Five New Permits; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- April 30, 2026

Locator: 50677B.

WTI: $106.90. Up $7.00 today. 

Active rigs: 23.

Five new permits,  #42885 - #42890:

• Operators: Devon Energy (2); Whiting (2); Enerplus Resources;
• Fields: Foreman Butte (4), McKenzie County; Lone Tree Lake, Williams County; 
• Comments:
• Devon Energy has permits for two Albert South wells, NENE 34-151-102, 
• to be sited 1220 / 1224 FNL and 897 / 922 FEL
• Whiting her permits for two Roosevelt Federal wells, NWNE 24-150-103, 
• to be sited 478 /609 FNL and 1581 / 1590 FEL; both six-section spacing;
• Enerplus has a permit for an Opsal well, SESW 11-157-99, 
• to be sited 347 FSL and 2278 FWL; Williams County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed: 

• 41869, 190, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S614HF, Divide County;
• 41870, 739, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S516HF, Divide County;
• 41927, 351, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S512HF, Divide County;
• 41931, 351, Formentera Operations, Wildcat Hollow-16-33-PGN S618HF, Divide County;

Thoughts On Apple's Numbers Today -- March, 2026, Quarter -- Subject To Change -- Posted April 30, 2026

Locator: 50676AAPL.

Subject to change; not proofread. Typed "on the go."  

See disclaimer. 

This is for the extended family; not meant for general readership. These are early thoughts. Not ready for prime time. 

As my family surely knows, I am inappropriately exuberant about Apple. Members of my family, no doubt, are very curious what I think about Apple's earnings for the March, 2026, quarter reported today.

My thoughts apply only to those who are wondering whether to invest in AAPL after these numbers were reported.  

These numbers make it the easiest to ever answer with regard to Apple / AAPL. 

The numbers reported were somewhere between "excellent" numbers and "Goldilocks" numbers. 

My advice to any individual depends on what kind of trader / investor the individual is.

For traders hoping for a huge return within one year: these numbers are not enough to make me want to invest in AAPL. There are too many other opportunities. So, that was easy enough to answer.

However, if one is an investor with a 30-year horizon, Apple / AAPL needs to be in your portfolio if you are investing in individual stocks. I won't get into whether one should be investing in individual companies; that's another question, another discussion.

The best news: the earnings were not exciting enough to cause a surge in the price of AAPL. In fact, at the time this is being typed, AAPL is down slightly from its high earlier today and is actually "negative" for the day. 

Holy mackerel, I take that back. I just checked, 4:49 p.m. CT, and AAPL is up $9.93 / share. [Later, up around $6.50 / share.]

All of a sudden this now becomes a much more difficult question. 

Had AAPL opened flat or negative in the morning, I was going to say that I would add a significant amount of my existing AAPL holdings or open a new position in Apple. 

But now that AAPL is up $10 and if it opens up $10 tomorrow morning, I would wait. Only if AAPL pulls back to $170 would I buy AAPL shares. Clearly, if AAPL opens in the upper 170s or higher, I would not buy AAPL. 

There would be nothing wrong with buying AAPL at $180 tomorrow, but that's "your" choice. It would not be the worst thing one could do but you might question your decision over the next six months.

So, back to these being "Goldilocks" numbers. 

These are incredible numbers for the Apple company, for long-term investors, for employees, for those whose portfolio is overweighted in AAPL.

In order of importance, at least to some degree:

1. Had the earnings "blown out" expectations and had the shares surged 10%, it would be a formidable challenge for the new CEO. Wow, he would have been under a lot of pressure to perform. These are "Goldilocks" numbers for the new CEO. The numbers tell "everyone" that Apple is sound, and the new CEO, John Ternus, only needs to remain steady at the helm.

2. The iPhone was introduced in 2007. That's eighteen years ago and Apple's margins actually rose from 48.4 to 49.3 -- I don't think there's any product that's been on the market for almost two decades whose margins continue to grow. And we're not talking from 5% to 6% -- we're taking margins that approach 50% after almost twenty years. 

 3. The meme for the past dozen years is that Apple's profits are all about the iPhone (hardware/software). People who are actually paying attention know that services for Apple are becoming increasingly important, and this quarter, Apple's profits from services were actually greater than profits from the iPhone (I need to check out exactly what was being compared.) This will actually become more important if a) Apple's supply chain breaks down; and/or, b) memory prices quadruple in price as is being projected. [I might come back to this; it appears that Apple is doing an outstanding job managing their numbers, their profits.]

4.  Apple pays a dividend. It's not much but for those who have held AAPL for a long time, it adds up and for new investors, at least there's a dividend, more than what most tech companies can say.

5. AAPL has "done nothing" for the past couple of years -- absolutely flat. This simply can't go on forever. At some point, investors will get the clue bug with regard to AAPL.

6. Apple is an incredibly well-run company; no one expects this to change. If one agrees, it becomes a no-brainer for investors with 30-year horizons to have this stock in their portfolio. If I'm wrong on this, I would like to know the names of ten other companies that would make a better choice for a long-term investor.  

I could go on, but ....

Bottom line:

• traders with a short horizon (less than a. year) and looking for a quick profit or bragging rights to selecting a winner, do not buy AAPL based on today's news;
• investors with a long horizon, at least ten years and preferably 30 years, starting a new position in AAPL or adding to a position in AAPL, this is a no-brainer, although I would be watching for pull back to $170. If it doesn't pull back to $170, I might forgo APPL -- there are plenty of other options. But even at $180, ten years from now, that's going to look pretty inexpensive. 

Final thoughts:

• these are incredibly good numbers; 
• putting the whole story together, as good as these numbers are, they are still "Goldilocks" numbers;
• forget everything I said with regard to price point: ten years from now, whether you bought at $170 or $180, it's not going to matter;
• just stick to your investing rules;
• as for me, I will be adding as many shares as I can afford tomorrow.  

Again, these the blog's disclaimer: this is not meant for the general reader; it's for my extended family to let them know what I'm doing. This is not an investment site. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.

Longer version here.   

Whoo-Hoo! There's A Golf Tournament On -- I Don't Have To Watch CNBC, CNN, Or ABC News -- April 30, 2016

Locator: 50675AAPL.

After Hours -- AAPL

AAPL: turned sharply lower just before the close. Does someone know something? Was there a "tell'? Or simply profit-taking at last opportunity. Big players can take their profits; sit on those profits and wait for the inevitable pull back. BREAKING -- crossing now --  it looks like after hours, AAPL may settle slightly up after the close -- 50 cents to a buck higher. 

• beat on top and bottom
• EPS: $2.01 vs $1.95: a record for the March quarter
• revenue: $111.2 vs $109.66
• iPhone: second miss in three quarters
• services: record 
• cash hoard: $146.60 billion 
• compare with BRK with about $373 billion in cash, 4Q25, 
• slightly lower than $382 billion in 3Q25
• comment: these are not numbers that get analysts truly excited especially after all the hype; 
• appear to be within numbers being whispered about on Wall Street
• not the wild numbers that some were suggesting 
• this was definitely not a blow-out quarter for folks who really don't understand Apple
• gross margin: 49.3 vs 48.4; at the higher end of guidance for margin -- "49" handle vs "48" handle
• simply phenomenal
• greatest supply chain vs anyone else
• Tim Cook's expertise 
• increases dividend by 4% to 27 cents / share + buyback $100 billion 
• dividend: Apple actually doing something Warren Buffett forever refused to do 

Original Post 

Near the close:

BRK-B: holy mackerel! BRK is down today and the US equity markets are surging. Motley Fool is still telling investors BRK looks like a buy. Okay.  

Trump golf: 

The 2026 Cadillac Championship begins today, April 30, at Trump National Doral’s Blue Monster in Miami, featuring a $20 million purse. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +290. Early first-round leaders include Scottie Scheffler, Sahith Theegala, Billy Harman, and Cameron Young at -3.

Locator: 50675ARCHIVES.

News: 

This is going to be the most news-filled day in a long time. I may note headlines for the archives, but I have no plans to write much about anything until later this evening, once I've been able to digest everything, including the darkened shrimp taco I had for lunch, along with an Old-Fashioned. So rare do I have a cocktail, it's worth posting. LOL.

Okay, the news:

TSA is funded. My flight is fine! 

Epstein's suicide note is locked up by a judge. Whoo-hoo! This will drive The NY Times crazy.

WTI: sinking! Now, trading just above $105. It had been as high as $108.

LIV golfers: not being welcomed back by the PGA.

Blockade: NACHO. [Not a chance Hormuz opens.]

US markets: off to the races.

AAPL: reports later today. Only one more hour.

What's important for Charles III: Scotch. Trump vows to remove all tariffs on Scottish whiskey following meetings with Camille's husband.

California: Valero ends production of gasoline at the Benicia refinery northeast of San Francisco. Provided upwards of 10% of California's gasoline demand.

 

***************************
The AI Bubble

Mark has had enough: will removes Meta apps from New Mexico if state's demands are unreasonable.

Beth: SK Hyix -- planning to invest $13 billion for an advanced packaging plant in South Korea to meet rising demand for AI memory chips.

GOOG: up more than 10% today.

Earnings after hours today: eleven. Only one matters.

AAPL, whispers -- quarterly earnings, history -- 

• forecast: 
• EPS: $1.94
• revenue: $109.7 billion
• history, of note
• March quarter always the second/third best 
• June quarter always the worse
• Sept quarter always the second / third worst
• December quarter always the best
• recently
• the best quarter in 2021 reported EPS of $1.93

Idle Rambling -- The "Bubble" -- April 30, 2026

Locator: 50674BUBBLE.

By the way, before we get started: 

There's a great documentary on Peggy Guggenheim on YouTube -- I became interested in her story after reading about the Guggenheims in Malcolm Harris' book on Palo Alto --  she ultimately became, if not the richest -- practically the richest women in the world -- and she did it on her own pretty much without the Guggenheim money. 

Puts a lot of our anxiety into perspective.

In another side-bar discussion with a reader, not ready for prime time. 

The reader asked about "the AI bubble," on a day CAT explodes to the upside by 10%, gaining $80 /share because of the work it is doing for LDCs.

My reply, again not ready for prime time.  

With regard to the AI bubble setting us up for a crash, I asked the same question to Grok, ChatGPT, and Gemini.

The question (to each of the three chatbots): 

This is just a throwaway query. I'm not concerned. Doesn't affect my life at all, investing or otherwise. I'm just curious how you see it.

Looking back, there was a lot of talk comparing the crash of 1929 with the 2000 dot-com crash, but in the big scheme of things, the dot-com crash was nowhere near the crash of 1929. Now, we're talking about the AI bubble that will echo the 1929 crash. At the same point in the 2020 dot-com euphoria as we have now, were things, looking back, more problematic in 2020 or are they more problematic now?

The replies:

Grok couldn't provide an answer because it was under "heavy demand" and I don't pay for a subscription (which, by the way, speaks volumes). [I don't pay for any chatbot.]

Gemini agreed with you: we are setting ourselves up for a crash.

ChatGPT: not even close to a crash. Structurally things are so much different than either the 2000 dot-com bust or the 1929 crash. 

ChatGPT gave a much better explanation -- won't go into details. 

But I'm not a bit worried. 

The fact that Grok couldn't even answer because it didn't have enough "compute" -- as they call it -- tells me there is so much demand for AI -- I mean seriously -- Elon Musk doesn't have enough "compute" -- because too much demand. Give me a break!  

And in market share, I think Grok is about 1% with ChatGPT and Gemini sharing 90% combined. 

I'm still reading the history of Stanford University / Palo Alto / Silicon Valley by Malcolm Harris and the military relationship with AI is so incredible -- it cannot be overstated.   The Black Swan, if there is one, will be a shortage of rare earths or a shortage of fabs (in this case, storage, first -- MU -- and then CPUs (TSM -- 90%?).

The focus of Xi - Trump's visit this summer is going to be Taiwan. 

So, unless there's a Black Swan, something we didn't see coming, like a) an asteroid hitting Wall Street; b) a shortage of rare earths which really wouldn't be a Black Swan because we've known about this issue for years; and/or, c) China moving aggressively on Taiwan, which I don't see happening. 

China needs Taiwan's fabs and technology as much as we do. The worst that will happen will be a velvet glove takeover of Taiwan by China. That's how it will start: if Taiwan tries to fight it and US / Japan go to nukes to stop China, then all bets are off. 

But again, I was amazed. Grok -- denial of service -- because it was too busy or simply doesn't want to help me because I'm not a paying subscriber. That speaks volumes where we are with regard to how many Nvidia blades Elon Musk still needs to buy from Huang Jensen.

The State Dinner -- Re-Visited -- April 30, 2026

Locator: 50673BURGUM.

In another side-bar discussion with a reader, not ready for prime time. 

This is so much better than The NY Times assessment of the guest list. From earlier: 

White House dinner. 

So, who attended? Link here. Here it is. 

Wow: Doug Burgum and wife. Of the Trumps, only Barron missing.

To the reader: 

1. We have not even begun to see how big the [global] realignment will be [after the Iran War]. Folks forget that in the Mideast, Persia is the outcast -- and made worse by the revolution in 1979. Leaving OPEC, UAE will need friends and the only friend it will have is the US. Their relationship will be very, very quiet. 

2. The royal / state dinner was probably the dinner of Trump's four-year term. I'm trying to think of someone more "important" than Charles and Camilla showing up in Washington.

Xi and/or Putin would be more important from a strategic / military / diplomatic point of view, but from a purely TMZ / Vanity Fair / social point of view, the British monarchy beats them all. Interestingly, the Brits are pretty much washed up as force to be reckoned with. 

Even Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda has more cajones than either the PM or the King. And probably more ships. 

2a. Only 100 people were on the guest list. Not one Democrat and not one left-leaning reporter was there. Six (seven, depending how you count) were from Fox, including Gutfeld! That was a huge embarrassment to legacy television news.  This was the White House Correspondents' Dinner that wasn't. LOL. Except for four (?) Brits, not one Brit was invited. It was all Trump's most important friends. If you were on that list you are never going to jail. For anything. Six billionaires -- including Ellison, his closest friend, I think. But then this: Tim Cook. I ran through the list fairly quickly so I probably missed others, but Tim Cook stood out .... not even the CEO of Intel was there. Tim Cook. Let that sink in.

2b. These were the folks from Silicon Valley: Tim Cook, Jeff Bezos, Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff: CEO of Salesforce, attending with Lynne Benioff, Marc Andreessen, Ruth Porat: President and CIO of Alphabet and Google; and Ellison, as mentioned. That's a pretty select group. No room for Musk? Altman? 

2c. CEO of Archer Daniels Midland. Only one reason why he was there.

2d. But look at this: all the Trumps were there except Barron which meant of the 100 or so guests, 10% were Trumps.

2e. I think they said six of the Supreme Court justices were there. Not one from the left.

2f. Maybe half a dozen US Senators; most from western states, or deeply conservative states. None from Texas? 

2g. Kraft (NFL, Patriots); Rory McIlroy! Trump likes winners.

2h. Hegseth and Caine, of course. 

2i. The four astronauts and their significant others would have totaled eight -- would have overshadowed the Trumps, and at the end of the day, walk-on-baggage. The Artemis II mission, not the significant others.

2j. But this is what really caught my attention: the total number of cabinet-level appointees often exceeds 20, including roles like the Chief of Staff and EPA Administrator. Of those 20, only a handful were invited. Among the handful: Doug Burgum! He easily could have been left out and no one would have noticed. [Apparently he's not a billionaire but he's considered to be in the "billionaire class." Forbes has him at $100 million or thereabouts.] I don't think Litnick was there. So, I find it amazing that Doug Burgum was there. No one from intelligence services? 

Movers and shakers: Rory, Kraft, a few others are NOT political movers and shakers. They were there for other reasons. But Doug Burgum was there. Wright, Energy, was not there. That speaks volumes -- Energy not there; Commerce not there but Interior was there. Why? 

I think folks underestimate the importance of a strong secretary at Interior. 

Under Biden: 

Deb Haaland, first Native American to serve as a Cabinet secretary; DEI.
Obama: Sally Jewell (CEO of REI); Ken Salazar (Colorado Senator)
Clinton: Babbitt, governor of Arizona.

Power politics. It will be a different list of attendees for Xi and/or Putin. You know, this state dinner now completely overshadows the WHCD "re-do." Assuming it is re-done. A lot of folks will say that box was checked off.  

Trump Lake? April 30, 2026

Locator: 50672LITHUANIA.

Not ready for prime time. Sidebar e-mail with reader: 

I am fascinated by what is happening in the Gulf. Dynamics are huge. UAE leaving OPEC is huge. OPEC+ includes Russia so any country in the  Mideast leaving OPEC is a huge blow to Russia's plans in the Gulf. Russia has no a/c carrier groups (maybe one) as far as I know.  

Tea leaves: Trump / Putin are going to make a huge announcement, tying US troops in Germany, NATO, and Ukraine. Will also affect relationships in the Mideast. Trump could easily move those troops in Germany to any American site in the Mideast. 

Just after sending that, this over at x: Lithuania will join a US-led naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz. Once the ball starts rolling, it will gain speed/momentum. Lithuanian looks to embarrass King Charles III -- apparently doesn't even have navy any more. 

 

Back to UAE. One may want to take some time exploring the map of UAE. Right at the exit point of the strait directly across from Iran: Ras Al Khaimah. 

 The last of the Trucial States to join the newly independent United Arab Emirates, on 10 February 1972, Ras Al Khaimah, under the leadership of Sheikh Saqr bin Mohammad Al Qasimi, joined the United Arab Emirates following the Iranian seizure of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs.

Truly Mind-Boggling -- Colossus -- Update -- April 30, 2026

Locator: 50671CAT.

Moments ago I posted this:

LDC power: an excerpt from yesterday's RBN Energy blog -- link here, paywall; link here, blog; link here, archived; link here, Monarch; link here, Colossus.

Sites that opt for gas-fired generation have several paths they can pursue. Combined-cycle turbines can be the most efficient fit, especially at facilities that require high levels of steady power generation, but they can take years to secure thanks to high demand and well-understood supply-chain issues. 

Single-cycle turbines appear to be the most popular short-term fix, while reciprocating engines can be easier to obtain and deploy, while also being purpose-built for AI workloads. They are a major part of Nscale’s strategy for the Monarch campus noted above. A combination of solutions may be the best path forward at some sites. Truck-mounted gas turbines from VoltaGrid and reciprocating engines were deployed by xAI to get its 100,000-GPU Colossus facility in Memphis, TN, up and running in just four months.

Then I linked this: 

So, then I asked this: 

Musk's Colossus in Memphis, phase 1, was 100,000 Nvidia GPUs. xAI said it planned to expand Colossus to include one million GPUs. Any update? 

And this was the reply, again, bespoke journalism:

Then this, in light of CAT's earnings report today: Musk's Colossus in Memphis. Was CAT (Caterpillar) involved in any of the construction of Colossus?

WTI Falls! Now Below $105 -- April 30, 2026

Locator: 50670B.

Trump Lake: everything suggests CENTCOM will leave one a/c group in the Persian Gulf for a long, long time. The Dems will end that at their own peril. Is there any port in/near the Persian Gulf -- Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, UAE -- that could host an American a/c carrier?

Weekly unemployment figures: incredibly good. Trump won't get any mention. Expected: 213,000. Actual: 189,000. But the real story is how few -- in the big scheme of things -- actually file for unemployment (first time filing) -- with all the negative stories coming out of  The NYT and Washington, DC.  

LDC power: an excerpt from yesterday's RBN Energy blog -- link here, paywall; link here, blog; link here, archived; link here, Monarch; link here, Colossus.

Sites that opt for gas-fired generation have several paths they can pursue. Combined-cycle turbines can be the most efficient fit, especially at facilities that require high levels of steady power generation, but they can take years to secure thanks to high demand and well-understood supply-chain issues. 

Single-cycle turbines appear to be the most popular short-term fix, while reciprocating engines can be easier to obtain and deploy, while also being purpose-built for AI workloads. They are a major part of Nscale’s strategy for the Monarch campus noted above. A combination of solutions may be the best path forward at some sites. Truck-mounted gas turbines from VoltaGrid and reciprocating engines were deployed by xAI to get its 100,000-GPU Colossus facility in Memphis, TN, up and running in just four months.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $104.60.

New wells reporting: 

• Friday, May 1, 2026: 6 for the month, 106 for the quarter, 263 for the year,  
• 42204, conf, Silver Hill Energy, Texas E 158-92-8-20-3MBHX, 
• 42104, conf, Hunt Oil, Meyer 155-90-31-30H-3,
• 42103, conf, Hunt Oil, Burke 155-90-36-25H-2,
• 41644, conf, Hess, EN-Rohde-157-94-3625H-3,
• 41613, conf, BR, Sivertson 6H, 
• 40960, conf, Hess, EN-Rohde-157-94-3625H-2, 
• Thursday, April 30, 2026: 100 for the month, 100 for the quarter, 257 for the year,  
• None.

RBN Energy: US and European refineries thriving so far, but Asian ones suffer. Link here. Archived. 

It’s been eight weeks since the steady flow of crude oil and refined product tankers out of the Persian Gulf ended, and the impacts of the still-simmering U.S.-Iran conflict on refineries and product suppliers in the U.S., Europe and the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region are becoming clearer. For many refineries on both sides of the Atlantic, their relatively minor reliance on Middle East crude and the higher prices they are now receiving for their gasoline, diesel and (especially) jet fuel put them in a great spot, at least for now. It’s much different for refineries in many Asian countries, however. Heavily dependent on Persian Gulf oil, they are drawing down their reserves, scrambling for replacements, and hoping the Strait of Hormuz is reliably reopened very soon. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the current state of refining and refined product supply in the U.S., Europe and APAC.

We should emphasize up front that you can’t make broad generalizations about all U.S. refineries or all refineries in Europe or Asia. Sure, they can be put into categories or groups — for example, complex refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) or “teapots” in China — but each refinery is ultimately unique, with its own location, set of refining/processing equipment, crude slate, and approach to feedstock contracting and refined product sales, among other things. That said, many refineries in each of the three areas we’re focusing on (the U.S., Europe and Asia) are facing similar situations a couple of months into the Iran conflict. As for refined product supply, the U.S. is just fine for the foreseeable future, but Europe and Asia already are struggling and things could get far worse in the coming weeks.

We’ll start with the U.S., whose refineries have been relying less and less on Persian Gulf crude oil in recent years. As we discussed a couple of weeks ago in How Am I Supposed to Live Without You, total oil imports from the region averaged only 491 Mb/d in 2025, down from a peak of more than 2.6 MMb/d in 2001 and the lowest level since 1985. PADD 3 (Gulf Coast; middle chart in Figure 1 below), the only U.S. region to export vast amounts of refined products, imported only 176 Mb/d of Persian Gulf crude last year, less than half of what it did in 2020. That mostly heavier, higher-sulfur oil is readily replaceable by a mix of light shale oil, medium crude from the offshore U.S. Gulf, and heavy oil from Canada or Venezuela. Of note, more than two-thirds of the PADD 3 imports in Q4 2025 were Saudi imports going to Aramco’s wholly-owned Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, TX.

Figure 1. Imports of Persian Gulf Crude Oil by PADD, 2020-25. Source: EIA

 

CAT: Holy Mackerel — April 30, 2026

Locator: 50669BURGUM.
Locator: 50669CAT.

Link here.

CAT: Pre-market: shares up $40? Later: up $48. [During the trading day, I believe CAT was up almost $90.]

BRKB continues to fall. Amazing.

David Allan Coe dead at 86.

White House dinner. 

So, who attended? Link here. Here it is. 

Wow: Doug Burgum and wife. I genuinely feel sad for those attending “solo.” Several attended “alone.” Of the Trumps, only Barron missing.

COP: top line beat, but other numbers not impressive. Shares down.

France: 

France’s third Multiannual Energy Programme (PPE3) marks a clear policy shift, reaffirming nuclear power as the backbone of the electricity system while significantly moderating the expansion of wind and solar generation. The roughly 20% cut in 2035 renewables targets weakens growth visibility for renewable developers, while the nuclear new‑build and life‑extension programme establishes a long‑dated, state‑backed investment pipeline.

 

Clearing The Desk After Hours -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50668ARCHIVES.

Ticker: Samsung -- when Buffett was buying all those Japanese companies, why wasn't he buying Samsung? Obviously he and Munger not reading the "right" books. 

Samsung: link here -- 48-fold jump in profit. 

Jay Powell: legacy lost. Link here. As irrelevant as ever.

Amazon: discussing a re-boot of The Apprentice with Donald Trump as the host. 

PSX: demand destruction? We haven't seen (much) demand destruction; maybe 1%. That's not demand destruction; that business activity.

NASDAQ 100 QQQ: at all-time highs after hours. 

$25 billion spent in Iran? How to make up some of that cash? Reduce troop presence in Germany. Could probably pull out most of the US Army; leave air bases. Trump considering. 

The dots are starting to connect. Trump just got off the phone with Putin discussing ceasefire. Quid pro quo.

Storage: again. Amazon says storage cost is exploding. Wanna see how bad it is. Go down to Walmart or visit Amazon on line and see how much it costs for 1 terabyte of memory. This is not rocket science. As an investor you have three choice: Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix.

Daily Activity Report Had Not Posted By 8:00 P.M. CT -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50667B.

Never stop reading: 

• AI reading program -- current and past six months (pulled forward from summer reading program, with additions):

• Alan Turing: The Enigma, Andrew Hodges, c. 1983.
• The Innovators: How A Group of Hackers, Geniuses, and Geeks Created the Digital Revolution, Walter Isaacson, c. 2015.  
• The Story of Semiconductors, John Orton, c. 2004. Incredible resource.  Link here.
• The Perfectionists: How Precision Engineers Created The Modern World, Simon Winchester, c. 2018. 
• Chip War: The Fight For the World's Most Critical Technology, Chris Miller, c. 2022.
• Why Machines Learn: The Elegant Math Behind Modern AI, Anil Ananthaswamy, c. July 16, 2024, purchased March 18, 2026. Bought at Powell's Book at the Portland, OR, airport.
• Palo Alto: A History of California, Capitalism, and The World, Malcolm Harris, c. 2023.

Right now I'm reading Palo Alto by Malcolm Harris. One might be able to read chapters in any order one wants. I'm not sure it's the first book I would read on the subject of semiconductors, but once you get a good feeling of what semiconductors are; how they were "discovered" and developed; the history; then maybe it would be okay to start. This had to have been a labor of love for Harris. 

*****************************
US Weekly Oil Stats

This is going to get more interesting as we go forward. 

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $106.90. Up $7.00 today. 

Active rigs: 23.

Four new permits,  #42881 - #42884

• 42881, loc, Devon Energy, Albert North 27-28-29 1H, Foreman Butte, 
• 42882, loc, Devon Energy, Albert North 34-33-32 3H, Foreman Butte, 
• 42883, loc, Devon Energy, Albert South 27-28-29 4H, Foreman Butte, 
• 42884, loc, Devon Energy, Albert South 34-33-32 4H, Foreman Butte, 

Three permits renewed:

• BR: three Demicks Lake permits, Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County;

Thee producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 41549, n/d, XTO, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11D, Williams County;
• 51550, n/d, XTO, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11E, Williams County;
• 41261, n/d, BR, Tilton Diamond Forest 2A-ULW-R, Dunn County;

Politics -- NY Times -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50666MARKET.

Why does one get the feeling "no one" is listening? 

Later

Beth: 

Shay:

Early Notes 

AI: going forward, it's --

• CPUs: AMD, INTC, NVDA
• accelerators
• GPUs: NVDA
• TPUs / NPUs / others: AVGO, QCOM, 
• Storage: MU, Samsung, SK Hynix

Ford: 

• EPS: beats
• after hours up 5%; up 64 cents

Big tech after hours: looks like all the attention is on AMZN.

• META is having the worse day, MSFT the best
• META is still burning cash on AR/VR 

• Alphabet:
• looks like it will finish about 1.5% up in extend hours
• increases dividend by 5% 

• Amazon:
• +/- one percent in the after hours; looks like it will finish 4% down extended hours
• EPS: $2.78 vs $1.64 
• operating income guidance in line 

• META:
• looks like it will finish 6% down in extended hours

• Microsoft:
• up 3% after results are out.
• up $7.54 

BRKB: down half a percent today;

*************************************
Politics 

The New York Times is aghast with today's US Supreme Court ruling.

But it wasn't even close: 6 - 3.  

A similar case out of Alabama is still pending. 

*********************
The Movie Page

On days like this, I wonder what became of you. Wow.  

I graduated from high school, 1969.

Link here. 

WTI Surges Seven Percent Overnight / Midday -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50665WTI.

An aside: most dissents in his tenure today (need to fact check) but no way was Jay Powell going to give Trump a rate cut. We'll get rate cuts "in spades" as my dad used to say, before the end of the year. If not, a recession.  

The blockade / price of oil: at some point Trump might get the European attention he wants / would have appreciated six weeks ago.

We would never have gotten to this point had it been an allied effort from the beginning.  Iran may never have backed away from nuclear, but they would have thought twice about blockading the strait. 

It didn't / doesn't help the "support" the Iranians feel they are getting from Americans on social media. The Iranian mantra: "if we can only hold out for a few more weeks." 

Every day the strait remains closed, the more irrelevant Qatar (LNG) and Saudi Arabia (oil) become.

 *******************************
The Music Page

I still can't believe The New York Times included Lana Del Rey among the top 30 living songwriters. Wouldn't it have been a hoot had they included Joan Baez?

Wow, what incredible voices. From 2019.  

 Link here.

Flashback -- Rhein-Main Air Base, Germay -- Czech Air Force -- USAF, 1994 -- Posted April 29, 2026

Locator: 50664USAF.

Our unit out of Rhein-Main Air Base, Germany, hosted a sister unit from the Czech Republic Air Force back in 1994 (need to confirm). 

Patches and labels from the visit.

So, what it all means.

The liqueur, the "Beton" cocktail from Karlovy Vary: most famous spa town in Czech. 

 The beer:

The patch: Czech Republic Air Force.

The First Mixed Transport Regiment.

• smisena: mixed
• dropavni: transport
• letecki: air -- certainly makes me think of "Ledecky" -- one wonders -- 
• pluk: regiment

Link here. 

This is what I think of when I think of Karlovy Vary: link here.

It was an incredible thirty years!

• In those thirty years in "Europe":
• as far east as Moscow
• as far west as Lajes, Azores, 1,000 miles off Portugal, in the Atlantic
• as far south as Senegal / The Gambia, Africa
• as far southeast as Iraq, Israel, Tarsus (Turkey) 
• throughout the Mediterranean
• as far north as Edinburgh, Scotland, and Bodo, Norway
• so many times to Paris our kids finally said no mas
• Outside of Europe:
• Hokkaido, Japan; Okinawa
• Brazil, Ecuador, Venezuela, the Galapagos 
• Stateside
• it's possible the only state I have not seen is Vermont (honestly can't remember) 
• Australia: 
• the USAF asked me to go, but I had no desire by that time, so never saw Australia
• it was personal, very, very personal  

Flashback -- USAF, Africa, March, 1994

Locator: 50663USAF.

Going through some old albums (and we have scores of albums and journals and diaries), it appears that the best years of our lives as a family were 1992 - 1994, Rhein-Main Air Base, Germany, and Incirlik Air Base, Germany. And that's considering our previous nine years in England (outside London) and Bitburg Air Base, Germany, the premier USAF fighter base at the time. Not just Europe, but the entire globe. It was amazing. 

But, back to this photo.  

The photo is dated March, 1994. 

I have no idea where this is. Well, that's not quite true. It was obviously taken at a base base location, not "classified," but it might as well have been. 

The photo is not labeled, but putting "two and two together," as they say, this was taken in Banjul, The Gambia. For me, this was my "heart of darkness." LOL. We (a crew of several PJ (pararescue jumpers), loadmaster, engineer, right-seater, left seater, and a flight surgeon) were there probably a week. A week for sure but possibly longer. It depended on whether the space launched on time.

We were flying out of Rhein-Main Air Base, Germany, in 1994, in support of Space Shuttle launch missions. There were four abort sites for the Space Shuttle: RAF Mildenhall, England; Rota Naval Station, Spain; an airstrip near Casablanca, Morocco; and, Banjul, The Gambia. 

Using AI, previously unavailable:

 The C-130:

Personal Electricity Bill -- Texas -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50662ELECTRICITY.

Our previous electricity bill was $137.33. This was from March, 2026.

Our only utility bill is electricity, for a small one-bedroom-one-bath-one-den/office apartment in north Texas. We have no natural gas. This is our total energy bill for the apartment.

With all fees, taxes, etc., we're paying 19.5 cents / kWh (2026). One year ago we were paying 17.0 cents / kWh (2025).

 

PSA -- Clarifying The New Rules Regarding Powerpacks On Airlines -- Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Locator: 50661BOOM.

One can carry unlimited number of power cables on airplanes, but only two power packs because they contain lithium batteries. 

 

And With This, I'll Be Off The Net For Awhile -- Let This Sink In -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50660RICE.

Link here. 

Holy Mackerel! Is This Correct? PSX -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50659PSX.

Dividend:

• February, last year: $1.15
• February, this year: $1.27 -- a 10% increase

Link here.

 

Even Elizabeth Warren Will Like This -- Indexing Capital Gains Tax To Inflation -- April 29, 2028

Locator: 50658TAXES.

Another example of bespoke journalism.  

Top Thirty Living American Songwriters -- The New York Times -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50657MUSIC.

Tag: song writers songwriters. 

Link here.  

As long as these made the list -- top 30 -- I can't complain:

• Willie Nelson
• Dolly Parton 
• Lana Del Rey -- wow -- I am surprised the Times recognized her
• Carole King

Years ago I was on a cross-country drive from somewhere in the Dakotas -- can't remember if I reached Williston that trip or not, I must have, because by the time I got to Rapid City, I couldn't stand it any more. 

I needed a Lana Del Rey CD for the long trip through SD, NE, KS, and Oklahoma (actually Oklahoma is wonderful -- after Nebraska and Kansas -- okay Kansas isn't so bad either -- in the big scheme of things, it's Nebraska that drags on forever) -- where was I? Oh, that's right, I needed a Lana Del Rey CD. I stopped at the Target on I-90, exit 60 / 61, and picked up Born To Die, 2012. 

Amazing, the CD has its own wiki entry. Link here.  

I completely forgot que "Summertime Sadness" was on that album. Wow. What an album.

Not on that album but perfect for today: link here. 

NACHO -- Not A Chance Hormuz Opens -- April 29, 2026

Locator: 50656NACHO.

Iran: President Trump's most recent tweet suggests a "one-two punch" coming. Watch the pizza deliveries this weekend. 

Iran: no one will admit it, but had this been a unified global effort when Israel and the US decided to end Iran's nuclear ambitions two months ago, this conflict would have ended long ago. Probably in the first month, maybe sooner.

Hezbollah: Israel continues to attrit the Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon. 

Total Energies: link here. The WSJ. Increases dividend 6%. Will resume share repurchases. Earnings windfall. I love that word. Windfall. As long as it's not followed by "profits tax." Big gain: not in the actual commodity but in trading. Simply working smarter, not harder. New profit doubled q/q: $5.81 billion and that beat the $5.21 estimate. Don't often see that in stodgy oil companies.

Facilities representing around 15% of TotalEnergies’ total oil and gas production are shut down due to the conflict in the Middle East. It has halted production in Qatar, Iraq and offshore the United Arab Emirates as energy infrastructure in the region has come under attack.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $103.30; up 3.37%; up $3.37. 

Later: WTI up almost $4.00. No one seems worried. Business page headlines hardly mention it. The Fed gets the most attention. Wow. 

Later; ahhhh .... there it is -- over $4.00 --  8:55 a.m. ET -- April 29, 2026 -- 

New wells reporting:

• Thursday, April 30, 2026: 100 for the month, 100 for the quarter, 257 for the year,  
• None.
• Wednesday, April 29, 2026: 100 for the month, 100 for the quarter, 257 for the year, 

• 42080, conf, XTO, GBU Hera 33X-7F, 
• 42079, conf, XTO, GBU Hera 33X-7A,
• 41734, conf, Hess, EN-Hilleren-157-94-1336H-2, 
• 41614, conf, BR, Sivertson 6I, 
• 41360, conf, Devon Energy, Marvin 27-34 3H, 

RBN Energy: with speed to market the #1 priority, data center developers put the pedal tot he metal. Link here. Archived.

Nearly every energy-related discussion these days, regardless of the particular topic, eventually turns to data centers and AI, where speed to market has emerged as the major focus. As one panelist noted during March’s CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, of a data center developer’s top priorities, the first three are now speed, speed and speed, with cost and other factors coming next. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how developers must solve the issues around permitting, siting, offtake agreements and — most importantly — power generation in the race to get their data centers online as soon as possible. We’ll also preview our newest Drill Down Report on the data center buildout.

The substantial growth in data center capacity has been driven largely by the increasing demand for AI and what are generally classified as AI-powered tasks, such as speech recognition, image recognition, predictive analytics, personalized diagnostics/treatments, logistics/mapping applications, fraud detection and generative AI (see Smarter Than You). The rapid rise in generative AI is particularly noteworthy, catalyzed by the sudden success of ChatGPT and a few other AI chatbots riding that wave, including Claude, Copilot and Perplexity. The revolutionary potential of AI is hard to overstate and, correspondingly, so too is the potential money to be made. That has kicked off an all-out, no-holds-barred race to win market share. With so much competition in the market and the speed at which the machinery is advancing, developers have come to believe that getting their data center capacity online as quickly as possible is essential.

The first set of challenges around a data center’s development is fairly straightforward, if not always easy to navigate. Being able to secure the needed amount of electricity to power a site is the dominant issue (much more on that below) but there are many other factors to consider, including obtaining the available land, the ability to connect to fiber-optic networks, assessing weather and climate risks, local transportation and workforce issues, and access to water for cooling. Our new report breaks down the leading seven hubs for data center development — Arizona, California, Georgia, Illinois, Ohio, Texas and Virginia — and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses in several categories (see Figure 1 below), including market maturity, the regulatory environment and power grid capacity. (The report also does the same for four states that are emerging as hubs — Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania.)

Figure 1. Relative Strengths and Weaknesses of Key Data Center States. Source: RBN

 

Anticipation -- April 28, 2026

Locator: 50655ARCHIVES.

"Trump Tells Aides To Prepare For Extended Blockade Of Iran" -- TWSJ -- April 28, 2026

Locator: 50654EPICFURY.

Wow, wow, wow.

The following was posted at 8:12 a.m. early this morning. Link here. 

Everything suggested to me that Trump had decided the best course of action was an extended blockade. We'll come back to that later -- the point for now is that at 8:00 a.m. this morning I suggested that Trump was in this for the long haul -- an extended blockade.

Now, this evening, The WSJ is reporting exactly that. Link here. This is the lead story in the print edition.

It will be fascinating to watch this play out. I think there's more to the story that has not been told. Absolutely brilliant.

This is not just about Iran.

This is key: 

Every day the strait is closed, the more irrelevant Qatar (natural gas) and Saudi Arabia (oil) become.

MAGA. 

Monroe Doctrine.

Western Hemisphere. 

See this post. 

See this post. 

*****************************
Movie Night

Dial M for Murder. TCM tonight. 

I bet I've seen this film a dozen times. One of the absolute best movies ever. Pure entertainment.  

On a different level than Casablanca, The Third Man, Citizen Kane but in its genre, Dial M For Murder might be the best!

I can watch it every few months. Wow. 

I simply love this movie. 

In addition to everything else, Hitchcock's filmography is absolutely superb. And so Hitchcockian. 

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Locator: 50653B.

Three pipelines to buy in April, link here:

• EPD: great distribution record and a high yield;
• ENB: an impressive dividend streak, an attractive yield, and offers unique diversification;
• Enerty Transfer: high yield, focused on turning partnerships into a more reliable income investment.

GM earnings: 

Windmills Of Your Mind: link here.

Talk about a gorgeous day -- poolside.  

Yesterday we went swimming for the first time this season, but today the water is a bit too cold to get into. But still, it's 87° on the deck. Overcast. Tornado warnings for next six hours or so. It was supposed to thunderstorm, but it didn't. 

What amazes me and should amaze everyone: it's not the fact that there is water on this earth but that there is so much water! That's what is amazing; not that there is water on the earth but that there's so much water on the earth.

Later, at 7:00 p.m. CT, after the storm that wasn't, I returned to the deck. I think the thermometer said 79° but can't remember for sure. Regardless, it is/was a beautiful night.

Poolside reading:

• The History of Palo Alto, Malcolm Harris;
• The Jewish Annotated New Testament. 

OpenAI to partner with AWS? Link here. 

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $99.93. Dropped back from $100.50 earlier in the day. 

Active rigs: 23.

Five new permits, #42875 - #42879, inclusive:

• Operators: XTO (3); Devon Energy (2);
• Fields: Lost Bridge, Dunn County; Foreman Butte, McKenzie County;
• Comments:
• XTO has permits for three more Nautilus Federal wells, NWSE 19-148-96, 
• to be sited 2492 / 2551 FSL and 2301 / 2310 FSL;
• Devon Energy has permits for two Albert wells, one running south, one running north, NENE 34-151-102; and one NESE 27-151-102; 
• one is to be sited in section 34, 1216 FL and 873 FEL; 
• the other is to be sited in section 27, 1669 FSL and 417 FEL.

Five permits renewed:

• Enerplus (4): Madrigal, Quartet, Opera and Rhythm, SWSE 18-148-93;
• Oasis: Aune Federal, Eightmile, Williams County.

Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 34291, 3,405, BR, State Dodge...McKenzie;
• 34292, 3,171, BR, State Dodge...McKenzie;
• 39520, 2,889, BR, State Dodge...McKenzie;
• 39521, 2,163, BR, State Dodge...McKenzie;
• 39522, 4,611, BR, Rader Dodge...Camel Butte, McKenzie;
• 41064, 1,407, BR, Tilton.....McKenzie;
• 41065, 1,491, BR, Tilton.....McKenzie;
• 41068, 1,698, BR, Tilton.....McKenzie;
• 41069, 432, BR, Tilton Tee.....McKenzie;