been flat since Charlie Munger died a few years ago; completely missed the AI revolution; one year return: down 7%; if one didn't know history, looks like poorly run mutual fund
    • MUTHX: one-year return - up 15% over past year
    • MDU: one-year return -- up 33% past year
    • UNP: one-year return -- 17% 
    •  AMZN - NYT (see below)
  • Young investors in tech revolution beating the socks off elderly, stick-in-the-mud, investors who grew up with BRK
  • Most exciting US stock market tickers, large cap:
    • if one only: AAPL; n of 1; 
    • if two: AMZN, AAPL; one could argue, AMZN is also n of 1; 
    • if three: AMZN, AAPL, MU; MU in US n of 1; globally, "the big three": MU, Samsung, SK Hynix -- quick, raise your hand if you hold SK Hynix.
  • Where to park large sums of money if one can't decide: SCHB 
  • BRK-NYT-AMZN -- link here


 

Three New Permits; Ten Permits Renewed; Two Permits Canceled -- April 21, 2026

Locator: 50580B.

WTI: $90.03. 

Active rigs: 22.

Three new permits, #42852 - #42854, inclusive:

  • Operators: BR (2); Hess
  • Fields: Dimmick Lake (McKenzie County); Stanley (Mountrail County);
  • Comments:
    • Hess has a permit for another RS-Piepkorn well, SENE 11-155-92, to be sited 2221 FNL and 436 FEL;
    • BR has permits for two permits (Clemens and Demicks Lake) in SESW 7-151-96, to be sited 438 FSL and 2081 / 2113 FWL; these permits look like they replaced two canceled permits; see below. 

Ten permits renewed:

  • Foundation Energy (10): all in Billings Country; oil fields: Roosevelt, Morgan Draw, Elkhorn Ranch, and Tree Top.

Two permits canceled:

  • BR (2): #39862 and #39865, Clemens and Demicks Lake, SESW 7-151-96, McKenzie County.

For Those Who Have Asked -- April 21, 2026

Locator: 50579B.

Link here


Link here
.


Machine Language Capabilities -- Random Look -- Apple Transition -- Tim Cook --> John Ternus -- April 21, 2026

Locator: 50578APPLE.

Tim Cook is really leaving John Ternus with a nice stable of integrated workstations, laptops, iPhones, watches, etc. Interestingly, Ternus has a huge experience with VR. I've always felt Americans were not ready for VR as marketed by META or Apple. It will be interesting if Ternus can change that. It's not that the technology is not good -- it's probably way better than needed -- it (VR) is simply something for which Americans have not found a need. 

While the emphasis has been on LLM and AI and chatbots and .... and .... Apple has pretty much managed to widen the gap between itself and the competition.  

In addition to the hardware and software, it appears Tim Cook will leave an incredibly good blueprint for AI going forward. The Google - Apple partnership was brilliant. Somewhere along the line, Tim Cook reviewed the concept of "core competencies" (raise your hand if you recall "core competencies").  

AI prompt: Apple's MR chip's Neural Engine is capable of 38 trillion operations per second. How does that compare with TPUs (or similar) in typical Dell laptop? 

Reply

********************************
The MacBook Veo

AI prompt: MacBook Veo, what chip? The M4? 

Reply

******************************
Core Competencies

AI prompt: What year and which companies for strategic planning took the lead in advocating for and following "core competencies"? In other words, for US publicly traded corporations, when was the concept of "core competencies" a thing and which companies address their core competencies when laying out a strategic plan? 

Reply:  


Apple had to have a consumer-facing interface for AI and that turned out to be Siri. But, trying to develop its own machine language (AI / chatbot) was way, way, way too expensive and too challenging -- and definitely not one of Apple's core competencies -- just as building automobiles with FSD (supervised or not) was not one of Apple's core competencies. In fact, even for companies whose core competency is POV/FSD, it has not been an easy road. Exhibit A: Ford. Exhibit B: even Tesla is struggling.  

So, Apple pulled the plug on POV/FSD (as far as I know) early on -- one of the best things it ever did -- making that decision. Whether under new leadership .... 

Likewise,  Apple appears to have pulled the plug on their all-in-house chatbot (Siri) and gone with a hybrid -- Siri plus partnering with Google (Gemini) That was brilliant. They learned a lot in the process but their decision to partner with Google -- very, very smart. Hopefully that's all behind them now and John Ternus can move on to bigger, better and newer things.

California Fuel Price Volatility -- April 21, 2026

Locator: 50577CALIFORNIA.

AI prompt: RBN Energy posted a textbook long (hyperbole; it was only a page or so) analysis of transportation fuel issue in California. Takes forever to read and impossible to really get feel for what's going on in California, except that it's bad Succinctly, how is California doing with current oil situation and the Mideast War? 

Reply

Me: the transportation costs in California are out of control. Not only are prices per gallon high, commute distances are insane. And in southern California, even if the distance is not that long in miles, the traffic makes a one-hour commute (each way) seem normal and acceptable. In Los Angeles County, not unusual to drive two hours from the valley into work.  

The amazing thing: this has been going on for decades. It began during the OPEC crisis / embargo in 1973. I had just moved from the Dakotas to southern California where I was to spend the next decade of my life, and would still love to be there except for the taxes, the transportation issues, the politics (Pelosi, Newsom, Steyer and Kamala), and, The Los Angeles Times.

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Locator: 50576B.

Random thought: considering how long the strait has been closed; sanctions on Russian oil and natural gas; relatively strong global economy; minimal recent investment in renewable energy / nuclear -- the world seems to be chugging along pretty well -- South Korea and US stock markets at all-time highs. Europe has major war in backyard with Russia for five years and not much change. Imagine how things would be going if we just all got along.

For the archives:

  • President Trump to visit CNBC this a.m.; anybody's guess why. [Later: a nothing burger.]
  • ceasefire in Middle East precarious; strait still pretty much closed. [Later: status quo extended.]
  • Apple: Tim Cook steps down; 50ish-year-old, hardware engineer, John Ternes, named new CEO; smooth transition. 
  • Ternes assumes CEO position just as AI revolution in critical stage. It's important to remember AI is neither a core competency of Apple nor an Apple "division." AI is simply a tool that will be used by Apple (and, of course, embedded in Apple) but no more so than what Dell will be doing. See this concerning post.  

********************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $88.36

New wells reporting:

  • Wednesday, April 22, 2026: 71 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 228 for the year,
    • 41791, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12D-S, 
    • 41380, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-8H-ELL, 
    • 41103, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-7H, 
    • 41102, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-6H, 
    • 41101, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-5H, 
    • 40793, conf, Hess, GO-Seaton-156-98-0607H-3,  
  • Tuesday, April 21, 2026: 65 for the month, 65 for the quarter, 222 for the year,
    • 41790, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12G-S
    • 41789, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12H-S, 

RBN Energy:  will more pipeline capacity be needed to move Canadian barrels from the midcontinent to the Gulf Coast? Link here. Archived.

Crude oil production from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) continues to grow, and most of that growth is expected to be heavy crude oil, so pipeline companies are working on expanding capacity to move more of those barrels into the U.S. However, as most U.S. Midwest (PADD 2) refiners are already taking nearly as much WCSB heavy crude as they can, the incremental barrels coming into the U.S. will need to find their way to the Gulf Coast (PADD 3). A few projects are in the works that would move those barrels into PADD 2 waystation hubs such as Cushing, OK, and Patoka, IL, but will there be enough room on the four major pipelines — the Four Sticks noted in today’s title — that move barrels out of those two hubs to the Gulf Coast? That’s what we’ll look at in today’s RBN blog.

In Part 1 of our recent Turn Me Loose blog series we discussed the past drivers of WCSB crude oil production growth, which averaged about 170 Mb/d annually over the past 15 years, and grew by nearly 190 Mb/d last year, dwarfing WCSB demand growth that averaged 10-15 Mb/d annually. Our current forecasts are for a slower pace of production growth over the next five years — the major oil sands producers seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach while Canada’s federal and provincial governments negotiate new frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and abatements — but those plans will likely accelerate once policies have been clarified. The Alberta government wants the province’s oil production to double over time to around 8 MMb/d, and there’s plenty of resource to develop.

In Part 5, we looked at all the potential pipeline projects to move more barrels out of the WCSB, including about 980 Mb/d of new capacity into the U.S. that is either underway or proposed:

  • Enbridge has defined plans to add about 430 Mb/d of capacity into the U.S. from its Mainline and Express systems and sees additional expansion potential.
  • South Bow Corp. and Bridger Pipeline LLC have separate but apparently linked proposals for about 550 Mb/d of new capacity from Alberta to Guernsey, WY; from there, those barrels would need to move further downstream, to Cushing or elsewhere. (For more, see our 80+ page report Roundabout! Canada-To-Rockies Crude Flows Reshaping PADD 4 & Guernsey Market and subsequent webcast presentation.)

Additionally, more pipeline capacity to British Columbia on Canada’s west coast is in the works. The Canadian government is looking to expand capacity of the Trans Mountain Pipeline System — which added a new 590-Mb/d pipeline, the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX), in 2024 — by another 300 Mb/d. Plans are to expand TMX by about 90 Mb/d using drag-reducing agents (DRAs) and another 210 Mb/d by adding pumping capacity and 19 miles of new pipeline. The Alberta and Canadian governments are also working to encourage private companies to build a greenfield pipeline from Alberta to the west coast. Recent history with TMX has shown that building new pipeline to the BC coast can be extremely time-consuming and expensive.

Enbridge is moving forward on three WCSB egress projects that involve its Mainline (yellow line in Figure 1 below) and Express-Platte (orange line) systems: its Mainline Optimization 1 (MLO1) and Southern Illinois Connector projects were sanctioned late last year, while Enbridge hopes to sanction its second Mainline Optimization project (MLO2) by midyear. These projects would collectively add 430 Mb/d of pipeline capacity from the WCSB into the U.S. Enbridge has already disclosed plans to increase volumes into Cushing by about 170 Mb/d (+100 Mb/d via an expansion of Flanagan South, purple line; +70 Mb/d by utilization of spare capacity on Spearhead, pink line) and increase volumes into Patoka by about 30 Mb/d (Express-Platte expansion and 56-mile extension to Patoka), but we suspect the remaining 230 Mb/d would need to make its way south to the Gulf Coast.

Figure 1. Major Pipelines Moving WCSB Crude Oil to Cushing and Southern Illinois. Source. RBN

Ackman, Amazon, Anthropic, Anticipation -- April 21, 2026

Locator: 50575AMAZON.

South Korean stock market surges to all-time high: headline. 

Amazon: trending toward it's 52-week high.

Anthropic: only the most-talked about tech company right now.

Anticipation:

Ackman: link here. Some call this circular financing. Alternative: buy BRK.

Headline:

And, link here: